Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Oct 2013

Julio Jones Reportedly Done For Season

Both the Atlanta-Journal Constitution and Jay Glazer are reporting that Falcons wideout Julio Jones will miss the rest of the season with a foot injury. The Falcons are expected to address this at a 2:30 ET press conference.

The regression fairy, she is not kind.

Posted by: Rivers McCown on 08 Oct 2013

31 comments, Last at 10 Oct 2013, 12:27pm by QCIC


by Phyrre56 :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:32pm

I feel a great disturbance in Fantasy Football, as if millions of players cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

by iron_greg :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 4:33pm

I am one of those. ugh.

On the plus side, i can now start giving away stars to fish for keepers for next year.

by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:33pm

Yeah, and Catherine the Great enjoyed the company of men.

by Sisyphus :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:38pm

Well stick a fork in them they are done. The Falcons definately had an uphill battle going into the season to be a sucessful as last year. The addition of Jackson was an upgrade but the defense certainly did not get better and they had not really managed to improve the pass rush. Still with Jones, White, and Gonzo plus Jackson their offense figured to be formidable. Of course inuries have pretty much killed that prospect. Jones however is perhaps the key piece since defending him opens up everybody else for underneath opportunities.

by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:38pm

We may look back at that failed 4th down against San Francisco as the closest the Falcons ever get.

Sure, that seems pessimistic, but the Falcons really need a lot of these young guys to step up the next few years. They seem to have tried to rebuild in advance for 2015-2017. It could work, but last year was such a missed opportunity.

by iron_greg :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 4:36pm

On the contrary, its clear that the Falcons built for 2012 and 2013.

That nearly worked last year and it backfired this year. Its a valid strategy, but carries high downside and imo is not the recommended path (not that I'm an expert but building for every year contention makes more sense to me).

The Falcons could be just as bad in 2014 at this rate. SJAX and Roddy are aging and fading fast. TG will be done. Julio will probably come back but now has a foot trend.

feel for them and their fans but thats the price to be paid for aggressively moving up in drafts.

by sundown (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 6:15pm

Looks like they did all they could to try and win this year. They'll have to go through major turnover in many key positions prior to 2015.

by Peregrine :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:41pm


BTW, I didn't read the FO 2013 chapter on the Falcons, so I don't know how much adverse injury expectations were factored into your prediction. We have been relatively lucky in terms of injuries in recent years, but this season it's all coming back in spades. But it would be polite to acknowledge the impact of a rash of injuries even as you pat yourselves on the back for predicting a regression. Injuries are a primary reason we're losing the close games we won in the past.

For what it's worth, I expected this year to be a downer, but this is taking it a bit far.

by Spleen (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:44pm

That hurts, but they STILL have Roddy White and Tony flippin' G. Ought to be able to score points with those two.

by Peregrine :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:51pm

Roddy has been carrying a sprained ankle since preseason, which is why he's been so ineffective, and word is he hurt his hamstring last night. Wasn't on the field for the final drive.

I feel bad for Gonzo and Matt Ryan. Gonzo because this is an awful fiasco to play through at the end of a career, and Ryan because he's going to get pummeled behind this OL.

by RickD :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:01pm

I feel bad for Gonzo because he's been such a great player for so long and it's a shame that the rest of the team is collapsing for his coda.

Don't feel quite as bad for Matt Ryan. That's life in the NFL.

by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 1:58pm

Roddy White's been gimpy all year, and the WR cupboard is pretty dang bare in Atlanta. Their offensive line isn't good, Stephen Jackson is already hurt, the defense can't stop people--it's going to be a rough year.

by Peregrine :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:09pm

Bucs in Atlanta in two weeks. Don't be upset if you win, ok?

Of the three key figures in the Falcon revival of the past five years - Dimitroff, Smith, Ryan - I think Dimitroff has actually done the worst job. The cupboard is bare in a lot of places despite spending a fair number of draft picks and cash. The OL is a disaster, the DL is crazy inconsistent, the secondary is S O F T, and we must have at this moment the worst LB corps in the league. Ryan and the skill guys covered up a lot of sins last season, but they can't carry the team this year.

I expect we'll fight to the end, feebly punching at whoever is dumb enough to let us hit back. I do expect Smith would be back in 2014 too... hopefully with about a dozen big, violent circus freaks added to the roster.

by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:22pm

It has seemed to me for a long time that the Falcons' management, in regard to their defense, was coasting on the free agent signing of Jon Abraham. Did they think they wee going to keep him on the roster, and get good production from him, until he was 40?

by Jon Goldman (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:42pm

The Giants have, bar none, the worst LB Corps in the league. The Falcons aare bad, but not that bad.

by Peregrine :: Wed, 10/09/2013 - 9:49am

I'll show you mine if you show me yours.

For the Monday night game, the Falcons LB corps consisted of...

Stephen Nicholas - the sole active LB who was on the team last year, but he'd been demoted and was expected to be a reserve this season

Joplo Bartu - undrafted rookie from Texas State. Can run and might get better. He looks like he's 12 years old, btw.

Paul Worrilow - undrafted rookie from Delaware. Might get better.

Omar Gaither - former Eagle, street free agent signed a couple weeks ago.

Jamar Cheney - former Eagle, street free agent signed a couple weeks ago.

Is the Giants LB unit really worse than that?

by Anonymous49 (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:39pm

Good one.

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 2:44pm


And given the results so far this year, so much for the NFC being the deeper conference.

Looks like either SEA or SF will win the West, I think GB is still the best team in the North, NO will run away with the South, and by NFL rules, somebody will have to win the East. That leaves DET, CHI, and maybe ARI fighting over the #6 seed. Is there anyone else left who would realistically still be alive for the playoffs past week 12 or so?

by Perfundle :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:02pm

Ehh, you can't count out teams this early. Who saw Minnesota's push to make the playoffs last year, or Washington's? There are too many awful defenses in the NFC for all of them to be dismissed so quickly. I can see any of Dallas, Philadelphia or Washington challenge for a wild-card spot.

by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:04pm

8-8, or even 7-9 again, may well get the #6 seed, and there are a lot of teams capable of that, which also potentially gets all the fans checking way down the list of tiebreakers.

by dmstorm22 :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:10pm

I think the Lions/Bears are the most likely #6 seed. What could keep a lot of teams in it is that NFC East race. If the Redskins beat Dallas on Sunday, then we could have the 3-3 Eagles in 1st, with the 2-3 Redskins and 2-4 Cowboys right behind. That race could be like the 2010 NFC West, except since its all major media markets, we'll have to see those division games on primetime.

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:15pm

"8-8, or even 7-9 again, may well get the #6 seed"

7-9 was a division winner (Seahawks in 2010), and may happen again in the east. So far, the nadir for wilcard spots has been 8-8.

I'm not making a definitive statement about counting anybody out, just speculating about what's most likely to happen. I'm interested to see what the updated playoff odds look like this week.

by Arkaein :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:20pm

I think it's a bit more likely that an 8-8 or worse team wins the NFC East, but that the Wild Card teams both manage 9 wins or better.

There are currently 6 teams in the NFC with winning records, plus GB at 2-2. That makes 4 teams ahead of Philly (2nd place in the NFC East) for the 2 Wild Card spots, with St Louis tied with Philly at 2-3.

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:28pm

"Wild Card teams both manage 9 wins or better."

Well the #5 seed will be either be the Niners or the Seahawks, and both of them are likely to be comfortably double-digits in wins. As for the #6 seed, I could easily envision the Lions and Bears both going 8-8, and a tie-breaker deciding who gets in.

Of course, like every season, injuries and improbably late-season runs will cause something to happen that would seem crazy to us now.

by Will Allen :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:44pm

The list known as "NFC teams which can get to 8 wins while not winning their division" is really pretty long. Yeah, I think the Lions and Bears have the best chance, but there really aren't that many teams I'd totally count out.

by N8- (not verified) :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:28pm

So those commercials about perfecting Julio's touchdown dance...

by MilkmanDanimal :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 4:38pm

One can assume that, with all his free time, he should have a simply spectacular TD dance next year.

by TomC :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 3:54pm

When did this happen? He was in on the last TD drive and didn't look gimpy...

by tuluse :: Tue, 10/08/2013 - 5:00pm

I can only guess that adrenaline was keeping him going.

by QCIC (not verified) :: Thu, 10/10/2013 - 12:27pm

Sometimes injuries hurt a lot worse the day after. I just hurt my groin rock climbing two weeks ago. That night it was sore but fine. Then at hockey the next day it was more sore. Then the next morning I woke up and it hurt to move my leg. So I figured out I had to rest it. But the night it happened it did not seem like a big deal at all.