Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

28 Oct 2013

Mandatory Monday: Statement Wins

The meatier stuff is later in the article, incluing my own explanation for the uptick in ACL tears. There is also a link to a feature about teams with offensive tackle trouble. I was busy.

Posted by: Mike Tanier on 28 Oct 2013

8 comments, Last at 29 Oct 2013, 3:04pm by dryheat


by duh :: Mon, 10/28/2013 - 7:24am

One minor niggle on the fourth down part. The Patriots fourth and 4 in the 4th quarter wasn't really a make-able FG opportunity. It would have been 51 yards into the wind and that wasn't likely. If you recall they made it a point of calling a TO before the end of the third quarter to ensure if they had to kick a FG there it would be with the wind.

by bucko (not verified) :: Mon, 10/28/2013 - 8:22am

"The Bengals are not running away with the AFC North, but they are walking away, and the other teams keep stepping on rakes and whacking themselves in the face as they try to follow."

Very funny. Good line!

by dryheat :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:53pm

Rakes -- my arch-nemesis.

by bucko (not verified) :: Mon, 10/28/2013 - 8:26am

Regarding 'Tackle Trouble' the Packers made noises about benching Barclay this week and going with Newhouse. Derrick Sherrod is also finally healthy.

Barclay's hold on the starting job is tenuous

by Keith(1) (not verified) :: Mon, 10/28/2013 - 8:40am

For the purposes of going for it on fourth down, are we assuming that coaches and defense are treating it like it any other play from scrimmage when the play is run in "discretionary" time of the game? That is, a team like Green Bay, up 24-17, runs a fourth-down-and-very-short play and makes it; is that the same as a Lions teams, down 24-30, running a fourth-down-and-must-make-this-or-we-lose-the-game play?

I ask this because Mike asserts that if we see more of these, we will see more successes. Is that simply by volume or a percentage? Will teams start treating these plays like any other plays (if they are not already), thus making the math not as apparent?

I find the whole situation fascinating.

by zenbitz :: Mon, 10/28/2013 - 2:27pm

Niners Jags had something like 4 4th down conversions, including 2 in FG range (one by the 49ers in a 0-0 tie, 4th and 1 from the 21. While the Niners seem obviously like a team that should be pounding the ball 4th and short, Harbaugh usually just kicks field goals or punts.

by Ulrik (not verified) :: Mon, 10/28/2013 - 6:59pm

I don't know if it's Mike or Goodell that's confused, but Tatiana Maslany is Canadian, and just 16% of her characters on Orphan Black are british.

I don't think it's important wether or not it rains in Wembley. The NFL wants to expand its market, and european fans want to watch NFL games. The question is if giving us 8 Jaguars games a year helps that.

by dryheat :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 3:04pm

Much like the NHL outdoor games, one, maybe two, London games a year is a novelty, an event. I think that less is more in this situation. Could a London team sell out a 50,000 seat stadium over the course of a season? Probably, as long as there's not a prime EPL match on. But many, many cities in the US and Canada can offer the same. I don't think they're going to sell out Wembley every week. I'm just don't see what London offers that, say, San Antonio or Salt Lake City don't. Do they think that all of Western Europe is going to adopt the team and buy all sorts of merchandise? Maybe a TV contract would be the pull. I don't see this great white whale that Goodell and his confidants do. And if there's one out there, based on the attendance of the WLAF, it's probably in Germany. If there's another one, based on where players would actually sign on to play, it's certainly in Canada.