Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

26 Jun 2013

Patriots Release Aaron Hernandez After Police Make Arrest

So there you go, folks. Clearly he did something. The Patriots will take a huge cap hit from the $12.5 million signing bonus they gave Hernandez a year ago, so you could argue that they did the moral thing by cutting him now instead of waiting to see what he would be charged with. Or, you could argue that they did the immoral thing because they are the Patriots and everything they do is evil.

As for the on-field ramifications, huge, of course, but maybe not quite as big as some people believe. Remember, Hernandez only played 10 games last year, and the Patriots' offense was still pretty good in the other six.

I also agree with what Greg Bedard and a lot of other folks are saying on Twitter: "Patriots decision to release Hernandez now means well-connected Patriots security director Mark Briggs thinks this is going to get much worse."

P.S. I just ran some numbers. No, this doesn't mean that the Patriots will once again be the best offense in the league even without Hernandez... obviously, they also lost Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead, and Green Bay has real running backs now. But still, who's the really important player here?

Patriots regular-season offensive DVOA
with Hernandez: 24.0%
without Hernandez: 42.4%

with Gronkowski: 34.7%
without Gronkowski: 22.3%

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 26 Jun 2013

327 comments, Last at 06 Jul 2013, 10:44am by MJK


by Lance :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:54am

Re his on-the-field impact, yeah. I looked at his stats recently and he was something like a 50-600-5 guy for his three years. So, a nice cog in the wheel of the offensive machine, but not the main driver.

Then again, the Pats have been ahead of the curve with this 2 TE passing system, and they're now down to 1 TE and he's got a bad wheel. So it could be a real problem. One wonders how easy it is to just put someone into their system-- what's the learning curve there?

As for the "they are the Patriots and everything they do is evil" bit, one would love to have the eye roll emoticon right about now.

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:12am

His value was more in that he allowed the Patriots to keep the same personnel on the field and line up in several different configurations, rather than his procduction. Depending on the call, Hernandez could line up at the Y, on the wing, in the slot, or in the backfield and know his responsibilities.

by drobviousso :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:17am

So, he' Reggie Bush, huh?

by jonnyblazin :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:46pm

I think it's more or less a given that the Pats will still have a great regular season offense primarily due to Brady's awesomeness. But I'd imagine winning 3 or 4 straight games in the playoffs against good foes will be a lot harder without players like Hernandez who can cause matchup problems.

by ChrisS (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:37pm

Perhaps, but it does not show up in the with/without DVOA numbers shown in the introduction to the article.

by jonnyblazin :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 9:31pm

Looking at the games missed, two were against Buffalo (52-28 and 37-31), one they smoked Indy (59-24) and another they smoked the Rams (45-7). The Pats do have a tendency to rack up huge DVOA numbers when the find weaknesses to exploit. No doubt Brady is good enough to shred bad D's at this point even with limited weapons, but having a skilled, versatile player is always going to be valuable against top defenses. He was the second leading receiver in both the playoff games for the Pats this year.

by theslothook :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:06am

This isn't a comment directed at just brady, but I think its naive to say any qb can get away with poor weapons. Even Manning looked worse when his receivers and o line was injured in 2010. The key to NE is the o line, but even then...2006 Ne wasn't a great offense either. Hernandez's nominal stats may not be superb, but he played an important part in their no huddle. Without him, welker, or even gronk, I'll be very amazed if Brady and the offense puts up league leading numbers once again. Again, they may still be a very good team because of improvements in defense, special teams, and run game...but their pass offense is sure to take a step back.

by nat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:57am

I don't think this means the police have violated the sealed records to warn the Patriots of the up-coming charges. It simply means that obstruction of justice charges were sufficient reason to release him. It's pretty clear now that the charges will be at least that serious.

If that's all the they charge him with, releasing him is still a good idea for the Patriots. He's toast for at least a season, even if he's not actually tried or found guilty of anything. And he's more distraction than even Tebow or Moss at their most circus-like.

It was decent of the Patriots to wait for an actual arrest to make their move.

by CBPodge :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:57am

But wow. I'm stunned that they've cut him before pretty much any of the process has happened. They must have got a tip that things don't look good for him.

Unless they were spying on him. They have previous there... :-P

by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:44am


by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:50am

Whatever is going to happen, it will take more than 3 months. Which means either they would have to hold a roster spot for a player not in camp, facing extremely serious charges, or they would have to release him.

And no, videotaping something being played before tens of thousands of people really doesn't constitute "spying."

by CBPodge :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:03pm

I will admit that my cheap, weak, and old joke did lack nuance.

Although I was referring to taping the Rams Super Bowl walkthrough, not taping the Jets' signals. Which, given it was behind closed doors, does constitute at least a vague approximation of spying (even if the balance of probability is definitely weighed drastically towards it not actually happening, and I say that as a Rams fan).

But the point of the entire comment was the rubbish joke.

On the other bit, yeah, I guess, although the Falcons managed to hold on to Vick in similar circumstances (although I suspect their circumstances were slightly changing by them hoping that "dear god let him get away with it"!)

by krugerindustria... :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:59am

As a non-Pats fan, I had a view of the organization as being 1. business savvy (i.e. releasing players earlier rather than later) and 2. not accepting of player nonsense (i.e. Welker gettin slapped down over the Rex Ryan 'foot' comments). I wonder if this move smacks more of 1. or 2.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:13am

I'd say it's a tie. They probably have decided that the guy is just too damned stupid to have on the roster, even given the cash they have dropped on him already. Chasing losses is the classic amateur mistake, and whatever else Kraft and Belichik are, they are not amateurs.

by Anonymous Jones :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:28pm

Will is right. This action is completely professional. I have no idea why Aaron is intent on taking himself down with this issue. The first XP was basically a hysterical "doth protest too much" apologia, and now, the sentences about "morality" in this second XP are little more than a preposterous straw man argument somehow implying that anyone who ever questions what the Patriots do must believe the Patriots are evil all the time. Seriously? Just take it easy, Champ. Why don't you stop talking for a while?

Again, what Will said...What sets apart Kraft and Belichik is that they are *not amateurs*, but I'd bet they are like a lot of other people on a lot of other issues, in that sometimes they do stuff that's generous and kind and sometimes they do stuff that's repellent and dickish. I'd bet it's complicated and probably not: "all haterz think we're the evilest."

This action seems to fit squarely in the "this is a business, and we're making the sound business decision based on how we see the landscape." Morality on FO. Please stop.

by morganja :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:49pm

It might be time for Aaron Schatz to take some time off and let someone else handle XP for a while. For anyone wondering if this site has a Patriot bias, his rants on this subject are compelling evidence. Not what he was going for, I think.

by Pat (filler) (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:02pm

Rivers McCown is the one who posts the vast majority of Extra Points, not Aaron.

I also have no idea how anyone can look at these two XPs and think that the rants have anything to do with the Patriots, as opposed to a website editor being annoyed by a flood of comments/emails. I almost think you could make up a zlionsfan template for "rant by website editor on recent topic that resulted in comment thread/email inbox explosion because the website editor does not check every thread/email every second."

It happens everywhere, and has nothing to do with the topic, and everything to do with the fact that people who believe someone is biased never seem to think of the simpler answer: the person they're accusing of bias was busy doing something else.

by morganja :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:40pm

No idea? Really?

by Pat (filler) (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 10:02am

Yes, really, no idea. You've really never come across a website editor who's had to deal with a few people whining during a time when said editor is busy doing something else? The rants look exactly like that.

by Lance :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:50pm

Actually, it was one comment made by someone wondering why we were seeing various XPs put up on things like the Texan's run offense and yet, after several days, nothing about a star player for one of the league's premier teams being connected to a murder. That's all. Again: not a flood. As for the "too busy" part, I don't know. From the time when news outlets first reported things until the original petulant XP, something like 4 other XPs went up. Whatever.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 7:19pm

Lack of evidence is not evidence of lack.

You don't know how many emails were sent.

by Scott C :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 9:15pm

Maybe he works for the NSA?

by Lance :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 7:54am

Fair enough, though one of the FO admins did say "in the future, you can just email us instead of hijacking a thread" which suggests that they weren't flooded. But whatever.

by Jerry :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 7:13am

I rolled my eyes, too. But in Aaron (Schatz)'s defense:

-It's book crunch time, which is probably when he's least cheerful. (And Hernandez' availability probably has a significant impact on the New England chapter.)

-It's never pleasant to see someone on your favorite team involved in something like this.

-While the conversation on the previous Hernandez XP was (mostly) at the level we pride ourselves on, that doesn't mean that the communications sent directly to Aaron are of similar quality.

by sundown (not verified) :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 12:13pm

I haven't seen the problem from the beginning. Somebody questions why something isn't posted and people care enough about the topic to use another article's forum to talk about it. Not exactly the end of the world and far better for FO than if everybody just abandoned them and went to talk about it someplace else.

And I posted a very mundane question asking why MMQB sometimes isn't posted in Extra Points and got a pretty snarky reply, implying they read every MMQB and only post the ones that make the cut. Much more likely the sometimes get busy and forget, particularly given their admitting the book is taking up all their time. Quite a bit of attitude from the FO staff for no apparent reason. I don't get it.

by Rivers McCown :: Sun, 06/30/2013 - 3:11pm

I did not think what I said in that thread came off as snarky at all. But ... okay. If you want the full adult conversation about it...

-We don't read every MMQB.
-Sometimes, during book crunch season, nobody is around on Monday. (Or any other given day, for that matter.)
-Usually, when confronted with the choice of putting up something old or putting up something new, I personally will pick something new. Even if that means it breaks a site norm like posting MMQB every week.
-We don't have some super-secret list where we sit around arguing over which XP's make the cut and which don't. We have general rules (like trying to wait until the Hernandez thing had concrete on-field repercussions rather than jumping on it the second the innuendo looked bad) on posting things, but there's not specific case-by-case arguments on what goes up. Nobody has time for that.

Tell me how you would prefer XP's to be run.

by BaronFoobarstein :: Sun, 06/30/2013 - 5:44pm

I'm not one of the people who complained earlier. In fact, the did a bad, bad thing XP was the first news on the topic I'd heard. But since you're soliciting opinion, I'll offer one.

I assume the effort required to post an XP is pretty low. If people want a place to talk about a topic enough to ask for it or to begin discussing it in an unrelated XP, it probably deserves it's own. It's better for FO and for the readers to keep things organized and on this site. Don't engage trollish claims of bias, just quietly put up the new XP if meets some low bar, and resist the urge to be smarmy in the post.

by PeterJMoss :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:03am

From the football side of things despite those numbers without Hernandez there are a lot more questions about the Pats offense this year vs last. In terms of talent Welker and Amendola are relatively similar but Welker has been much more durable over his career.

If they end up playing a bunch of games without Gronk and Amendola that's an offense without a ton of weapons.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:52am

A lot of people think Welker and Amendola are similar. Aside from being white WRs who play in the slot from time to time, I'm not seeing it.

One of the two was First Team AP All-Pro in 2011. And the other has never sniffed that level of performance.

by HabeasDorkus (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:16pm

Age 26 11 G, 8 GS, 63 catches, 666 yards, 3 TD.
Age 25 16 G, 2 GS, 67 catches, 687 yards, 1 TD.

Which one is Welker the year before joining the Patriots, and which one is Amendola? Welker wasn't Welker until he played for the Patriots, Amendola should he stay healthy will not be as good as Welker's best but will still be very productive.

by HabeasDorkus (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:16pm

Whoops, Amendola was 27 last year. Still, the point stands. The concern about Amendola isn't his ability, it's staying healthy.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 7:22pm

Most receivers who had Welker's numbers in his pre-Patriots years do not achieve his numbers that he did with the Patriots.

Your argument is like saying "well, he's a patent clerk, so of course he's likely to be a physics genius soon." Most patent clerks don't turn into Albert Einstein.

by JIPanick :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 7:51pm

Don't ya mean Norman Einstein?

by Mr Shush :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:44am

If you believe Welker is or was truly an all pro calibre receiver, sure. I don't think I'm alone in thinking that he isn't and wasn't, and that his astonishing production was mostly (though by no means entirely) down to his quarterback and system.

by dmstorm22 :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:32pm

Granted it is a small sample size, but if you look at the stats of Brady and the production of that offense when Welker was injured over the past five seasons, there is a serious drop. He might have been more important to that system than people think. We'll see this year.

by Mr Shush :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:28pm

Oh, I'm absolutely not denying that he has substantial value and is a lot better than Edelman. But I do think he's substantially less valuable and difficult to replace than the likes of Fitzgerald, White, Green and the Johnsons - and indeed than Gronkowski. And I think a healthy Amendola (that mythical beastie) would likely make up most (though probably not all) of his production.

by dmstorm22 :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:14pm

He isn't those guys, but I'm a little skeptical of Amendola being able to do a good job replacing him. It could work, but it wasn't just the shiftiness and quick-cut ability of Welker that made him great with NE, but the connection he had with Brady.

by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:19pm

This 49ers fan is pleased to see the back of Amendola.

by db :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:27am

Welker didn't either before Brady.

by Yaguar :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:05am

Persecution complex much, Aaron?

by Theo :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:23am

...because it's impossible to have a reasonable negative opinion about something that someone else loves.

We should turn this "patriots bias" into a joke in order to:
1; make fun of the people who use it
B; make it go away
Tres; make Aaron feel better

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:53am

Obviously you have access to all of Aaron's email.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:13pm

Yes, you poor persecuted Patriots fans. Let me play my tiny violin for you.

\Lions fan

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 7:23pm

Elevating the discourse as always, I see.

by The Ancient Mariner (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:15pm

So you're saying he works for the NSA?

by Not Jimmy (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:09am

You know, it's kind of sad. I'm a Pats fan and I really had blinders on with this guy. I knew that he had some past problems with decision making, but I didn't see it for the past three years. I really liked the AH and I guess I just thought that the team leadership was strong enough to keep him out of trouble. It was a good story - how naïve.

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:15am

Clearly, he fooled Kraft and Belichick too. I don't think you qualify as naive on this one.

by Not Jimmy (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:29am

I also think that they keep such tight lips that if anything had been going on, they wouldn't have let it out anyway. OK I feel better. Now if Big Vince murders someone...

by Not Jimmy (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:31am

Wait - jumping to conclusions there. He hasn't even been charged yet! It's just all the tattoos.

by Tom Gower :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:13am

Test comment.

by nat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:14am

Ah, you noticed the problem with the long title.

by Independent George :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:41am

Test comment.

Only a zpsteios homer would say something so inane.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:19am

Well, he likely still has enough money to assure he won't be railroaded. He'll get a damned good defense. It'll be interesting when the evidence is unsealed, to see if Ol' Aaron underestimated what needs to be done to ensure digitally stored information won't be recovered. Here's a hint for all you aspiring felons; breaking things into small pieces sometimes doesn't get it done.

by jimbohead :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:22am

Yeah, that part of the story confuses me. If he's trying to prevent someone from reading his texts, or from seeing his call log, doesn't he know that this information is held by telecom companies for a period of time, and available to police with a warrant? and doesn't he realize that destroying his cell phone to prevent police from seeing that information is basically the definition of probable cause?

by Lance :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:35am

I was guessing there is video evidence on his phone that was stored locally that he wanted destroyed (knowing, perhaps, just just deleting it doesn't always delete it for good).

by Independent George :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:01pm

Short of having video of the crime scene, I can't think of anything that would be more incriminating than the act of destroying the phone itself. If you've got enough of a window, it's much simpler (and less incriminating) to replace the memory card than it is to destroy the phone.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:08pm

I wouldn't be shocked if there are texts to the effect of "Hey, this motherf***er is heavy! Come help me!".

by Independent George :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:33pm

Hell, a simple '911' text is incriminating - and stored on the server. What it comes down to is this:

1. If they sent a text, they're boned.
2. If they did anything to activate their GPS, they're boned.
3. If they they called each other from the vicinity of the crime scene, they're boned.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:50pm

The digital age just made stupid criminals all that more stupid.

by Abigail (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 5:01pm

You are not any smarter. GPS has nothing to do with locating the phone, neither have texts or voice calls. You can tell the location of the phone by the information from the base stations the phone periodically connects to when it is connected to a (voice or data) network. this data is held by the provider. If you switch phone and data communication off, there is no data.

He most definitely has a smartphone, so google, apple, and the nsa also know where his phone was.

I hate to say but I am afraid they will have trouble proving he pulled the trigger himself.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 5:42pm

At this point, I'll be surprised if the two other guys don't testify against Hernandez.

by Theo :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 6:09pm

What happens when they all say they didn't shoot the guy personally?
Is there something like a grouped conviction?

Here in the Netherlands you can get away with a crime if there's no proof of which person did the crime. If all people involved say "I'm not the one who pulled the trigger" then no one can be convicted and everyone walks free.

by Independent George :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 6:43pm

I believe that falls under the conspiracy charge - it doesn't matter who pulled the trigger as long as you can prove they acted together to kill him.

by SandyRiver :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 8:55am

Conspiracy to commit murder is very serious, but much less so than murder one. Might it be the State's fallback deal should Theo's scenario come to pass?

by White Rose Duelist :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 2:18pm

Conspiracy carries the same potential penalty as the underlying crime, so this isn't just a consolation prize for the state. Also note:

One important feature of a conspiracy charge is that it relieves prosecutors of the need to prove the particular roles of conspirators. If two persons plot to kill another (and this can be proven), and the victim is indeed killed as a result of the actions of either conspirator, it is not necessary to prove with specificity which of the conspirators actually pulled the trigger. (Otherwise, both conspirators could conceivably handle the gun—leaving two sets of fingerprints—and then demand acquittals for both, based on the fact that the prosecutor would be unable to prove beyond a reasonable doubt, which of the two conspirators was the triggerman). A conspiracy conviction requires proof that a) the conspirators did indeed conspire to commit the crime, and b) the crime was committed by an individual involved in the conspiracy. Proof of which individual it was is usually not necessary.

So if they all point to each other and say "He pulled the trigger!", they're all going to jail for a long time.


by BaronFoobarstein :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:00pm

I think there is some confusion because of the overload on the word "conspiracy."

Conspiracy works in exactly the way you describe above. If two people agree to commit a murder, and then they go about their actions and bring that murder about, then both are guilty of murder even if one person's role was to shoot someone with a gun, and the other person's role was something like convincing the target to meet in an out-of-the-way location.

In some jurisdictions there is another crime, not murder, called "conspiracy to commit murder" (or something similar). This crime doesn't require that an actual murder happen, just that two or more people agreed to murder someone and took steps to bring that about.

It's entirely possible to be guilty of both in the same way it would be possible to be guilty of both murder and attempted murder.

by SandyRiver :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:01pm

Thanks for the explanation.

by Lance :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:29pm

"If you've got enough of a window, it's much simpler (and less incriminating) to replace the memory card than it is to destroy the phone."

I suppose. Though, I certainly don't carry an extra memory card around for my phone, and I have no idea how I'd even change it. And, not being super tech-savvy, I'll say that the thought wouldn't have crossed my mind.

But if the options are: 1) see the pics I stupidly took of this dude I (or my friend) just shot in the head; or 2) give them a phone with all the tech parts smashed to bits, (2) seems better, no?

Someone talked about just deleting the pics/video (if there were any), but isn't it the case that just deleting a file doesn't actually permanently delete it? And that tech guys can find those files?

by Independent George :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:44pm

But that's my exact point - the only thing worth destroying the phone over is actual photos/videos of the crime scene. Short of that, and the act of destroying the phone is more incriminating than anything that could have actually been concealed by destroying the phone.

And seriously - mistakes in the heat of the moment is one thing, but who could possibly be dumb enough to photos/videos of the crime scene?

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:52pm

The Power of Evil is nuthin' compared to The Power of Stupid.

by Andrew Potter :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:53pm

who could possibly be dumb enough to photos/videos of the crime scene?

Never underestimate the potential of human stupidity.

by White Rose Duelist :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:55pm

Yes, generally deleting a file just removes its entry in the file directory. The OS can't see it, but it's still there if you have the tools to find it in another way.

This is why there is a quick and full format for a drive - the former just wipes the file registry, while the latter actually goes through and changes all the bits individually.

by Anonymous one (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:01pm

Formatting a drive does not stop or even slow down a competent computer forensic tech. The "shadow" of the data is still pretty easily brought back. Even multiple overwrites can be worked through to recover data though that is when things get "iffy". If you want to keep data private encrypt it otherwise there will always be some doubt. (Most encryption programs can be broken eventually but it ups the difficulty factor incredibly if you have invested in a reasonably good one.)
The reality of the digital gae is anything can be hacked. Anyone how is shocked by the NSA gleaning information from various sources has simply not been paying attention.

by Scott C :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 9:41pm

For magnetic media, yes. For flash storage it is trickier.

On one hand, if the data is truly overwritten in the flash, it doesn't have the 'shadow' that magnetic drives do.

On the other, most OS's 'full format' only overwrites what the OS thinks is the storage space, but a flash drive typically manages 5% to 25% spare area and even if the OS overwrites the data many times it might not actually overwrite the spot that has your data on it. For this reason, it is typical to be able to recover fragments of data after a full format of a solid state device.

Your best option is to subject it to very high temperatures or something that can physically pulverize or grind into sand-sized bits.

For a magnetic hard drive, you can overwrite the bits on disk a few hundred times to remove the 'shadow'.

by Noah Arkadia :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:12pm

Some programs have a method of secure erase called US DoD 5220.22-M (8-306./E) and US DoD 5220.22-M (8-306./E, C&E). I've always assumed they got the job done.

The man with no sig

by Independent George :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:26am

I know that the stress of the situation works against rational thought, but breaking up the phone is Zoolander-esque levels of stupid.

by Not Jimmy (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:33am

Nobody ever accused him of being smart - just dressing smartly.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:42am

If not for the guy taking a dirtnap, it'd be kinda' amusing to watch an incredibly physically and financially blessed person, whose daily planner should have, as it's first entry every morning, "Don't be such an A-hole as to get arrested", fail to clear even that somewhat low bar.

by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:46am

That is the one thing that I thought was silly in Breaking Bad, the way they keep snapping their phones in half and that's it, problem gone.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:50am

Hmmmm......makes me suspect that Hernandez has all those episodes on DVD. Another hint for aspiring felons; don't get your ideas regarding how to avoid imprisonment from television shows.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:55am

Well, some cell phones have little containers of acid that are released when the phone is snapped.

by Theo :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:03pm

So? The data is not stored on the phone but in the records of Verizon/NSA.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:06pm

Are you taking my acid comment seriously?

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:16pm

Should we drop the acid comment? Can we still talk about the blotter?

by Independent George :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:05pm

I don't think it's quite that silly. Prior to what we just learned about the NSA surveillance, it's very easy to trace phone data if you have the number, but very difficult to identify the number being used. Presumably, those phones were pre-paid burn phones; destroy and dispose of the phones, and the police are looking for a needle in the haystack.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:09pm

Yes, it depends on how gangsta Hernandez and his buddies are. People know that disposable phones are mostly untraceable.

But disposable phones are usually bare bones things without bells and whistles. My assumption was that the phone was destroyed because it had photo evidence in it, not because of any phone numbers. Which raised the question: why destroy the phone instead of just deleting the photos? Either the photos are on the central server, in which case they're screwed anyway, or a simple deletion should suffice. And then overwrite them with hundreds of other photos. Or one long video.

by Independent George :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:24pm

I think we can assume that none of them expected anybody to get killed that night, and they were using their regular phones because, well, the most incriminating thing on it would be drug use or cheating on a girlfriend.

Short of taking video or photos of the murder or crime scene itself (which, good god, is even stupider than destroying the phone), the worst thing the local data could do is establish that they were with the victim at the time of death. Really, though, that's probably already on their GPS data (which, again, their service provider already has).

The most incriminating thing would be text messages - even if they don't explicitly mention the death, will provide evidence of either conspiracy or obstruction. A simple "URGENT - come here right now!" is evidence of conspiracy. A coded message like "You need to pick up after your dog" indicates conspiracy in context. The best course of action would have been to make it look like self-defense after an argument got out of control, and then turning yourself in together with lawyers present.

Of course, all of this is easy to say when (a) you're not connected to the crime, and (b) have had time to think about it. In the heat of the moment, I can see even a genius making stupid mistake after stupid mistake.

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:27pm

Oh, I think at this point we can assume that three of the four expected someone to end up dead that night.

by Independent George :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:36pm

If they planned it, then they really, really, really botched it.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:43pm

Maybe Hernandez never watched "The Sopranos", and thus missed the lesson pertaining to the geographical advantage to committing planned murders, ala Big Pussy, near the ocean. I'm sure he could have called his boss, and said "Uh, coach, may I borrow your boat for a few hours?"

by Independent George :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 6:46pm

It also falls under maritime law - that's why you should take to the seas if anything goes wrong!

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 7:27pm

The body was dumped about a mile from Hernandez's home.

Really lazy.

by Scott C :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 9:44pm

It appears that the body was not dumped at all -- it was left where it fell. Two minutes after shots were fired and heard near the site, he returned home. That is 30 miles an hour average speed if he left the crime scene immediately.

by 3.14159265359 (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:37am

He does have a top attorney by all accounts, and that has to cost a lot of dough, but I am wondering if a guy like Hernandez saves his dough or blows through it.

by johonny (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:35am

suddenly snagging that TE from the Giants looks big.

by JimZipCode :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:50pm

Jake Ballard.

by PaddyPat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:43am

What I'm confused by after all of this is the general sense I had at the time that the Pats extended him that the best thing for the team was to keep Gronkowski and Welker and assume that Hernandez would eventually get a big money deal elsewhere. I thought Welker was the much more important offensive player and couldn't understand the prioritization there, age aside. Once Brady goes, it won't really matter that much; they'll have to rebuild to some extent anyway, and Welker seemed like he could have lasted through the rest of Brady's career... Hindsight is obviously 20-20, but I think the team made a very foolish personnel decision even without this arrest.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:57am

It's not just hindsight. I thought it was clear that Welker was by far the most productive receiver of the three, and yet he was the one treated the worst. I really think it became personal between Belichick and him.

And now he'll have an All-Pro season for the Broncos while the money that could have been spent to retain him was wasted on Hernandez.

Oh, but Welker dropped a pass in the Super Bowl. Which apparently was the only mistake made by an otherwise perfect team.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:00pm

Mrs. Bundchen agrees.

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:19pm

This smacks of revisionism. Welker is significantly older than Hernandez. Nobody in their right mind would give him a seven year deal over Hernandez last October, especially in the context of what the Patriots do offensively. Absolutely nobody.

Additionally, it's not an either/or equation. Belichick could have easily afforded both, but came to the conclusion that Welker's value was not commensurate to what Welker and his agent were looking for. He was right.

by GlennW :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 5:05pm

"Belichick could have easily afforded both, but came to the conclusion that Welker's value was not commensurate to what Welker and his agent were looking for. He was right."

I assume you're referring only to the whopping $1M/year difference in market offers as your measure of each side's respective "value" judgments. Instead I'll reserve judgment based on Welker's actual value on the field of play over the next two years. That's the thing about the NFL free agent market-- it's not always right, and sometimes it's not even close. This debate is ultimately going to be decided by performance, not based on who pulled what over on whom (and in what amount) in the marketplace.

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 8:06pm

Value is what a player can get on the market. Not one of the 32 teams offered Welker close to what he and his agent were seeking. And only two were willing to pay him what he ultimately signed for.

Either their was rampant collusion (not impossible) or Belichick pegged Welker's value much more accurately than Welker or his agent did.

The market is the market. We saw how it valued Welker.

by GlennW :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 8:58pm

And my point is, that will all be small consolation if Welker averages 120/1400/8 (i.e. what he's done for the Patriots the past two seasons) for the Broncos while Amendola gets hurt again. But I have actually heard this argument before-- only the market matters so Belichick is already "right", as if individual team factors and actual future performance don't matter. Well, the market is highly imperfect, and the shrewdest financial analysts aren't awarded the Super Bowl regardless. (Again, the Patriots played out this particular game and "won" a whopping $1M/year in the player exchange, if that.)

So what is Amendola's "value"? As far as I know, the Patriots were the only serious suitor. So did they "win", just because Belichick's decisions are self-validating?

Hell, let's let the thing play out at least. It's not like Belichick's market/value assessments have never been wrong before-- Adalius Thomas, Haynesworth, Ochocinco, etc.

by SandyRiver :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 8:52am

Adalius I'll give you - that was like emptying one's wallet to bet on the favorite, which then finishes out of the money. The other two, especially Haynesworth, are more like plunking down $2 on a 30:1 longshot. Most don't pan out, but occasionally one finds a Mike Vrabel or re-ignites a Randy Moss.

by GlennW :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:27am

A 30:1 longshot is an exaggeration. I included Haynesworth and Ochocinco for a reason-- their restructured contracts were not insignificant, and in fact were not terribly different than the two-year deal Welker just received from the Broncos. Haynesworth was paid $5.5M for 6 games of work, and Ochocinco $7M for an empty season (both players were cut with a year remaining on their contracts, in two-deals like Welker's). Yes, both acquisitions were made via trade, but even at the time it was perceived that Belichick was taking risks and paying above the sacred "market value" to do so.

Bottom line, especially given these other data points I still don't understand the squeeze that was put on Welker over $1M/year or so (even while acknowledging that Welker's agent initially overplayed his hand-- which easily could have been managed in committed post-free agent negotiations). And that's not just revisionism in light of the Hernandez situation.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 7:31pm

To the extent that I've been saying for 12 months that the Pats should retain Welker, it's not revisionism.

But no, it's not an either-or. Or it shouldn't have been.

I have no idea why you think Belichick was right about Welker when we have yet to see Week One of this season. Let's not forget that Belichick has ended up offering a good deal more money to Amendola than he (or the Broncos) offered to Welker. So are you saying that Belichick is correct to think that Amendola will be a better receiver this Fall than Welker?

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 8:09pm

I think that Belichick thinks that Amendola will outperform what Welker would have over the next four years. I think he's right.

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:10pm

"I really think it became personal between Belichick and him."

Of course it did. He took less money in Denver than the Patriots offered him. He misjudged the market, and when he figured it out, the team had already moved on.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 7:34pm

No, he did not take less money in Denver than the Patriots offered him.


by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:01am

I trust the Patriots saying they did a lot more than I trust an agent who just got his ass kicked on the market. He's trying to save face.

You can chose to believe what you want.

When it comes down to it, we know they offered him an extension the year before before he signed the franchise tag, and he turned it down. They were willing to pay him 9.6M for one year, so I'd be real suprised that they next year they wouldn't go 2/10.

What probably happened is they offered him 2/$10-16, the agent told him he could get more, and when he realized he couldn't, Ammendola had already been signed and the offer was off the table.

by Raiderjoe :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:46pm

Is poster drunk?

by Ivarsson.se :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 3:06am

Imposter/not drunk?

by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:50am

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the Pats should not have cut him. Not even because he has the right to be presumed innocent, that's a matter for the courts, not the NFL.

They should not have cut him so they could have made every effort to recoup as much of his bonuses as possible, not for cap room but because I think keeping money away from murderers and those that protect them is a very reasonable thing to do.

I understand the desire to avoid the PR hit but at this stage I don't see how hard it would be to simply explain, "We're going to try to pevent him from pocketing all that money."

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:53am

On the other hand, the more he has, the more that can be recovered by the family of the dead guy, in a civil proceeding.

by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:22pm

I hadn't thought of that, you don't get many civil lawsuits resulting from murder cases in the UK. Most of it will end up in the pockets of the lawyers anyway.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:38pm

This'll likely be a slamdunk lawsuit; the criminal proceeding will establish all facts to a higher standard than what a civil lawsuit requires. I'm not sure how easy it is to hide assets in Massachusetts, via bankruptcy or other means, from a wrongful death judgement. It can be a real battle; I don't know how much Nicole Simpson's family ever recovered, for instance, from O.J., after getting, what, a 30 or 40 million dollar judgement? I think O.J. may have run through all his cash in his criminal defense, however, and what he had left was his sizable self-funded pension, which was immune to such a judgement. Somebody at some time gave O.J. some very good legal/financial advice as to how to protect himself from himself.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:11pm

Nicole's estate (the children) received 12.5M of the judgement. Their odds of actually seeing it are higher than the Goldman family, however, because the kids are also O.J.'s inheritors. As such, anything at risk of being seized by the Goldman's can be transferred to them first; they'll also get everything OJ managed to hide in Florida real estate.

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:14pm

I don't understand why they can't go after it anyway. I'm willing to bet that he's violated his contract, so what's the difference if he's been released or not?

They've been allowed to go after Jonathan Fanene's singing bonus from last offseason, and they cut him.

by Lance :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:21pm

Just heard on the radio now (they're citing some ESPN sources) that the Pats have revoked their rights to go after his bonus money, etc. In other words, if this is true then they are SERIOUSLY washing their hands of all of this. Truly, just "please go away."

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:25pm

I guess that makes sense in light of the money either going to his infant daughter who's Daddy is now out of work - potentially forever, the family of the victim, or both.

by mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:55am

I'm actually surprised that the Pats released him this quickly, without finding out more about the charges. It's not like this case won't be tied to the Pats anyway. When other contending teams have run into cases like this (Ray Lewis, Roethlisberger), the teams have stood by, waiting for the legal system to run its course. The exception was Rae Carruth. I have to be impressed by the Patriots taking the high road so early here; they didn't have to.

Aaron, I think you should run those numbers again, this time including games where both Gronk and Hernandez were out. Also, splitting out games against the Jets may be useful, since the Pats play two Rex Ryan defenses in the first week, when Gronk may not be available. The first couple of weeks may be tough. On the plus side for them, adding Jamie Collins will drastically improve their pass rush, so the defense may be up to the challenge.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:01pm

I suspect the Patriots know a good deal more about what the charges are than we do.

There's a huge gap between the Roethlisberger case and the Lewis and Hernandez cases. I think there's a lot more damning information about Hernandez than even about Lewis. And there's a difference between a fight that gets out of control and a bullet to the back of the head. One is arguably manslaughter (and indeed, nobody was ever convicted of the primary crime) while the other looks like first or second degree murder.

by apk3000 :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:39pm

Also, they could looking at it from a "Goodell's going to probably suspend him one way or the other, let's just find a replacement now" perspective.

by whckandrw (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:23pm

Probably but it might not even be about having specific knowledge of the charges. It could be a matter of not wanting to deal with having a player on the roster who has close ties to a murder case. I don't like to get deep into the pop psychology of sports but there's almost no argument against that being an off the field distraction. Otherwise your players, coaches and management deal with a season of questions about their relationship to Hernandez and if he'll be able to play. How the case effects the team.

If I was the Patriots I'd cut the guy to distance my team from him and for good PR.

by Scott C :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 9:50pm

This is simply not true. Several players THIS YEAR have been cut by teams shortly after arrest.

They simply are not high profile players.

The U.T. San Diego NFL Arrests database has lots of info:


For example, did you know this is the second day in a row that an NFL player was arrested and cut by a team?

Yes, ONE DAY PRIOR to this, another player was arrested for attempted murder and cut by a team. Have a look above before judging what is 'normal' in the NFL in relation to criminal offenses.

by White Rose Duelist :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 12:42pm

Or, you could argue that they did the immoral thing because they are the Patriots and everything they do is evil.

I'm a Patriots fan, and even I think you're behaving childishly about this. If they did the immoral thing, it's for not allowing the justice system to take its course before making a decision.

Whining about people who claim the site is biased only helps their claims.

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:17pm


I think Aaron's fear of being biased is negatively affecting his work at this point. Pretty much every comment he posts is hedged heavily in the opposite way. He IS biased at this point, but the bias is the opposite way. He's so afraid of sounding like a Pats homer (which hes not) that hes no longer rational about the team.

by justanothersteve :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:00pm

Good grief. I'd hate to have my every word parsed down to see if there was some sort of hidden bias. As Foghorn Leghorn once said, "That Rhode Island Red turned white. Then blue. Rhode Island. Red, white, and blue. That's a joke, son."

Disclaimer: Packers fan. Still waiting to see if GB has real running backs.

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 6:10pm

If you don't want your every word parsed, you probably shouldn't write for a living.

Aaron clearly has a bit of sand in his panties over this, and should probably take a step back.

by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 7:16pm

Big talk from an anonymous, unverified account. When people respond and accuse him in this manner it doesn't surprise me that he sometimes feels the need to defend himself. I can only imagine the crap he gets on twitter.

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:49pm

Respond and defend himself?

He's the one putting passive-aggressive whinging in his articles. He needs to grow up and act like a professional.

by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:02am

Get over yourself. If you don't like this site you are able to go and read quite a lot of other websites. Aaron does not have to jump to your every demand and has always made it clear that he will continue to support the team that made him love the game enough to build a site devoted to football.

I really don't like the Pats (spy gate etc) but there is nothing in the way he has covered this that suggests he has a hidden agenda. It is consistent with the way they have handled similar cases, this is neither a NFL news ticker or an NFL gossip site.

Aaron is not the one whining here.

by InTheBoilerRoom :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:30am

Agreed. For reference, I am a Panthers fan who also dislikes the Patriots.

There has been more bias from the anti-Patriots people than from Aaron in all of this nonsense. I imagine that the people being so hard headed in all of this are the very types of people that would react even worse than Aaron has if they were subjected to similarly ridiculous accusations. Note that I am not referring to the people that were very simply seeking a forum for discussing the topic, without accusing Aaron of anything. I'm referring to the people that will make accusations of Patriots bias toward the entire staff when there's really only one Patriots fan that I can think of on staff.

by rfh1001 :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 7:21pm

Unnecessary roughness.

by Scott C :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:07pm

I agree, he is clearly a biased Cleveland fan for not reporting that a Browns player was arrested on charges of attempted murder and cut yesterday!

(disclosure, I'm a Chargers Fan)

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:48pm

There's quite a difference between an undrafted rookie who probably wouldn't make the team, and one of the better players in the league.

by IrishBarrister :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:03pm

I see this entire situation a little differently than most posters it appears (read some, skimmed most), but that's probably because I'm an attorney.

In order to get a warrant, the police must prove to a judge that there is probable cause (effectively a more likely than not standard) of evidence of a specific crime at the location. And the police got more than one for locations/property relating to Hernandez. Not a good sign.

Now you don't know what you are charged with until arraignment - the whole "your under arrest for the such-and-such crime" is just TV. My guess is that Patriots' legal counsel called the local DA to get a sense of the charges before arraignment (it happens with high profile businesses). And since New England cut him, its unlikely he's facing a simple obstruction of justice charge. More probable is that he is facing accessory (before and after) and conspiracy, even without the first/second degree murder charge. And in case you are unaware, a conspiracy conviction puts you on the hook for all crimes committed in furtherance, i.e., he'll get hit with conspiracy for murder (not a MA attorney, but generally 10-20 years).

But all of this is just a guess premised on the notion that cutting a guy for ONLY an obstruction of justice charge is going overboard. I'm not commenting on whether I think he's guilty of any of this - I have way too little evidence to come to a reasoned conclusion - but just giving my viewpoint on why the Patriots probably cut him.

by Rocco :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:49pm

As an attorney myself I had similar thoughts this morning. I know the Pats are saying that they planned on releasing Hernandez if he was arrested at all but I'm not totally buying it- my hunch is that they received word that there's about to be some more serious charges. We'll see.

by herewegobrowniesherewego (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 6:51pm

Good prediction; likewise Modell and Newsome must have figured that Ray Lewis was going to find a way to only get an obstruction of justice conviction in 2000, when they gave him no in-house punishment.

Yes, Ausar Walcott is being pretty severely overshadowed in all of this (although I guarantee that even most very serious Browns fans had no idea who he was until today.)

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:09pm

"so you could argue that they did the moral thing by cutting him now instead of waiting to see what he would be charged with"

I'm not sure how you could argue that at all. Wise? Probably, but moral?

The moral thing would be to make sure he actually did it before cutting him. You know, presumption of innocence and all.

Now, he probably did do it, but we don't know that yet.

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:15pm

You seem to be confusing moral with legal. There is nothing moral about presuming innocence. And in fact, nobody has to presume innocence except a judge and jury.

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:17pm

And there's nothing Moral about firing a guy because he was accused of a crime, which was my point.

by Scott C :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:08pm

I guess every team in the NFL is immoral (or amoral?)


Since most have cut a player after arrest sometime in the last year or two before trial.

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:50pm

amoral and immoral are very different things.

by David :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:13am

Amoral and immoral are different things. Amoral and bananas are very different things

by JIPanick :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:00pm


by Noah Arkadia :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:32pm

Amoral and immoral are more different than moral and immoral -which are opposites. Bananas, meanwhile, are amoral and can be used for moral or immoral purposes, so it's not clear at all.

The man with no sig

by BaronFoobarstein :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:03pm

Time flies like an arrow.
Fruit flies like a banana.

by GregF (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:26pm

Although it's very unlikely, could any teams try to pick him up off of waivers? Roll the dice on getting a good player if the chargers are dropped/he is found not guilty? What would be the repercussions if a team did this?

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:57pm

He isn't good enough to justify the public relations cost, the hostility it would likely cultivate from the league office, and just the general pain in the ass it would be, especially since the likelihood of him skating is likely no better than 5% and probably less than that.
Rolling dice doesn't makes sense when you are playing with 20 sided die, and when failing to get very lucky costs a lot, and when even getting very lucky doesn't deliver anything all that spectacular. Hell, it wouldn't make any sense if Mr. Bundchen was being arrested today.

by Theo :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 5:00pm

Maybe not today when the dust hasn't settled yet, but what you're writing is a copy of what everyone wrote about Mike Vick a few years ago.
This - if he doesn't get convicted for murder.

by Bowl Game Anomaly :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 10:31am

Right, except nobody tried to claim Vick off waivers when he was arrested. The Eagles didn't try to acquire him until after he had been convicted, served his sentence, and was released from prison. Nobody is saying Hernandez's career is over if he is acquitted or only hit with a lesser charge, but the odds of him being available to play this coming season are vanishingly small.

by Dean :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:57pm

Any team could, but as you pointed out, it'd be unlikely. They would have him on their roster and his salary would count against the cap but there would be no cash outlay by the team (save the $100 waiver claim fee) unless/until he was actually on the regular season roster.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:13pm

It's a shame Raider Joe's dad died. I would love to have seen if Al would have signed him, just to tweak Goodell.

by Raiderjoe :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 5:35pm

Al Davis (genius football minf) wkudl have not singed Hernandez at this time. But maybe if get off on lesser charge and released mext year then Davis mimgth sign Hernandez but only if P. Rozelle still alive and also if leaghe doesnt suspend Hernandsz and also only if the 2 new Raiders TEs don't work out. Last part most unlikely be cause M. Rivera and N. Kasa gogiin to be studs

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:46am

The good kind of stud, or the Shawn Kemp kind of stud?

by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:52am

On field stud. But if btkh have lots of kids that is fine.

Alwuas thought good idea to take good player (like F. Biletnikoff or W. Brown or G. Upshaw) and let tbdm have sdx with many women like horses. Then Raiders could have rights tokids se babies (if boys) And can put on rooster. Howie long's kods could be with Raiders right now.

Raiders stud factory could be located on mansion in Petaluma

by Jimmy :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:18pm

Well Al Davis had a son. How's that one turning out?

by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:46pm

Just a little rough patches in beginbjfg but will work out in end. R. McKenzie has Super Bowl bluepint. Tema going to win big next year or year after or both. Whole organization foign to lookgerat even kif M. Davis not majestic yet.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:57pm

Howie seems to be the exception. The NFL doesn't have the family dynasties that baseball and hockey have.

For that matter, basketball seems to lack them, too. Unless you're a Barry.

by Dean :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:01pm

I have the Matthew's on Line 1 and the Payton's on Line 2.

by dryheat :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:18pm

The Paytons? I don't recall Jared doing anything in the NFL, and Sean isn't related. The Dorsett's would have been slightly more apt. The Slaters even. The Cribbs definitely.

by Dean :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 8:53pm

You forgot Jerry. And as for Jarrett (not Jared), just MAKING the NFL is pretty impressive.

by justanothersteve :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 9:27pm

There's also the Mannings and Metcalfs.

by Guest789 :: Sun, 06/30/2013 - 3:11am

I can't think of a single family dynasty in hockey. Maybe the Howes, but even that's stretching it.


“Treat a man as he is, and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he could be, and he will become what he should be.”

by Will Allen :: Sun, 06/30/2013 - 9:57am

Bobby and Brett Hull. Uncle Dennis scored 300-plus goals himself.

by dryheat :: Sun, 06/30/2013 - 2:04pm

The Sutters? The Stahls? Or were you strictly talking multi-generational?

I wouldn't say the Howe's are a stretch. Isn't Mark in the HoF?

by Jerry :: Sun, 06/30/2013 - 6:34pm

The Sutters are multi-generational (Brandon). Don't forget Syl Apps, Sr. and Jr. Syl Jr.'s daughter Gillian plays for Canada's national team, too.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Sun, 06/30/2013 - 6:58pm

There were four Howes in the NHL - Gordie's brother played, too. Two are in the HOF. You've also got the Hulls and the Sutters.

If you want to talk siblings, the following have two sets in the Hall - the Bentleys, the Bouchers,the Cooks, the Espositos, the Patricks, the Richards. The Conachers have three.


And before you compare the NFL list, realize that NHL roster sizes are about 40% the size of NFL rosters.

by Dean :: Mon, 07/01/2013 - 10:21am

The Hextalls? The Irvines? The Hulls? Reijo Rutsalanen's son just got picked in the first round yesterday, so we might add them soon. Tomas and Alex Steen? Hell, even Eric Lindros had a brother in the NHL. This isn't even difficult.

by BaronFoobarstein :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:04pm

The Secretariat kind.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:02pm

Secretariat wasn't considered to be a good sire.

by Vague (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:58pm

For the record Shawn Kemp was an very good player before he fell off. Might have had a championship if they hadnt met the 72-10 Bulls.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:45pm

wrong placement

by Raiderjoe :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:44pm

Hernandez horiivls peroan. Pates fans supported this guy until moment he released today. Horrible judgment all way around.

by Änönyrnouß (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:12pm

> Pates fans supported this guy until moment he released today

GTFO, that's a ridiculous accusation.

by Andrew Potter :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:49pm

Reports now saying he's been charged with murder.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:54pm

I won't be surprised to learn that one of the other guys flipped.

by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:56pm

Yeah, it's horrible from top to bottom. If the media is going to go through this step by step then I'm going to get sick of it. I'm just a football fan and from now on I don't want to hear his name, not even in a discussion of whether the pats have enough weapons.

by jackgibbs :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 2:54pm

officially charged with murder.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:08pm

Oh, good grief, they've got text messages that place Hernandez and the victim together at the time of the murder. They have video and audio of Aaron Hernandez walking around with a pistol shortly before the murder, talking about how you can't trust anybody anymore. The urge is to say it is unbelievable, but apparently no level of idiocy is unbelievable.

by Dean :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:23pm

If you believe the prosecution, of course. And lets face it, an overzealous government official trying to make a name for themself isn't exactly unheard of.

Don't get me wrong - if I were to assign a probablilty to his guilt, it would be fairly close to 1. It just wouldn't BE 1 yet.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:27pm

Yeah, overzealous prosecutors do dumb things too. Usually with some dumb sap who can't afford to defend himself. I suspect the state pretty much had this in place by last Friday, and they just had no reason to rush things.

by wr (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:31pm

Agreed. Because this was *very* high profile & he could afford good lawyers,
the police/DA wanted to make damened sure they had their ducks in a row before
taking action.

by Dean :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:40pm

As good as the lawyers in the Duke Lacrosse case?

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:47pm

Yeah, a rape accusation that has, as it's primary evidence, the testimony of a hooker, isn't really comparable to having the reality of bullet-ridden body. Is it impossible that the prosecutor in this case is as nuts a Mike Nyfong was? No. It's not impossible that I will win the Powerball jackpot, either.

by Dean :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:53pm

Hence a probability that approaches 1 but isn't 1.

by Independent George :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 10:53am

So, the limit as x approaches 1?

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:55pm

You mean the one where the accuser's two friends admitted that the accuser told them she was going to invent that story?

I like my chances with Barry Zuckerkorn on that case.

by Gridiron Shakespeare :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 8:59am

He's very good.

by James-London :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:15pm

Wow. IF what PFT are reporting is correct Hernandez is (rightly) doomed...

Are there any trade candidates for the Pats at this point, either at Tight End or WR, or should we expect the 'Corey Dillon 2004' New England offense?

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:53pm

Even if there were teams looking to trade a tight end right now I doubt very much that they'd be an adequate replacement for ********* or the Gronk if he misses significant time.

I can think of two high level pass catching tight ends that could conceivably be available, Jimmy Graham because he doesn't have a long term deal and the Saints might not have the cap room to keep him long term or one of Green Bay's tight ends because the Pack have quite a few. However, Graham would cost quite a lot and apart from Finley I don't know if their guys would really be an upgrade.

by mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:54pm

I think the 2006 New England offense is much more likely. If the Pats could get the 2004 defense up and running, they'll be fine though.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:23pm

Apparently, some forensic genius also left a shell casing in the rental car that matches the shell casings found at the scene of the shooting. Good thing he smashed his cell phone, though!

by Lance :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:56pm

Just read the PFT stuff. And yeah, sounds like Hernandez was clueless. If I understand things correctly, the prosecutor spelled things out at the arraignment. Texts from Lloyd to others saying he was with Hernandez, and Hernandez texting his posse to meet at the soon-to-be execution site. Video of a man with a gun in Hernandez's house-- at which point the video is turned off.

The defense, according to PFT, called the case "weak" and "circumstantial" but that sounds more like wishful thinking.

In terms of football, I think all the ideas that someone might take a shot at nabbing him in the off chance that he is cleared are no longer valid. That's it for his football career, and for his freedom for the next 30 years or so (if not longer). As for poor Mr. Lloyd, it sounds like he was a personable guy who enjoyed playing football with his old high school friends. One wonders what he said about Hernandez to piss him off so much, but whatever it was, it certainly wasn't worth his death.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:11pm

I can only hope Mr. Lloyd didn't have any kids.

by Lance :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:53pm

From what I've gathered, he worked in landscaping and had no children. He was, according to what I read his sister as saying, "like a father" to his 7 year old niece, however.

by Subrata Sircar :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:23pm

FO learned nothing from the previous XP commentary, I see. If you can't take the high road, let someone else write the XP.

As for the football issues here, I think the Patriots will still be a top-seven offense - their O-line, QB and scheme will buoy them against the receiving talent exodus - but I would not care to bet on their being any better than fifth. With their best receiver and one top TE gone, and their other top TE out for an indeterminate length of time - multiple forearm and back surgeries don't leave me with confidence here - it's not out of the question they could slip out of the top ten.

It will also likely have a cascading effect on the defense - they'll face fewer long drives since the Patriots will likely not be kicking off as much nor driving the ball a long way even when they stall - but I don't know how to account for that.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:29pm

There's a decent shot that DVOA will still put them in the top-5. DVOA has an Eagles-like love of the Patriots.

by DavidL :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 6:05pm

And they do stubbornly insist on making the playoffs all the freaking time, so I won't be surprised if they bounce back from this cumulative Tightendpocalypse too.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:47am

Well, by league rule, someone has to win the AFC East.

And it sure isn't going to be the Jets, Bills, or Dolphins.

by Mr Shush :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:25pm

Really? I mean, I think the Patriots are still favourites, don't get me wrong, but I wouldn't rule out a substantial step forward from the Dolphins, that could even make them a wild card contender if the Patriots fail to miss a beat.

by Mehllageman56 (not verified) :: Sat, 06/29/2013 - 12:40pm

If any of the young quarterbacks in that division are ready this year, their teams become contenders for the division. The Jets have the least offensive talent, but they also had the best defense of the four teams last year, and have finished in the top ten for DVOA every year under Ryan. Obviously the Dolphins are the biggest threat to the Patriots, with everybody they added in the offseason. Buffalo has talent on both sides of the ball, and stole the Jets defensive coordinator, making me think they won't be ending up last in Defensive DVOA in the division this year. That said, the schedules for all of them are brutal.

by Theo :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 5:15pm

If you read how he allegedly killed the guy, it doesn't sound like a first time, does it?

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 6:02pm

Does to me.

A repeat killer would have done a much better job not leaving evidence everywhere.

by RickD :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 7:43pm

Including a body a mile from the Hernandez house.

A real lack of intelligence here.

by dryheat :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 8:11pm

Exactly. Guys who are this bad at it don't get a second whack at it.

by Theo :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 8:50pm

Yeah, I wrote that before I read how badly he tried to cover it up.
All I could think was "was shooter drunk?"

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:03pm

Oh, for the love of Sherlock Holmes, I just read that they have a wad of gum that Hernandez chewed (presumably determined via DNA), that was found next to the shell casing found under the driver's seat, of the car that Hernandez was driving that night.

At this point, I'm surprised the moron didn't post the shooting on youtube.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:48am

I just checked; he didn't.

by rfh1001 :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:43am

Dudes, he wouldn't have posted it using his own name. He's not an idiot. It'll take a bit of checking but I bet it's there.

by BucNazty (not verified) :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 12:11am

It probably was there, but was removed for violating their terms of service.

by Independent George :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 7:14am

Damn that Fakeblock! George Maharis is ruining the internet!

by Lance :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:15pm

Except now CNN is saying he may be tied to more murders!!

by dryheat :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 2:31pm

I think we can close all the open murder investigation in New England from the past four years, provided they didn't occur on Sunday afternoons during football season.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 2:53pm

I dunno. I'd think I'd look for any shootings that occurred in and around Foxboro during halftime as well.

by Independent George :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 2:56pm

Yeah - but where was Steve Sax on those Sunday afternoons?

by Lance :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:10pm

According to sources-- and who knows who they are, etc., etc.,-- We have:

"What is known is that the Boston Police Department has located and impounded a silver SUV with Rhode Island registration that police have been trying to find for almost a year, that's linked to the scene of a double homicide in 2012, the source said.

Investigators believe that Hernandez was renting the SUV at the time of those killings, the source said."

The pattern seems to be that then Hernandez rents a car, someone dies. What they should really do is check all Boston-area rental companies and see when he rented a car and try to match that with unsolved gangland style murders.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:19pm

Who knows? Maybe this is all part of a plan by Ol' Aaron to get an endorsement deal from Hertz.

by Johnny Socko (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:21pm

I agreed with the original idea that this didn't seem like Hernandez's first go-round with murder. He did it (yes, I'm making that assumption) in such a cold and seemingly casual way. This was not a sudden act of violence during an altercation, this was a planned ambush. Its as though Hernandez has a "Soprano" complex. A wanna-be gansta.

by dryheat :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 6:47pm

The evidence thus far points to him possibly shooting five people pretty casually. I think we can leave out the "wannabe".

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:08pm
by Theo :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 9:57am

most make mistakes after a while because they get complacent.

I meant by the cold bloodedness of it, though.
The bad cover up might actually mean he's not nervous anymore of getting caught because he got away with it before.

by Sisyphus :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:04pm

There is a tragedy here but it is not for Hernandez or the Patriots but Odin Lloyd, a name I have not seen mentioned here much. Odd that we are rendering the victim for the most part nameless and depersonalized just as "the guy". I am sure that at some point various motivation theories will start to be fielded but who he was is likely to be a lost story. Reflecting on that one is left with a not a very good feeling.

by Scott C :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:20pm

Yeah, I feel the same. Yes, this is Hernandez' arrest and murder charges. But it is moreso the murder of Odin Lloyd.

by Mike P (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:58pm

This is a tragedy on multiple fronts, it just so happens that Hernandez is the far more interesting story. Odin is just one of many unfortunate people who are murdered every year. There is nothing particularly noteworthy about him, other than his suspected killer. Hernandez was a star player in his prime playing for one of the best teams in the nfl.
The fact that he threw away his career is tragic for himself and all his fans.
That he had a girlfriend and infant child is more tragic.
This is a sad case where everybody is a loser.

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:52pm

The victim is just "the guy". The only reason this is a news story is Aaron Hernandez plays for the Patriots.

There were 5 people killed this weekend in Boston. You hear about any of those? See any helicopter chases?

It sucks for Odin Lloyd and his family, but he deserves no more acclaim than any of the others killed this weekend.

by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:02am

"Acclaim"? You really are a twerp.

by rfh1001 :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:44am

Yes. I really hating getting into this, but I also think you are a twerp.

by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 8:19am

You are entitled to your opinion but at least I'm using a verified account so you know which twerp you are talking to.

by rfh1001 :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 9:36am

I'm also using a verified account and I'm using it incompetently. I don't think you're a twerp. I think mousse is a twerp and I think it's the perfect word.

by Carl Kuba (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:08pm

You're all twerps!

by Karl Cuba :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 6:26pm

OK this is getting weird, I'm now getting trolled by a bizzarro version of my own metasocial persona. There is only one response at a time like this, to my fortress of solitude!

No? No fortress?

OK, plan B:

"You're a twerp".

by rfh1001 :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 2:38am

It's just the multiverse. These things happen.

by jackgibbs :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 12:05pm

forget it, Karl. it's multiversetown

by Noah Arkadia :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:19pm

If Mousse has a point, and I think he does, it's that we tend to put victims up on a pedestal. That is, we automatically assume they are completely blameless when we don't know to what extent they were accomplices to the crime they were a victim of.

For example, suppose that as PFT is reporting, Lloyd did have information tying Hdez. to other killings? If you keep the company of wild dogs, don't be surprised when they bite you.

The man with no sig

by rfh1001 :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 2:44am

Yes, I agree. I don't think everything mouse says is wrong. I just think he or she is needlessly aggressive, which is not the usual F/O style, and which I can get elsewhere/everywhere else. The F/O style is more about passive aggression.

(My brother always used to get angry that I'd make the argument about the way we were arguing not about the thing we were arguing about.)

by Scott C :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:24pm

I have posted this link above in a few places, but the UT San Diego NFL Arrest Database is fascinating and relevant:


The first thing you'll see is Hernandez. The second thing you will see is an arrest of a player on a different team for attempted murder one day prior, and a team cutting him from the roster.

Teams are dealing with player arrests all the time, and most do not get much media attention.

There have been 36 arrests so far this year.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 10:31pm

I read somewhere last year that arrests had fallen significantly since Goodell began his reign of punitive suspensions. I wonder if this was just an anomaly, and now things are returning to the norm.

by Scott C :: Wed, 06/26/2013 - 11:37pm

I wouldn't expect the NFL population to differ much from a random sample of people with similar backgrounds and socioeconomic status prior to entering the NFL, no matter how much the commissioner tried.

by wr (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:15am

It might, IF players that have really dubious background checks are not picked up by any of the teams. Emphasis on the 'if'.

by Scott C :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:53pm

I'm inclined to agree here -- if the risk of a bad investment deters teams more than it did before. However, players with very high talent levels such as Hernandez will probably always find a team willing to give them a chance.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:10am

Well, these are people who have a lot more to lose financially than the median wage earner, and people generally do respond to incentives and disincentives, so I was not surprised that arrests fell by a substantial percentage, once Goodell made it clear that getting arrested was going to become a lot more expensive.

It's not an precise relationship, however, so I was always curious as to how constant the trend would hold. It seems there was a reversal this year, and it'll be interesting to see what unfolds over the next 5 years. Of course, it is very much hoped that arrests for murder remain rare.

by Scott C :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:52pm

I'm not so sure. Money also makes some people think they can get away with anything.

The most likely thing to make a young male take fewer risks is marriage and planned children. There have been plenty of studies on this internationally and across cultures that go beyond correlation (e.g. it is not simply that more risk averse, less violent males get married).

by dmstorm22 :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:34pm

Which is another tragedy, because Hernandez has an 8-month old daughter and a fiancee. Just a moron at every level in this incident.

by Dean :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:45pm

"Money also makes some people think they can get away with anything."

I completely disagree. Money is a tool. Nothing more. There is a lot of mileage to be gained these days by criticizing money, but the entire line of reasoning is bullshit.

To the extent that money "changes" a person, it makes them more of what they already are.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:51pm

I tend to agree. Nice people often get more nice with a lot of money, and A-holes gape even larger when they get rich.

by JohnD (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 6:40pm

"Money also makes some people think they can get away with anything."

I completely disagree. Money is a tool. Nothing more. There is a lot of mileage to be gained these days by criticizing money, but the entire line of reasoning is bullshit.

I'd call that a straw man argument. Money/success/fame clearly does make some people think they're special. That's not the same as arguing that "money is the root of all evil," which seems to be what you have a problem with.

by rfh1001 :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 2:49am

I don't think it's a straw man at all. We are talking about some people after all.

Surely, you're not saying that money doesn't affect people's behaviour? It massively affects mine. As above, it tends to bring out what's in us anyway, but it also insulates us from the world. Lots of people who are rich and have always been kind of assume they're above the law because, in many day to day ways, they can buy a better quality of law for themselves.

A rich white kid doesn't get treated the same way for smoking a bong as a black kid in... Look, you know all this stuff.

When you add being in kind of bubble which college stars and pro footballers are in, I can absolutely see that in many cases you are going to get people who think that they can get away with things. Especially if they are, as AH seems to be, a moron.

by JohnD (not verified) :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 9:17am

My head hurts.

Scott C says: "Money also makes some people think they can get away with anything"

Dean says: "I completely disagree. Money is a tool. Nothing more."

I say: "Dean, you're smoking crack" (ok, that might be a paraphrase)

Who are you arguing with?

by rfh1001 :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:06am

Myself, basically. It's like I'm drunk. This thread has completely destroyed my a) comprehension skills and b) reason. If I did a fantasy draft right now, I'd probably pick Hernandez.

(I agree with you. I think Dean is nuts.)

by Pat (filler) (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 10:05am

I swear I've seen a study someplace that shows that they're actually well below prior socioeconomic status, but above current status. Can't find it now though, so... I guess that doesn't add much. :)

by Scott C :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:57pm

It probably depends on how far you go into 'prior'.

Prior at the high school stage and family? Or prior at the college stage -- compare to college players with similar high school status that did not make it to the NFL, for example; those that effectively diverge in life paths right at the NFL boundary.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:29am

Another thought for the victim. Dying at the murderous hand of another person is among the worst ways to leave this Vale of Tears, so I hope that Mr. Lloyd didn't have much time, if any, to realize it was going to come to that. Even more so if the motive is as it appears to be, the byproduct of an idiot's ravings about maintaining face, when Mr. Lloyd didn't show sufficient hostility towards somebody the idiot was mad at. None of us are getting out of here alive, but it'd be nice to not have to think, as you are about to embark on that journey, that the journey was starting rather more quickly than it otherwise would have, if not for the insipid rage of a moron.

by dryheat :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 8:42am

Apparently he texted his sister making sure she knew whom he left with. And it likely wasn't a name-drop. I think Mr. Lloyd had a good idea what could happen.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 10:02am

Make a note to avoid getting into vehicles at 3 AM, with armed men that you have an uneasy feeling about.

by Independent George :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 10:34am

Well, if they're armed, you probably don't have much choice in the matter.

On the other hand, if you're transporting someone whom you plan to murder, maybe you make a note that you should take away his phone first.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 10:55am

Well, obviously, you have a future as a criminal mastermind.

by Lance :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 11:44am

"Well, if they're armed, you probably don't have much choice in the matter."

One thing I've always wondered about that-- and let's all hope none of us are in that situation-- why go? Like, if he's armed and threatening to kill you unless you get in the car, it's likely that he's just going to kill you later. And then, there's a chance that he's prepared to hide evidence, etc., at the designated kill spot. So why not force the issue? The only reason to go is on the slim chance that you think he's not going to kill you once you get in the car. But if he was prepared to kill you if you DON'T get in the car... well, I don't know. Maybe you think you can talk your way out of things?

by Independent George :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:01pm

Psychologically, that's exactly the case - when faced with near certainty of imminent death versus future death, most people choose to enter the car and hope they can get out of it. It's an evolved behavior.

In practical terms, you're right - if you're dead anyway, you're better off doing the unpredictable and forcing your assailants to act outside of their plans. There's actually a significant chance that they'll panic and flee instead of killing you on the spot. This is especially true if you're out in the open. Some self-defense classes refer to it as "avoiding crime scene #2" - the point of contact with the assailant is crime scene #1, and the actual murder scene is crime scene #2.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:13pm

The most important skills a good self defense instructor can teach is to not quit, and that pain can be ignored in the short term. Thugs really do count on people giving up, and when a thug runs into some supposed victim who just won't stop fighting, the odds of survival increase significantly.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:04pm

You're scared, you desperately hope to be able to talk your way out of it, and most importantly, you haven't yet mentally committed to fighting for your life. Now, when the guy holding the pistol is an NFL tight end, your odds of being able to physically surprise him adequately, to allow for escape. vanish to about zero. However, when facing a less physically gifted would-be murderer, yes, you are likely better off making a desperate last stand on the grounds of your choosing. Easy to say, hard to do, however.

by GlennW :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:20pm

I suspect that Lloyd did not realize that the jig was up until after he'd entered the car. In fact the prosecution's timeline evidence including the time that neighbors recalled hearing gunshots indicates that the first text to Lloyd's sister came well after he was picked up in Dorchester (Boston), and the final text just moments before his death.


by GlennW :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:36pm

In fact the evidence also includes a text from Hernandez to Lloyd in Boston, telling Lloyd that the group had arrived and that Lloyd should come down to the car. That's certainly not something the average person is going to do if he feels even remotely in danger for his life.

by Andrew Clayton (not verified) :: Sun, 06/30/2013 - 2:47am

Dating Hernandez's fiancee's sister possibly gave him a sense of security. That's sort of gotten lost in the story, but this wasn't some random guy. Awfully cold-blooded to take out people with ties that close to you. Makes me suspect he'd killed before and possibly more times than just that drive by.

by justanothersteve :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 12:42pm

Ack! 204 comments. Training camp can't start soon enough.

by morganja :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:01pm

Previous double homicide now. Obviously this is a big deal. Maybe it's time for Shatz to edit the XP articles and especially titles. Or at least issue an apology or explanation.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:04pm

Apology for what?

by Hurt Bones :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:41pm

Previous double homicide now.

Heck he could have a score of bodies in his basement, but he still is released by an NFL this one time.

Obviously this is a big deal.

For news sites yes a big deal, but for a statistical site no, or no bigger than an nfl player facing a year long or career ending injury.

Maybe it's time for Shatz to edit the XP articles and especially titles.

The title is fine. Exactly the situation. An impact NFL player [Aaron Hernandez] was released by his team [the Patriots] following actions detrimental to the team [i.e. an arrest]

.Or at least issue an apology or explanation.

Can't fathom why either would be required.

by Lance :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 2:26pm

To the defense of the poster (though Aaron needn't apologize for anything), while this is a "stats" site, it has a great group of smart, loyal followers who are known for engaging in smart and interesting commentary on all sorts of things-- directly related to sports or not. And the site has a precedence for posting XPs about major not-really-football events when they have some possible football impact (a star QB being busted for a dog fighting ring; a star WR shooting himself in the leg while in a night club; etc., etc.).

In general, those XP posts are quick links to ESPN or some other news outlet. But by posting them, they allow for us-- the readers-- to get together and talk about the events in question. And during the summer doldrums, it's nice to have some football related topics to talk about with the same smart, loyal people we see all year commenting on Audibles, Word of Muth, etc., etc. After all, I go to see Audibles partly for the FO editors' comments, but just as much for all the funny, smart, or insightful comments from the FO regular posters. And I don't think I'm alone with that sentiment. (Or, maybe I am.)

The reality is that this was a big deal, and I'm 100% sure that it's generated way more traffic to FO than anything else the past 10 days. And that's good for the site's bottom line.

by Jimmy :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 2:49pm

As a foreigner I learn more about the legal background of stuff like this from the FO community than anywhere else. I appreciate it and it is part of the reason I love the site.

by James-London :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:56pm

Agreed- FO is much more than just stats.

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

by morganja :: Sat, 06/29/2013 - 2:45pm

The title "Hernandez did a Bad, Bad thing" and his snarky intros have proven to be in response to what should have been clear then, and is now, the worst murder case involving an active NFL player in history. If we wants his reputation, and Football Outsiders reputation, to be one of throwing a tantrum at these horrible murders because someone might say something negative about the Patriots, than by all means, leave it as it is.
The fact that no one has said anything negative about the Patriots in 300+ comments make his response seem all the worse.

by Dean :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 1:50pm

Yeah! How dare he wait to post an XP about a player getting arrested until the player is actually arrested! The nerve!

by GlennW :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 2:24pm

At this point if Aaron (Schatz, not Hernandez) posted an XP for every allegation made against Hernandez, the server might crash.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:16pm

And here I thought his worst-case scenario was Rae Carruth. It seems the nadir of NFL lawlessness might now be the "Aaron Hernandez".

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 2:22pm

With today's reports from multiple media outlets in Boston shedding light on Mr. Hernandez's possible activities from last summer, one can reasonably speculate that cutting him was the single thing that could be done to improve the health prospects of the other New England Patriots. Hell, if he had made it through this season, he may have done his intro spot on Sunday Night Football as, "Aaron Hernandez, Albert Anastasia University".

by Lance :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 2:30pm

Had to Google it, but nice.

"If you'd run better routs, you'd have cleared the zone so I could get open. But you didn't and we lost. Punk."


by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:09pm

Ya' can't make it up......

At this point, the dumb sonuvabitch better plead guilty, before a photo of him surfaces, holding an Italian made rifle on the sixth floor of the Texas School Book Depository.

by James-London :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 3:59pm

I'm no lawyer, but Hernandez looks doomed. With the evidence as it *appears* to be, wil he even have the chance to take a plea?

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

by dmstorm22 :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:19pm

I don't think there are many plea possibilities with a Murder One charge. Unless he can somehow pin this on the other two guys and they go along, he might get the charge dropped to a lesser one where a plea is available.

by Rocco :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:19pm

He always has the option of pleading guilty straight up and throwing himself to the courts. In reality it's in the prosecutor's best interest to offer a reasonable deal since there's always the chance the case could go south or the jury could be screwy. No one really wants to sit through a multi-day jury trial if it can be avoided.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:26pm

If the prosecution thinks he's been involved in previous murders (and they do, since they no doubt leaked what has been reported today), and given the evidence they appear to have with this murder, they really can't look at a plea to 2nd degree murder, and there is no leeway with the sentence on a murder in the first degree. Unless Hernandez suddenly becomes a non-sociopath, and simply pleads guilty because it is the right thing to do, or unless the police have botched the evidence collection in some fashion that harms admissibility or credibility, O.J.-style, this has to go to trial.

by Johnny Socko (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:34pm

I have precious little faith in the American legal system - especially when a case involves a famous defendant who hires an All-Star team of lawyers. The case immediately becomes a lawyering contest instead of a search for the truth. Jury nullification is always a strong possibility, so I'd be more than happy with any reasonable "guilty" deal that can be struck to prevent this case from going to trial.

by Rocco :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 9:29am

Yeah, if there's enough evidence to connect him to the 2012 murder the prosecution probably won't want to make a friendly offer and will roll the dice at trial. Still though, the prosecution at this point doesn't have a murder weapon and the only eye witness would likely be a cooperating defendant who may not be the most reliable (or believable) witness. There's some motivation there for the prosecution to make a deal.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:19pm

Well, you can always plead guilty, but I think murder one in Massachusetts carries a mandatory life without parole sentence, and you are right that with each passing day there seems to be an even more slim chance that the prosecution would even think about accepting a guilty plea for 2nd degree murder. Last week, I thought it was a possibility, but now? The state has very little reason, it would appear, to accept a lesser plea, especially if they think this numbnuts has been running his own damned Murder, Inc.

This looks like it has to go to trial, because there is nothing to settle on.

by GlennW :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:42pm

I think even the Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer could handle this prosecution.

Keep in mind that in Massachusetts (as in most states I would imagine), a jury can consider a second-degree murder conviction embedded within the first-degree charge. This gives the DA even less incentive to accept a deal. I heard our local sports-connected ambulance chaser Harry Manion (Boston's version of Lester Munson) opine this morning that there is little chance of a plea bargain around such a first-degree murder charge (and that was before these latest revelations came to light).

by Johnny Socko (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 4:54pm

Need I remind you of OJ? They found the victims blood on OJ's shoes and they still did not get a conviction. The possibilities for a screw-up include police incompetence and/or tampering, a poorly devised prosecution plan, and jury nullification. OJ's case had all of these and is therefore the shining example of how things can go horribly wrong once the case starts.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:05pm

You can't run a prosecutor's office with the assumption that the lawyers on your staff are all Marcia Clark, and the police officers who work the case are all Mark Fuhrman.

by Johnny Socko (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:09pm

Exhibit A: http://deadspin.com/watch-people-chant-innocent-as-aaron-hernandez-is-ta...

Yes, these are the kind of people who will be on the jury.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:24pm

Yes. You still can't run a prosecutor's office like that.

by GlennW :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:15pm

Right. If you're thinking that way, we might as well get rid of the 1st-degree charge for anything except as a bargaining chip (which would then quickly lose its value). And beyond the "something could always go wrong" caveat, there's also the matter of the public not tolerating routine plea bargains for more egregious crimes, especially ones with this much evidence at hand.

by Johnny Socko (not verified) :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:41pm

I only think this way when the case involves a famous defendant with the means to hire an All-Star defense team. The "something could go wrong" argument is exponentially more likely under these circumstances. Also, I'm not advocating a "routine plea bargain" to some minor offense. Nothing less than 30 years in the pokey would be acceptable in my mind.

by Will Allen :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 5:54pm

If you let a guy plead down to 2nd degree murder, for assassinating a witness to two previous murders (as it increasingly appears to be the case, in terms of motive), your political career is over, and it is open season on witnesses in Massachusetts, because even if you would reserve that treatment for these special cases, that isn't how it would be viewed by every thug with a gun who has witness problems. The risks you outline have certainly appeared in other murder trials, but sometimes those risks must be undertaken.

by Dean :: Thu, 06/27/2013 - 9:00pm

Not in Massachusetts. There, you can just talk about how we need to try to "undertand" the defendant. He's the real victim. We, as a society, are the real problem and we should be ashamed of ourselves for allowing an enviornment to exist which could create a monster capable of these actions.

That's how it works up there.

by Johnny Socko (not verified) :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 8:19am

So the Prosecutor's main goal should be to further his political career? Of course. Thank you for this civics lesson Will. I had forgotten the golden rule of American politics. Do whats best for your career and/or self interests first, followed way, way down the line by whats best for society.

by Will Allen :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 8:30am

Uh, I never said that's the way it "should" be. I described the world as it is.

If you think what's best for society is to have deliberate assassinations of witnesses bargained down to 2nd degree murder, well, we'll just have t agree to disagree.

by dmstorm22 :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:31am

Whether it is furthering your political career or protecting society, you should not let a possible 3-time murderer plead down to 2nd Degree or anything that is not 'life without the possibility of parole'

by Johnny Socko (not verified) :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 10:58am

OJ Simpson, Robert Blake, Don King, and Phil Spector are all in agreement with your philosophy.

by Will Allen :: Fri, 06/28/2013 - 11:18am

Because two celebrities are acquitted, you are willing to let any other rich and famous guy assassinate witnesses, and plead down to 2nd degree murder? Again, we will have to agree to disagree.