Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

13 Feb 2013

Quarterbacks By the Numbers

Gil Brandt has his own numerical measure for this year's college quarterback crop. It's sort of hard to tell how successful this formula is without any real background on it, but here's something to whet your appetite for the Lewin Career Forecast.

Posted by: Rivers McCown on 13 Feb 2013

11 comments, Last at 18 Feb 2013, 7:55am by samedayessay


by mjb :: Wed, 02/13/2013 - 5:22pm

After reading this I am left to wonder what statistic he is looking at that would say to him that MarQueis Gray could be an NFL Quarterback? From what I recall Gray was never a full-time starter at Minnesota, and bounced back-and-forth between QB and WR in his time there. I wouldn't think that he was the kind of prospect teams were looking at as a QB, but more as a WR, or because of his size a TE.

by Will Allen :: Wed, 02/13/2013 - 11:13pm

Brandt developed that stat after one of Gray's errant passes hit ol' Gil, right on the noggin, up in the press box.

Seriously, Gray has the accuracy of a so-so high school quarterback.

by Guido Merkens :: Thu, 02/14/2013 - 11:28am

My guess is that he had a spreadsheet of per-play statistics from last year, and just looked at the names it spit out. I don't have anything corresponding to Air Yards or Rusher Points, but last season Gray completed 58 percent of his passes, averaging 8.0 YPA, with a TD percentage of 8.5% and an interception percentage of 3.4%. Those stats aren't too shabby, especially for a guy who passes the eye test (6'4", 245 lbs, great athleticism).

The catch? He only attempted 59 passes this season, more than half of which were against UNLV. For his Minnesota career, he's a 51% passer with 7.0 ypa. If you wanted to compare him stylistically to a NFL QB, it would be Tim Tebow, except without any of the college production.

by sundown (not verified) :: Thu, 02/14/2013 - 11:34am

Sadly, his take may not be much crazier than some NFL teams. I saw Blaine Gabbert's stats from his last year in college the other day. No clue how anybody could have believed he was a top 10 pick based on those.

by Theo :: Wed, 02/13/2013 - 7:25pm

Does he include bowl games?

by Guido Merkens :: Thu, 02/14/2013 - 11:29am

Never gets old.

by Led :: Wed, 02/13/2013 - 7:53pm

If scouts are going to downgrade Landry Jones for lack of "enthusiasm" (and, one supposes, "swagger"), then I suspect he will be a very good value pick for somebody exploiting that market inefficiency. Also, comparing Glennon to Esiason is hardly a knock. Boomer had a very solid career and was arguably a top 5 QB over the last half of the 80s.

by Guido Merkens :: Thu, 02/14/2013 - 12:23pm

It's disgusting how blond QBs can only be compared to other blond QBs. I thought as a society we had moved past that.

by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 02/14/2013 - 6:58am

nx also ESA MVP 1988

by young curmudgeon :: Thu, 02/14/2013 - 9:38am

Oh No! Raiderjoe figured out my password!

by samedayessay (not verified) :: Mon, 02/18/2013 - 7:55am

That article is so interesting and makes a very nice image in my mind. Thank you for sharing this info with us!..