Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

31 Aug 2017

Texans Guarantee $49 Million to DeAndre Hopkins

Sarah Barshop of ESPN, per Adam Schefter, is reporting that the Houston Texans have signed wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to a five-year, $81 million contract extension with $49 million guaranteed. Hopkins' $49 million guaranteed is the largest for any wide receiver in the NFL.

The 27th overall draft pick in 2013, Hopkins went over 1,200 yards in both 2014 and 2015 before his numbers nose-dived trying to catch passes from Brock Osweiler last season. Since being drafted, Hopkins ranks 12th in the league in receptions, sixth in receiving yardage, and tied for 20th in receiving touchdowns.

His advanced stats are not as good -- he have never finished in the top ten in DYAR, nor the top 20 in DVOA -- but again, he has been playing with Osweiler, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Schaub.

Posted by: Vincent Verhei on 31 Aug 2017

5 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2017, 6:29am by Bright Blue Shorts


by Jimmy Oz :: Fri, 09/01/2017 - 2:58am

Yes, but we should understand the FO caveat that Hopkins' DVOA isn't Hopkins' DVOA, it's Hopkins' DVOA when catching passes in the Texans' offence that includes a Motley Crew of Josh McCowns at QB.

Secondly you left out Case Keenam, TJ Yates, Tom Savage, Ryan Mallett, and Brandon Weeden from said Motley Crew.

by Mr Shush :: Fri, 09/01/2017 - 4:31am

And indeed BJ Daniels, who never attempted a pass to Hopkins (his two attempts were to Akeem Hunt and Jaelen Strong), but did briefly share the field with him against the Titans in 2015.

But yes, Hopkins is an excellent receiver who's spent his career to date in a bad situation. Andre Johnson's DVOA wasn't exactly much good between 2004 and 2006 either.

by jtr :: Fri, 09/01/2017 - 8:48am

Based on what I'm seeing on OTC, he is getting just a little bit less annual value than Antonio Brown (16.2M/yr rather than 17), but basically twice as much guaranteed money. I think AB is the better receiver, but Hopkins got a slightly better contract.

It's interesting that NFL salaries seem to be "tiered" rather than truly proportional to player value. Players who are in the same tier tend to get the same contract, even if one is pretty much universally considered better than the other. I just noticed the other day that Russell Okung is playing on basically the same contract as Trent Williams, even though Williams is considered the superior tackle. And as we've been discussing in the Stafford thread, every above-average QB gets basically the same contract, 16% or so of the salary cap, which breaks records every season since the cap keeps going up.

by Jerry :: Sat, 09/02/2017 - 12:27am

In a capped environment, players are competing with their teammates at least as much as they are with other teams' players at the same position.

by Bright Blue Shorts :: Sat, 09/02/2017 - 6:29am

How you value a player is dependent on how you want to build your team.

New England WRs get paid about $6-7million while other teams are paying $10-16 million for Terrelle Pryor, Hopkins, AB, Julio Jones.

So it's quite possible for Okung to be getting similar to Williams. Guess the market for Williams will correct at his next renewal but of course that depends on his form and demand for him.