Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Jan 2011

ESPN: Analyzing the BCS Championship

Both Auburn and Oregon have great offenses, but in the latest piece for ESPN Insider, I looked at which team is more prone to funks (something that could obviously be key on Monday night) and where each offense's vulnerability most clearly lies.

Posted by: Bill Connelly on 07 Jan 2011

5 comments, Last at 12 Jan 2011, 5:24pm by jsram666


by cfn_ms :: Fri, 01/07/2011 - 2:34pm

Have you run S&P given the bowl results so far, and if so, have they changed materially? I'm curious whether the SOS adjustments due to bowl results would have bumped Oregon from the 20th spot higher, and if so how much.

by Bill Connelly :: Fri, 01/07/2011 - 4:16pm

I have not. I could not imagine 30 games or so would change much of the overall impression from a season of 700 games, so I figured I would just wait until all data was in.

by cfn_ms :: Fri, 01/07/2011 - 5:31pm

Mainly it goes to connectivity. Oregon's rating won't (or shouldn't) be affected by Cal-USC, Washington-Arizona etc. , since they play both teams. Ditto for the 500+ CFB games where they wouldn't have played either team involved.

However, bowl season has nothing but games that connect teams/leagues, and even more key, for the most part they connect teams who are in similar positions in their leagues (at least in AQ vs AQ bowls). This means that the other three Pac-10 bowl games and the other nine or so SEC bowl games should be expected to have a meaningful impact on the league ratings and thus the ratings of Oregon and Auburn.

Especially if there were any games that would suggest a substantial re-valuing of the teams involved (using S&P, that would presumably be:

for the Pac-10: Stanford's blowout of VA Tech and U-Dub's huge upset of Nebraska - given the pre-bowl rating difference b/w AZ and OK St I'd guess that wouldn't have created as much of a re-valuing

for the SEC: UGA losing to UCF, SC losing to FSU, MSU blowing out Michigan, maybe Bama blowing out Mich St (since it was by so much), and perhaps whatever comes out of the LSU-A&M and Pitt-Kentucky games

That said, it's pretty reasonable to wait until the end of bowl season to re-evaluate things. Would have been interesting if it had been looked at prior to that, that's all.

by sethburn :: Fri, 01/07/2011 - 10:03pm

I have to agree with cfn_ms. These are the games that connect and potentially calibrate the teams.

by jsram666 :: Wed, 01/12/2011 - 5:24pm

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