Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

12 Mar 2012

ESPN: History Not On South Carolina's Side

How much does historical success (or lack thereof) impact the national championship race? There are breakthrough seasons turned in every year from programs outside of the elite class, but the national championships are won by top-20 all-time programs year in and year out. South Carolina is getting a bit of way-too-early preseason attention, but their all-time resume is awfully thin. Does that really make a difference? I use all-time winning percentage data and Program FEI ratings to try to answer that question.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 12 Mar 2012

5 comments, Last at 22 Sep 2012, 8:02am by Mancreature


by Colin M. (not verified) :: Mon, 03/12/2012 - 7:15pm

I would say it impacts the national championship heavily.
The constant scrutiny and friction a non-BCS school has to endure due to their low early season rankings proves to be too much (TCU, Houston), while a talented BCS school with less recent success can become favorites very easily (i.e. Auburnn).
Can't we just all agree it's not only "way-too-early" to start ranking a favorite, but also way too early to give out a top 25 in the first week of the season?

Sincerely a Gamecocks fan (don't jinx us!)

by justanothersteve :: Mon, 03/12/2012 - 9:46pm

So, was Miami a top 20 program pre-Schnellenberger? And Florida never won it before Spurrier. All I'm sayin' is it could happen.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 03/14/2012 - 11:18am

I suspect their chances are higher than Miami (OH), which is apparently a top-20 all-time program.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Wed, 03/14/2012 - 11:20am

I also like the fun anomalies, like Idaho: second worst program in the list, and yet surprisingly good against top-10 teams. In fact, they do better against top-10 teams than against non top-10 teams.

by Mancreature (not verified) :: Sat, 09/22/2012 - 8:02am

It says Boise State is 1-0 all-time against top10 teams, but they beat #10 VT in 2010 and #4 TCU in the bowl game the season before. Are bowl games not counted?