Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Aug 2013

ESPN: Five Programs Still Ascending

Since 2008, only 17 programs have seen their Program FEI ratings climb at the conclusion of each season. That list includes the healthiest programs in the country, the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oregon Ducks, two favorites to contend for the national championship this fall. Alabama and Oregon have lost only 17 combined games over the past five seasons and are the two most likely teams to go undefeated in 2013 according to our FEI projections. Five other programs discussed in this article are expected to continue to elevate their program profile, including potential national contenders and teams looking to simply take another step forward in conference play.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 08 Aug 2013

2 comments, Last at 23 Aug 2013, 11:04am by mkrand01


by IrishBarrister :: Thu, 08/08/2013 - 7:55pm

This article begs the question, at least in my mind, whether the rate of change in PFEI has any correlation to future FEI.

PFEI has a strong correlation to future performance, e.g., average FEI for years N-4 through year N has a R^2 correlation of .7 (I'm guessing) to FEI in year N+1. My question then is whether the rate of change in FEI from year N-4 through N have any correlation to FEI in year N+1? Intuitively, it would seem that a team with PFEI of 0.1 and a five year delta of 0.2 (starting from 0.0 and ending at 0.2) would be significantly better the next year than a team with a PFEI of 0.1 and a five year delta of 0.0.

Your article seems to suggest the answer is yes, but my curiosity compels me to ask.

by mkrand01 :: Fri, 08/23/2013 - 11:04am