Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

15 Oct 2013

ESPN: Projecting The BCS Stretch Run

We ran projections for the remainder of the year based on our current FEI ratings to identify the teams with the best chances of remaining a top contender down the stretch. As important as the first release of the BCS standings this weekend may be, we wanted to see which teams would be expected to hold their position and move up as the season wears on. We calculated expected regular-season records based on individual game win likelihoods at two stages down the stretch: through the next four weeks, and through the end of the regular season.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 15 Oct 2013

1 comment, Last at 16 Oct 2013, 12:52pm by cfn_ms


by cfn_ms :: Wed, 10/16/2013 - 12:52pm

I'd also posted a set of midseason simulation projections - http://compu-picks.com/2013Season/20131015_Midseason_Report_01_Simulatio... - might be interesting to compare notes.

FWIW I'm personally a Baylor skeptic and think they'll fall back to earth sooner or later, but then again my computer has usually been smarter than me so we'll see.