Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

28 Oct 2013

ESPN: Too Early to Fret BCS Chaos?

How likely are we to have a glut of undefeated teams at the end of the season? Not particularly. BCS chaos has been a common refrain over the years, but it is too early to fret over how many undefeated teams are still hanging around at the end of October. Some of the biggest games of the regular season lie in the weeks ahead, and many of the biggest BCS shakeups over the years have traditionally come in November.

That said, we have reached the tipping point in the regular season when teams currently positioned at the top of the BCS standings are more likely than not to stay there. According to our latest FEI ratings, three AQ conference teams have a better than 50 percent chance of remaining undefeated this year.

All eight current undefeated teams are ranked in this ESPN Insider piece according to the likelihood they will remain undefeated. As a bonus, we also break down the win-out likelihoods for the current one-loss contenders.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 28 Oct 2013