Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

30 Jul 2014

ESPN: College Win Total Best Bets

Most books across Las Vegas have released college football win-total betting lines, which serve as a strong indicator of the level of success that power programs are expected to achieve in the upcoming season. The favorites in the College Football Playoff race, according to the Las Vegas Hotel SuperBook, are the Florida State Seminoles, Alabama Crimson Tide, Oregon Ducks, Oklahoma Sooners and Ohio State Buckeyes. Each program has a regular-season win-total line of at least 10.5 wins. Our drive-based FEI projections agree with Vegas' projections. Those five programs are the contenders we project as most likely to go 10-2 or better this fall.

FEI projections don't line up with the LVH across the board, however. We compared those projections to the LVH lines to find which teams were the best bets to outperform and underperform season win total expectations in 2014.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 30 Jul 2014

2 comments, Last at 06 Aug 2014, 9:22pm by cfn_ms


by Dr. Gamera :: Thu, 07/31/2014 - 12:54pm

It's not the LVH any more; it's the Westgate Las Vegas. I just stayed there earlier this month.

A fun game to play while I was there was "spot things that still say LVH", of which there were many. I tried to play "spot things that still say Hilton", but failed. More amusing is "spot the vestiges of the Star Trek Experience", which closed in 2008, but which left behind substantial themed interior design elements (the closest bathroom to the front desk is in the "preview" area, which still feels like it's on the Enterprise.)

by cfn_ms :: Wed, 08/06/2014 - 9:22pm

FWIW, my level 4's (highest confidence), as posted in my preview, are:

Auburn Over 9.5 +125 or better (5dimes or Cantor)

BYU under 8.5 +220 (5dimes) or under 9 +130 or better (5dimes or cantor)

Kansas under 3 +105 or better (5dimes or cantor)

Miss St over 7.5 +115 or better (5dimes, though LVH is close at +110)

Stanford over 8.5 +120 or better (LVH)

Texas over 8 +155 or better (5dimes) or over 8.5 +225 (5dimes)

UNC under 7 +250 (Cantor)

USC over 9.5 +185 (Cantor)

for your specific picks, I'd say:

Iowa over 8 - agree, though you have to lay around -135
Mizzou over 7.5 - agree, though you have to line shop; vig varies by book, up to -140
Stanford over 8.5 - agree, especially if you can find plus odds (LVH plus odds, Bovada 5dimes and cantor are negative odds)

UCLA under 9.5 - agree, especially if you can find plus odds
Ole Miss under 8.5 - agree, though you have to lay around -180; 7.5 wins is the more or less even vig point
TCU under 8 - basically agnostic on this one