Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

10 Mar 2014

ESPN: Preliminary FEI Projections

Spring practices have begun at college football programs across the country, and early 2014 projections are shining a spotlight on a handful of teams that have question marks to answer in the coming weeks. Our Football Outsiders F/+ preseason projections won't be complete until after spring position battles settle themselves, but some of the key ingredients are already in place, and we've begun to formulate a pecking order for the fall.

Our drive-based FEI ratings include a number of transition factors that remain to be calculated, but the core piece of the formula is the annual Program FEI ratings. Program FEI is a measure of five years of drive efficiency data, weighted for more recent seasons, and it has a strong correlation to the next year's success.

At this point in the offseason, we've also included returning starter data and a specific factor that accounts for the replacability of the quarterback for those teams that are looking for a new starter this fall.

Here is a look at the top 10 teams for 2014 according to our pre-spring FEI projection model, including their likelihood to finish the regular season 11-1 or better, the presumed benchmark for college football playoff contenders this fall.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 10 Mar 2014