Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

10 Jul 2014

ESPN: Program Future Projections

ESPN Insider released its College Football Future Power Rankings on Wednesday. A panel of Insider experts voted in five categories to determine the top 25 college football programs during the next three years, and we wanted to find out if our data projections agreed.

One of the foundational elements of our annual Football Outsiders projections is our weighted five-year program ratings. According to our research, program trajectory helps forecast future performance better than previous-year data -- and not just for the upcoming season, but for seasons beyond. We calculated future winning percentages based on current Program FEI data, recent program trajectory and projected schedule strength, then adjusted the FPR methodology to identify the potential for each program to be in the hunt for the four-team College Football Playoff at least once during the next three seasons.

Posted by: Brian Fremeau on 10 Jul 2014