Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Dec 2010

ESPN: Fantasy Matchups, Week 16

The Championship Week Fantasy Matchups column is here. And judging from the amount of e-mails I've gotten already this week from our fantasy football answering service, it seems like a lot of FO readers are actually in their championship games, so good luck everyone!

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 23 Dec 2010

11 comments, Last at 25 Dec 2010, 10:57pm by bigDOC


by Brendan (not verified) :: Thu, 12/23/2010 - 2:20pm

Who do I start?
Hakeem Nicks @GB
Mike Wallace home vs. CAR
Mike TOlbert @ CIN

Have Nicks now, but debating inserting Wallace against CAR.


by Eddo :: Thu, 12/23/2010 - 2:24pm

The Steelers will likely run a very boring game against the Panthers - go up early, then run-run-run. You're basically banking on Wallace getting an early touchdown.

Nicks is on par with Wallace, I'd say. The Packers have a good defense, and he's so streaky.

Tolbert, with Gates out, is definitely the Chargers' touchdown machine if they're not scoring from midfield.

In all, you really have three high-risk, high-reward choices. Tolbert's probably the "safest", but also the one with the least upside. How strong is the rest of your lineup, compared to your opponent? Are you favored to win? If so, I'd go for the more guaranteed points with Tolbert. Will you need some above-projection performances to outscore your opponent? In that case, one of the WRs (probably Nicks).

by Mike W :: Thu, 12/23/2010 - 6:06pm

I go Tolbert, Wallace, Nicks.

by Uncle Jessie (not verified) :: Thu, 12/23/2010 - 4:38pm

Wallace gets the start out of those 3. Carolina's secondary is pretty weak and the corner that will be lining up against Wallace has allowed 78% completion percentage. While it is true Pitt will blow out Carolina, Wallace will definitely play a role. Look at the other games where Pitt has blown out its opponent. Week 3 against tampa they won 38-13 and Wallace had 100 yds and 2 TDs. Week 11 against Oak they won 35-3 and Wallace had 116 yds with a touchdown.
Nicks is playing against the 3rd ranked Packers pass defense and Tolbert has to split carries with Mathews who has had an increasing role the past couple of weeks. This is where championships are made.
Good Luck.

by BJR :: Thu, 12/23/2010 - 7:58pm

Wallace doesn't have to be targetted many times to put up big numbers, so yeah.

Also, you can't just assume that it will be a blowout and that PIT will be in full clock-killing mode for the whole second half. CAR's defence is not a shambles, and could conceivably keep them in the game. And PIT desperately needs the win, so they won't be pulling any stunts until the game is well in hand.

by Mike W :: Thu, 12/23/2010 - 6:01pm

Big Ben or Eli?

Seriously, I'm thinking of picking up Grossman or Tebow.

by Uncle Jessie (not verified) :: Thu, 12/23/2010 - 6:54pm

Tebow against the worst passing defense in the league. Bonus he will get you some extra points for rushing yards.

by Red Hedgehog :: Thu, 12/23/2010 - 9:47pm

So for champion week, my QB options are Kerry Collins, David Garrard, Jason Campbell, or Rex Grossman. My league gives 1 point per 20 yards passing, 6 per passing TD, -3 per INT, -1 per sack.

I'm leaning Garrard, but am seriously considering Grossman.

by pfalk122588 :: Fri, 12/24/2010 - 9:45am

Guys, I need some Advice.
I'm in the Championships, and I don't know who to start for my two Running Back slots and my flex, which in this league is W/R/T.
Currently I've got:
Legarette Blount (SEA) & LeSean McCoy (MIN) at RB
Ryan Torain (@JAC) at W/R/T

Options on my Bench:
Danny Woodhead (@BUF)
Brandon Marshall (DET)
Brian Westbrook (@STL)
Tashard Choice (@ARI)
My league scoring: Its six points for TD(all positions) and 20 yards per point for rushing/receiving yards. There are fractional points.
Who should I start?
I was thinking about Marshall, but he seems a little too boom or bust for me to put the fate of the championships in his hands.

by Mike W :: Fri, 12/24/2010 - 3:07pm

Torain is a slam dunk, as is McCoy.

Blount is my choice for flex, but with your TD-heavy scoring, I think Choice would be an ok option.

by bigDOC (not verified) :: Sat, 12/25/2010 - 10:57pm

I have maclin, woodhead, & branch.
who do i start?