Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Dec 2011

ESPN: Week 14 Fantasy Matchups

For many, it's fantasy postseason time, so I take one last look at DVOA-based strengths of schedule. Elsewhere, after 13 weeks, I finally get to selfishly feature 49ers in the player capsules.

Posted by: Danny Tuccitto on 07 Dec 2011

2 comments, Last at 21 Dec 2011, 1:01am by Danny Tuccitto


by Mike12 (not verified) :: Sat, 12/10/2011 - 5:18pm

Why is Darren Sproles always a negative in these projections? I mean seriously, seems like every week hes in the negative section. Pretty ridiculous seeing as hes probably had 1/2 bad games all year.

by Danny Tuccitto :: Wed, 12/21/2011 - 1:01am

It's because "number of touches" is such a huge predictor of fantasy scoring for RBs, and projecting a RB's touches is part of the analysis. Sproles only gets like 30% of NO's RB touches, give or take 10% in a given week depending on the matchup. Generally, if he doesn't score a TD, and/or if you're not in a PPR league (non-PPR is the FO default), he's only a mediocre fantasy option.

TDs aren't all that predictable (esp. for a receiving RB), and Sproles' touch projection tends to be low in comparison to other RBs, so the extent to which his matchup affects his scoring is very low.