Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Oct 2009

ESPN: How Bad the Bad Teams Can Get

Does it seem like 2009 has more awful teams than ever before? As this ESPN article points out, the difference isn't that big, and the bad teams aren't as bad as you think. Schedule strength means things are going to get better... except for Tampa Bay and Washington.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 29 Oct 2009

4 comments, Last at 30 Oct 2009, 12:10pm by Michael LaRocca


by zlionsfan :: Thu, 10/29/2009 - 6:07pm

I understand and appreciate your logic and research, but man, sometimes I watch the Lions this year and I just don't feel like they're any better than last season. DVOA would suggest the same thing ... by this point last season, the Lions had had one positive game (against Minnesota). This season, the Lions had a game that frankly never happened (at Green Bay). I have to thank Jim Zorn for somehow making the victory possible at Ford Field.

I can see that they have more talent, and I believe they will get better, but it just doesn't seem like it right now ... I would guess at a minimum that Bucs and Titans fans would be right there with me.

by reinhard (not verified) :: Thu, 10/29/2009 - 7:08pm

Calvin Johnson being out doesn't really help the Lions either. When you take away one of the best players in the league from one of the worst teams... I thought he could have really helped against GB, considering their man-to-man schemes

by huston720 :: Fri, 10/30/2009 - 10:58am

Excellent article Aaron, in fact I pointed this out in the comments for this weeks DVOA, not sure if you saw that or not. I've been harping on this point to many of my fellow Browns fans, that as rough as this season seems so far the schedule gets easier and this team is more likely to be a 5 or 6 win team than a 2 win team. Though I would be a little more confident about that with Quinn at qb versus Anderson.

On the flip side I am quite happy not to be a Bucs or Redskins fan. Though I can sympathize since the Browns had the toughest schedule last year I believe, and have tended to be in the top half in terms of difficulty.

by Michael LaRocca (not verified) :: Fri, 10/30/2009 - 12:10pm

The last time I posted here, I was living in China and the Carolina Panthers were losing a Super Bowl. Oh, how far the home team has fallen.

I lived in Tampa during 26 straight losses. Stinking that bad can be fun. But Carolina's just mired in mediocrity, grateful only that the Weinke days are over. The fans can't even afford a subscription to ESPN Insider.