Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

10 Aug 2010

ESPN: Plus-Minus For 2010 Fantasy Football

Our ESPN feature this week gives a very broad outline of the plus-minus research introduced in this year's book/on the website, and then uses it to project some outlying wideouts in fantasy football heading into 2010.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 10 Aug 2010

2 comments, Last at 10 Aug 2010, 8:50pm by Brooks


by SammyG (not verified) :: Tue, 08/10/2010 - 1:36pm

Bill, very interesting work. I'm curious about your conclusions though. For Wayne, does anyone project him to have more than 94 catches, 1200 yards, and 9 touchdowns?

Roddy White had the ball forced to him last year so his catch rate was poor. If they have other weapons and don't force him the ball, his catch rate may go up but wouldn't you expect his yardage/touchdown total to drop given that he won't be the recipient of as many passes? I think an interesting follow-up for the Roddy White example would be to look at how catch rate is affected by the percentage of plays a player is targeted, and if catch rate reverts for players who are targeted frequently 2 (or more) years in a row.

by Brooks :: Tue, 08/10/2010 - 8:50pm

Sammy, that question about Roddy White was my reaction too (in fact, as of now, the only comment on the espn page is mine, asking that same question). If the Falcons force fewer balls to Roddy White, will that offset the suspected regression to the mean of his plus-minus?