Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

26 Sep 2008

ESPN Numbers Crunching: Week 4

Check out how splits and stats are affecting each matchup on Sunday, including how some trends from 2007 are carrying over to 2008.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 26 Sep 2008

2 comments, Last at 29 Sep 2008, 1:46am by Mystyc


by Pat (filler) (not verified) :: Fri, 09/26/2008 - 7:43pm

Note: Continued lack of failure by Orton is not guaranteed in the continental United States or Alaska.

Clearly, all Orton needs to do is make it to the Pro Bowl, where he's guaranteed to succeed!

by Mystyc :: Mon, 09/29/2008 - 1:46am

Does specific-down performance really mean anything? I mean, the reason an outlier of third-down performance is likely to correct itself the following year is because (I thought) it was an artifact of a smaller sample size than other downs. Meaning, it's a fluke, and the unit in question isn't actually "better" on those plays, but just luckier/unluckier.

I'd love to see a down performance comparison between the first and second halves of the season, which is the litmus test that shows fumble recoveries are random. Does being disproportionately great on second down in the early goings correlate to the same performance later on?