Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

06 Oct 2008

2008 Quick Reads: Week 5

Some history on Chris Perry's fumbleitis and a look at the bizarre splits of Ben Roethlisberger highlight Quick Reads.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 06 Oct 2008

35 comments, Last at 07 Oct 2008, 5:42pm by syl


by JasonK :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 7:28pm

The data seems to be missing a column for DeAngelo Williams-- read literally, it says that he had 25 rushing TDs.

by the silent speaker (not verified) :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 8:57pm

Yep, he doesn't have a team.

by Guido Merkens :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 9:25pm

Not nearly as impressive as his 58 receiving TDs, although they did average only 1/58th of a yard long each... who is this, robo-Williams?

by Anonymous (not verified) :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 8:05pm

Hester's day as a receiver:

* 8 yards on 3rd and 4
* 8 yards on 3rd and 4
* 32 yards on 1st and 10
* 12 yards (TD) on 2nd and 3
* 6 yards on 2nd and 10
* incomplete on 3rd and 3

That 5 successes out of 6. How did that rate for the week?

by Joseph :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 8:32pm

As a sheer guess, prob. top 10. I don't know how much opponent adjustments are factored in at this point in the season, but playing the Lions can't help.

by Joseph :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 8:32pm

As a sheer guess, prob. top 10. I don't know how much opponent adjustments are factored in at this point in the season, but playing the Lions can't help.

by Joseph :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 8:33pm

As a sheer guess, prob. top 10. I don't know how much opponent adjustments are factored in at this point in the season, but playing the Lions can't help.

by tally :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 8:41pm

Don't know if the fumble he had on a punt return factored into calculations, either.

by tally :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 8:34pm

Way to go on that Matt Christopher reference, but wasn't the book about baseball? The Kid Who Only Hit Homers, or some such.

by Temo :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 8:43pm

Good catch!

by TomC :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 10:26pm

Crack! The little white pill sailed through the air...

by Jimmy :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 9:58pm

Cheers for the extra commmentary on each player. I know it is impossible to watch every game in such a small space of time, but seeing a comment on most players statistical breakdown (especially QBs) is nice. I know nothing can compare to seeing a good breakdown of a player from a trusted film analysist, but who has one of those (outside of NFL teams).

Thankyou for the extra effort, it is appreciated.

by E :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 9:45am

I found it funny that one of the few QBs that did not have any associated commentary was Sage Rosenfels, who finished with 1 DYAR but arrived there in a strnage way: +22 passing, -21 rushing (only 1 other QB was plus or minus even 10 DYAR). Of course, maybe the reason for lack of commentary was because it was so obvious- we all know by now that a flying helicopter run to blow the game was as bad as any passing Sage did on Sunday.

by Independent George :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 10:51pm

Wow, Kimbo Slice is mainstream. Personally, I'd still never make fun of the guy while writing under my real name. Or, apparently, even under an assumed name.

by Josh :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:56am

I have the utmost respect for Kimbo Slice.

by The Ninjalectual :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:48pm

There is no way Kimbo Slice would fight you. He knows he's too dangerous.

[/Redskins homerism]

by tylerdolphin :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 11:02pm

Im surprised Ronnie Brown didnt crack the top 5. He seemed to always get the yardage Miami needed on Sunday. Regardless, I think its safe to say hes back.

by Lou :: Mon, 10/06/2008 - 11:53pm

wow did the discussion format change again?

if so i think i like it. its much more condensed. still i wish it was easier to distinguish between comments. And i still don't like nested comments.

edit: nm everything looks like it did now.

by drobviousso :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:22am
by Staubach12 :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:35am

Is Big Ben's left-right disparity on short passes consistent from game to game?

by Staubach12 :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:47am

"...if Jones could do that and the Cowboys still didn't put him on the field half the time, well, Wade Phillips is crazy."
"We're not really sure why people were leaving Williams for dead. Sure, Jonathan Stewart looks great, but Williams also averaged 5 yards per carry last year on a team that threw the ball at a remedial high school level. They should split time in the backfield, but just because one Carolina back might be a superstar and one might merely be very good isn't a reason to disparage the latter."

Bill, do you see the contradiction between these statements? Yes, Jones should get a few more carries, but it's not as if Barber sucks. I'm fine with bringing Jones along slowly. We really don't know how many carries the guy can handle.
The Cowboys drafted him thinking he would be the next Westbrook (they've said this to the press). Similar style of play, build, speed score, etc. I think they are worried that Jones might get dinged up like Westbrook if he takes on too heavy of a load. Since they have another very good RB, why should they risk Jones' health this early in the season?

by Footballfan :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 1:14am

Weird split: Roethlisberger's success rate on short passes to the right was 73.3 percent (11-of-15); on the left side, it was 36.3 percent (4-of-11). Just like NBA teams will try to force a point guard left or right if he's uncomfortable with the ball going one way or another, NFL defensive coordinators will try and do the same with quarterbacks.

Sounds like Small sample Size. According to yahoo stats, Roethlisberger has a career 107.7 Passer rating to the right. A 109% passer rating to the left. good ol football outsiders (new england lovers) trying to piss on Roethlisberger after a special gut wrenching performance by him on a monday night. It's getting old FO.

by dbostedo :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 9:56am

One question : How does pointing out an unusual left/right split, and noting that coordinators tend to take advantage of that kind of thing, disparage Roethlisberger?

by tuluse :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 10:09am

Or have anything to do with the Patriots?

by hector :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 1:28am

Felix Jones isn't ready for big-time action?

Hello, Mr. Strawman.

Matt Cassel's big bomb to Randy Moss was a throw into double coverage; it just so happened that a half-second after Cassel released the ball, Walt Harris (shading Moss deep while Nate Clements covered underneath) tripped in his backpedal and Moss had an easy catch for a score. Take that pass and use it as an indicator of Cassel's ability to succeed at your own peril.

I re-watched the play about five times right now (ahh, short cuts) and it sure looked to me like Harris was beat on the play, stumble or no stumble. Nonetheless, I remain very skeptical on Cassel, too.

It's not as if the Patriots have shown great cover skills this year, so O'Sullivan going 2-for-10 on third and fourth down shows that talk of JTOS being a Pro Bowl-level quarterback in this system is a little exaggerated.

Goodnight, Mr. Strawman.

by Arson55 :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 2:03am

Is this a reference I should get?

by hector :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 2:33am
by Arson55 :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 3:59am

Ah, thanks. I get you now.

by Kellerman :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:16pm

I suspect that the "Ryan Fitzpatrick show" against the Browns frightened Mike Brown, Marvin Lewis enough that they decided to use Palmer until he collapses. In fairness, there is every indication that Palmer is Favre-like in his unwillingness to come out of the game. It's really a pity that a top-5 QB is largely being wasted. I don't see why he wants to put it on the line for a team that can't or won't protect him.

But the weirdness of the Bengals' actions is also reflected by another move made this week in effectively dumping Kenny Watson for Cedric Benson. Watson is no pro-bowler but he is the kind of player championship teams are full of: Competent runner and receiver, excellent blocker, special teams demon, solid citizen in the locker room. Benson seems like a great talent with no intangibles. By the way, nobody knows how Rudi Johnson looked in training camp because he barely stepped onto the field and never played.

The Bengals now have 3 running backs on the roster: Perry, Benson and Mauai(sp?).

The homer in me says the Bengals offensive players have too much talent to continue to play so poorly, but my rational mind says 2-14 is all too likely.

by Bowl Game Anomaly :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:22pm

The Bengals cut Kenny Watson? He must be injured or something. It just doesn't make sense otherwise.

(Formerly "The McNabb Bowl Game Anomaly")

by Tim R :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:32pm

The Bengals cut Watson because he was going to miss the Dallas game with an injury. They're expected to resign him.

by zlionsfan :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 12:58pm

I don't think Orton's performance against the Lions belongs in that first paragraph. It should be obvious by now how bad that team is: Orton's numbers simply reinforce that.

If Lovie wants to use that game as "proof" that Orton is a solid QB, that's fine with me. I'll be happy to watch him struggle against the NFL defenses on his schedule this season.

by Eddo :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 1:48pm

I'd say Orton's explosion against the Lions reinforces two things:
1) The Lions suck.
2) Orton is developing into an adequate (at the very least) NFL quarterback. He is impressing more and more each week, and a good NFL QB should have an awesome day in Detroit, something Brian Griese couldn't do last year.

To reiterate, here's the text just below Orton's stat line in the article:
"Yes, it was the Lions, and this game won't look as impressive once the opponent adjustments are full strength. Even against Detroit, though, averaging nearly 9 yards an attempt is an excellent day. Orton had eight consecutive successful pass plays on first downs, picking up more than 5 yards on each play. He's significantly better now compared with two years ago, and that's a big reason why the Bears lead the NFC North."

Can we put to bed this "Orton sucks LOL neckbeard!" mantra that uses evidence from three years ago and ignores what he's done this year? The new mantra should be "the Bears have an average QB situation now". That, combined with a much-improved running game and a defense reverting to pre-2007 form, is enough for the Bears to succeed.

by syl (not verified) :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 5:42pm

Orton sucks LOL neckbeard!

by Tim R :: Tue, 10/07/2008 - 1:25pm

Scrap thatm, PFT just reported that Watson was cut to make space for Chris Henry for Sunday's game but signed an agreement to be resigned by the Bengals this week I think.