Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

09 Oct 2008

Week 6 Fantasy Matchups

It's Frerotte time!

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 09 Oct 2008

32 comments, Last at 12 Oct 2008, 12:48pm by abernethyj


by brian (not verified) :: Thu, 10/09/2008 - 5:40pm

"Go ahead! Start Addai against the best run defense in football. Put him in your lineup against a defense that hasn't allowed a back to reach 20 fantasy points since Week 12 in 2005"

Didn't Addai score 3 TD's against them just last year? He didn't have much yardage. But, I'm surprised you missed that.

by Eddo :: Thu, 10/09/2008 - 6:16pm

"Hint: Wait till Nov. 10, after he's played Tennessee, before you anoint him as the Bears' quarterback of the future."
So we're only going to judge a quarterback by using the game(s) he plays against the league's top defense?

Well then, I guess Joe Montana wasn't the 49ers' savior, since he only went 17/29 for 160 yards against the 1985 Bears. And that Brett Favre wasn't the Packers' savior, since he went 20/38 for 196 yards and 4 interceptions against the 2002 Buccaneers.

Not saying Orton is going to be the Bears' savior by any means, but come on.

by MCS :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 8:20am

It has been said time-and-again that the FO postings on other websites are not held to the same standard as the postings here. Allow the guys a little hyperbole for the sake of making a point. Sheesh.

by Eddo :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 9:28am

True, but you would think that if FO wants to draw readers with the articles on ESPN, they would want to use the same standard. I think that the writers may be trying too hard to say something clever when they're published on mainstream sites, unfortunately sacrificing accuracy.

Not that I'll stop reading, though. And by the way, this is one of my favorite pieces every week, especially for the ones on mainstream sites. Actual analysis on espn.com?!?!?

by MCS :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 10:26am

As poor as statements like these are by FO standards, they are a dramatic improvement over the rest of the tripe on ESPN.

by DGL :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 10:28am

Actually, I read it as, "Don't extrapolate performance against the worst defense in the league as a long-term trend -- see how he plays a good defense as well as a bad defense."

by roguerouge :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 10:43am

Seconded. The message was that the better measure of Orton's quality is when we have data for him against both excellent and extremely poor pass defenses.

by MarkV :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 2:09pm

I think the point is that its easy to look good against bad defenses and dont jump to conclusions about games against them, because it takes a combination of looks to project with any accuracy.

by Bill Barnwell :: Sat, 10/11/2008 - 10:09am

The point I was making was that judging a quarterback by his performance against the best defense in the league is as silly as judging him by his performance (or lack thereof) against the best.

by Red Hedgehog (not verified) :: Thu, 10/09/2008 - 6:32pm

Frerotte is tempting, though I'm surprised no Giants players got any love.

Now I have to decide if I make the crazy move of benching Reggie Wayne for Devin Hester.

by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 11:43am

It's not SO crazy...but I'd probably play Wayne this week. I would probably be struggling with this as well if I had both on my roster.

by Anonymous (not verified) :: Thu, 10/09/2008 - 7:00pm

What do you do: Peyton's you're starter, and Ferrotte's on the bench...

Would you pick him up and sub him for Manning?

by abernethyj :: Thu, 10/09/2008 - 8:27pm

Depends on who you're dropping. If they're both on my team, I'm starting Frerotte this week.

by The Ninjalectual :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 8:45am

Peyton Manning or Jason Campbell?

[/Redskins homerism]

by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 11:38am

Gotta go with Campbell this week.

by abernethyj :: Thu, 10/09/2008 - 8:30pm

Do I start Lance Moore or Donald Driver this week? Moore's been better, but Driver has a tasty matchup this week against the Seahawks.

by laberge (not verified) :: Thu, 10/09/2008 - 10:55pm

Do I bench Reggie Wayne for Santana Moss? This is going to bother me all weekend.

by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 1:03am

I would have no problem benching Wayne for Moss this week.

by S :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 10:09am

All right, Thomas Jones or Maurice Jones-Drew. I thought both had favorable match-ups (MJD vs. Den, TJ vs. Cincy), but that didn't show up in the numbers. MJD has the O-line mess and is still splitting carries with Fred Taylor. Who's the play?

by cjfarls :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 11:33am

I'm a Denver fan, and I agree completely with thinking MJD has a decent matchup (I'm starting him in one of my leagues). However, in your case, I would definitely go with TJ.

The danger of Denver (which actually has a decent run DVOA), is that they run a scheme where they've decided to live with 8-9 folks in the box and rely on Champ/Bly to shut down the opposing pass offense... which given a lousy pass-rush, means a lousy Pass-D and mediocre run-D.

Basically, although the run-D talent in Denver is awful, they scheme to cover it. This could in theory change any given game where they pull the extra guy from the box, but you'll always have the danger of them stcking the box and looking respectable vs. the run.

Cincy is not respectable against the run ever...

by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 11:40am

I'm with cjfarls, start Jones this week over Jones-Drew.

by Bywater Brat (not verified) :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 11:00am

Any way to know if Henderson or Moore will be lined up across from Asomduga most of the time?

by Drunkmonkey :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 1:09pm

Knowing the Raiders, I would expect them to line Hall up across from Henderson. Moore isn't quite the fastest of the two, and the Raiders always seem to give the fastest guy to Hall.

by Becephalus :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 1:35pm

Last year I lucked into Brady in my 10 team Auction/Keeper/Salary Cap/Dynasty League. Started out 12-0 or 13-0, lost my last game of the season to a team that was 6-7 but riding AP to the last spot in the playoffs, who then beat me in the championship final. Which I was completely sanguine about because hey, %^&$ happens right, and no one could have expected last year out of Brady.

So then this year I was completely insanely loaded:
Brady, Addai, Portis, Parker(he rides the bench), Colston, A Johnson, Witten

Unfortunately this left me with zero money for depth. So when Brady and Colston go down I was able to use the freed up cap space from puting Brady on the IR to grab the following off the wire:

Warner, Cassel, Slaton, Hightower, D Jackson, D Henderson, TEN DEF

So now even though I have lost Brady for the year, and I running with the #3QB, 5! of the top 30 RBs, 4 top 30 WRs, Witten, and TEN DEF, and Longwell has been pretty good too. In a league where we start 1/2/2/1/1/1

This is in a league where 9 of the 10 of the owners are really very good. Of course next year I am in extreme salary cap hell and will have to blow the whole thing up, but damn is this working out great...

Anyway, I am going Slaton and Portis over Addai, any comments thoughts, suggsestions?

The Wire should win the Nobel prize for literature.

by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 1:41pm

Slaton and Portis over Addai this week should be a sure thing.

by D Jones :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 1:33pm

I have Slaton vs. Miami, LDT v NE, MJ-D v Den, and Duece McA v Oak. Pick two of those four, any thoughts?

I'm afraid of LDT at NE to be honest. I like MJD at Den, but they will probably stack to stop the run against Jac. Is Duece back? Is Miami's D going to stop Slaton better than the Titan's?

by Becephalus :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 1:37pm

Slaton and LDT easy IMO. NE Def is NOT good. If you think so you are living in the past, I would be very surprised to see them finish the year in the top half of the league.

No Duece isn't back, and MJD is Mr. Unreliable.

The Wire should win the Nobel prize for literature.

by D Jones :: Fri, 10/10/2008 - 2:23pm

That's my current set. Yeah, I had MJD last year also and I think I'm not going to seek him out again until Taylor is less of a factor. Too much variability.

And yes, the Wire rawks.

by WookieeBH (not verified) :: Sat, 10/11/2008 - 12:34am

Is Frerotte worth starting over McNabb against the 49ers?

by abernethyj :: Sun, 10/12/2008 - 12:48pm

Probably not.

by Rob (not verified) :: Sat, 10/11/2008 - 10:25pm

I have to start either Colston, Matt Jones or Devin Hester this week at WR in a PPR league. All signs point to Jones, but something just keeps telling me to start Hester. No points for return yardage, but 6 points for a return TD. What say you guys?

by Becephalus :: Sun, 10/12/2008 - 5:25am

Depends on if you expect to win or not, if you think you are better go Jones for low variance, if you think you are worse go Hester for high variance. managing variance is an important piece of god fantasy play.

Good teams want low variance, bad teams want high variance.

The Wire should win the Nobel prize for literature.