Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

26 Sep 2005

2005 Quick Reads: Week 3

Here you go, folks, the official debut of Football Outsiders on FOX. (Mike Tanier has been writing for them for three weeks, of course, but that was "unofficial.") Congrats to Brian Walsh who donated a column name, and feel free to share your thoughts on the formatting.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 26 Sep 2005

30 comments, Last at 28 Sep 2005, 8:28pm by Carl


by BlueStarDude (not verified) :: Mon, 09/26/2005 - 11:35pm

And it is a great name for the column.

by dedkrikit (not verified) :: Mon, 09/26/2005 - 11:48pm

Was there an official comment on FoxSports about acquiring the new talent?

by Catfish (not verified) :: Mon, 09/26/2005 - 11:48pm

Looks pretty good to me, don't like the black on white type though. Color would be good. Also, you accidently switched the column headings for Receiving and Rushing DPAR for WR's.

I'm looking forward to more of these in the future, especially since you are now free of Skip Bayless and co. from Snap Judgement.

by Pat (not verified) :: Mon, 09/26/2005 - 11:49pm

We've examined the wreckage of the Kyle Orton bandwagon, and I'm sorry to inform you that there are no survivors.

As the population of Chicago drops by roughly half.

by Björn (not verified) :: Mon, 09/26/2005 - 11:49pm

"We all know that the officials just award the ball to whichever team is pointing more strenuously."

It's true!

by Ted (not verified) :: Mon, 09/26/2005 - 11:55pm

Hey, good stuff. However, as a Raiders fan I would be curious as to how Lamont Jordan missed the worst running backs list. 19 yards on 14 carries. Even worse, 14 came on one carry and he still didn't get a first down out of it. I assume his pretty good receiving day was the reason he's not on this list. Also surprised to see Courtney Anderson not make the top receivers/tight end list this week, and Kerry Collins as PAR leader despite barely completing 50% of his passes. Somehow with Collins leading PAR the Raiders are 0-3. Sebastian Janikowski and Norv Turner suck.

by Aaron (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 12:07am

Your answers, in order: Yes, Anderson was good but a lot of guys will get ignored when we can only list five, and Janikowski is the lowest-rated kicker on FG/XPs this year, lower than "injured Akers and random backup linebackers."

by Harris (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 12:50am

Curious that the 2 best QB performances lost. This means something. What, I'm not sure.

by Pat (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 12:53am

and Janikowski is the lowest-rated kicker on FG/XPs this year, lower than “injured Akers and random backup linebackers.�

Wait, you're kidding me. This is hilarious!

Former first round kicker, worse than a kicker with only one hamstring and a backup linebacker. That's awesome.

by deadteddy8 (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 1:14am

"There is a reason why Hines Ward is known as the best blocking receiver in football, and not the best unexpected-lateral-catching receiver in football."


by Trogdor (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 1:34am

"Last time the Colts actually gave Edge the ball instead of passing at the goal line, he had to run around the goal post in order to score."

Actually, I thought they gave it to him too much near the goal line yesterday, and should have passed more. They moved the ball effortlessly between the 10s, but ran a lot near the end zone, and their drives immediately stalled.

by MdM (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 2:04am

Excellent, Aaron!

by Fnor (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 2:29am

Way to drive LT's pass home. It needs repeating! (.2 Leftwiches)

by Jason (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 4:27am

I'm still not sure how much I believe in rewarding a consistent rb who often gets 4 yards as opposed to the "homerun hitter" type rbs that get stuffed alot then explode for a few big plays. Even if a rb gets 4 yards per carry on 1st and 2nd that still leads to alot of 3rd downs. Every 3rd down is a chance for a drive to stall, so creating alot of 3rd down opportunities is not exactly a recipe for successful drives. Even if they are 3rd and 2s, I'd imagine in terms of probability a team would be expected to not convert 4 or 5 in a row more often than they would convert all of them. Even though the "homerun hitter" type rb would get suffed alot, I'd imagine the drives where he breaks free for a big gain more often than not result in points being scored that possession.

by Israel (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 6:09am

Very nice work. And explanations that anyone can understand.

by Vince (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 6:26am

Would have more yards if Keith Brookings wasn't so good at tackling guys from behind.

You, sir, have just described Keith Brooking perfectly.

by Flux (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 6:38am

From the JP Loseman comment:

"Apparently, the only way he can throw to an open receiver is to overthrow an open receiver."

Shouldn't the 2nd "open" be "covered?" The joke would make more sense that way, to my mind anyway.

by Elias Holman (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 9:57am

I liked the random stat of the day, which secretly shouted, "Please stop sending me hate mail about Kevin Jones and your fantasy losses!"

by B (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 10:55am

Thanks for using my column name suggestion :)

by Sophandros (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 11:08am

As someone who has both Kevin Jones and Peyton Manning on his team, thanks for the encouraging words, Aaron.

by Adam H (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 11:32am

RE 17 I liked it too. Especially since I had Barry that year and took alot of razzing for continuing to start him. Terrell Davis and Barry Sanders brought home alot of bacon for the Lancaster County Brawling Warthogs that year.

by Adam H (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 11:33am

Whoops re 18.

by MJK (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 12:32pm


It all depends on how often the RB breaks loose versus how much difference there is in the probability of converting a 3rd and 2 versus a 3rd and 9. For example, imagine you only have a 40% chance of converting 3rd and 9, but a 90% chance on 3rd and 2 (which I suspect are reasonable numbers). Assuming you always run on 1st and 2nd down, and then pass on 3rd. With a consistent 4 ypc back, you obviously have roughly a 90% chance of getting a 1st down on any given series. With a "home run" back who either gets 1/2 a yard or 10 yards every time, then he better get the 10 yards at least 60% of the time in order to give you the same 90% conversion probability (assuming that my algebra is correct, for which I make no promises). A back that gets 10+ yards 60% of the time is unheard of. Granted, this is a simplistic case, but it demonstrates that, over a lot of repetitions, consistency is better than flash unless the flash happens really often.

by George Brownfield (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 12:58pm

Aaron - great job on the first “Quick Reads� colum - not a bad name for the column BTW - how about a link to all the players you reviewed that week, used to love reading all the QB reviews in Snap Judgements. Keep up the good work, sorry to hear about your loss.

by Kami (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 2:45pm

Honestly I very much preferred the formatting used for Snap Judgement.
But then, I'm very happy to see this column exist at all, so don't count this as a general complaint.

by zip (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 7:06pm

I also liked reading about every QB performance (not just top 5/bottom 5) but I'll take top 5/bottom 5 for QB/RB/WR as well.

by Aaron Boden (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 7:53pm

For the record, I am still on the Kyle Orton bandwagon, mortally wounded though I may be (he is still better than Krenzel was)

by Stuart (not verified) :: Tue, 09/27/2005 - 9:07pm

I like the formatting...it's easy to read and avoids pointlessly garish colors. Congrats on the new gig.

by Joey (not verified) :: Wed, 09/28/2005 - 12:24am

Congrats. I've been around off and on since you briefly hosted TMQ. You work hard and it's nice to see you getting some mainstream recognition.

by Carl (not verified) :: Wed, 09/28/2005 - 8:28pm

"on the Kyle Orton bandwagon, mortally wounded though I may be (he is still better than Krenzel was)"

In the offseason, Aaron is going to write something about what a bust Big 10 QBs are compared to SEC QBs.