Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Apr 2007

2007 Draft Round 1 Analysis

Mike Tanier's look at the first round at FoxSports.com: Brady Quinn will be just fine.

Posted by: Mike Tanier on 29 Apr 2007

9 comments, Last at 30 Apr 2007, 10:33am by Chris


by Eli (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 11:28am

hard to know how the first round plays out had the Jets not traded down, but with branch, olsen, and houston all having proved (appearantly) available where the Jets would've drafted at 25, did they give up to much for Darrelle Shavar Revis?

by Will Allen (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 2:53pm

I'll give Childress credit for this much; he has the courage of his convictions. If Tavaris Jackson doesn't achieve above-replacement level productivity Childress likely loses his NFL head coaching career. We'll see.

Adrian Peterson doesn't thrill me because my impression is that guys who miss a lot of time in college will likely be injured a lot in the NFL. It would make for an interesting study. If he ends up staying healthy, however, Peterson is a good pick for the Vikings.

The last three first rounders for the Vikings have each lost at least a season, or close to it, to injury, so they desperately need a healthy first round draft pick. Peterson doesn't seem to be the ideal candidate.

by mmm... sacrilicious (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 3:19pm

Will - It would be interesting to track the correlation between college games missed and NFL games missed. It's easy to think of selective examples that could "prove" this theory in either direction.

One example that comes to mind are Curtis Martin, who slipped to the 3rd round because of constant injuries in college but has been one of the most durable NFL RBs ever. Also, remember that Peterson's style is most often compared to that of Eric Dickerson, who (as we all know) is the only back to consistently defy the 370-carry law.

Of course, those examples don't really show anything, but it's an interesting question to think about.

by mmm... sacrilicious (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 3:21pm

Are/is... wine hangovers are a bitch.

by db (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 6:05pm

How bout them Dolphins? About the only thing that they have assured is that they will be picking in the top 10 again next year. Given Ginn's medical issues they probably could have picked him about 20 to 25 spots lower I wonder if Cam has been taking idiot lessons from Dave Wannabe.

by Pat F. (not verified) :: Sun, 04/29/2007 - 7:33pm

I read the Charlie Casserly interview where he talks about Quinn, and he mentioned the timing issue. I noticed it watching him play as well.

Both Casserly and Mike Tanier seem to think it's fixable. Is it, though? Timing strikes me as something that you pretty much have or you don't, like plate discipline in baseball -- it's something you learn all your life, but by the time you're ready to play professionally it's highly unlikely that your ability in that regard will change significantly.

I don't know, between that and his shaky accuracy, I'm glad my team's not counting on Quinn to be the future. I'm no scout of course, but I don't think he'll be much more than a journeyman backup.

by Subrata Sircar (not verified) :: Mon, 04/30/2007 - 5:37am

If Calvin Johnson was such a bad pick, who should the Lions have drafted at #2?

Brady Quinn is not going to make them better this year, and he clearly has less value in trade. Joe Thomas is not going to make them better this year, and probably has less trade value. One of the top DE/DT would not make them that much better, and again have less trade value.

As far as building for the long haul, this wasn't a good year to take a QB (that would have been Leinert, last year) and there doesn't appear to be a game-changing player available other than Johnson. Why not take him?

Frankly, I think the Lions were in a bad spot this year; nobody wanted their pick and the draft talent just wasn't there. Blaming the Lions for taking the best player available, because it doesn't improve them enough, seems, umm, harsh.

by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 04/30/2007 - 10:23am

The first think Cameron said to the booing crowd of Dolphins fans was " we got a great punt returner". Sounds awfuly smart for the 9th pick in the draft. Great value for a return man, desmond howard was the 5th pick if I remember correctly.

by Chris (not verified) :: Mon, 04/30/2007 - 10:33am

I'd agree that Derek Smith is a replacement level player, but Jeff Ulbrich is a beast. Do you remember those goalline stands the 49ers had against the rams a couple of years ago? Stephan Jackson kept running into Ulbrich and going backwards. Willis should be a stud himself though.