Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

20 Dec 2007

ESPN Numbers Crunching: Week 16

Here's this week's look at all 16 NFL games using Football Outsiders numbers. This week: Find out which NFL cornerback is the Human Target, which NFL offense is getting blitzed the most, and which game is the matchup of the week for everyone who loves fullbacks.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 20 Dec 2007

11 comments, Last at 21 Dec 2007, 5:20pm by Greg


by Tom (not verified) :: Thu, 12/20/2007 - 7:33pm

It seems to me that DB success rate should be the inverse. Instead of saying Jason Davis has a 27% success rate, I think it should be he allows a successful play 73% of the time. It just seems more intuitive to me.

by Yaguar (not verified) :: Thu, 12/20/2007 - 7:51pm

Does David's yards per pass rate include incompletions or not?

Eg, do quarterbacks throwing at David average 16 yards per completion (which is insane) or 16 yards per attempt (which is so absurdly gamebreaking that the Saints are lucky to have won any games at all?)

by Pat (not verified) :: Thu, 12/20/2007 - 8:12pm

#1: That's because it should be Stop Rate. It's a typo (I think).

by Gold Star for Robot Boy (not verified) :: Thu, 12/20/2007 - 8:54pm

Different numbers being crunched, but Russ Grimm's presence in the desert is paying off for the Cardinals O-line. Arizona was 23rd in ALY last year; this season, eighth. ASR also has improved.
On an individual level, AZ ranks second on runs off right tackle. That's a great sign RT Levi Brown is living up to his status as a first-round draftee.

by admin :: Thu, 12/20/2007 - 10:13pm

16 yards per attempt.

by Yaguar (not verified) :: Fri, 12/21/2007 - 12:06am

5: Are you serious? That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Why would anyone ever do anything but throw at Jason David?

by Bobman (not verified) :: Fri, 12/21/2007 - 2:58am

5/6 I liked the spunky little guy in Indy (maybe because he's my size and I can't often say that) but I like him more now that he's off my favorite team. Can't imagine how he held down a starting job so long on a SB winner. How did he keep Jackson and Hayden on the bench?

16 YPA against him. That is insane. Has he covered Moss or Owens this season? Andre Johnson? Chad or TJ? I think he was on Wayne when they faced Indy. Steve Smith? Galloway?

16 YPA? Otherworldly. I'd think Joe the wheelchair guy from Family Guy could cover with a lower YPA against him. And he's a freakin' cartoon character.

by Bobman (not verified) :: Fri, 12/21/2007 - 3:09am

This is where I start to get fed-up with stats. The comment about Houston being 25th/26th on first downs in DVOA is sort of meaningless when you consider that includes about 11 games without Andre Johnson and three games with. No? And he's back now, so I would assume they instantly jump to middle of the pack, even with the immortal Ron Dayne in the backfield. And isn't Rosenfels doing better than Schaub did?

When studs return after multiple game absences, but the stats reflect those games they missed, the stats are misleading for tomorrow, are they not? Albert Haynesworth, anybody? This is not a guarantee because some teams like Minn have good depth behind their stud (Peterson/Taylor), or they are "system teams" in which the system makes a starter seem godly but even his backup can produce big numbers (see RB, Denver), but that's the exception rather than the rule.

by ammek (not verified) :: Fri, 12/21/2007 - 9:42am

It might be that I'm feeling the effects of the christmas party, but "front zone" sounds a bit rude to me. (Cue Butthead snicker.)

Strategy for beating the Colts: line up in the neutral zone on first down, bringing a five-yard penalty, and removing the first/second/third-and-long advantage. Brilliant! Someone get Ted Cottrell on the line!

by turbohappy (not verified) :: Fri, 12/21/2007 - 12:57pm

Re: 7

Jackson and Hayden often missed assignments early in their career. Jason David wasn't a very good physical specimen, but he was usually doing the right thing in the Colts defense. He still got torched quite a bit because of his low physical skills. Now that he is with the Saints he doesn't know what he's supposed to be doing AND has low physical skills. I figured he would lose his job in '06, but it took Jackson/Hayden most of the year to get comfortable in the "system".

by Greg (not verified) :: Fri, 12/21/2007 - 5:20pm

re: 10

I think Jackson would have been the fulltime starter all of last year, but he injured his shoulder in the last preseason game against Cincinatti and had to sit for 4 games, I think, and by then Jason David hadnt screwed up too badly, so Dungy did what Dungy normally does and played the veteran until it was absolutely necessary to bench him (hello, Gilbert Gardner).