Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Sep 2006

FO on Rotoworld: Week 1 Matchups

Tim Gerheim offers up Week 1 start and sit recommendations, chock full of Football Outsidersy matchup analysis. If you don't get enough fantasy discussion in the Scramble For The Ball thread (and who ever gets enough fantasy discussion?), you can use this as another open thread for that.

Posted by: Tim Gerheim on 07 Sep 2006

32 comments, Last at 09 Sep 2006, 3:36am by jimmo


by Becephalus (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:14pm

Reminded me to put Droughns in instead of Ronnie Brown as RB2....but then I saw I already had done that :). Making me wonder if I should start Wiggins instead of Heap as well, but I think I will stick with Heap.

Nice article. Minnesota is going to be decent this year though :)

by B (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:19pm

I don't actually "get" fantasy football, but why would anybody have drafted JP Losman? I guess if Rothlesberger is your top QB, and you need to pick a backup to start this week, it makes sense.

by Oswlek (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:23pm

Considering NE was one of the top 5 best Ds last year when the were healthy down the stretch, I find it laugable that FO thinks NE will field a bottom 6 D.

Do you really want me to break out the list of missing players again?

by B (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:42pm

I won't be convinced NE won't have a bottom 6 D untill I see Rodney Harrison play in a real game situation.

by B (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:46pm

(For whom I have the utmost respect)

by passerby (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:49pm

Even against a terrible D, doesn't Pennington need someone to throw the ball to?

by passerby (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:50pm

Oh, and the Pats' D will be fifth-worst in the league? Me no think so!

by Daniel (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:55pm

Why would someone draft Losman? Depends on the size of your league and the scoring system. Most teams carry two or three QBs, so in a ten team league Losman might not get any consideration but in a twelve team league he would probably be drafted. Although you would have to have some pretty mediocre QBs to start him on any given week, even with a favorable matchup. There is no way I would bench Todd Heap, unless I also had Antonio Gates. Tampas defense might be great against the TE, but for the first time Heap has a QB that can actually deliver the ball acurately. The Ravens already threw to the TE a lot with Boller starting, and should look to him even more with McNair running the offense.

by James G (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:57pm

I guess I got my brain sapped of oxygen. I do have both Rod Smith and Javon Walker on one of my teams (also have both Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford on same said team). For now, I'm just guessing that Walker will be the better play, but I'm hoping Plummer ends up favoring one over the course of the season.

Also - #1 - how'd you end up with Ronnie Brown as RB #2? He went around #7 in both of my fantasy leagues.

by James G (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:58pm

Losman slipped all the way through both my 12 team league and my 14 team league, so I wouldn't be surprised if he was missing from a lot of rosters. I did, however, end up with Charlie Frye.

by compucrazy (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 5:59pm

Ok I have a serious fantasy dilemma that just got a little bit tougher. I have 1 slot and I have to decide between Donald Driver, Chris Cooley, and Jason Witten.
Before this article I was sure to start Driver. However with this article saying Chris Cooley will be an elite TE and the Packers facing the Bears D I'm not so sure. Plus I've got Witten to think about. Any advice?

by Kurt (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 6:06pm

Reminded me to put Droughns in instead of Ronnie Brown as RB2….

Didn't you read the article? It said to start every Brown you can find.

On a more serious note, I get that I shouldn't start a mediocre QB with a good matchup (in my case Rivers) over a good QB...but is Bledsoe a good QB?

by Geoff (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 6:10pm

Re: 11

The second best TE(Shockey) last year would've ranked 24 as a receiver. I'd stick with Driver.

by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 6:24pm


Not this week against Jacksonville.

by Adam B. (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 7:45pm

Compu: A decent WR > a great TE in the same slot. Driver.

by Becephalus (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 8:09pm

Re: #9 Picked R Johnson pick 8 and and R Brown pick 13. Yes it was larceny. Draft went reasonably except for the person with picks 10 and 11, who in my opinion, was retarded)

Manning (this guy has taken Manning 1st round past 4 years, always finishes about 4th or 5th)
R Johson (my 1st pick)
S Smith (this guys is an idiot)
Bush (exhibit B)
C Williams
R Brown (my second pick)

by yunzer (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 8:09pm

So should I bench Muhammed for Chris Henry?

Anyone? Anyone?

by compucrazy (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 9:05pm

k thanks a lot man.

by Zac (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 10:43pm

I'm in a 20-team league. Every starting QB (and a number of high profile backups) got drafted. One guy decided to be the QB hoarder. He drafted Brady, McNair, Leinart, Alex Smith, and Joey Harrington. I hate that guy.

In another league I'm in, a 10-team PPR league, we have to start two RBs. My RBs are Rudi Johnson, Clinton Portis, Chris Brown, Deuce McAllister, and Chris Perry. We aren't allowed to make any pickups until after the 1st week, so I'm starting Rudi and Deuce. The best RBs available are Wali Lundy, Kevan Barlow, Verron Haynes, and Jerious Norwood. Are any of these guys worth picking up over Brown and McAllister? Perry is definitely gone. I'm thinking of picking up Maurice Morris to replace Perry.

by Kevin11 (not verified) :: Thu, 09/07/2006 - 11:18pm

I’m in a 20-team league. Every starting QB (and a number of high profile backups) got drafted. One guy decided to be the QB hoarder. He drafted Brady, McNair, Leinart, Alex Smith, and Joey Harrington. I hate that guy.

He's smart- he found a weakness in the system and took advantage of it, all while being in full compliance of the rules. It's not his fault that weakness exists.

With bye weeks, 20 teams is too many. But if you must have 20, there should be a limit of 2 QBs per team.

BTW, I was the "RB hoarder" in my league, which has ten teams and starts three RBs every week :)

by Sean (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 1:04am

Re 6: Pennington has a better set of players to throw to than Tom Brady (assuming Branch sits)- I don't see that from stopping people from playing Brady.

by Becephalus (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 1:29am

Goddamn Ronnie Brown. As I predicted dolphins have horrible game and you still have to put up 17 pts. Well, lets hope Mr. Droughns has somethign comparable in him.

by thoughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 1:35am

Ronnie Brown-30 yards rushing, 17 points. i love fantasy football

by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 12:16pm

M.Hasslebeck@ Det
T.Brady @ Buf

R. Johnson @ KC
R. Droughns NO
W. Mghahee @ NE
F. Gore @ Ari
W. Lundy Phi


Reggie Wayne@ NYG
Rod Smith @ Stl
E Kennison Cin
A.Johnson Phi




No points for receptions, 10/10 rush/recieving, 6/6 TDs, 1/20yds passing

Who should I be starting at QB/RB/WR

I know Rudi and Reggie Wayne should definitely start, but other than that…

(picked 10 in a 10 team league)

by Starshatterer (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 12:43pm

Rich Conley (#24)--

Hasselbeck at QB. Buffalo's pass D is supposed to be pretty good.

Wayne, Smith, and Kennison at WR. Philly's pass D should also be good, and starting skill players from Houston is a move best reserved for desperation time.

Johnson and Droughns at RB. McGahee is tempting against a New England run defense with questions, but New Orleans' run D should be simply bad, and this could be a rare chance for Cleveland to run the ball with a late lead.

by Zac (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 2:59pm

Oh, I know it's not illegal, Kevin11. It still seems cheap to me. But it will hopefully come back to bite him, as he has no depth at WR or RB.

by Mitch Cumstein (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 3:17pm

I start 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 FLEX. This week, I am going with LT, Cadillac and Gore in the RB/Flex spots. Wide Receivers, though, are a major question mark. WR's on my roster are Darrell Jackson, Deion Branch, Roddy White, Ernest Wilford, and Joe Jurevicius.

I will have to go with Jackson if he is healthy enough to start, but do I go with Joe "he plays for the Browns against the Saints" Jurevicius or Roddy "KUBIAK loves me" White to begin his breakout campaign?

by Sean D. (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 3:34pm

I hope no one took Tim's advice on Hines Ward.

by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 3:43pm

Re: 26

In a 20 team league, a RB tandem of Johnson and Portis is pretty damn good. Depending on what your QB situation is and how much of a gambling man you are, I may think about trying to trade Chris Brown to the QB hoarder for either Leinart or Alex Smith.

by James G (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 3:47pm

#16 (and #1) - maybe Brown just went high in my leagues. In both of my leagues, he went ahead of Jackson, Williams, and Jordan. I have him in one of my leagues (#8 pick), and he's definitely in the always start category. I couldn't afford to take him out based on matchups at all.

by CaffeineMan (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 5:47pm

Anybody have any news on Derrick Mason's injury status? I know he's listed as questionable and has been missing portions of practice. I'm trying to decide between Mason and Rod Smith for my WR2 (6/TD, 1/10yds, no PPR).

by jimmo (not verified) :: Sat, 09/09/2006 - 3:36am

re:17, I'd think about it for sure, depending on who else you have. TJ Housh is only questionable/game time decision, leaving Henry possibly matched up against any KC dback not named Law and Muhammed will be going against Al Harris with Rex Grossman throwing him the ball.

re:31. I'd say Smith for sure, regardless of Mason's injury. Better matchup, better offense.