Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Oct 2006

FO on Rotoworld: Week 7

Tim Gerheim is back with another slate of fantasy picks, trying to make up for last week's atrocious picks. But he's set himself up for failure again by picking against everybody's top overall draft pick.

Posted by: Tim Gerheim on 21 Oct 2006

15 comments, Last at 24 Oct 2006, 3:14am by Kal


by Jay B. (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 12:39am

I can't see benching Santana Moss, unless your receiving corps is really deep. Yeah, the Redskins offense has turned back into a pumpkin, but Moss can turn one of those goofy screens into 80 yards and a TD at any time.

by Becephalus (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 1:24am

They really need to stop using start/sit terminology. Just say cause for concern or whatever. Its misused all over the fantasy world its not just here.

by Yaguar (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 1:42am

Agreed. There are very few circumstances under which anyone would want to bench Larry Johnson, in any league, at any time, matchups be damned.

by Gerry (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 11:08am

The whole Eli Manning thing is just weird to me.

There are tons of FO references to him being so inaccurate, and how his passes keep sailing high on Burress, that if it wasn't for his incredible leaping ability, Manning's completion percentage would be abysmal.

But then I look at the Giants' catch percentages. Toomer, who cannot jump like Burress, is at 70%. Tyree, who cannot jump like Burress, is at 83%. Tiki, who is nowhere near as tall as Burress and cannot jump, to my knowledge, like Burress is at 69%. Shockey, who cannot jump like Burress, is at 69%.

Plax, on the other hand, is at 59%, and if the commentary is to be believed, would be lower if he was not often bailing out Manning on his inaccurate throws.

To be fair, Tim Carter is also relatively low at 56%. However, from what I have seen, most of his chances are low percentage bombs and his hands are atrocious.

Overall, I don't think the numbers fit the perception of Manning being inaccurate high in general. The receivers who are less capable of handling that type of pass are catching a higher percentage of throws. Either Manning has some sort of mental block when it comes to Plax that makes him throw high just to him, or a few highlight reel grabs and a few close calls have disproportionally affected perceptions this year.

by Adam, VA (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 1:41pm

Oh Manning is inaccurate all right, of course Tiki's percentage is high, he's catching checkdowns that even Eli completes on a semi-regular basis. Toomer has been playing above his head so far this year and will come back to earth. And really you almost made you're own point with Burress, if he wasn't catching all these jump balls then his percentage and Eli's would be alot lower. Also his inaccuracy isn't just about completion percentage, but also the fact that on an 8 yard curl the receiver is having to jump as high as he can or sliding low to catch the ball, seriously limiting his YAC chances. Eli will be perenially overrated by the media.

by Adam, VA (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 1:43pm

Also Shockey CAN jump like Plax, and Tyree has caught 5 freaking balls, meaning way too small a sample size to infer anything.

by Ghoser (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 2:03pm

Only one of Plaxico's catches this entire season has been a jump ball (game winner against Eagles). That is; unless you refer to "jump ball" as a throw to a streaking receiver who has run past a DB. Even on the td against Colts, the pass sailed but hit Plax in the hands behind the coverage.

Amani Toomer "playing over his head" has nothing to do with the fact that Eli Manning has thrown accurate balls to him all season.

by Gerry (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 2:15pm

Adam, so if I hear you correctly, Toomer has been playing over his head, and therefore must be pulling in pass after pass that sail over the outstretched arms of the much taller, much higher-jumping Plaxico Burress.

I am skeptical. But if true, there must be one hell of a highlight reel ready to be made on only the exploits of the well-dressed Amani Toomer circa 2006.

Methinks you are trying to hold on to preconceptions that may no longer be valid.

by Gerry (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 2:17pm

"Shockey CAN jump like Plax"


by doktarr (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 4:08pm

Just to echo other comments - are you serious that I should sit LJ? I mean, it's not like I'm sitting Tiki Barber so that I can play LJ. I am sitting Maurice Morris, but that's the best bench option I've got.

In general, giving fantasy advice about guys like LJ or Tatum Bell is only useful if the context is drafting them or trading them. Because anybody who has them on their roster is going to play them every week that they're starting.

by Horrorshow (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 5:03pm

I'm loaded at RB with Tiki, LJ and FWP - but it's been a nightmare trying to pick two of those three this week.

Think I'll take a pop with Johnson and Parker.

Wish me luck...

by compucrazy (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 6:23pm

Should I start Willie parker at Atlanta or Tatum Bell at Cleveland? I gotta get this right because I face LJ and Donovan Mcnabb this week. Any advice?

by Pat (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 8:22pm

#12: You'd be better off asking that question in the Scramble for the Ball thread, but are you serious? Bell's the easy play there. By a mile.

by empty13 (not verified) :: Sat, 10/21/2006 - 10:55pm

Altho big backs are a better pick against Atlanta, Parker, if he gets mmost of the touches, might be a better pick.

Cleveland will be sporting some offensive tricks this week and Denver is NOT opening up their offense at all.

by Kal (not verified) :: Tue, 10/24/2006 - 3:14am

Winner picks:
Eli Manning (kinda) - not a great night, not a horrible night. Just a meh game.
Gradkowski - yep, he did suck.
Santana Moss - really, he should've been sat. Wow.

Loser picks:
Michael Vick. Though I don't know how that would've been possible to foresee.
Matt Leinart. Owwwww.
Larry Johnson - only the best game of his season.
Ahman Green - also the best game of his season. Though again, who would've thunk it?
Deion Branch - but to be fair, who knew Hass would be injured? Also, Minnesota ranked poorly against #1s and great against #2s - and Branch was the #2.
Randy Moss - best game all season.
Reggie Williams - one of the worst games.
Andre Johnson - one of his best.
Terry Glenn - one of his worst, but who thought Romo would be throwing?
Tony Gonzalez - one of his best so far.
Josh Scobee - worth a mighty 1 point.
Jay Feely - not the best week, but certainly not bad by any stretch.

All in all - DVOA is doing a fairly bad job of picking success game to game, at least in the last two weeks.