Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

28 Oct 2006

FO on Rotoworld: Week 8

If you have a fantasy superstar with a bad matchup, Tim Gerheim recommends you sit him. Except he doesn't really. See if you can make sense of that, and check out his weekly fantasy picks.

Posted by: Tim Gerheim on 28 Oct 2006

9 comments, Last at 31 Oct 2006, 2:45am by John


by John (not verified) :: Sat, 10/28/2006 - 3:14pm

A quick observation:

Minnesota's poor D on the #1 receiver will benefit NE's #1, but I'm pretty sure that's Ben Watson and not Doug Gabriel.

by Smeghead (not verified) :: Sat, 10/28/2006 - 4:32pm

Yeah, and most other pundits say "temper your expectations for Tomlinson this week" or something. What the devil does that even mean? Try to find points somewhere else -- because if your expectations weren't tempered, you weren't going to bother dropping your bye-week kicker?

by B (not verified) :: Sat, 10/28/2006 - 6:24pm

It means you should consider sitting him if your backup has a good matchup.

by Smeghead (not verified) :: Sun, 10/29/2006 - 12:10pm

well, "temper your expectations for Chester Taylor" means sit him if your backup has a good matchup.

but if you're in the habit of benching LT to play schedule roulette, I want you in my league.

by RIch Conley (not verified) :: Sun, 10/29/2006 - 7:18pm

I'm having trouble finding a "sit" or "start" where gerheim wasnt completly wrong this week.

by jimmo (not verified) :: Mon, 10/30/2006 - 10:49am

well, Grossman was a good start, Leftwich a good sit; Droughns a good start, Cadillac a good sit; LJ Smith a good sit...

Another not-great week, but not completely wrong.

by Kal (not verified) :: Mon, 10/30/2006 - 12:35pm

And to be fair, David Carr got benched. So picking 'Houston QB' as a start was a good one. Who knew Sage Rosenfels would have such a good game?

Not great on the rest of it though. Especially Colston.

by Kal (not verified) :: Mon, 10/30/2006 - 12:49pm

Hmm. I'm starting to think that the methodology for determining who is good in FF vs. who is good via DVOA is just totally flawed for certain players. DVOA talks about how good someone is per play - but one big play can make someone a great FF play that week. For instance, DJax had a pretty horrible day against the Chiefs aside from one long pass. I bet his DVOA stays fairly low, and I bet his DPAR isn't even that good, but as a FF play he still put up good points this week.

For RBs, I bet it'll work more than it doesn't because they don't tend to get giant plays compared to other players - they tend to be consistent and regular. But WRs are often big plays or busts.

It doesn't explain Colston though.

by John (not verified) :: Tue, 10/31/2006 - 2:45am

Tom Tango has a projection system for baseball called Marcel...to make a long story short, the idea is that any monkey can make a few correct predictions. Not to rake Tim Gerheim over the coals, but these picks have to be considered a failure.

I think the Football Outsider stats are a great tool for fantasy football prediction, but must be considered with a lot of other information.

I've been one of the most outspoken critics of Gerheim's picks, so in an attempt to separate myself from the reviling peanut gallery, I'll post my picks with help from the FO exclusive stats in next weeks "FO on Rotoworld" thread.

Let's see if I can do any better.