Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Game Discussion: NYJ-NE Wild Card

This thread is for discussion of action on the field before, during, and after the first-round playoff game between the New York Jets and New England. Each game this year will get its own discussion thread, so please discuss the other games in those specific threads.

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by Ch V Kalyan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:49pm

Chad Jackson sighting in the game ... alas, only an incomplete

by jm (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:51pm

Re: 296
You're probably right. Point being you can play if this or if that in either direction, this is a hard fought game between a good team and a slightly better one. A blowout would be anomalous.

by RichConley (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:51pm

wow, that was a huge hole...if the LB hadnt got him by the ankles, maroney was gone.

by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:52pm

I think that Hawkins is doing his best to imitate the New England CB from last year, whose name I had to have permanently erased from my memory.

And when's the last time there's been a TE that was only good at blocking, and mediocre in catching/ I thought that was for fullbacks. ;P

by RichConley (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:55pm

Jabar Gaffney is 3 receptions and 34 yards short of tying the rest of his season in 1 game.

by stan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:56pm

NE off line is winning the game.

by jebmak (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:56pm

What was that for?

by Ch V Kalyan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:57pm

Pennington: 20/31 for 256 & 1 TD

Brady: 20/31 for 202 & 1 TD

pretty remarkable!

by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:57pm

Nice second-effort Dillon! Score this TD Pats!

Way to have butterfingers Watson.

Hey, remember when Dillon was a cancer? Maybe he actually WAS just pissed at the Bengals...as opposed, say, to TO...

by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:58pm


Bow did the Jets not defend that? lol

by James, London (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:58pm

That TD looked like it was straight out of a Madden playbook.

by RichConley (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:59pm


I think thats one of the few trades you see that was good for everyone involved. The Bengals get rid of a frustrated player,et a pick, and get to promote Rudi, and the Pats get the hammer they needed.

by Quinn (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 5:59pm

The Jets deserve to lose if they aren't going to make any adjustments on defense. They've been getting beat for the same reason all game. Blitz 6 or 7, everyone gets picked up and Brady has plenty of time to find the reciever in single coverage.

by ZS (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:04pm

Game over.

by RichConley (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:04pm

Notebook closed. Game over.

Asante gets his big contract.

by Balaji (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:04pm

Well, that'll do it for good.

by Kevin (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:05pm

Asante int for TD~!!!!

Game Over.

by Ch V Kalyan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:05pm

How did Asante NOT get picked for Pro-bowl?

by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:05pm

Game over!

IHe keeps playing like that, the New England players will pay for his trip to Hawaii themselves...

by James, London (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:07pm

37-16 looks likew a blowout, but it's been much better than that. The Jets have a lot to look forward to.

by Ch V Kalyan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:08pm

Qn2: Will NE pats give Asante a huge contract or will they leave him to go as a free-agent?

by tim (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:08pm

mangold had a nice transfer block on that last 2nd down play

by james (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:08pm

if you could all just direct attention to post no. 19

I would like some cookies for my work well done

by B (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:09pm

321: Considering his performance and their troubles keeping dbs healthy, I think they have to give him a big contract.

by Ch V Kalyan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:11pm

320/James: Couldn't have said it better.

Pats win because they have been before and they have a good running game. The Jets will be here (if they dont disgress in mangini's sophomore year!) with a good running game

Maybe they should move up the draft and grab AP

by RichConley (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:11pm


I completely disagree. They've been able to plug in pretty much anyone, and get good performance. I dont see any reason for them to pay him big.

That being said, they've got a LOT of cap space, so I wouldnt be surprised to see them sign him with a contract with a lot of money in the first year or two.

by jonnyblazin (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:12pm

Next weeks AFC games should be ridiculous, unless the Colts fold.

by RichConley (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:13pm

I'm sorry, but seymour just destroyed D'brickashaw, and the LG at the same time. Seymour is great, but if half your line can't keep one guy out, thats ridiculous

by jonnyblazin (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:15pm

btw, isn't it funny how Belichick got pissed at Mangini because he felt that the Jets were making overtures to Patriot players, both free agents and players under contract? This, from a guy who sleeps with married women.

by Ch V Kalyan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:15pm

One final word: The Jets can be proud with the way they were able to stick for three and half quarters with the Patriots - a much superior team. With a few additions - pass rush and running game, they can stay as a force to recokon in the AFC East.

by playoffs finally (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:16pm

I had never noticed what a cheap shot artist Tedy Bruschi is. He is always coming in late on hits and twisting ankles while the ballcarrier is getting up.

Isn't it ridiculous that touching the quarterback is 15 yards when people like this are constantly hitting people late? I'd love to see them stop calling all the bogus roughing the passer nonsense and start cracking down on the late hit artists. If a player is down, don't hit him. Seems pretty simple.

by B (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:16pm

326: See, I think the reason they have been successful is because they could rely on Samuels taking care of his half the field.

by ZS (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:18pm

Vinny's in, game's over, Pats win, G-Men time.

by ZS (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:18pm

Vinny's in, game's over, Pats win, G-Men time.

by jonnyblazin (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:18pm

ha! BB shoves a cameraman out of his way to go hug mangini.

by RichConley (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:19pm

332. I partially agree, but they had plenty of success in 2004 when both him and Law were hurt.

That being said, when law came up for big money and they said no, he was 30. Samuel is 25 right now.

by Tally (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:19pm

Heh, did you see Belichick shove that cameraman aside on his way to Mangini? That's about as much emotion as I've ever seen out of that man.

by Kevin (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:20pm

Anyone else notice Belichick toss the reporter aside to cuddle with his beloved protege?

by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:22pm

LOL belichick just shoved that guy outta the way...

I bet he was thikning, "This will shut up the newspapers..." lol

by Shaun (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:22pm

@ 331

You don't have the slightest idea what you are talking about. Your mind is making up things you arent seeing. Tedy Brushi is one of the real class acts in the NFL

by playoffs finally (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:40pm

Re: 340

OK. Well, on the game broadcast and recorded in my area of the country, Bruschi very clearly hit players late repeatedly and twisted their ankles as they tried to get up. That is what is on the video. I'm looking at a couple of them again right now.

Perhaps this game was out of character which is why I hadn't noticed it before. Or were you being sarcastic?

by RichConley (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:47pm

twisting ankles? What the hell are you talking about? Honestly, Bruschi is one of the classiest guys in the league.

by playoffs finally (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:52pm

When the ballcarrier has been tackled and the play is over, some players like to twist the ankle of the ballcarrier for whatever reason. Honestly, have you never watched the game? Lots of defensive players do it. Bruschi did it a bunch today. Do you have it recorded? Go back and watch what happens after the play is over. You will see it happen often. This is not a rare phenomena. How could you be totally unaware of it?

by Shaun (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:54pm

I could see some of the late hits, but its not like they were that late. It was a physical game and thats how physical games go. You think the Pats are going to take any chances that guys arent down after the Jones-Drew and Cotchery plays from earlier this season? I dont. But twisting ankles? Please! You have it recorded...rip it and put it up on YouTube and link it.

by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 7:03pm

Wtf? jared is a fan of the Colts? That makes me hate them even more....I didn't even know that was possible...

On two other notes...

1) That was the first well played game so far in the playoffs.
2) That was the strangest promotion I've ever seen.
3) The big factor in this game? The jets were 3-11 on third downs...the Pats were 11-16.

by smashmouth football (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 7:10pm

I wholeheartedly agree with playoffs finally. And despite the alleged stiffened enforcement of D holding and illegal contact, I noticed New England holds frequently in pass coverage and doesn't seem to get flagged for it. BTW, it was almost laughable how much the New England homers whined on this site last week about Tennessee's admittedly dirty play. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. Rings hollow coming from one of the dirtiest teams in the league, and a team that gets a lot of love from the refs and the TV announcers.

by playoffs finally (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 7:11pm

That's my point. Not late enough to be called as it is governed now, but they should be. I'm watching right now a hit where the ballcarrier is wrapped up in the arms laying stationary on the ground and Bruschi launched himself to land on the guy's shoulder's and helmet. It was almost identical to the one he got the 15 yard penalty on at the 2 hour 2 minute mark.

Now that I am watching this again, I see that Bruschi is almost aways the second player on every tackle. I can see if he is trying to be aggressive how his motor is getting him into a lot of potential late hit situations.

by Becephalus (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 7:13pm

As for samuel in the pro-bowl, you must follow the rule on nominating someone to take off. The probowl cant have 150 players or it wouldn't mean anything.

It also looked to me like Bruschi was one of the cheaper players today, but that seems par for the course in middle linebackers.

by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 7:25pm

Amazing how both playoffs finally and smashmouth football both have two word, all lower case names...

As far as late hits go, I don't blame the guys very often (granted, there were some late ones in that game, but it's tough when a guy's going full speed to just stop on a dime). It's the refs who seem to swallow the whistle that should be yelled at. :p

by smashmouth football (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 7:33pm

Re: 349

Amazing how both playoffs finally and smashmouth football both have two word, all lower case names…

No, I'm not "playoffs finally." Always have been (on this site) and always will be smashmouth football.

by Rick (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 8:25pm

Wow, some of the comments here are remarkably lame. I'd thought people would be discussing football, as is usual at FO, but today's thread has a lot of trolling. Too bad.

About the game: I saw the last three quarters and never felt that the Pats were in trouble. The second play I saw was the Cotchery TD. The Pats secondary (aside from Sammuel and the injured Harrison) remains a chink in the armor. After that play, it seemed that the Pats were willing to give up short passes all game long, as long as there was no risk of being burned long by Cotchery or Coles.

It certainly helps to be playing against a QB who cannot throw the deep ball.

The Chargers present all sorts of matchup problems for the Pats. The Pats have lost their last two games against the Chargers, and the 2005 game was a complete drubbing. The team should be in better shape next week, but the current version of the Chargers is also much better.

by BillWallace (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 9:21pm

Yeah Bruschi was an ass today. I was glad they flagged him on that one.

by B (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 10:14pm

The Pats against the Chargers will have to stop LdT and make Rivers beat them. I'm just not show how they can do that, especially with their troubles tackling fast, strong backs like him.

by moronlionsfan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 10:25pm

I know I'm late to the party, but anybody else dig Belichick hammering the press guy in his way during the post-game coverage?

by smashmouth football (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 10:25pm

While driving home, I just heard an announcer on Fox Sports Radio say, in sizing up next week's matchup in San Diego, that "New England's defense isn't that good."

Let's see, NE ranks top ten in defensive DVOA this year, and their weighted defensive DVOA is -12.5%. It's also balanced pretty evenly run vs. pass. It's things like this that make you wonder how media people get their jobs.

by MJK (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 11:59pm

Sorry I missed the thread. My computer is in the wrong room.

Asante Samuel may or may not be a Pat next year. The Patriots actually did offer Law big money--just not as big as he wanted. Then he got injured. I am confident that the Patriots will make Samuel a pretty big offer. Probably slightly more than he's worth. I'm equally confident that some other team with a boneheaded GM or with a coach that feels they're a good corner away from the '85 bears will make him a bigger offer, far more than he's worth. Then it will come down to how much he likes playing in New England vs wherever that other place is, and how much of a contender that other team is, and how much playing for a contender versus getting paid is important to him. I estimate about a 30% chance that he'll stay with the Pats. Remember, unless the Pats consider Chad Scott or Willie Andrews the next big thing, they don't have anyone with potential to be a second Asante Samuel waiting in the wings.

The free agent that they're more likely to lose is Dan Graham. He's one of the best blocking TE's in the game, and a decent route-runner and reciever as well, but now they have Watson and Thomas, and some other rookie TE that they drafted that was looking pretty good in camp as well, and some old school coach is going to make a pretty good run at Graham. The Pats like him, but probably not enough to break the bank, especially if they're only 1-2 M away from keeping Samuel.

Regarding the Chargers, the Pats have one thing going for them. Phillip Rivers has played very well this season, but the one or two times I've seen him he's looked immobile. DVOA bears this out, I think...didn't Aaron make a comment about how Rivers has been very good in every respect except when he tries to run? Anyway, Bellichick is very good at getting to immobile QB's, especially inexperienced immobile QB's. Granted, Rivers is not a rookie, and the SD O-line must be pretty good for them to have played so well, but it gives me a glimemr of hope.

by MJK (not verified) :: Mon, 01/08/2007 - 12:01am

One other thought about Asante Samuel. I know franchising a CB costs a lot, but do you think its possible the Pats might do so, to give them time to draft or develop another player to replace him? He's certainly a top 5 CB by this point, and playing his best football now...

by smashmouth football (not verified) :: Mon, 01/08/2007 - 1:19am

Re: 357

Yes, it's certainly a possibility, especially because the cap is going up considerably next year if I'm not mistaken. A number of teams have franchised a star CB the first year--the real salary cap pain comes if there's still an impasse the next season, because then I think the consecutive application of the franchise tag requires either 20 or 25 % increase from the previous year's salary--in other words, a real deal breaker.

by smashmouth football (not verified) :: Mon, 01/08/2007 - 1:26am

Re: 356

Something tells me we're going to see another inexplicable Martyball choke. It's not as if New England is a weak opponent or something. They have a very effective offense with a very good, experienced QB (even though I hate prettyboy Tom Brady, in the irrational way fans experience these feelings, as an observer, I have to acknowledge he's easily a top-5 NFL QB, maybe even top-3). And don't forget how well NE's defense has played. Sure, they're not the Ravens (who is?), but NE has had a very good defense this year. So my advice to you is sit back and enjoy some of the best football you'll see all year.

by LnGrrrR (not verified) :: Mon, 01/08/2007 - 1:29am


That increase only kicks in when the player is already the highest paid player for that position, or when franchising him would be less than his contract, I believe. (As was the case with Vinateiri.) there's been a few teams that have franchised guys for multiple years in a row.

by smashmouth football (not verified) :: Mon, 01/08/2007 - 2:28am


That's all the more reason for NE to franchise him then. Of course, that fails to account for the risk of diminished clubhouse harmony. It's a fact that players usually don't like being franchised, and their resentment can cause big problems with clubhouse mojo. I remember how much of a problem that was for the Ravens in 2004-05, for example. Now it's true that some veterans (Walter Jones?) seemed almost to like the franchise tag, because it gave them the freedom to skip training camp (technically not under contract until opening game), but most players understandably want a little security in case they suffer a serious injury.

by PantsB (not verified) :: Mon, 01/08/2007 - 12:54pm

The Patriots have held their opponents to something like 85 points less than average.

The Chargers have held their opponents to 7.5 points more than their season average.

But the Patriot's D isn't that good?

by B (not verified) :: Mon, 01/08/2007 - 2:50pm

362: Well, if the Pats hold the Chargers to 5 points under their season average (30-5=25 points), and the Chargers hold the Pats to their season average (24 points) (extrapolating from your totals), then the Chargers will win by a point. Factor in 3 points for home field, and look for the Chargers to win but not cover.