Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Open 2018 NFL Draft Thread

This is an open thread for discussion of the 2018 NFL draft. You can use this thread all night Thursday night during the first round, or to discuss the aftermath of Round 1 the next day, and then again Friday night (Rounds 2-3) and Saturday (Rounds 4-7). We will also have our annual Audibles at the Line staff discussions from the first two nights, published on Friday and Saturday mornings.


by larrybinth :: Wed, 04/25/2018 - 8:40pm

Who is a better fit for the Jets? Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield?

by mehllageman56 :: Wed, 04/25/2018 - 10:58pm

Either would be fine. I'll post this now, since I probably won't be able to post this tomorrow. If they take Josh Allen, you will hear me yelling all the way from Portland. Any other of the top five guys, I'll be alright. Jackson would be a weird reach, but I would still have hope for him. They take Barkley, I'll flip my lid too (probably if they take Chubb as well). No matter what, I'm hoping Teddy is ok because all of the quarterback prospects could use a year on the bench. Rosen could use a year on the bench working out so he can take the punishment he's going to get, and the rest of them have stuff to work on (mechanics, pocket presence, etc.). I still think moving up was the wrong idea.

by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 6:02am

Id they stayed at 6, buff woudl have moved yp . Doubtful mayfield, darnold, rosen woule ve available af 6

by justanothersteve :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 1:40pm

I'm with you on Allen. I think any of Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield is worthy of a top 3 pick. I wouldn't touch Allen or Jackson in the top half of the round and prefer Jackson. I'll also be stunned if Rudolph goes before Lauletta.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:34am


He brings all the drunken swagger the Jets need from the QB position.

by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:53am

yeah, Namath drank some. not sure if was drunk during games. K,. Stabler and B. layne also had success as drinkers. Mayfield did have dirnking incident at least one time uin college as many fo us had.

by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 1:05pm

All the good stories are about partying the previous night and playing hungover

by Bobman :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 6:57pm

The list of those guys is long and (at least partially) glorious. To my mind, the best is Babe Ruth. The sh!t he did after the sh!t he did... man was amazing. Seven pizzas and a case of beer for lunch, then play a double-header and end up as a league leader in most offensive categories.

by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:20pm

Heh, I'm a Dock Ellis guy myself 8)
(Even though he doesn't fit the hungover category, his is always the first story I think about)

by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 6:03am

Tip three shouldb e
1. Browbs- mayfield, darnold or rosen
2. Giants- mayfield, darnold ir rosen
Jegs- mayfield, darnold or rosen

by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:57am

by Jegs did mean jets. Am not predicting Jets to trade pick 3 to Jacksonville.

Makes think of good idea though. instead of moving Jaguars to London team could merge with Jets to cearte Jegs. logo would be like head of jaguar and body of airplane. horrible thing tjhat would be. could be worse than that flying wolf thing in "Rampage."

That merge would drop league down to 31 teams. Then league can just make London as an expansion team and be back at 32 teams.

by Junior :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 2:22pm

That's great. New Jacksonville Jegs will be the name of my fantasy team this year.

by CaffeineMan :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 3:57pm
by MC2 :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 7:21am

For what it's worth, here's my opinion of this year's QB draft class. This isn't based on where I expect them to be drafted, but on where I think they should be drafted. In other words, it's my opinion of how likely they are to succeed in the NFL.

Early 1st Round: Mayfield, Rosen
Later 1st Round: Darnold, Jackson
2nd Round: Lauletta, Rudolph
3rd Round: Allen, Falk

by jtr :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:08am

If the Giants take a QB at #2, I'm calling it right now that the Bills trade up for Cleveland at #4 and take Allen. Throwing away a bunch of resources to take a strong-armed pocket passer with lousy accuracy is exactly the kind of mistake that organization is built to make.

by Boots Day :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:27am

It boggles my mind that that Giants might not take a QB at No. 2, although I keep seeing reports that they won't. They've got a bad 37-year-old starter, and his backup is a third-round marginal prospect who lost his job as a college senior and didn't even see the field last year.

by Mike B. In Va :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:50am

The old organization? Yes.

The new organization? Not so much. I can't see any organization being that foolish. If the QB they wanted isn't there, I believe they'll stay at 12 and either take 1.) the best available 1st round-level QB that's there or b.) the best available player, period - or there's a possibility they trade back from 12 if everything they want that high is gone. Last year's draft was handled very competently with McDermott kinda pulling Whaley's strings, and I expect this one to be similar with Beane in charge.

by jtr :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:01am

I think the most likely scenario is that the best QB who makes it down to #12 is Lamar Jackson, and the Bills spent all of last season showing how much they hate the idea of a scrambling QB. Based on the Nate Peterman Experiment and flipping Tyrod Taylor for a third, I think they really are stubborn enough to prefer losing with a traditional pocket passer over trying to figure out how to win with a scrambler. That's why I think they'll move up for the guy who superficially looks like the perfect "pocket guy".

by mehllageman56 :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:56am

Given the leaking of certain Allen tweets, would the Buffalo braintrust have leaked them in the hopes of getting Allen? I really hope no one is that stupid, but...

by Steve in WI :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:59am

Regarding the tweets, it boggles my mind to even think that teams might not have known about them before today. It feels like a plot point from Draft Day to suggest that teams that have spent thousands of man hours researching players would have all missed this until now. Therefore, the fact that it's suddenly becoming a story makes me think *somebody* wants him to fall.

by MilkmanDanimal :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 12:18pm

The mind-boggling thing to me about this is that Josh Allen's agents did not make as their very first job scrubbing his social media history of anything potential offensive or stupid; it's 2018, people. That is a level of utter incompetence that should get them fired today.

I can accept that a teenage boy said something really dumb years ago; I have teenagers who are smart, well-mannered good kids, and they're still morons because they're teenagers. I expect them to do stupid things. The fact the adults who are supposed to be helping him didn't clear this up immediately is just ridiculous.

by justanothersteve :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 1:57pm

You can clean up all you want. Social media is forever even if you erase it. These tweets would have come out regardless, though probably not with this timing.

by MilkmanDanimal :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 2:13pm

Oh, I know, and one of my fundamental and most-repeated lessons to my kids is the moment it's on the internet, it's there forever. That being said, knowing how to access archived web pages is a specialized skill that most people can't do, and scrolling through somebody's Twitter feed requires essentially zero effort. Those tweets wouldn't have come out, because nobody cares enough about Josh Allen to put that much work into it.

Cleaning up his tweets is simple, basic maintenance, and somebody should have done that. There's no reason to expect anyone would have gone further than that.

by Cogitus :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 5:55pm

I honestly don't think this new organization deserves any respect compared to any of the old ones. Sure, McDermott ran a decent-looking draft last year but he's made a lot of questionable decisions as a coach (Peterman, Tolbert nepotism, 4th-down conservatism vs Pats, inept Vlad Ducasse starting over promising John Miller) that don't give me a lot of confidence thus far.

Beane's moves last year during the season were somewhat logical, although I didn't agree with them, and now this offseason looks hypocritical at best. Why give Vontae Davis, an injury-prone veteran, a one-year deal worth more money than what EJ Gaines got from Cleveland when Gaines, despite his injury woes, is younger and already proven to fit well in McDermott's scheme? Why are you giving Chris Ivory so much money for no reason? Why sign Trent Murphy, who has not only injury but character concerns, when he doesn't at all fit the description of what you said you're looking for? Why let intriguing young talent like Darby, Watkins, P Brown, Gaines, and Jordan Matthews all leave for peanuts and then sign an aging veteran like Star Lotuolei for an obscene contract when you're supposed to be rebuilding?

That isn't even delving into the stubborness and unwillingness to correctly use Tyrod or give him any weapons, and then to subsequently run him out of town. If that's how you felt about Tyrod, why didn't you take Watson or Mahomes at pick number 10 last year? Given how allergic the Bills have been to even scouting Lamar Jackson during the draft process and how they seem to undervalue "running QBs" in general it really shows how dinosauric their thought is. So no, I don't trust this management team to be smart enough to avoid Josh Allen. In fact, I anticipate them not only drafting him, but squandering picks to trade up for him as well. My hope is they stumble into Darnold or Rosen and snagging a potential franchise QB like that will patch up a bunch of warts, but my experience as a Bills fan has taught me to avoid positive thinking as such.

by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:27pm

I've been wondering if it isn't something arbitrary and personal McDermott has against Tyrod. Is 'Rod outspoken about politics or anything? Head Coach Biceps worked with Cam for years, after all. Maybe he secretly hated Cam too

by GwillyGecko :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:30pm

have you ever even watched a bills game? a good one to check out would be the 10-3 playoff loss to jacksonville. theres a shining example(of which there are many) of why the bills were eager to dump tyrod.

by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:33pm

What do you mean? My memory of the playoff loss is of Tyrod playing his heart out and eventually getting injured pushing hard and trying to win

by GwillyGecko :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:37pm

yeah, he played so well the bills scored all of 3 points.

17-37-45.9-134 and a pick

by jtr :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 10:13am

The Jacksonville defense was really damn good, and the Buffalo offense was really really short on talent. Ben Roethlisberger threw five picks as a really talented Pittsburgh defense scored all of 9 points in the regular season matchup against Jacksonville last year. That doesn't mean that Ben needed to be shipped to Cleveland for a third.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 10:10am

I remember watching the inspirational story of the Bills signing a roster of wideouts all born without hands.

by mehllageman56 :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 12:45pm

Since they drafted a quarterback who can't throw anywhere near receivers, it all makes sense now, doesn't it?

by Cogitus :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 5:55pm

I honestly don't think this new organization deserves any respect compared to any of the old ones. Sure, McDermott ran a decent-looking draft last year but he's made a lot of questionable decisions as a coach (Peterman, Tolbert nepotism, 4th-down conservatism vs Pats, inept Vlad Ducasse starting over promising John Miller) that don't give me a lot of confidence thus far.

Beane's moves last year during the season were somewhat logical, although I didn't agree with them, and now this offseason looks hypocritical at best. Why give Vontae Davis, an injury-prone veteran, a one-year deal worth more money than what EJ Gaines got from Cleveland when Gaines, despite his injury woes, is younger and already proven to fit well in McDermott's scheme? Why are you giving Chris Ivory so much money for no reason? Why sign Trent Murphy, who has not only injury but character concerns, when he doesn't at all fit the description of what you said you're looking for? Why let intriguing young talent like Darby, Watkins, P Brown, Gaines, and Jordan Matthews all leave for peanuts and then sign an aging veteran like Star Lotuolei for an obscene contract when you're supposed to be rebuilding?

That isn't even delving into the stubborness and unwillingness to correctly use Tyrod or give him any weapons, and then to subsequently run him out of town. If that's how you felt about Tyrod, why didn't you take Watson or Mahomes at pick number 10 last year? Given how allergic the Bills have been to even scouting Lamar Jackson during the draft process and how they seem to undervalue "running QBs" in general it really shows how dinosauric their thought is. So no, I don't trust this management team to be smart enough to avoid Josh Allen. In fact, I anticipate them not only drafting him, but squandering picks to trade up for him as well. My hope is they stumble into Darnold or Rosen and snagging a potential franchise QB like that will patch up a bunch of warts, but my experience as a Bills fan has taught me to avoid positive thinking as such.

by Noah Arkadia :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:18pm

"So no, I don't trust this management team to be smart enough to avoid Josh Allen. In fact, I anticipate them not only drafting him, but squandering picks to trade up for him as well."

Nailed it.

by ssereb :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 2:02pm

I agree with the idea of trading down but I really don't think the Bills are in a position to pass on an exceptional talent like Vita Vea or Tremaine Edmunds falling to them in order to pick up an extra 4th rounder or whatever. If they're not taking a QB they definitely need to be taking the best player available. They should only trade down if they're really swindling their trade partner.

by Noah Arkadia :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:56am

The Jets will take a QB at #3, so if the Giants take a QB at #2, the Bills won't have to suffer the temptation. And the best new is, division rival Jets get Allen!

by jtr :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:03am

If QB's go 1 2 3, that could very well be Rosen, Mayfield, and Darnold in some order. That would leave Allen and Jackson as two of the consensus "top tier" guys left at #4.

by Noah Arkadia :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 12:59pm

Oh, yeah. I forgot about Rosen.

by MilkmanDanimal :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:46am

I don't really doubt Saquon Barkley is an excellent prospect and has a reasonably high chance of being a top-tier RB, but please, please, please let him go before #7 so the Bucs can not take him.

by Steve in WI :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:57am

As a Bears fan I want 4 QBs to go in the top 7. That would guarantee them one of Barkley, Chubb, Nelson, or Fitzpatrick. I would be comfortable with any of those. (Obviously RB is not a position of need for them, but if you get the chance to grab Barkley at 8 I think you do it. I also don't think he will be there anyway, especially with Cleveland picking twice).

I'm nervous that Pace is going to trade up to 6 or 7 because he seems to love trading up a little bit every year. They really need depth and it's hard to build that when you're only getting 5 picks in a draft.

by Dan :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:01pm

I'd rather get Roquan Smith instead of Quenton Nelson.

by Steve in WI :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:10pm

You got your wish. I’m happy with Smith. I still preferred Nelson, but I didn’t want Pace trading up to do it (and I saw one tweet indicating that Pace was trying to but couldn’t get a deal done).

by Dan :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:17pm

Yep, I'm happy. I just think a LB with coverage skills is more valuable than a guard (although they went in the opposite order in the draft). I agree that a desperation trade-up would've been a bad move, and it would've been even better if they'd gotten an offer like the Bills-Bucs deal to trade down. It's amazing that the Bills paid twice as much to move up 5 spots from 12 to 7 as the Cardinals did to move up 5 spots from 15 to 10.

by Steve in WI :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:23pm

A 3rd and a 5th to move up 5 spots in the top half of the first seems like a steal.

by jedmarshall :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:36pm

As a Colts fan, I definitely agree. Not happy with this draft so far.

by justanothersteve :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 1:47pm

So weird going into a Packers draft with a new GM. No idea what he will do after pleasantly surprising me in free agency. Will he pull a Ted and move down? I'm hoping for a pass rusher (esp if Davenport drops), a cornerback, and/or WR who can get open in the first two rounds. After that you hope for the best.

by justanothersteve :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:35pm

WTF? Davenport was right there and Gutekunst trades down. He better have gotten a boatload of picks from NO to drop that far.

by ssereb :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:41pm

He got New Orleans 1st next year and 5th this year.

by justanothersteve :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:45pm

Hate the trade and then NO then picks the guy I was hoping the Pack would pick to make it even worse. Aaaaaaarrghhh!!!!! I guess it's time to channel my inner RJ and get drunk.

by Steve in WI :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:49pm

It seems odd for the Packers to prioritize another 1st next year over a guy who can contribute at a position of need this year. Rodgers ain’t getting any younger...

by commissionerleaf :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 3:43pm

Browns should probably take Chubb or Barkley and then whoever is left of Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield at 4, because if we know anything, it is that the Browns would pick the wrong one given the opportunity.

I heard a glowing review of Chubb "better than Myles Garrett" from Matt Hasselbeck on the radio, but I think the consensus is that Chubb is a good prospect who is being overrated in a weak draft.

Barkley probably is the best RB prospect since Peterson, but that doesn't mean that he will be more useful to an NFL team than one of the Georgia backs who should be gettable in the second round.

by Khemy :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 6:02pm

Looking forward to every team that takes a QB tonight, giving interviews tomorrow and saying they picked "exactly the guy they wanted all along."


by serutan :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 7:42pm

That should all be up on the Internet by around 9:30 PDT, at which time I
can spend around 15 minutes checking out who got picked + getting a chuckle out
of the bobbleheads rating the pick by where he went vs. where they mocked him.
Was wr

by joe football :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 7:45pm

It's time for another (off)season of FO football chat! Much like your team adopting bleeding-edge prospect analytics, FO football chat has migrated to a fancy new platform, from slack to discord. Which means now to join you just click on the discord invite link to get there


Join a star-studded cast of your favorite FO posters for the hours long glorified conference call that is the NFL Draft

by TimK :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:15pm

Why are the Browns not going immediately. They have the fourth pick too, so surely there is a potential advantage in hurrying everyone else up? The Vikings have demonstrated that waiting to the last minute can go badly wrong.

by ChrisLong :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:18pm

Browns with the best pick possible to start. Competent management or blind luck?

by OldFox :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:35pm

I'll go for competent management. It would have been easy to fall for the "AFC North arm" of Josh Allen, or the "potential" of Sam Darnold, but the Browns instead went for the guy who has actually shown something on the field. This might be the first really, really good pick by the Browns since Joe Thomas 11 years ago.

by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:31pm

How is everyone following along? None of the websites promising "live updates" are doing anything of the sort. I've gathered Mayfield went #1 and the Giants picked Barkley. Are any websites working for anyone else? (Not counting twitter, which I don't have)

by TomC :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:34pm

nfl.com/draft/tracker/picks seems to be doing fine

by IAmJoe :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:36pm

Obviously FO frowns upon posting illegal streams, but hypothetically speaking, if one were to search on Reddit for NFL Streams, you could probably find something. I'm watching the WSH/PIT Game 1 on my big monitor, and the NFL Draft on mute on my smaller one.

by bobrulz :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:36pm

It's letting me watch the draft live on my phone through the NFL app, but I'm not sure if that's just a perk of my network (MetroPCS).

by Cythammer :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:38pm

I'm not watching, but it's apparently being broadcast on Fox - not FSN, just regular Fox - so that would probably be the easiest way to follow.

by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:46pm

Thanks all--I figured it out. I was trying to follow links from search results that kept pointing to predraft coverage. Going directly to a site's homepage and following links from there works much better!

by mehllageman56 :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:46pm

I was listening to the radio in Portland, two different stations have it. Both employ people less qualified to talk about the draft than most of the people commenting on FO. 'I can't believe the Browns made this mistake, the Jets have to take Darnold here, The Giants did a great job drafting Barkley. I mean, Jesus.. Thank god Josh Allen isn't going to New York or Cleveland, at least.

by OldFox :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:40pm

Yeah, it is amazing (and disheartening) to see that many of the sports media people, the people who are getting PAID to follow sports, often know far, far, far less than 95% of the people who visit this website. I'm a Browns fan and some of the media guys in Cleveland have been pounding on the table, DEMANDING that the Browns use the #1 pick on Josh Allen. And I'm screaming NO NO NO! If you point out how he grades out (I actually emailed one of them to point it out), their response is that stats don't mean anything, the only thing that matters is the guy's arm. Right, that's why JaMarcus Russell and his incredible arm went to the Hall of Fame. It's just unbelievable how some of the people who know the LEAST about sports are the ones who are getting paid for it. Makes zero sense.

by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:15pm

On CBSsports.com, the Browns were given a "C" for taking Mayfield, and the Bills got a literal "A+" for Josh Allen. We'll see in a few years, but I bet assigning grades at random will look better.

In fact, I'll do just that now, and in 2024 we can compare this comment with the CBS grades (it's in my google calendar!).

01 B-
02 B
03 B+
04 A
05 C
06 B
07 C+
08 A
09 C-
10 B
11 C-
12 A
13 C+
14 C+
15 A+
16 B
17 A-
18 A
19 B
20 C
21 B+
22 D
23 B
24 F
25 A-
26 A
27 B
28 F
29 D
30 B+
31 F
32 C+

Bam! Them's the grades, people!

by ssereb :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:18pm

This may end up being very controversial if the Patriots take Lamar Jackson at 31.

by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:21pm

That's okay. We can pretend these are the 2012 grades, or 2019, or any year at all! If I'm motivated later I'll look to see how this list does for other years too

by BJR :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 7:01am

Grading every team a 'C' would certainly outperform the analysts. As it is, I give you a pick 'em chance.

by Cythammer :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:41pm

I don't really follow all the endless predraft coverage at all because I find it incredibly boring, but wasn't Baker Mayfield not considered at all to be one of the top QBs when everything got started? What on earth could possibly have changed to make him the number one pick?

Oh, and a team with an old, mediocre QB taking a RB at number two is just hilariously dumb.

by Guest789 :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:49pm

Nothing changed, the media just eventually caught up with the league. It happens every year.

by Cogitus :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:49pm

Quenton Nelson is white?

by mehllageman56 :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:50pm

Quinton Nelson is such a good player taking him that early is probably worth it. Luck and Brissett are definitely happy right now.

by ssereb :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:56pm

The Bills trading up to take Josh Allen is worst-case-scenario type stuff.

by Cogitus :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:58pm

where is a ledge i can jump off

by mehllageman56 :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:06pm

Ok, I'm sorry. Would rather the Pats got Allen.

by CaffeineMan :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:16pm

Lol. Hey at least your Jets didn't take him.

by mehllageman56 :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:19pm

Yeah, I know. Dodged a bullet, but with Allen's aim that's easy to do.

by OldFox :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:45pm

Great line!

by jtr :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:04pm

I'd guessed 4 instead of 7, but I was right about Allen to the Bills. These guys thought they'd coached Nathan Peterman into NFL readiness; that's exactly the kind of hubris that leads to thinking you can fix a guy who has physical tools but little quarterbacking ability.

by Cogitus :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:13pm

Yup. The writing was on the wall last year and especially after this disaster of an offseason. 3 years until I can look forward to the next rebuild. At least Pats aren't getting Rosen, although if they get Jackson I will vomit as well

by mehllageman56 :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:57pm

Great, now I can hate Buffalo again. I don't care what you say Raiderjoe, and also, why the hell is Rosen falling? Not sure I'd take Darnold over him, but it's close.

by Raiderjoe :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 11:03am

not sure if u follow me on twitter or nto, bnut my final qb ranikings order was posted beofore draft last ngiht. it was rosen, darnold, Jackson, Mayfield, allen and I had rosen and darnold 1a and 1b. deciding factor on those two being personality

allen is all potential. educated guess of following football long time, is allen will not make it btu would be nice if he did. big athletic guy can throw deep can run btu I made ciomments in allen thread here that he gets discombobulated on field. cannot process what is going on around him. gets very rattled with any pressure. not that quarterbacks love pressure, mind you, btu he was particularly rotten in this area several times I saw him play.

for NY/NJ market, thick skin needed. major importance. think darnold has it. rosen and Mayfield may or may nto. moot point now as one in cleve and other in Arizona. not sure how those two would handle media and fans in NY/NJ. think it is huge deal when playing quarterback in new York and also if pitcher or big deal hitter guy in baseball. so, in toher words, think Darnold excel;elent choice by Jets.

definitely foog pick by Cards. if it doesn't work out,t hen well art least worth the try by them.

Jackson to abltimore tremendous pick. maybe ravens fans have one more season of being annoyied with j. flacco or hopefully for them less than one season

Mayfield to celev- ANY quarterback going there is tough,. not good franchise. but it probably will take very confident, maybe evben brash, semi-jerk guy like Mayfield to push through the tunnel of crap and make that team good.

by The Ninjalectual :: Sat, 04/28/2018 - 1:18am

Are you sure that the NY media has a different effect on players than any other NFL cities' media? I've heard that argument too, but it seems dubious. Maybe it was true 20-30 years ago…not that this is a quantifiable thing anyway, but I just don't see how it could be a real effect

by Raiderjoe :: Sat, 04/28/2018 - 2:05am

Withquarterbacks nd big ticket non-QBs yes.

Have seen m. Wilkerson, eli apple (recent #1 pick of NYG), geno smith, mark sanchez negatively affected by media andnfans andnnot handle things well.

Mayfield im new york with eithr team? Might bave been rough.

Todd Bowles about a month ago specifically made mentionnof this when talking aboit what type pf QB the team wants to draft

So maybe it is not quantifiable andn maybe tjere is no real effect but at least one ofthe two NYC region teans thinks it is to the point if publixally noting it

by mehllageman56 :: Sat, 04/28/2018 - 11:06am

That's also the NYC team that hasn't gone to the Super Bowl in 49 years. The reasoning is understandable, but nothing they've done has worked out that great over the years.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have a quarterback with two sexual assault accusations to match his Super Bowl rings.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Sat, 04/28/2018 - 11:32am

Namath has a sexual assault allegation, too.

by ChrisLong :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 8:58pm

"Anticipation, timing, and accuracy are Josh Allen's biggest issues"-Mike Mayock

Oh is that all?

by bobrulz :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:09pm

"Josh Allen has anticipation, timing, and accuracy issues, and that's why he's my #2 quarterback in the draft." ~ Mike Mayock

by ChrisLong :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:11pm

Hahahaha reality is better than my imagination!

by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:00pm

The Broncos didn't pick Josh Allen, so it could have been worse. I was hoping for Rosen, or a trade down to eventually pick Jackson.

I'm not high on Chubb (and I didn't think that position was a team need), but he has as good a chance of working out as anyone, and that's all anyone will care about in a few years. Plus the Broncos now have a Chubb and a Butt, I suppose that's worth something.

by bobrulz :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:11pm

I was holding my breath when the Broncos picked. I would've been okay with Chubb, Nelson, or Rosen. Though I would rather Lamar Jackson fall to them in the 2nd round.

by The Ninjalectual :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:33pm

I can't believe they turned down the trade that Tampa got. The Bills gave up a whopping 37 AV by the Chase Stuart chart! (Pick 5 is 24 av, 1 overall is only 34). Even by the obsolete JJ chart that McDermott probably uses, he gave up 1900 chart units for 1500 (pick 5 is 1700]

by Steve in WI :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 9:44pm

I don’t see the wisdom of trading a future first rounder for anyone besides a QB. Using basically two first rounders in Davenport means he had better be an All-Pro or it was a bad move.

by Steve in WI :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:07pm

Green Bay essentially traded pick 14 and a 3rd for pick 18, a 7th, and presumably a late first next year. If they didn’t have to miss out on a guy they liked, that sounds like a good deal to me.

by justanothersteve :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:24pm

I hate it. Davenport was about the last of the so-called top tier players left. Alexander is good and the Packers need CBs, but they need a pass rush more and Alexander was considered one of several all on the next tier. It won't take long before Gutekunst realizes that Clay Matthews plays older than departed Julius Peppers.

by dank067 :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 10:33am

I have to think the Packers would have been ecstatic to be able to pick a top-tier pass rusher at 14 and that they wouldn't have played games to see if they'd be able to get him a few slots back. There must be something they really didn't like about Davenport.

by ChrisLong :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:26pm

Yep, I'll take that all day.

by Noah Arkadia :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:44pm

Sounds like the Packers kicked some butt!

by ssereb :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:14pm

Steelers trade Martavis Bryant to the Raiders for a 3rd.

by Raiderfan :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:20pm


by t.d. :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:50pm

I've wanted Lamar Jackson for the Jags forever, and it's gonna hurt to get this close and miss (wanted Deshaun Watson at 4 last year but they knew better)

by ssereb :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 10:59pm

Unless someone trades up in the next two picks, he should be there.

by ssereb :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:21pm

Well, you can't say they didn't have a shot at him, I guess.

by Cogitus :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:36pm


rooting for a different team until 2020 when the next rebuild starts

by IAmJoe :: Thu, 04/26/2018 - 11:40pm

With the Patriots refusing to take a QB in Round 1, is that indicative of them not liking the prospects available, or is that deciding to spend all possible capital on hand to try to get another Super Bowl or two with Tom Brady? If its the latter, is that an organizational decision where everyone is on board, or is that Bill Belichick being irritated that he already went and got a replacement for Brady and saying that this is what you get for not listening to him? I feel like if you are interested in getting Brady's replacement, and you're not too keen on the prospects, maybe you do the classic Pats move of dumping one of this years 1st's for next years to a team that's not great. Then you hope for a 1st in the teens (or better) plus your own 1st to give you more ammunition to move as necessary for that replacement.

Really liked Baltimore going back into the 1st to go get Jackson. I mean, I think its a smart room, and I can't imagine it not being an upgrade over Flacco. I was wondering if NYG might not have paid to move up a couple picks to take him instead, just taking advantage of the situation unfolding as it did.

by Rich A :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 12:11am

I think the early consensus is next year's group of QB's is weaker than this years and that 2nd rounders this year are better than first next year's. Pats are probably going QB with their earlier second round pick.

By having a four year contract they can extend him earlier and thus have him cost controlled longer after an extended look. At least that's what I think (extend him after two years on the bench behind Brady rather than after he's played a bunch in their system that makes players like Cassel look competent and he suddenly demands mega dollars).

by ssereb :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 12:52am

I'm not even sure who the 2019 prospects are...Will Grier, Jarrett Stidham, Trace McSorley?

by Raiderjoe :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 11:04am

northwestern ahs guy with potential. woears #18. thorson or something. looked pretty good the oen time I saw him.

by MC2 :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 12:57am

I'm guessing that Belichick has already decided that he's going to retire (or maybe go to another team) when Brady retires. So, he figures replacing Brady is the next guy's problem.

by Bright Blue Shorts :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 5:02am

It's not an entirely awful idea.

I mean if you're a new coach coming into organisation, do you want to be saddled with the previous GM/HC's pick?

It's great if the previous HC develops the guy into a HoFer, but what's not to say that BB doesn't pick up another Mallet, Cassell or Hoyer?

by mehllageman56 :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 12:44pm

The next guy is probably his offensive coordinator. Either that, or Josh McDaniels is a massive idiot. Still surprised the Pats didn't take Lamar, supposedly Belichick and him bonded when he visited. Guess my karma shirt worked.

by vrao81 :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 12:05am

Anyone else wondering why the Pats took an RB when they needed defensive help?

by Rich A :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 12:12am

Was really surprised by this.

by MJK :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 11:36pm

Here's my take on the RB pick (and the Wynn pick, too). Michel was, according to some scouting reports, the best pass-protecting RB in the draft this year. I see the RB pick as less about "replacing Dion Lewis" or "picking up a playmaker" and more about "making sure our 41 year old star QB who only has so many hits left is protected as much as possible".

Same thing in going OL with their first 1st. They're making sure they have rock solid protection because as Brady ages he will need it (or, if Brady falls off a cliff, they will be playing Hoyer or some scrub at QB, and it's a lot easier to squeeze a few wins out of a bad QB if you have awesome protection for him).

If the Pats had a young, dynamic QB (i.e. if they traded Brady and extended Garoppolo instead of vice versa), maybe they go for defensive talent here.

by ssereb :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 11:42pm

The thing is, if they're that concerned about protection they probably should have just doubled up on offensive linemen. They're still short on depth even after adding Wynn and Brown, who's coming off a labrum injury. It's not like the running backs they currently have are slouches as blockers. Plus, the worse their defense is, the more Brady will have to stand in the pocket and throw instead of handing off.

by The Ninjalectual :: Sat, 04/28/2018 - 1:13am

I'd love to hear Mr. Muth's opinion (or anyone with more experience than me), but it seems to me that a great pass blocking RB is almost as valuable as a great lineman. The flipside is the Pats don't exactly see blitzes very often. Maybe Belichick thinks or fears that will change.

by lenny65 :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 1:22am

Interesting. One would have to assume the Browns (ahem) braintrust felt Mayfield and Darnold were a tier above Allen and Rosen and were certain neither would be there at 4. Otherwise they could have grabbed Barkley and one of the at least two remaining top prospects. If Cleveland took Barkley #1, followed by the Giants going with Darnold (or trading the pick) they felt the Jets would take Mayfield, who they (CLE) obviously favored. They didn't want to get stuck with Allen (highest bust potential) or Rosen so they gulped and pulled the trigger on Mayfield.

IMO the Bills will live to regret Allen over Rosen. Allen has the most bust potential in the class. IMO he's just not NFL ready and if they throw him out there to "learn on the fly" I don't see it going well.

by MC2 :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 2:54am

Maybe they simply preferred Ward over Barkley. After all, they just signed Carlos Hyde, and they already have a very good 3rd down back in Duke Johnson, so they're basically set at RB. Meanwhile, they're in a division with elite WRs like Antonio Brown and A.J. Green, so if they think Ward is a shutdown corner, it makes sense.

I agree with you about Allen. I keep hearing comparisons to Carson Wentz and even Brett Favre, but from the tape I've seen, his accuracy and decision-making are not even close to those guys. I'm thinking Joe Flacco 2.0 is probably the best case scenario. In fact, I think the likely 2nd round guys (Lauletta and Rudolph) are better prospects than Allen is.

by BJR :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 7:12am

The Mayfield pick showed signs of the Browns believing in 'analytics' so it's certainly possible they knew better than to draft a RB that high.

I've read criticism of the Browns not trading down from #4 given there was a good chance Ward would still be there significantly later. However, I think this ignores that the Browns already have so many picks this year (and from last year), that their marginal value gained from extra low round picks gained in a trade this year would be lower than for other teams. For a start they have three 2nd round picks tomorrow, so that is 5 rookies who have almost certainly made the team already. There are only so many roster spots available.

by Steve in WI :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 11:09am

That's a valid point, but my counterpoints would be that 1) they could have tried to make a deal obtaining an extra pick or two next year, and 2) having more late-round picks doesn't necessarily mean that you have to use all of them on players. They could use one of those extra late-round picks to trade up a few spots if they see a specific guy in round 2 or 3 that they really like but worry he's going to be taken a few spots ahead of them.

The other question is, given the way the draft shook out, who would have wanted to trade up to #4 and make it worthwhile? Would the Broncos have given up something to move up a spot to take Chubb, or were they either sure that the Browns didn't want him or comfortable with a backup plan? Similar question for the Colts. Obviously the Bills and Cardinals wanted to trade up for a QB but would they have given up a lot to get to 4?

by Junior :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 2:15am

I was somewhat shocked to see Denzel Ward go at #4. But I've avoided pre-draft talk for the most part, and have not seen a hell of a lot of Ohio State games the past couple years.

Forgive my naivete, was he a major reach at 4 or just about right?

I would have figured Dorsey would opt for a pass rusher or trade down.

by Theo :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 2:36am

DB is a big need and they traded for a safety in the offseason. They have two good pass rushers in Ogbah and Garrett.
If you don't take the guy you like at #4, then where?

by DavidL :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 7:08am

I can't believe the FO mock draft accurately predicted when Lamar Jackson would go off the board for good.

by jtr :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 9:51am

I don't love Terrell Edmunds for Pittsburgh. They had a need at free safety, and Edmunds profiles as a strong safety. Between him, incumbent strong safety Sean Davis, and free agent Morgan Burnett, they now have three strong safeties with very little to no free safety experience. The Steelers play almost entirely single-high looks, so there tends to be very little interchangeability between their free and strong safeties. My best guess is that they're going to try to move Davis to free safety, which would be his fourth position in four years after playing outside corner his senior year, slot corner his rookie year, and strong safety as a second year player last year.

Even with a Davis move, that still leaves them with two presumably starter-level strong safeties; I guess they're planning to play lots of dime next year to make up for the Shazier injury. They may even move Edmunds to ILB full time; he's right in line size-wise with the new generation of mini-linebackers (Deion Jones, Telvin Smith, Deone Bucannon, and Mark Barron), and the Steelers have an excellent defensive line to keep blockers off of him.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 10:25am

Edmunds played some free safety at VT

by jtr :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 10:59am

Didn't realize that, the draft profiles make him out to be a strong safety/dime backer type. I'll probably watch some film cutups this weekend to get a better feel for his game.

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 12:31pm

He did, but the VT system used DB switches, such that he would audible to FS if coverages changed.

Basically, he can play FS/SS/weak LB.

by justanothersteve :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 11:25pm

Burnett also played free safety for two years after Nick Collins had his neck injury. He's a better SS than FS, but he can play both positions.

by jtr :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 10:18am

All of the chatter around the NFL about Josh Rosen this draft season reminds me just how backwards this league can be. Putting aside the possibility of antisemitism, it really seems like the league was entirely unprepared to handle a man who can actually think about something other than blitz pickups for a few minutes. I guess the big programs have been turning out football automatons for so long that half the league is paralyzed when a thoughtful young man manages to slip through the cracks.

by Cogitus :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 11:28am

Agreed---he was my favorite prospect I've seen in a lot time precisely because of his independent personality, which apparently is too much for the fragile egos of management teams around the league. When his talent level is unanimously regarded as the most polished and NFL-ready but still doesn't go in the top 5 because teams question his "character" really just shows how emotionally-driven NFL evaluators are. As Beane gushed why he took ALlen last night---in my eyes insultingly so--"because this man is Buffalo!!". Something about selecting franchise QBs for NFL teams drives them to this place of needing to have an irrational desire to have the QB "fit in" to the region/culture he plays in. Yet this is not needed for other positions, where strict analysis of tape is all that's used, like for Edwards. If that was all that being used to evaluate Rosen, he would have gone much higher but because he is "different" and "abrasive" and doesn't give GMs the fuzzies he goes behind a gooey blob like Allen because Allen is charming and looks like a "real" QB (white, tall, big hands, strong arm, total yes man, "country boy" from a farm---the narrative makes me sick).

I don't know about the antisemitism, but for sure there are race issues in the NFL, as much as I don't want to be that guy to bring it up. How is Allen any different than Lamar Jackson, except Jackson is black and infinitely more productive and attractive as a prospect? You can't tell me that Allen vs Jackson solely comes down to "projection" or the tape, there HAS to be something else lurking insidiously within the subconscious, reptilian minds of NFL decision makers to make that claim. Just that alone to me is enough evidence of at least some racial bias, and we're not even touching Kaepernick, Tyrod's benching, Bridgewater/Watson/Mahomes/Wilson all being undervalued in the draft---the list goes on and on. For being such a "man's sport", almost everyone involved in league power circles sure is a spineless coward not to address this, in addition to being massive hypocrites and being unable to objectively make decisions. Maybe things will change when Goodell is out of power, for the better.

by jtr :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 11:57am

I've been trying to give the NFL a little benefit of the doubt when it comes to African American quarterbacks. At least part of it is that NFL coaches are so freaking conservative strategically. It's not really surprising that the old-school coaches are so opposed to scrambling quarterbacks--they've been taught from day 1 that the quarterback makes plays from the pocket, and they can't imagine doing things any other way. I think that a big part of Buffalo preferring Allen over Taylor or Jackson is that they are so stubborn that they literally cannot conceive of how to design an offense that uses the quarterback's legs as much as his arm. Which is to say that they're incompetent, not racist.

The example that comes to mind is Jameis Winston--he's an African American quarterback, but everyone was comfortable projecting him #1 overall because he plays from the pocket. There must be some amount of racial bias in NFL roster decisions--Eric Reid and Colin Kaepernick would be on a roster otherwise--but don't underestimate the effects of stupidity over malice.

by Cogitus :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 12:16pm

I get your point, although if Buffalo was so insistent on using a traditional pocket passer, why not choose Rosen—who is actually the prototype for an uncreative scheme designed with an immobile QB in mind? Again, cultural bias might be the answer not only in the fact Rosen is Jewish but more in terms of the cultural tendency of the NFL to dislike outspoken athletes in general.

I don’t rule out total incompetence as the main reason, however, as Beane could be so narrow minded in his outlook that he wanted a QB most similar to his direct experience in Carolina, as Josh Allen’s size and game is at least superficially similar to Cam Newtons in that they both are huge, can run, and have rocket arms. But the entire league seemed to have valued Allen over Jackson, not just Buffalo so that speaks to a greater problem in my opinion. I wouldn’t exactly contribute it to outright malice but general ignorance and laziness, which can be just as damaging

by mehllageman56 :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 12:54pm

I'm pretty sure Buffalo wanted the cannon arm. I'm not sure why the Jets took Darnold instead of Rosen, but their choice can be argued. I really hope Rosen's outspokenness (and anti-Trump rants) did not play into it at all. I personally wanted Mayfield, then Rosen, and then Darnold, but mainly anyone but Allen. I would have been fine with Jackson, Mason Rudolph, Lauletta or Mike White, even though the last two or three would have been ridiculous and led to hilarious Kiper rants.

by Steve in WI :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 8:52pm

It would be nice if Ryan Pace could go one draft without trading up. I don’t like giving up next year’s 2nd to get a guy with a 3rd round grade at a position where they signed two significant free agents.

by Dan :: Fri, 04/27/2018 - 9:11pm

Agreed. They gave up a 4th for the privilege of moving down several spots in the 2nd round (while moving it up a year).

by ssereb :: Sat, 04/28/2018 - 2:27pm

Seattle has drafted two edge rushers, a running back, a tight end, a safety, and a punter. No offensive line prospects unless they're planning on converting the tight end. At this point it just seems cruel to Russell Wilson.

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Sat, 04/28/2018 - 2:43pm

Well they did draft a punter, for those times when Russell Wilson fails to Houdini out of a sack on 3rd and long.

by Sixknots :: Sat, 04/28/2018 - 4:10pm

They've now taken an OT out of Ohio State.

by justanothersteve :: Sat, 04/28/2018 - 5:14pm

Packers have drafted WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown. Packers preseason football games just got more entertaining for radio listeners.

by justanothersteve :: Sat, 04/28/2018 - 6:52pm

I am sick. The Packers new GM drafted both a punter and a long snapper. I realize later picks are long shots and I can deal with a late round punter, but a LONG SNAPPER??????

by Guest789 :: Mon, 04/30/2018 - 10:23am

Eh, it was a 7th round pick - those are basically throwaways. They wanted to guarantee they wouldn't lose the guy in the post-draft scramble. I'm more ok with it than the punter in the 5th tbh.

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Mon, 04/30/2018 - 11:56am

If it makes you feel any better, the Lions drafted a long-snapper with the 6th round pick in 2016, and dude didn't even make the team.

by ChrisS :: Mon, 04/30/2018 - 5:20pm

I don't think anyone feels better by being compared to the Lions.

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Mon, 04/30/2018 - 6:13pm

Good point.

by bengt :: Tue, 05/01/2018 - 5:25am

I guess the Steelers count?
They drafted a long snapper in the sixth round last year, because they were afraid he could not be available with their next pick at the end of the seventh in case another team would take him with their 'throwaway' pick.
Then their UDFA long snapper got the job. To round out the humiliation, their original pick not only found a team - but beat the Steelers in the playoffs!

by jtr :: Tue, 05/01/2018 - 9:09am

By the time you're in the fifth or sixth round, you're just taking wild flyers on the slimmest of margins: this guy is 10 pounds heavier, this guy's 3-cone was a tenth faster, this guy has long arms, etc. I vividly remember the Pittsburgh defensive line coach explaining a late-round pick a few years ago; he said over and over again that the guy was 320 pounds but moved like he was 310.

I think it's kind of silly to ding teams much for their late picks; it's basically just making sure you get your favorite UDFA's into training camp. Pittsburgh explained that they took the long snapper just because he was actually NFL-sized as a long snapper. That seems as good a reason for a sixth round pick as any. Most college long snappers are small, because the college punt formation doesn't really require them to block; for big programs, it's mostly just a way to get some donor's shitty kid onto the field. The Patriots drafted a long snapper out of Navy in the fifth round in 2015, and he was the only long snapper AND the only Midshipman selected that year. That's a freaking weird pick right there. He's still on their roster, for whatever it's worth.