Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Most Recent FO Features


» 2017 Adjusted Games Lost

Two NFC teams were hit hardest by injuries last year. One already set the AGL record in 2016, while the other has a coach with the worst AGL since 2002. Also: the Rams' incredible bill of health in L.A., and Tampa Bay's questionable injury reporting.

12 Oct 2006

Scramble for the Ball: Conspiracy Theory

by Bill Barnwell & Ian Dembsky

Ian: You have to hand it to the Colts. They're not dominating anywhere near the level people have been expecting, but they're also finding a way to get it done in close games. The way I see it, there are two likely reasons they keep winning by such small margins. First, other teams have learned that to keep things close against Indy, you just need to essentially go with the Madden "Dime -- Double Wide" defense. Basically, sell out on stopping the wide receivers and force the Colts to run the ball. Sure, they can run for five to seven yards a pop, but it keeps things in check, and the fewer big plays on early downs, the more third downs where your defense has a chance to make a stop.

Bill: Whenever I call that, the computer audibles to a one-WR offense and my safety ends up covering a pixel two yards in front of him while a shifted-to-tight-end Santana Moss runs a 70-yard fly pattern by him. So, basically, my Madden Giants turn into the real ones. But I digress.

Ian: In 2004, the Colts faced 10.3 third downs per game. In 2005, it was 11.7 per game. This season, through five games, they've faced 13.0 third downs per game. More third downs means more missed third downs, and more punts.

As for the other reason their wins are so close, it's conspiracy theory time! The Colts are playing poorly on purpose. Watching Peyton Manning, it's clear to see that when he's in a groove he's incredible, but when things aren't going well it's hard for him to maintain his composure. In an effort to overcome this problem, which has troubled the Colts in playoffs past, the Colts are sandbagging it for the first three quarters of every game. Then, the fourth quarter is when they're finally trying hardest. Constantly playing games like this will better prepare them for tough tests in the playoffs, and hopefully get them over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Is this theory likely to be true? Heck no. But why not, as long as they keep winning. How else to explain what happened against Tennessee?

Bill: They spent the first three quarters filming a DirecTV commercial in the huddle instead of calling plays? Film junkie Manning is trying to reverse engineer the entire Redskins playbook for fun? He keeps calling for Edgerrin James in some weird blitz-pickup equivalent of a booty call? Manning's been sacked seven times in five weeks; he'd gone down once at this point in 2005. That's probably throwing him off some. That being said, the Colts can't continue to play this way and win football games. After the bye week, they're home against Washington, at Denver, and then at New England. Playing the way they have against the Jets and the Titans the last two weeks is going to end poorly for them.

As for the other unbeaten team, how can anyone say that any team is better than Chicago? Only Minnesota's come remotely close to beating them this season, and fate was kind enough to hand the Bears an Arizona team with an injured Larry Fitzgerald and a still-learning-the-playbook Matt Leinart this week. Arizona is basically the really poor man's Seattle, and, well, you saw what Chicago did to the Seahawks. Chicago's bye is followed by home games versus San Francisco and Miami, and they could easily be 10-0 heading into New England on November 26th.

Ian: No doubt, they are the best team in football right now. Common sense and DVOA agree. When I was predicting a division title for Minnesota, it was based on the Vikings having the most consistent quarterback play in the division. Boy, was I wrong. Rex Grossman, isn't just on fire, he's not just in The Zone, he's unconscious. He hits bombs as if he were throwing a three-yard dump-off. The offense is igniting the defense, and the defense in turn is igniting the offense. Is it too early to think they could go 16-0? Well, absolutely. But it's time to start thinking that it's almost time to start thinking about it. If that makes sense.

One thing that definitely doesn't make sense is the performance of The Big Three in fantasy football. What happened? When the season began, it was pretty clear that Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, or LaDainian Tomlinson could carry a fantasy team on their own. As the season's gone on, not only is that not the case, but only Larry Johnson has been really good. Tomlinson seems to be giving up some of his playing time to Michael Turner, and Shaun Alexander wasn't running very well before his foot injury. In my 12-team auction league, the teams that spent over $80 on those three are in third, eleventh and twelfth place (the third-place team has Alexander but has been carried by the rejuvenated performances of Terry Glenn, Keyshawn Johnson, and Amani Toomer). What can we learn from this? In auction leagues, the prices of top running backs have been skyrocketing for years. Maybe people will learn that with the way the NFL changes from season to season, and the way teams like to use other backs to rest their stars, it's time to stop investing ridiculous amounts in one player and build a balanced team.

One running back that's seriously looking like the real deal is Tatum Bell. This guy is looking better and better every week; he single-handedly carried the Broncos offense on Monday night against a tough Ravens defense. Eating yards up in large chunks, juking defenders, breaking tackles -- Tatum did it all. With the game virtually on the line, he even ran over Ray Lewis, taking him for an eight-yard ride during a 12-yard run on third-and-10, leading to the beautifully called touchdown pass to Rod Smith to seal the deal. He was the only player that looked remotely strong in terrible conditions, and you'd better believe he's gonna look extremely good as the season progresses.

Elsewhere around the league, the Jets were stopped stone-cold by the Jaguars. Jacksonville illustrated exactly what it takes to stop the Jets offense: contain the short passes. The Jets are very dependent on completing short passes and getting good yards after the catch. The running game has been almost non-existent (aside from garbage-time against the Jaguars), and long completions usually are actually short completions with long runs. Defend the short pass like the Jaguars did this past week, and the Jets will have a hard time moving the ball. Rookie Leon Washington will have to prove he's better than someone who just piles up yards in garbage time, or Chad Pennington's going to have to be more consistent airing out the deep ball, or the Jets will be in trouble.

The offense that won't be stopped belongs to the Philadelphia Eagles. Donovan McNabb has become a one-man wrecking crew. He's been reading the field beautifully. If the defense makes the slightest mistake on a receiver, McNabb notices and hits the open target. The result is that receivers like Reggie Brown, Donte Stallworth, Greg Lewis, and even Hank Baskett are looking great simply by running the called routes and waiting for the slightest mistake in coverage, when Donovan will quickly hit them for a big gain. Strangely, McNabb continues to make a handful of terrible throws a game, be it short-hops or overthrows. He's so good at scanning the field, however, that he can get away with it. Let's give a lot of credit to their offensive line as well -- the time he's had in the pocket has been a huge part of his success.

Loser Leaguers of the Week

Bill: It was a good week to be a loser. With three negative score performances strengthening Loser League team performances, and Cedric Benson enjoying the first two touchdowns of his NFL career, The Landon Donovan Experience might spend Week 6 feeling like it had graduated to its namesake's German hangover. This was a week to silence those players who were appearing to outperform their expectations through the first four weeks, and, well, Kevin Jones was pretty bad too.

QB: This week's Loser of the Week is Chad Pennington, who contributed to Loser League teams across the land with a whopping -2. Chad went 10-of-17, but gained only 71 yards through the air and threw three interceptions. His 17 rushing yards were nice, but didn't keep him out of the rarefied air of negative-point performances in 2006. Continuing the trend of failing "revitalized" quarterbacks was Pennington's AFC East buddy J.P. Losman, who played a lot like the Losman of old in throwing three interceptions and only throwing for 115 yards. He was able to muster up a meager 3 thanks to a garbage-time touchdown throw to Lee Evans.

RB: Running backs were no exception to the rule this week. The week's low scorer was Laurence Maroney, who couldn't find holes in Miami's defense (more on that later) and earned a 3. Maroney barely nudged out the aforementionedKevin Jones, whose bandwagon broke an axle and could only kill 4 pounds worth of meat this week. Jones' performance was made even sadder by the fact that Jon Kitna matched his rushing output (eight yards) with one carry, while Jones required 10 -- and Kitna even scored a touchdown.

WR: Two steps forward, one step back for the Patriots passing attack. After a huge performance in Week 4, Doug Gabriel came crashing down to earth with a big ol' 0. Miami was fifth in the league against their opponents' #1 WR before the Patriots game, a ranking that's only going to improve after that performance. Muhsin Muhammad picked up ten yards receiving while his team was scoring 40 points, while Laveranues Coles had 19 yards while his team couldn't put any on the board. Both of them were equally woeful in Loser League, though. A 1 is a 1 is a 1.

K: Two kickers tried real hard to be the biggest loser of the week in Week 5. Maybe they had a bet running on it. Unfortunately for them, they could not foresee that the Jets would leave Chad Pennington in to throw three picks. Instead, Ryan Longwell and Olindo Mare were forced to settle for a second-place tie, each taking a different path to their -1: Longwell hitting two field goals but missing an extra point, Mare simply hitting one out of three field goals on the day.

Check out the Football Outsiders comics archive and Jason's wacky Gil Thorp blog.

Keep Choppin' Wood Award

Brett Favre's clutch fumble is certainly noteworthy here, as are Steve McNair's terrible interceptions. This week, however, the Keep Choppin' Wood award goes to Dennis Northcutt. Not for any reason you'll see in the statistics; actually it'll look like Charlie Frye's fault. But Frye threw a perfect pass in the flat to Northcutt that hit him square in the chest, bounced up in the air, and was grabbed by Richard Marshall and returned easily for a crucial touchdown in their low-scoring contest. The pass didn't take him by surprise, either; he was looking right at it, and simply gave away seven points. It's plays like this that certainly deserve a Keep Choppin' Wood award.

Best Bets

Bill: 2-0-1 last week, 9-5-1 overall)

To ignore my warnings, Best Bettors, could be your folly. I was taken to task for saying the Dolphins would play the Patriots close in Week 5, and was rewarded with a push even after the Dolphins changed quarterbacks late in the week. Meanwhile, I said the Jaguars would chalk up 210 yards rushing en route to a double-digit win over the Jets; they got to 181 and ran up 41 points on a Jets team that, in fact, regressed right to the mean -- they now have 103 PF and 132 PA, much more in line with how they've really performed (-3.4% Team DVOA as of Week 4) than their numbers before the Jags game. I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong (see the Eagles game a couple of weeks ago), but I was pretty right last week.

Seattle (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS

This is a bet for DAVE and the team I saw dismantle the Giants, not the one that was summarily taken apart by the Bears. Which one of those teams does St. Louis have more in common with? Right. This would be my Sex Panther Lock of the Week if I was calling it that. Which I'm not. Yet. I'm not sure how much it would take for me to sell out, but I would sure love some corporate sponsorship. Besides, are you going to want to associate your product with Ian's betting? Again, right.

Carolina (+2.5) over BALTIMORE

I will continue to bet against the Ravens, even after they finally came through for me and lost last week to Denver. Watch me ride their opponents all the way, people. In all seriousness, Carolina's going to be able to get to Steve McNair, and all the gritty-scrap-ironness he has in the fourth quarter of games isn't going to bring them back. Carolina with an outright win to save their season.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over Kansas City

On one hand, Pittsburgh has been struggling. Ben Roethlisberger's been playing like a rookie two seasons too late. Hines Ward hasn't been at 100 percent all season. On the other hand, Larry Johnson might be out, Damon Huard is starting on the road, and teams have averaged 16 points per game at Heinz over the last couple of seasons. Call me crazy, but I think the Steelers can score 23 in a game that, much like the Panthers, they'll win to save their season.

Worst Bets

Ian: (1-1-1 last week, 5-7-2 overall)

Just a 1-1-1 week last week, mainly because LJ had to leave injured, and when I wrote last week, "The Washington offense is clicking, and there's no real reason to think the Giants will slow them down," I didn't think the Giants would do the smart thing and play plain, straight-up defense. Everyone loves to blitz like crazy, and the Redskins eat teams alive for doing it by dumping off quickly to immensely talented receivers. The Giants stayed at home and contained the 'Skins nicely. On to the picks.

DENVER (-15) over Oakland

This is fun; let's see how high the lines against Oakland can go before the season ends. I'm willing to lay the 15 here. The Denver defense has been excellent, and even average defenses are eating the Oakland quarterbacks alive. While Randy Moss fantasy owners pray for a trade that will spark his efforts, I'm riding the anti-Oakland train.

Chicago (-10.5) over ARIZONA

Laying 11 points on the road is tough, but this is about the best spot to do it in. Arizona may be riled up in their home stadium on Monday night, but anyone who thinks Matt Leinart has a chance against the Chicago defense is sadly mistaken -- with or without his usual top target.

Tennessee (+10) over WASHINGTON

The Titans had a great formula for success against the Colts last week: Slow the game down, pound the run, and contain the passing game of the opponent. If they can continue to perform well in this regard, I'm happy to take double-digit points against any team in the league other than Chicago.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell and Ian Dembsky on 12 Oct 2006

101 comments, Last at 17 Oct 2006, 4:39am by Sid


by JasonK (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 12:54pm

Northcutt certainly gets the KCW award for my Loser League team. By dropping that pass, he earned the sub-2-catches penalty (as did his running mate, Peerless Price).

by Pacifist Viking (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 12:55pm

My between week 5 and week 6 prediction for the season is that Tatum Bell wins the rushing title.

by Adam, VA (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:00pm

I'd like to nominate Eli Manning for Secret Crappy Quarterbacks Anon. First!

by Aaron B. (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:00pm

Speaking of the Raiders' suckitude, what do you guys think of trading Lamont Jordan for Donte Stallworth straight up?

I realize the hamstring is balky and that Stallworth probably won't play this week. But that can be rehabiliated. "Sucking" cannot.

12-team league, Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, K, D.

My roster:

QB: Brady, Carr

RB: L. Jordan, W. Parker, T. Jones, L. Maroney, Deangelo Williams, J. Norwood

WR: R. Moss, Roy Williams (Upgraded to probable), B. Edwards (Bye), Matt Jones (Bye), Mark Clayton

TE: K. Winslow, C. Cooley

K: Kaeding

D: Philly

by James, London (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:01pm

I haven't read the column yet, but the cartoon is a work of genius.

by James C (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:03pm

"Chicago’s bye is followed by home games versus San Francisco and Miami, and they could easily be 11-0 heading into New England on November 26th."

As good a the Bears are ti would be tricky to head into Foxboro at 11-0 having only played ten games.

by Bob S (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:08pm

Which 2 RB's do I start this week?

Ronnie Brown @ NYJ
Steven Jackson vs Seat
Tatum Bell vs Oakland

by bartleby (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:16pm

What, no fantasy mailbag?

by Tom Kelso (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:28pm

Wow, Bill, is Will Demps on your Madden Giants team, too?

When even Tyrone Calico, areceiver with absolutely no guile or moves at all, can get behind you, you are a special safety.

by dryheat (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:34pm

I was taken to task for saying the Dolphins would play the Patriots close in Week 5, and was rewarded with a push even after the Dolphins changed quarterbacks late in the week

Leaving aside the fact that a push is now considered a reward, I don't think anybody took you to task for saying the Dolphins would play the Patriots close. Everybody knew that. As I recall you were taken to task for justifying your pick by stating that the Dolphins were better than they were in last year's match-up, and that the Patriots were a worse team than they were during that time despite four weeks of evidence to the contrary.

by JonL (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:44pm

Is Barlow worth starting this week vs. the Dolphins, or is he not getting enough carries for it to matter? My other option is Dunn vs. the Giants.

Also, I've been offered the Baltimore D and Cotchery for Dunn and Greg Jennings. Thoughts?

by Aaron Boden (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:44pm

Fantasy question.

Who should I start. Grossman @ ARI, Bledsoe @ HOU, or Bulger @ SEA?
I think all of these matchups are good.

by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:45pm

You've gotta love an Oregon Trail reference! Was I the only one that never spent a single penny on food and instead just filled up on ammo??

by Adam B. (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:57pm

Fantasy Answers:

7. Tough call. I sit Ronnie, I guess.
11. Dunn's always solid. I'd stay with him. The trade depends on who your present D is.
12. Bulger, but they're all decent answers.

Fantasy Q:

Who has more value, both for this season and as a keeper -- Reggie Williams or Roy Williams?

by zip (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:57pm

Bell and Jackson, Miami sucks.

Dunn is more consistent, seems like Barlow is nothing but a goal line back. I prefer consistency so I'd go with Dunn

Need information about your WR/RB depth for the trade, but it doesn't look like a good deal to me.

Those are some good choices. I like Bledsoe, I think Chicago will crush Arizona with D early and not throw much. Guess Bulger @Sea could be a real shootout, check the weather I guess?

by Pacifist Viking (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 1:59pm

I'm convinced that Shanahanigans is going to have Tatum Bell rush for 150 yards and 3 TDs against the Raiders. I'm probably just working myself up over nothing.

by noah of the ark (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 2:03pm

Yes, dryheat, but the game showed Bill to be right... except for the ugly flood of mistakes, the Dolphins outplayed the Pats bad in this one. I mean, fumbles, INTs, key penalties and dropped passes, missed field goals, and muffed punts count of course, but as far as talent, Bill was definitely right.

BTW, the cartoon was great, but "the Landon Donovan experience" cracked me up. I'm Mexican, you know...

by JonL (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 2:04pm

Yeah, I'm not sure about the trade either. My other RBs are McGahee and Barlow, plus I proposed a trade for Addai. My other WRs are Wayne, Colston, Horn and Furrey. I can probably get by with the Dallas D.

by Adam B. (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 2:10pm

Jon: You need Dunn right now. You also need to not have two Saints WRs. Trade Colston for a top-15 guy.

by zip (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 2:10pm

Yeah I think it's a bad trade.. you're downgrading two positions to upgrade one.

by dryheat (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 2:13pm

I find it hard, if not impossible, to say Miami outplayed New England, or that they are more talented.

If you exclude turnovers, penalties, and dropped passes, what criteria exactly are you using to determine "outplayed"? The eight to ten plays that worked perfectly?

Can I likewise say that if you exclude Brady's bad passes, penalties, the offense's not opening holes for the running game, and using the fourth quarter to run out the clock that the Patriots outplayed the Dolphins?

by Balaji (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 2:24pm

Denver's only giving 15 points? I'd almost be willing to go to 20 on that game. I've had the dubious pleasure of watching Oakland nearly every week (they usually play a late game), and I can't recall a worse team overall.

by Oswlek (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 2:42pm

Seeing how I am the one that Bill was referring to, I thought that I would add my two cents.

"...even after the Dolphins changed quarterbacks late in the week" - You say it as if this was a negative, but, if anything, it was this change that led to Miami keeping it close. The line looked much better, and I'm sure that they did play better, but it is easier to block for a guy who gets the ball out of there quickly. Harrington played much, much better than Culpepper has played in any game this year.

* Wes Welker. I love him. Easily my favorite non-NE player in the league. I can't remember a play where he *didn't* get open.

* It was pretty obvious that NE was playing with an offensive deck that was about 20 cards short. This was a classic "score a few points and then let the other team shoot themselves in the foot" game.

* Miami played well, but for those who want to exclude Miami's mistakes, you must also be willing to exclude the 3 plays where Brady and the WR had a clear miscommunication. On all three plays, a first down would have happened, yet in every case the drive ended in that series of downs without any points. I would be willing to bet that NE had at least 3 others that weren't obvious to the naked eye.

All that said, I never disputed that the line was a little too high. These two regularly give each other fits even when one team is not nearly as good as the other. Just two years ago, Miami came into NE with an offense that was historically bad, yet they scored 10 points and were in the RZ two other times without scoring. I'm sure that I'm not breaking any new ground here, but division games don't always go the way that the numbers say they should. But I still feel that the "NE is worse and Miami is better" statement is ridiculous.

BTW, Bill. DO you still believe that Miami is going to hit the over on the 9?

by calig23 (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 2:45pm


Michael Vick(Giants) or Big Ben(Chiefs) as my #2 QB for this week?

by DaveP (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 2:59pm

I've guessed wrong every time so far so let's see if I can keep the trend going. Grossman or Hasselbeck? I'm leaning towards Seattle being in a shootout.


by Bill Barnwell :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 3:07pm

quick replies:

#8 - apologies! if anyone has any questions - feel free to e-mail them and we'll respond. it'll be back next week.

#9 - i miss the days where shaun williams was a 90+ safety.

#10/#21 - i'd say a push is a reward when the starting qb changes mid-week. as for my talent level statement, i think the way the game went pretty much confirmed that for me. as for your second post, i never said the dolphins were more talented - because they aren't. i said the dolphins talent base had improved and the patriots talent base had decreased. doesn't mean they overlapped.

#17 - i kinda wish marquez had elbowed landon at this point instead of cobi jones. actually - i hate cobi jones - i kinda wish he had elbowed both of them.

#23 - i was saying in the offseason that wes welker was miami's best receiver and i was getting laughed at. now...

it's true that harrington outplayed culpepper, but generally, changing a QB in midweek, i would think, ends up with a favored opposition at home covering more than normal. of course, i could be wrong about that.

i don't think miami will be under 9, cincinnati under 9, or - sigh - baltimore will be under 9.

by Aaron B. (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 3:17pm

Should I trade Lamont Jordan for Donte Stallworth? Any thoughts? See post 4 for roster effect.

by Jeremy (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 3:18pm

How many points would the Patriots have won by if both teams' talent level had stayed the same from last year? 17? 24? 42?

by Dash (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 3:21pm

#4 - I wouldn't make the trade. I don't think Jordan's stock can go much further down, and in that time you can wait & see how Stallworth heals (or go after a healthy WR2)

#7 - Definitely Jackson & Bell.

#11 - Start Dunn. Don't make the trade. You can play matchups on D/ST and keep Dunn, and end up with more points than if you were playing Barlow and Baltimore.

#12 - I'd go Bledsoe vs. the #32 pass defense (DVOA), but Bulger's a good play too.

#24 - Vick. Big Ben hasn't gotten much better, and KC's pass defense is decent. The Giants' pass defense is #27, according to DVOA, so if Vick's going to be able to throw, this would be the week.

#25 - I'd agree, but then again, my advice hasn't gotten me anywhere in my fantasy league (but I blame that on Brown and the MIA o-line to make myself feel better).

by Pat (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 3:26pm

#27: That's not a great trade, but I'd do it. The Raiders don't face a weak run defense until Houston, and you've got enough decent RBs that you'll probably never start Jordan anyway.

Your WRs scare me, though. Can't get any other WRs instead of Stallworth?

by Dash (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 3:30pm

I need to start 2 of these 3:

C. Johnson (@ TB); Coles (vs. MIA); or Branch (@ STL)

I've been thinking about starting Branch over Coles since Engram is likely not playing, but MIA's pass defense isn't great. Thoughts?

by Gerry (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 3:32pm

"I’d like to nominate Eli Manning for Secret Crappy Quarterbacks Anon"

Hm. 6th in DPAR. 7th in DVOA. 6th in passer rating.

He has struggled coming out of the gate (23 of 40 for 298 yds, 1 TD, 3 int, 10 1st downs on attempts 1-10). Which makes him 75 of 106 for 851 yds, 8 TD, 2 int, 46 1st downs on attempts 11-on. Not terribly shabby, at all.

He's getting close to qualifying for the Secretly Really Good Quarterback Who Is Secretly Considered To Be Really Crappy By People Who Have Not Looked At Things Since People Prematurely Called Him Really Good When He Was Likely To Be A Disappointment Club.

by Bill Barnwell :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 3:33pm

#28 - 147. Tom Brady's innate connection with Deion Branch would've been so strong that the force connecting Branch's hands with Brady's would've decapitated several Miami cornerbacks, causing them to play pass defense in a manner much more similar to that of the Giants' secondary.

Unfortunately, that awful Bill Belichick had to trade Branch before Brady's connection could fully charge.

by zip (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 3:47pm


Isn't Coles almost leading the league in receptions? I would take him over Branch, Hasselbeck has too many other options.

by Josh (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 3:59pm

Who to start at WR: Rod Smith vs. Oakland, or Jerricho Cotchery vs. Miami? Both defenses pretty weak against the pass, Denver will likely have more TDs, Cotchery having the better year though Rod Smith obviously has been better in past years and may be due. I'm leaning towards Smith, would appreciate any input.

by Reinhard (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:01pm

In the brackets: (Def DVOA, Pass DVOA)
Pennington vs MIA (-3.4%, 23%)
Plummer vs OAK (8.7%,24.9%)
Rivers vs SF (17%, 19%)

Finally my QBs get a break! Which one is the best bet to have the best fantasy game? In a way I'd say Pennington since the Jets are terrible runners and pass defense is Miami's weakness... but I'm a little weary after last week, but it WAS against Jacksonville. And Rivers and Plummer might not have to throw very much, but it wouldn't matter if they put up some TDs. What do you guys think?

by Josh (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:02pm

#31, 34 re Coles: Miami has a very good pass D so far this year against #1 WRs, for what it's worth five weeks in to the season.

by calig23 (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:05pm


After the game, however, Tedy Bruschi would have reattached all of their heads.

He's that kind of guy.

by Reinhard (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:06pm

and uh, I'm not weary, I'm wary. Whoops

by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:09pm

Re: 32

He was pretty good in the Indy and pedestrian in the Washington games. And he was god-awful in the first 3 quarters of both the Philly and Seattle. And the only reason for the way the Philly game ended was a mid-game injury to Rod Hood that created an obscenely good matchup for NY's big WRs against Philly's midget 3rd and 4th DBs. Calling him "Really Good" is repugnant.

by Starshatterer (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:10pm

Reinhard (#39 )--

You could be weary after watching that beat-down the Jaguars put on last week.

by Reinhard (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:14pm

To whom it may concern:
Pass defense DVOA breakdown:
-15%, 50%, 8%, 7%, 56% (Oakland)
20%,2%,-8%,73%,-10% (SF)
-23%, 95%, 21%,20%,-40%(Miami)

This means that either Rod Smith or Javon Walker will be against 50% in Oakland, Gates will be against the 73% in SF, and... who is %2 for the Jets? He's in for a big game according to DVOA.

Side note: I'm willing to bet that the Niners have been so bad against TE because their defense is so bad that the LB's are focusing really hard on the run, and get beat by play-action.

by Gerry (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:39pm

"He was... pedestrian in the Washington game[s]."

23 for 33 for 256, 1 td, 0 int, 9 1st downs. 102.6 passer rating. 8.3 DPAR. Perhaps that is pedestrian, but if so then why did pretty much every other QB except one or two do worse?

"And he was god-awful in the first 3 quarters of both the Philly and Seattle"

Already mentioned his problems with passes 1-10, which would mostly (but not entirely) fall in quarter one. So let's look at the 2nd and 3rd in those two games.

2nd q v Philly and Sea: 9-15, 88 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 3 1st downs. Now that is pedestrian-- but not at all God-awful (see, Walter, Andrew).

3rd q v Philly and Sea: 8-12, 85 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 6 1st downs. That is not God-awful. That is not merely pedestrian. That's pretty good.

The guy has his flaws. He's overhyped in many quarters. But more than a handful of folks around here are overcompensating, at least when viewed from the perspective of this year's performance. The Giants' problem has not been Manning. It has been a complete inability to stop third-and-long conversions against Peyton, Hasselbeck, and McNabb, coupled with too many offensive penalties.

by ChrisFromNJ (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:40pm


He was only god-awful in the first half of the Seattle game; the poor start against the Eagles is almost wholly attributable to an OL that temporarially forgot how to block and let the strong Eagles DL rack up 8(!!!) sacks. Even if he's not the best quarterback when it comes to handling pressure, it's simply impossible to put all or even most of the blame on him in that situation.

Also, re: the Washington game, I wouldn't exactly call a ~70% completion percentage and a 100+ QB rating "pedestrian". While I'm not yet willing to call him "really good" (consistency remains a huge sticking point), to dismiss the suggestion as "repugnant" is, well, biased to say the least.

by Pacifist Viking (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:44pm

Viking fans look at Eli Manning's numbers and say "I wish our team could be that pedestrian."

I'll be one of the repugnant people who thinks little Eli is really good.

by Gerry (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:48pm

Yeah, I meant to hit on that repugnant line. Re-read 32. I did not say he is really good. I said he is close to being really good. He needs to come out of the gate better, and as #44 stated, consistency needs to be improved. But, yes, I would say he is close to being really good.

If you find that repugnant, well, that does not bother me in the least.

He's made marked improvement in his completion percentage this year. That was one reason so many of the FO writers were bearish on him. IIRC, his comparables when run this off-season were a mixed bag-- some stars, some Jay Schroeders. If he stays at this pace for the rest of the year, I am very interested in seeing what his comparables would work out to be.

by Adam B. (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:51pm

Seriously, yo, any thoughts on #14? Who has more value, both for this season and as a keeper — Reggie Williams or Roy Williams?

by NoJo (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:53pm

WR question: I need to start 2 of:
C. Johnson (@TB), T. Owens (vs HOU), J. Walker (vs OAK)

I feel like if Owens has anything left in the tank, he's going to make sure that he show it this week. They're all playing weak defenses. Who to start?

by Gerry (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:55pm

Adam, as a Roy Williams owner, in a dynasty (all-keeper) league, since he was a rookie-- if I could get Reggie Williams for him, I would. It might be a bit of selling-low to buy-high, but Reggie was supposed to be good, and Roy has been showing some attitude problems which are rarely helpful.

by ChrisFromNJ (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 4:55pm


"If he stays at this pace for the rest of the year, I am very interested in seeing what his comparables would work out to be."

At what point does "Eli Manning Similarity Stats" enter the FO lexicon?

by ChrisFromNJ (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 5:03pm

And by "Lexicon" I mean "Glossary". It's already in the unofficial lexicon.

by Pat (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 5:06pm

Owens is a given versus Houston. The other two are a bit more subtle. Oakland's been horrible versus #2 WRs but they've been giving up TDs, and not much yardage, and I don't think Walker's a red-zone type receiver. With Oakland's offense, I don't think that they'll be needing many of the deep throws that make up Walker's skill set. I'd go with Johnson versus Tampa Bay.

by cjfarls (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 5:06pm

re:4 I'd make the trade... although Stallworth is risky...

re:7 I'd go Brown (vs. soft Jets middle) and Bell

re:11 Stick with Dunn

re:12 I'd go Bulger

re:25 I'd go Hass, but thats probably because I'm still having trouble believing that Chicago has a real QB... who woulda thunk it?

re: 35 I'm a Donkey-homer, so I say "In Rod We Trust"

Okay, my questions:
Eli Manning @Atl, or Hasselbeck @StL and
Philly @NO or Pitt v.KC and finally
Gore v.SD or Caddy v.Cincy

I'm leaning towards Hass & Pitt & ??

by compucrazy (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 5:08pm

Fantasy football question of the week. Do you play Frank Gore against the Chargers or Tatum Bell vs. the Raiders? Frank gore is wauy better overall but do matchups matter that much?

by cjfarls (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 5:13pm

Re:54 You're kidding right? Definitely Bell... not even close. A) its Oakland, which is not only horrible, but is so hated that Denver will run up the score on 'em, and B)Gore is good, but its not like you're sitting LJ, LT or Rudi...

by NoJo (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 5:27pm

54: Bell all the way. No question.

53: I don't know about your QB or D, but I'd go with Gore vs SD. I realize that's a tougher defense and Caddy showed some signs of life last week, but I don't think that I'm convinced that he'll do much.

by Tom Kelso (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 5:54pm

#33 -- In light of that, I would like your opinion on:

Da Bears vs. North Korea

by zip (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 6:16pm

53, 56

I say go with Caddy. SF will probably playing from behind against a real defense, so not much running and not much success. Cincy is still very suspect against the run and TB won't want to put the game on Bruce's shoulders. My only concern would be Cincy has a pretty good chance of going ahead early (just like SD) and negating the run, but still, I like Caddy vs the Cincy line a lot more than anyone vs the SD Front 7.

by Jake (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 6:34pm

I think I'm in the Top 5 overall for the Loser League.

I say "I think" because I don't actually remember if that's my team.

by CaffeineMan (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 7:08pm

Bill: Whenever I call that, the computer audibles to a one-WR offense and my safety ends up covering a pixel two yards in front of him while a shifted-to-tight-end Santana Moss runs a 70-yard fly pattern by him. So, basically, my Madden Giants turn into the real ones. But I digress.

I've never played Madden, but that is still freakin' hilarious...

by Geoff (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 7:19pm

I'm trying to fortify my WR corp. The league is a keeper league(keep 2) and I've offered Leon Washington to a couple teams. I have a definite offer of Keyshawn, with possible offers of Terry Glenn and Greg Jennings. Anyone have any opinions on those 3 from here on out?

My other WRs are: CJ, Berrian, Antonio Bryant, Drew Bennett(start 2-3)

by HLF (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 7:35pm

I'm number 2 in Loser league, but quite a ways behind those Oorang Indians. My wide receivers are sucking too badly, they're getting me penalties.

by VarlosZ (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 9:18pm

"Seattle (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS

This is a bet for DAVE. . ."

Actually, DAVE says that St. Louis +3.5 is a good bet. According to DAVE, the line should actually be 1, not 3.5. This year, in fact, DVOA is all over the underdogs, picking them 63.2% of the time so far. (Last year, it was all about the favorites.)

by chris (not verified) :: Thu, 10/12/2006 - 11:46pm

I really need some help here. I'm trying to dump off Steven Jackson for much needed WR help (Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Chambers and Cotchery). I'm solid at Rb with LJ, T. Bell and Maroney. The best and only offer I've had has been Harrison and Reggie Brown for Jackson and Cotchery. I'd normally say no to this trade as I'm getting a #2 & #3 WR for a #1 Rb and a #3 wr. I just hate seeing my season go down the toilet with Fitz hurt and Chambers a bust. I've tried to offer Jackson for Holt strait up, but no luck. What was a great draft plus LJ as a 1 year keeper is turning into a disaster. My league has odd keeper rules, you can keep 1 player that was drafted from the sixth rd on. Which is why I can't really get rid of Bell or Maroney. Any thoughts or suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

by Stevie (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 3:32am

Oh Michael Koenan my loser league MVP how I miss you kicking. I was amazed to get my juicedigors into the top 5 last week. I really like my selections of Brunell and Randle El but Fred Taylor is killing me (thanks whoever recommended him) and Barlow is playing bad but picks up alot more touchdowns then we'd like. Bring on the 2nd half of the LL season!

by Mitch Cumstein (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 6:20am

64, I dont know if I would call Chambers a bust, underperforming so far, yes, but I think it is a little early for bust. For comparison, here are his stats for 2005 vs 2006 through 5 games.

2005- 21 rec, 264 rec yd, 94 rush yd, 1 td
2006- 21 rec, 210 rec yd, 74 rush yd, 2 td

And I am not sure in what league Marvin Harrison is a #2 WR (a 5 team league maybe). Without knowing the point system or starting lineup requirements, the trade you mention is arguable. But I also wouldn't be too concerned over having to start A. Johnson and Chambers while Fitzgerald is out. If Chambers has been a "bust", Johnson has been a "boom".

Now, for the seldom asked defense/special teams question. My main Defense, Jacksonville, is on a bye. I had previously picked up NY Jets with the thought of starting them this week against Miami at home. Then they get torched last week and cause me some concern. Pretty deep league, and points for defense are about 50% rush, net pass yards allowed and points allowed, and 50% turnovers, sacks and td's. So here are my only other options among free agent teams not on a bye this week:

Arizona (vs Chicago)
San Fransisco (vs San Diego)
Detroit (vs Buffalo)
Oakland (at Denver)
Tampa Bay (vs Cincinnati)
Tennessee (at Washington)
Houston (at Dallas)

Should I drop the J-E-T-S and go with one of those teams, or stick with them against Harrington. On matchup, I would say Detroit is the most viable option, but they are boom or bust as well, and rank about the same so far in our system.

by Geoff (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 9:15am

66: I'd stick with the Jets. Detroit's really the only other option, I'd even consider.

64: I would not do that deal. Jackson is worth a lot more than Harrison and Cotchery for Brown is basically a wash. A. Johnson has been excellent, Miami's pass game is improving with culpepper gone, Fitzgerald isn't gone for the season, and even cotchery is a decent play in a pinch.

by DaveP (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 10:19am

I've got to fill my W/R slot and everyone's on a bye week. Do I go with Norwood@NYG or Baskett@NO?

by Bill Barnwell :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 11:21am

I have brought up previously that I'm not particularly sanguine on Chris Chambers' chances of having a breakout year. The first few weeks have done nothing to dissuade me from holding this opinion.

Pointing out that Chambers' stats were equally as mediocre last season isn't any proof that he's going to have a hot last half of the season - it hasn't been established as a trend beyond a single season, which simply isn't sufficient proof. It's sorta like saying since Terrell Owens had bacon and eggs for breakfast today like he did two weeks ago, he's going to OD on painkillers again in a couple hours.

In fact, Miami's schedule from here on out is more difficult than the teams Chambers faced in Weeks 1-5. Not a good sign.

#63 - DAVE ranks Seattle 4th and St. Louis 18th. I don't see how that could make a St. Louis line at +1 a good pick.

by MCS (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 11:38am

Sacks and Turnovers + low score bonus. Which team defense has the better match-up?

Atl vs NYG
KC at Pitt

by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 11:43am

Re: Eli

I was watching the NYG/WAS and the CHI/BUF (I think it was that game) at the same time, so I didn't watch Eli's every snap in that game. But just judging by those numbers, I'll have to admit that pedestrian was probably a little harsh. From what I saw, he wasn't doing anything particularly special. I guess I'm just spoiled by McNabb's MVP-type season and it's skewing my definition of pedestrian.

by noah of the ark (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 12:49pm

I don't know, Bill. I'm not 100% sure, but I believe Chambers has picked up his game in the second half of the season pretty much every year (which has been attributed to his being slow to adjust to new offenses season after season). Every year's a new year, though.

As for Cobi, he looks a bit cocky, but nothing like the T.O. to the second power that Landon Donovan is... may his soul rest in peace (yeah, while he's still alive. Why bother afterwards?).

by Pat (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 1:05pm

#63 - DAVE ranks Seattle 4th and St. Louis 18th. I don’t see how that could make a St. Louis line at +1 a good pick.

It's at St. Louis, so there's a 17% DVOA swing for St. Louis. With that, the difference between them is only ~3%, which is about 1 point.

by Eli (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 1:10pm

another larry fitzgerald casulty, hoping for some advice:
hasselbeck vs. stl or rivers vs. san fran
flex spot--frank gore vs. san diego or mike furry vs. the bills
and should i try to trade colston for a top wideout if i already have crumpler at te?

thanks for the advice

by NoJo (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 1:28pm

Now I managed to get Berrian off of waivers. I think that I'll start him over Chad Johnson. Is that crazy? Johnson just hasn't been producing and I feel like going with the hot hand is a good idea

by Pegskin (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 2:09pm

I have an elimination/"suicide" pool question if that's OK. I've narrowed it down to Denver, San Diego, Dallas, and Washington, leaning toward Denver. Any advice for me?

by Pat (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 2:58pm

I'd consider Dallas or Washington - most likely Washington, since Carr can actually play quarterback, and Dallas has shown that its secondary can be picked on (though whether or not Carr will still be upright by the end of the game is another question). No reason to waste a Top 10 team (Denver, San Diego) at this point, in my mind. Plummer's also been erratic enough that the Oakland defense might be able to score some points and upset the game, though I doubt it.

Denver could also end up fighting for a wildcard spot, and needing to win the last game - versus San Francisco. That'd be an easy pick.

Definitely save San Diego for the rematch versus Oakland, though.

by Ray (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 3:15pm

Okay I need some quick help here:
Plummer vs Oak
Vick vs NYG

I know that Oak is horrible, but Plummer hasn't been lighting it up, and there's a chance that Denver could run the ball all day. But then, Vick may have to pass well against the Giants, which shouldn't be hard, but...

by Kal (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 3:20pm

#78: I think you have to go with Plummer, on the grounds that he will at worst have an okay day, and likely have an insane day. Vick is going against a decent defense whose weakness is the pass, and that's not the best thing ever for Vick.

If it wasn't Oakland, I'd say someone else, but I think Plummer will get at least one rushing TD and probably a passing TD off a screen or something.

by bob (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 3:30pm

Standard scoring, WR only flex. Pick 2 - LJ, Warrick Dunn, Willis McGahee or Thomas Jones? Thanks.

by Ray (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 3:39pm

Thanks for the advice Kal, I think you're right. It's too good of an opportunity to play a QB against Oakland.

I do have another situation that's the same as Eli above:

Hasselbeck at StL
Rivers at SF

Any thoughts out there? I've got Hasselbeck in there now, but SF is pretty bad and Rivers has been pretty good...

by Kal (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 3:43pm

#81: You've got to go with Hass. Alexander isn't starting, StL gave up 37 points to the frickin Lions, Branch and Jackson will be the starting receivers, Hass is coming off a bye, and Seattle's D seems not great. It's like a big explosion of passing yards waiting to happen.

Rivers vs SF could also be decent, but this is Martyball potentially - he could throw for a bit but he may not end up throwing much at all.

I've got a similar conundrum, except I've got Eli Manning instead of Hass. And Atlanta's D is a lot better than STL's.

by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 4:07pm

Re: 76 & 77

See, I don't subscribe to the "save the top teams as long as you can" strategy. I've been burned too many times that way. The way I look at it is that saving the really good teams doesn't do you any good if you're eliminated before you get the chance to use them. So I would definitely go with Denver.

by Gerry (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 4:38pm

"I guess I’m just spoiled by McNabb’s MVP-type season and it’s skewing my definition of pedestrian."

Something we can agree on- McNabb has been incredible.

by Bill Barnwell :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 4:56pm

Thanks Pat. That makes sense I suppose -- so I am now officially going AGAINST DAVE. Great. I might as well try and block ROBO-PUNTER.

by Pat (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 5:59pm

The only player who attempted that caused ROBO-PUNTER's punt to land at the 2, because it was weighted down by his internal organs as the ball punched right through him.

Funniest line from that whole thread.

by Pat (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 6:04pm

See, I don’t subscribe to the “save the top teams as long as you can� strategy. I’ve been burned too many times that way.

Oh, I'm not suggesting that in general. All three of those matches are almost guaranteed wins - c'mon, it's Oakland, Houston, and Tennessee. I think it's almost a complete wash between the three of them.

Plus, look at Washington's remaining schedule. If you're going to ever use Washington, it'd be either this week or versus Tampa Bay.

by MR (not verified) :: Fri, 10/13/2006 - 6:50pm

Any opinions on acquiring B Berrian or Reggie Williams in trade for J Addai?
Also, I've been offered S Alexander & M Vick for D Brees, M Jones-Drew, & Chad Johnson? I want to jump on this; the only caveat being that it would leave me Hawks-heavy, with M Hasselbeck, J Brown, M Morris & the SEA DEF. Remainder of RB corps would be Rudi Johnson & C Perry.

by Towwb (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 1:51am

Trying to come back from a 1-4 start, do I shoot for combo points and start Hasselbeck+Branch over Grossman+Colston? Or do I go 3-WR and kick Gore out of my flex spot?

by Tom Kelso (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 10:21am

OK, I can start two of three:

Berrian vs. ARZ, R. Brown vs. NO, or Cotchery vs. MIA. My opponent in this league this week has McNabb.

by Tom Kelso (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 10:22am

I just looked at those options -- God, my receivers suck.

by calig23 (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 11:19am

Speaking of WRs...

Rod Smith(Oakland) or Mushin Muhammad(Arizona)?

by Kal (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 12:08pm

#90: I would go with Cotchery and Berrian. Cotchery could have a big game against a Miami D that sucks against the pass, and Berrian is more likely to have a big game. Reggie Brown could be nice (and mitigate the problems with McNabb) but McNabb seems to pass it to...well, whoever.

#92: I think you have to go with Smith; Oakland is just that bad.

by Not saying (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 12:17pm

Re: 74
"hasselbeck vs. stl or rivers vs. san fran
flex spot–frank gore vs. san diego or mike furry vs. the bills"

I have a similar situation. I'm picking (for now, anyway) Hasselbeck and Gore. Don't know how others feel.

"and should i try to trade colston for a top wideout if i already have crumpler at te?"

Not sure if Crumpler will get over his his case of the dropsies. Also depends how you see Vick developing back to passing (very iffy in my opinion). I'd see what kind of offers you can get.

by VarlosZ (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 3:14pm

#63 - DAVE ranks Seattle 4th and St. Louis 18th. I don’t see how that could make a St. Louis line at +1 a good pick.

It's because St. Louis is at home. The difference in DVOA (according to DAVE) is 20.4%, but when you factor in home field advantage, the diference drops to 3.4%. That correlates to roughly 1 point's worth of expected on field performance.

by Eli Sprecher (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 4:40pm

thanks 'not saying'--I was offered harrison for colsted, and i have crumpler at te...thoughts?

by MCS (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 5:30pm

Larry Johnson @ Pitt


Maurice Morris @ StL

Any thoughts?

by Not saying (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 5:55pm

Re: 96

I would probably take Harrison for Colsted. I think Crumpler can improve enough to make that okay.

Re: 97

Word on the street is that LJ is probable and will play. That said, play him.

by Mike (not verified) :: Sun, 10/15/2006 - 12:39pm

I need help...I've got 5 good WRs going against 3 good pass defenses and 2 bad pass defenses.

S. Smith (CAR) vs BAL
P. Burress (NYG) vs ATL
M. Colston (NO)vs PHI
B. Berrian (CHI)vs ARI
L. Evans (BUF)vs DET

The talking head's advice is that Smith, Burress, and Evans are "must starts" while Colston and Berrian are also starters.

The question is which of the 2 will get the most points this week?

I'm leaning towards starting Evans and Berrian. Your thoughts please. Thanks

by Kal (not verified) :: Mon, 10/16/2006 - 2:47am

Boy, oh boy, was I wrong about Reggie Brown. Hope that Tom Kelso didn't listen to me about that one; he really looks like the real deal with respect to McNabb. At least when Stallworth is out.

by Sid (not verified) :: Tue, 10/17/2006 - 4:39am

Rex Grossman must've just set this season's Loser League low (or high).