Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

2018 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 1/7/19

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk
Alabama 14-1 13.8 (-0.2) 99.2% 29.0 1 47.3 2 17.9 13 -0.4 85
Clemson 15-0 14.0 (-1.0) 99.2% 28.6 2 42.4 4 13.2 2 -0.6 95
Georgia 11-3 11.5 (0.5) 98.2% 25.1 3 42.0 5 18.2 15 1.3 20
Oklahoma 12-2 11.7 (-0.3) 96.6% 22.0 4 52.5 1 31.5 89 1.0 32
Ohio State 13-1 10.9 (-2.1) 95.4% 20.4 5 42.6 3 23.0 34 0.8 38
Michigan 10-3 10.3 (0.3) 94.5% 19.3 6 34.1 24 15.7 6 0.9 36
Notre Dame 12-1 10.3 (-1.7) 94.2% 19.0 7 33.7 27 15.3 5 0.6 45
Central Florida 12-1 10.6 (-1.4) 92.7% 17.7 8 40.5 6 24.6 45 1.8 10
Fresno State 12-2 12.1 (0.1) 91.8% 16.9 9 33.3 30 15.7 7 -0.6 94
Washington 10-4 10.9 (0.9) 91.6% 16.8 10 33.0 31 14.2 3 -1.9 117
Appalachian State 11-2 11.0 (0.0) 91.4% 16.7 11 32.4 36 16.6 10 1.0 34
LSU 10-3 9.1 (-0.9) 90.9% 16.3 12 30.9 49 17.3 12 2.7 3
Florida 10-3 9.7 (-0.3) 90.7% 16.1 13 35.2 21 20.8 23 1.7 11
Penn State 9-4 9.7 (0.7) 90.3% 15.9 14 32.3 38 16.1 8 -0.3 77
Mississippi State 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 89.9% 15.6 15 30.9 50 14.3 4 -0.9 101
Utah 9-5 9.2 (0.2) 88.8% 15.0 16 31.0 48 19.0 20 3.0 1
Auburn 8-5 8.2 (0.2) 88.3% 14.6 17 32.5 35 18.5 17 0.7 43
Texas A&M 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 87.5% 14.2 18 36.6 16 23.5 36 1.1 28
Utah State 11-2 10.0 (-1.0) 87.4% 14.1 19 36.2 18 22.5 28 0.4 55
Missouri 8-5 9.3 (1.3) 86.8% 13.8 20 37.8 14 24.5 43 0.5 51
Wisconsin 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 84.5% 12.6 21 37.9 13 23.0 33 -2.3 125
Iowa 9-4 8.8 (-0.2) 81.8% 11.4 22 29.3 65 18.6 18 0.7 44
West Virginia 8-4 7.5 (-0.5) 81.2% 11.1 23 40.1 8 30.3 80 1.3 18
Memphis 8-6 9.6 (1.6) 79.9% 10.6 24 39.5 10 29.8 77 0.8 39
Miami-FL 7-6 8.8 (1.8) 79.7% 10.5 25 28.2 77 16.9 11 -0.8 97
Oklahoma State 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 79.7% 10.5 26 40.4 7 30.6 83 0.7 42
Boise State 10-3 8.9 (-1.1) 79.7% 10.5 27 36.2 19 23.7 39 -2.0 121
Stanford 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 79.4% 10.3 28 34.1 25 25.6 47 1.8 8
Washington State 11-2 9.7 (-1.3) 78.3% 9.9 29 38.1 11 28.0 67 -0.2 74
Texas 10-4 8.3 (-1.7) 74.1% 8.3 30 33.8 26 25.8 49 0.4 59
NC State 9-4 8.3 (-0.7) 73.4% 8.1 32 34.4 23 27.4 58 1.1 27
Cincinnati 11-2 9.6 (-1.4) 73.6% 8.2 31 29.7 59 21.2 24 -0.4 82
Michigan State 7-6 7.5 (0.5) 72.7% 7.9 33 20.2 117 12.6 1 0.3 61
North Texas 9-4 9.8 (0.8) 72.3% 7.7 34 32.0 41 26.7 52 2.4 5
Ohio 9-4 8.9 (-0.1) 72.0% 7.6 35 40.0 9 33.2 99 0.8 40
Syracuse 10-3 8.5 (-1.5) 70.7% 7.2 36 32.0 42 27.6 61 2.8 2
Virginia 8-5 8.9 (0.9) 70.3% 7.0 37 29.6 60 22.0 27 -0.6 93
South Carolina 7-6 5.8 (-1.2) 69.3% 6.7 38 32.4 37 27.6 62 2.0 7
USC 5-7 7.0 (2.0) 69.1% 6.6 39 30.1 55 24.0 41 0.5 50
Troy 10-3 8.8 (-1.2) 68.7% 6.5 40 28.4 75 23.7 38 1.8 9
Kentucky 10-3 7.8 (-2.2) 67.8% 6.2 41 26.0 92 19.8 22 -0.1 72
Texas Tech 5-7 6.2 (1.2) 67.3% 6.1 42 34.8 22 31.2 87 2.4 6
Marshall 9-4 9.2 (0.2) 66.9% 5.9 43 24.4 102 18.0 14 -0.5 88
UAB 11-3 10.1 (-0.9) 66.5% 5.8 44 27.2 85 21.4 25 0.0 68
Iowa State 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 64.8% 5.2 45 28.5 73 22.8 32 -0.4 83
BYU 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 64.7% 5.2 46 28.4 74 22.8 29 -0.4 86
Temple 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 64.4% 5.1 47 29.2 66 22.8 31 -1.3 106
Arkansas State 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 63.7% 4.9 48 31.8 43 26.1 51 -0.8 98
Minnesota 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 63.1% 4.7 49 27.4 83 23.6 37 1.0 31
Toledo 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 62.4% 4.5 50 36.5 17 33.1 98 1.1 26
Oregon 9-4 7.6 (-1.4) 62.2% 4.4 51 33.3 29 27.2 56 -1.7 111
Purdue 6-7 7.5 (1.5) 61.7% 4.3 52 36.1 20 31.8 94 0.0 67
San Diego State 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 60.9% 4.0 53 24.6 101 22.0 26 1.4 16
Houston 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 59.9% 3.8 54 37.4 15 34.2 104 0.6 47
Duke 8-5 6.8 (-1.2) 59.1% 3.5 55 29.8 56 25.8 48 -0.5 87
Nebraska 4-8 6.7 (2.7) 58.7% 3.4 56 31.7 45 27.9 65 -0.4 80
TCU 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 58.3% 3.3 57 23.8 108 18.8 19 -1.8 115
Buffalo 10-4 9.5 (-0.5) 58.1% 3.2 58 33.4 28 27.7 63 -2.5 126
Florida Atlantic 5-7 6.6 (1.6) 57.2% 3.0 59 32.7 34 28.0 66 -1.8 114
Arizona State 7-6 6.3 (-0.7) 56.9% 2.9 60 32.8 33 31.5 88 1.5 14
Miami-OH 6-6 5.9 (-0.1) 56.2% 2.7 61 27.9 78 26.7 54 1.5 12
Eastern Michigan 7-6 8.5 (1.5) 54.9% 2.3 62 27.7 80 23.9 40 -1.5 109
Georgia Southern 10-3 7.9 (-2.1) 54.5% 2.2 63 30.1 54 29.4 73 1.4 17
Wake Forest 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 53.6% 1.9 64 30.4 53 29.0 70 0.5 49
California 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 53.4% 1.9 65 17.3 122 16.6 9 1.2 25
Virginia Tech 6-7 5.7 (-0.3) 53.3% 1.8 66 31.8 44 30.4 81 0.4 57
Ole Miss 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 51.9% 1.4 68 37.9 12 35.4 107 -1.2 103
Middle Tennessee 8-6 8.3 (0.3) 51.9% 1.4 67 27.0 87 26.1 50 0.5 53
Pittsburgh 7-7 6.8 (-0.2) 51.4% 1.3 69 28.2 76 27.3 57 0.4 60
Boston College 7-5 6.2 (-0.8) 50.7% 1.1 70 25.8 95 22.8 30 -1.9 118
Maryland 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 49.8% 0.8 71 26.5 89 27.0 55 1.3 21
Southern Miss 6-5 6.2 (0.2) 49.5% 0.7 72 19.5 119 18.5 16 -0.3 76
Vanderbilt 6-7 7.1 (1.1) 48.8% 0.5 73 32.1 40 30.7 85 -0.9 100
Arizona 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 48.8% 0.5 74 30.8 51 30.5 82 0.3 63
Army 11-2 8.1 (-2.9) 48.3% 0.4 75 30.4 52 27.8 64 -2.2 123
Northern Illinois 8-6 7.4 (-0.6) 47.7% 0.2 76 20.6 114 19.3 21 -1.0 102
Wyoming 6-6 6.3 (0.3) 47.2% 0.1 77 24.2 105 24.6 44 0.4 56
South Florida 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 45.7% -0.4 78 29.5 62 29.4 74 -0.5 91
Northwestern 9-5 6.2 (-2.8) 43.3% -1.1 79 24.0 106 23.1 35 -2.0 120
Baylor 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 43.3% -1.1 80 31.6 46 31.8 92 -0.8 99
Nevada 8-5 6.5 (-1.5) 43.2% -1.1 81 27.1 86 28.3 69 0.1 66
Georgia Tech 7-6 5.8 (-1.2) 42.2% -1.4 82 32.1 39 34.7 106 1.2 24
Indiana 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 42.2% -1.4 83 28.7 71 30.6 84 0.4 54
Florida State 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 41.6% -1.6 84 23.5 110 24.3 42 -0.8 96
Florida International 9-4 7.4 (-1.6) 41.4% -1.7 85 29.6 61 31.8 93 0.6 46
Tulane 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 41.1% -1.7 86 24.7 100 27.4 59 0.9 35
UL-Lafayette 7-7 7.0 (0.0) 39.5% -2.2 87 32.8 32 36.5 111 1.5 15
Tennessee 5-7 4.3 (-0.7) 39.0% -2.4 88 29.5 64 32.9 96 1.0 30
Colorado 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 39.0% -2.4 89 26.2 91 28.0 68 -0.5 89
Louisiana Tech 8-5 7.1 (-0.9) 38.9% -2.4 90 24.2 104 24.8 46 -1.8 116
Air Force 5-7 6.1 (1.1) 38.6% -2.5 91 28.8 70 31.5 90 0.2 65
UCLA 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 35.2% -3.5 92 29.1 67 33.9 103 1.3 19
Kansas State 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 34.0% -3.9 93 25.5 96 29.2 71 -0.2 75
Arkansas 2-10 3.4 (1.4) 32.8% -4.3 94 25.3 97 30.1 78 0.5 52
North Carolina 2-9 3.8 (1.8) 32.4% -4.4 95 28.9 69 32.9 97 -0.5 90
SMU 5-7 4.9 (-0.1) 31.4% -4.8 96 24.3 103 29.4 72 0.3 62
UL-Monroe 6-6 5.4 (-0.6) 25.4% -6.8 97 28.6 72 33.4 101 -2.0 119
Western Michigan 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 22.7% -7.8 98 31.2 47 35.9 110 -3.1 130
Old Dominion 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 19.1% -9.2 99 27.3 84 37.3 114 0.7 41
Tulsa 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 18.0% -9.7 100 23.6 109 31.6 91 -1.7 113
Navy 3-10 3.4 (0.4) 17.8% -9.8 101 27.7 81 38.1 116 0.6 48
Hawaii 8-6 7.2 (-0.8) 16.5% -10.4 102 29.5 63 39.5 119 -0.4 81
Illinois 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 16.3% -10.5 103 27.8 79 39.9 122 1.5 13
New Mexico 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 13.9% -11.7 104 22.7 111 36.8 112 2.4 4
Texas State 3-9 6.1 (3.1) 13.6% -11.9 105 17.1 124 26.7 53 -2.2 124
Western Kentucky 3-9 4.2 (1.2) 13.5% -11.9 106 20.0 118 29.7 75 -2.2 122
Louisville 2-10 1.7 (-0.3) 11.4% -13.1 111 22.5 112 35.6 109 0.0 70
Colorado State 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 11.6% -13.0 107 26.2 90 38.0 115 -1.2 104
Kansas 3-9 2.8 (-0.2) 11.6% -13.0 108 20.4 115 33.4 102 0.0 71
UNLV 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 11.5% -13.0 109 29.7 57 39.9 121 -2.9 128
East Carolina 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 11.5% -13.1 110 19.2 120 33.2 100 1.0 33
Charlotte 5-7 3.6 (-1.4) 10.9% -13.4 112 17.5 121 30.9 86 0.0 69
Massachusetts 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 10.4% -13.7 113 29.0 68 41.0 125 -1.7 112
Coastal Carolina 5-7 3.5 (-1.5) 10.0% -14.0 114 29.7 58 44.1 128 0.4 58
South Alabama 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 8.7% -14.9 115 26.0 93 40.6 124 -0.3 78
Rutgers 1-11 1.8 (0.8) 7.7% -15.6 116 13.4 127 30.2 79 1.2 23
Ball State 4-8 3.1 (-0.9) 7.4% -15.9 117 24.0 107 38.7 117 -1.2 105
Liberty 6-6 4.4 (-1.6) 7.2% -16.0 118 26.9 88 39.9 120 -3.1 129
Akron 4-8 2.9 (-1.1) 6.6% -16.6 119 13.3 128 29.7 76 -0.2 73
Kent State 2-10 2.9 (0.9) 5.7% -17.4 120 22.0 113 38.8 118 -0.6 92
Central Michigan 1-11 2.3 (1.3) 5.5% -17.6 121 10.2 130 27.5 60 -0.3 79
Georgia State 2-10 2.8 (0.8) 5.4% -17.7 122 24.9 98 42.2 126 -0.4 84
New Mexico State 3-9 2.6 (-0.4) 5.2% -17.9 123 20.4 116 36.8 113 -1.4 108
Oregon State 2-10 1.8 (-0.2) 5.0% -18.2 124 27.6 82 44.5 129 -1.3 107
San Jose State 1-11 2.0 (1.0) 4.7% -18.6 125 16.6 125 35.4 108 0.2 64
UTSA 3-9 1.8 (-1.2) 4.4% -18.9 126 12.6 129 32.8 95 1.2 22
Bowling Green 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 3.8% -19.7 127 25.8 94 42.7 127 -2.8 127
UTEP 1-11 3.2 (2.2) 2.7% -21.4 128 14.7 126 34.5 105 -1.6 110
Rice 2-11 1.5 (-0.5) 2.3% -22.2 129 17.1 123 40.4 123 1.1 29
Connecticut 1-11 0.4 (-0.6) 1.0% -26.1 130 24.9 99 51.8 130 0.9 37