Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

2018 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 10/13/18

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Last Week Chg
Alabama 7-0 7.0 (0.0) 99.4% 27.0 1 46.7 2 19.5 17 -0.2 97 1 0
Clemson 6-0 5.4 (-0.6) 98.6% 23.7 2 39.9 10 16.2 5 0.0 66 2 0
Oklahoma 5-1 5.8 (0.8) 97.4% 21.1 3 50.6 1 29.8 77 0.2 35 6 3
Michigan 6-1 6.3 (0.3) 96.9% 20.4 4 34.7 27 14.6 1 0.3 16 5 1
Ohio State 7-0 5.8 (-1.2) 96.7% 20.0 5 44.1 4 24.3 41 0.3 20 4 -1
Georgia 6-1 5.9 (-0.1) 96.4% 19.7 6 40.6 6 21.2 25 0.3 13 3 -3
Penn State 4-2 4.8 (0.8) 94.5% 17.5 7 37.1 19 19.4 16 -0.2 98 7 0
Central Florida 6-0 5.6 (-0.4) 93.3% 16.5 8 40.0 9 23.7 37 0.1 43 9 1
Washington 5-2 5.8 (0.8) 93.2% 16.4 9 34.8 26 17.9 9 -0.4 123 10 1
Notre Dame 7-0 5.7 (-1.3) 93.0% 16.3 10 31.7 45 15.5 4 0.1 48 8 -2
Appalachian State 4-1 4.4 (0.4) 92.1% 15.6 11 37.0 21 21.5 28 0.0 61 12 1
Fresno State 5-1 5.5 (0.5) 90.3% 14.4 12 31.1 50 16.5 6 -0.2 101 20 8
Florida 6-1 5.7 (-0.3) 89.3% 13.8 13 33.0 33 19.6 18 0.4 10 14 1
LSU 6-1 5.0 (-1.0) 88.4% 13.3 14 31.7 43 18.9 13 0.5 3 19 5
Mississippi State 4-2 4.0 (0.0) 88.4% 13.3 15 31.4 47 17.9 10 -0.2 104 15 0
Wisconsin 4-2 4.1 (0.1) 88.2% 13.2 16 41.8 5 28.7 63 0.1 47 13 -3
Miami-FL 5-2 5.5 (0.5) 87.2% 12.7 17 30.3 55 17.5 8 -0.1 94 16 -1
Texas A&M 5-2 5.1 (0.1) 86.1% 12.2 18 33.4 31 21.4 27 0.2 34 17 -1
NC State 5-0 4.3 (-0.7) 85.3% 11.8 19 34.1 30 21.8 29 -0.4 124 22 3
Utah State 5-1 5.1 (0.1) 85.2% 11.7 20 38.2 15 26.7 51 0.3 17 25 5
Iowa 5-1 4.8 (-0.2) 84.1% 11.3 21 30.9 53 19.7 19 0.1 45 26 5
Kentucky 5-1 4.9 (-0.1) 84.0% 11.2 22 25.9 95 14.7 3 0.0 76 24 2
Auburn 4-3 4.7 (0.7) 83.9% 11.2 23 25.7 97 14.7 2 0.2 39 18 -5
West Virginia 5-1 4.8 (-0.2) 82.7% 10.6 24 40.2 7 29.5 73 0.0 72 11 -13
Oklahoma State 4-3 4.7 (0.7) 81.8% 10.3 25 38.2 14 28.2 59 0.3 19 21 -4
Utah 4-2 3.9 (-0.1) 81.5% 10.2 26 29.9 58 20.0 20 0.3 22 35 9
Memphis 4-3 5.2 (1.2) 80.3% 9.7 27 40.0 8 30.5 90 0.2 33 30 3
Houston 5-1 5.2 (0.2) 80.0% 9.6 28 37.6 18 28.2 60 0.1 53 29 1
Washington State 5-1 5.0 (0.0) 77.5% 8.7 29 38.2 13 29.5 74 0.0 60 33 4
USC 4-2 4.1 (0.1) 77.4% 8.7 30 29.4 64 20.9 22 0.2 23 37 7
Cincinnati 6-0 5.4 (-0.6) 77.0% 8.5 31 29.7 60 21.3 26 0.1 54 40 9
Duke 5-1 4.3 (-0.7) 76.6% 8.4 32 30.8 54 22.7 33 0.3 14 42 10
Michigan State 4-2 3.8 (-0.2) 76.2% 8.3 33 28.1 75 20.1 21 0.2 36 31 -2
Oregon 5-1 4.3 (-0.7) 75.7% 8.1 34 38.7 12 30.5 91 -0.1 77 34 0
Texas Tech 4-2 3.7 (-0.3) 74.5% 7.7 35 39.5 11 32.0 95 0.2 25 28 -7
Boise State 4-2 3.9 (-0.1) 74.5% 7.7 36 32.0 40 24.0 40 -0.3 114 32 -4
Missouri 3-3 3.6 (0.6) 74.3% 7.6 37 36.7 22 29.1 69 0.0 57 23 -14
Ole Miss 5-2 4.9 (-0.1) 73.9% 7.5 38 44.9 3 37.1 112 -0.3 117 39 1
Purdue 3-3 4.5 (1.5) 73.9% 7.5 39 37.8 17 30.3 84 0.0 69 48 9
Stanford 4-2 3.7 (-0.3) 73.7% 7.4 40 31.1 49 23.9 38 0.2 32 41 1
South Florida 6-0 4.9 (-1.1) 73.6% 7.4 41 32.6 36 24.9 44 -0.2 102 27 -14
North Texas 6-1 6.0 (0.0) 72.9% 7.2 42 32.1 39 25.4 46 0.5 4 50 8
Texas 6-1 4.4 (-1.6) 72.7% 7.1 43 29.5 63 22.4 32 -0.1 78 38 -5
Iowa State 3-3 3.4 (0.4) 72.0% 6.9 44 29.2 66 22.2 30 -0.1 79 45 1
Temple 4-3 5.1 (1.1) 71.6% 6.8 45 26.3 91 19.2 15 -0.4 118 49 4
TCU 3-3 3.4 (0.4) 71.4% 6.7 46 26.0 94 19.0 14 -0.3 106 36 -10
Boston College 5-2 4.3 (-0.7) 69.5% 6.1 47 29.9 57 23.9 39 0.1 46 51 4
Virginia 4-2 3.6 (-0.4) 67.4% 5.5 48 29.0 68 23.2 35 -0.3 111 43 -5
UAB 5-1 4.8 (-0.2) 63.9% 4.5 49 27.0 86 22.4 31 -0.1 89 59 10
Buffalo 6-1 5.4 (-0.6) 62.7% 4.2 50 29.0 67 24.5 42 -0.3 115 62 12
San Diego State 5-1 4.2 (-0.8) 62.5% 4.1 51 21.3 111 17.3 7 0.2 28 54 3
Colorado 5-1 3.7 (-1.3) 61.9% 4.0 52 31.7 44 27.6 52 -0.1 92 44 -8
Minnesota 3-3 3.0 (0.0) 61.6% 3.9 53 24.6 103 21.0 23 0.3 15 57 4
South Carolina 3-3 2.4 (-0.6) 59.7% 3.4 54 28.7 71 25.7 49 0.4 7 46 -8
Maryland 4-2 3.3 (-0.7) 58.9% 3.2 55 28.2 74 25.4 45 0.4 9 68 13
Virginia Tech 4-2 3.4 (-0.6) 58.9% 3.1 56 31.8 42 29.0 67 0.3 11 47 -9
Arizona State 3-3 3.0 (0.0) 58.3% 3.0 57 32.9 34 30.4 88 0.5 5 52 -5
Syracuse 4-2 3.8 (-0.2) 57.0% 2.6 58 30.1 56 28.1 57 0.6 1 60 2
Baylor 4-3 4.4 (0.4) 55.2% 2.2 59 34.4 29 32.4 99 0.2 31 64 5
Marshall 4-2 3.8 (-0.2) 53.7% 1.8 60 25.1 102 23.2 36 -0.1 86 74 14
Georgia Tech 3-4 3.8 (0.8) 52.2% 1.4 61 35.4 24 33.8 103 -0.2 105 56 -5
Troy 5-2 5.0 (0.0) 51.3% 1.1 62 31.3 48 30.2 83 0.0 58 66 4
Florida Atlantic 3-3 3.3 (0.3) 49.8% 0.7 63 35.2 25 34.5 106 0.0 67 63 0
Indiana 4-3 3.6 (-0.4) 49.5% 0.7 64 26.9 88 26.2 50 0.0 65 55 -9
California 3-3 3.9 (0.9) 48.7% 0.5 65 19.2 119 18.9 12 0.2 40 53 -12
Miami-OH 3-4 3.7 (0.7) 48.0% 0.3 66 25.8 96 25.6 48 0.1 50 79 13
Tennessee 3-3 2.3 (-0.7) 47.7% 0.2 67 32.2 38 32.3 97 0.3 12 61 -6
Northwestern 3-3 2.3 (-0.7) 46.7% -0.1 68 25.2 99 24.9 43 -0.4 120 58 -10
Nebraska 0-6 2.8 (2.8) 45.1% -0.5 69 29.7 61 29.9 79 -0.3 110 71 2
Eastern Michigan 3-4 3.3 (0.3) 44.1% -0.8 70 28.7 70 29.4 72 -0.1 81 82 12
Louisiana Tech 4-2 2.9 (-1.1) 43.9% -0.8 71 28.9 69 29.6 75 -0.1 95 90 19
Arkansas 1-6 2.2 (1.2) 43.9% -0.8 72 29.2 65 30.1 81 0.0 64 67 -5
Florida State 3-3 2.3 (-0.7) 43.0% -1.1 73 20.3 116 21.2 24 -0.2 96 69 -4
Georgia Southern 5-1 3.9 (-1.1) 42.6% -1.2 74 27.7 79 29.1 68 0.3 21 65 -9
Army 4-2 3.0 (-1.0) 41.3% -1.5 75 32.9 35 33.9 104 -0.5 127 83 8
UCLA 1-5 1.6 (0.6) 41.0% -1.6 76 27.3 83 29.2 71 0.3 18 85 9
BYU 4-3 3.6 (-0.4) 40.7% -1.7 77 26.4 90 28.0 56 -0.1 83 86 9
Southern Miss 2-3 2.6 (0.6) 39.3% -2.1 78 21.0 114 23.0 34 0.0 73 72 -6
Northern Illinois 4-3 3.2 (-0.8) 39.0% -2.1 79 17.1 122 18.9 11 -0.3 113 84 5
Western Michigan 5-2 4.2 (-0.8) 37.5% -2.6 80 32.4 37 34.4 105 -0.6 129 77 -3
Vanderbilt 3-4 3.3 (0.3) 37.0% -2.7 81 27.9 78 30.4 87 -0.2 99 75 -6
Pittsburgh 3-4 2.9 (-0.1) 37.0% -2.7 82 28.0 77 30.5 89 -0.2 103 73 -9
Tulane 2-4 2.4 (0.4) 36.1% -2.9 83 25.5 98 28.9 66 0.5 6 80 -3
Toledo 3-3 2.5 (-0.5) 35.0% -3.3 84 35.6 23 39.0 116 0.1 49 76 -8
New Mexico 3-3 4.0 (1.0) 33.9% -3.5 85 31.0 52 35.1 108 0.5 2 78 -7
Arkansas State 3-3 2.6 (-0.4) 33.9% -3.5 86 25.1 101 28.7 64 0.0 62 81 -5
Arizona 3-4 2.2 (-0.8) 33.8% -3.6 87 26.7 89 30.0 80 -0.3 109 70 -17
Kansas State 3-4 3.3 (0.3) 32.8% -3.9 88 26.0 93 29.7 76 -0.2 100 97 9
Wake Forest 3-3 2.9 (-0.1) 32.2% -4.1 89 28.0 76 32.0 94 -0.1 85 89 0
North Carolina 1-4 1.8 (0.8) 32.1% -4.1 90 23.4 107 27.7 53 0.2 30 98 8
Middle Tennessee 3-3 3.1 (0.1) 31.4% -4.3 91 24.1 106 28.3 61 -0.1 80 96 5
Nevada 3-4 3.2 (0.2) 30.6% -4.5 92 27.3 84 31.7 93 -0.1 93 91 -1
Tulsa 1-5 2.1 (1.1) 30.1% -4.7 93 24.5 104 29.2 70 0.0 71 93 0
Ohio 3-3 2.6 (-0.4) 29.8% -4.8 94 37.1 20 42.1 126 0.2 27 94 0
Florida International 4-2 2.9 (-1.1) 28.6% -5.1 95 27.1 85 32.4 98 0.1 44 87 -8
UL-Lafayette 3-3 3.4 (0.4) 27.3% -5.5 96 37.9 16 43.2 127 -0.3 108 103 7
Hawaii 6-2 5.6 (-0.4) 23.3% -6.8 97 33.2 32 39.9 121 -0.1 88 92 -5
Louisville 2-5 1.7 (-0.3) 23.2% -6.9 98 23.3 109 30.4 86 0.2 26 99 1
Wyoming 2-5 2.1 (0.1) 21.6% -7.4 99 21.0 113 28.6 62 0.2 41 88 -11
Air Force 2-4 2.2 (0.2) 21.0% -7.7 100 20.2 117 27.7 54 -0.1 87 101 1
Navy 2-4 2.1 (0.1) 19.8% -8.1 101 29.9 59 37.9 113 0.0 70 95 -6
Illinois 3-3 2.5 (-0.5) 18.3% -8.7 102 27.6 80 36.4 111 0.1 42 100 -2
Kansas 2-4 2.2 (0.2) 17.9% -8.8 103 21.2 112 29.9 78 -0.1 91 104 1
Coastal Carolina 3-3 2.5 (-0.5) 16.3% -9.5 104 34.5 28 44.2 128 0.2 29 102 -2
SMU 2-4 1.2 (-0.8) 16.2% -9.5 105 23.3 108 33.0 101 0.2 38 105 0
UNLV 2-4 2.2 (0.2) 15.1% -10.0 106 28.6 73 38.1 114 -0.5 126 107 1
Colorado State 3-4 2.3 (-0.7) 15.0% -10.0 107 26.2 92 36.1 109 -0.1 90 113 6
Liberty 3-3 1.9 (-1.1) 14.3% -10.4 108 29.7 62 39.4 118 -0.7 130 114 6
Massachusetts 2-5 2.1 (0.1) 14.2% -10.4 109 31.9 41 42.0 125 -0.3 116 108 -1
Western Kentucky 1-5 2.3 (1.3) 12.9% -11.1 110 19.8 118 30.3 85 -0.5 125 106 -4
Ball State 3-4 2.4 (-0.6) 12.5% -11.2 111 20.9 115 32.0 96 -0.1 84 109 -2
Oregon State 1-5 1.6 (0.6) 12.4% -11.3 112 31.0 51 42.0 124 -0.4 121 111 -1
South Alabama 2-5 2.2 (0.2) 12.4% -11.3 113 27.0 87 38.6 115 0.2 24 115 2
East Carolina 2-4 2.1 (0.1) 11.6% -11.7 114 16.9 123 28.8 65 0.1 51 112 -2
Texas State 1-5 3.1 (2.1) 11.3% -11.9 115 16.2 125 27.8 55 -0.3 112 124 9
Old Dominion 1-6 2.1 (1.1) 11.2% -11.9 116 27.6 82 39.5 120 0.0 68 110 -6
UL-Monroe 3-4 2.1 (-0.9) 10.8% -12.2 117 28.6 72 40.4 123 -0.4 119 122 5
Central Michigan 1-6 1.7 (0.7) 10.7% -12.2 118 13.2 129 25.5 47 0.1 55 117 -1
Akron 2-3 1.3 (-0.7) 9.1% -13.2 119 14.8 128 28.1 58 0.1 52 116 -3
Georgia State 2-4 1.9 (-0.1) 8.1% -13.9 120 25.1 100 39.1 117 0.1 56 120 0
Charlotte 3-3 2.2 (-0.8) 8.0% -13.9 121 19.0 120 32.9 100 0.0 63 127 6
New Mexico State 2-5 1.4 (-0.6) 6.7% -14.9 122 21.3 110 36.1 110 0.0 74 118 -4
Kent State 1-6 1.7 (0.7) 5.8% -15.7 123 24.5 105 40.2 122 0.0 75 121 -2
Rutgers 1-6 1.4 (0.4) 5.5% -15.9 124 15.2 127 31.6 92 0.4 8 119 -5
UTSA 3-4 1.5 (-1.5) 4.0% -17.5 125 12.4 130 30.1 82 0.2 37 125 0
San Jose State 0-6 0.9 (0.9) 3.6% -18.1 126 17.1 121 34.7 107 -0.4 122 123 -3
UTEP 0-6 1.8 (1.8) 3.5% -18.1 127 15.6 126 33.7 102 -0.1 82 126 -1
Bowling Green 1-6 0.8 (-0.2) 3.1% -18.8 128 31.6 46 49.8 129 -0.5 128 128 0
Rice 1-6 0.4 (-0.6) 1.2% -22.8 129 16.6 124 39.5 119 0.0 59 129 0
Connecticut 1-5 0.2 (-0.8) 0.8% -24.6 130 27.6 81 51.9 130 -0.3 107 130 0