Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 07/19/18

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds simulation for Football Outsiders Almanac 2018 plays out the season one million times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers DVOA projections of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) There are 1,000 different sets of DVOA projections, each of which is run for 1,000 simulations. The system is further explained in Football Outsiders Almanac 2018.

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIII
1 PIT 13.8% 6 GB 5.6% 11 HOU 2.6%
2 NE 13.4% 7 MIN 5.2% 12 SEA 2.5%
3 NO 7.9% 8 DAL 5.1% 13 IND 2.3%
4 LAR 7.2% 9 BAL 3.1% 14 TEN 2.0%
5 PHI 5.7% 10 ATL 2.6% 15 OAK 2.0%