Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, through Week 17

Revised as of 3/27/2015

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2014, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST YEAR represents 2013 rank.

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
YEAR 		NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
1 SEA 31.9% 1 27.3% 12-4 16.8% 5 -16.8% 1 -1.7% 19
2 DEN 29.5% 2 29.4% 12-4 20.0% 3 -13.2% 4 -3.7% 27
3 GB 23.3% 20 23.0% 12-4 24.7% 1 -1.0% 16 -2.3% 22
4 NE 22.1% 5 20.1% 12-4 13.5% 6 -3.0% 12 5.7% 5
5 BAL 21.9% 23 25.7% 10-6 9.4% 9 -4.6% 8 8.0% 2
6 DAL 13.7% 17 16.3% 12-4 16.8% 4 4.0% 22 0.9% 13
7 PHI 12.8% 8 10.3% 10-6 1.1% 13 -3.3% 10 8.3% 1
8 PIT 12.1% 15 13.3% 11-5 22.5% 2 11.3% 30 0.9% 12
9 BUF 10.5% 18 10.0% 9-7 -11.2% 26 -15.5% 2 6.2% 4
10 KC 10.4% 6 9.4% 9-7 5.0% 12 1.3% 19 6.7% 3
11 SF 6.6% 7 1.2% 8-8 -0.4% 16 -10.1% 5 -3.0% 24
12 CIN 5.0% 9 3.9% 10-5-1 -1.4% 18 -2.3% 14 4.2% 6
13 IND 4.5% 13 7.0% 11-5 -1.1% 17 -2.3% 13 3.3% 8
14 DET 4.4% 16 9.1% 11-5 -3.8% 19 -13.9% 3 -5.7% 31
15 MIA 3.5% 22 6.8% 8-8 10.1% 8 0.5% 17 -6.1% 32
16 SD -0.6% 12 -0.3% 9-7 7.0% 11 4.9% 25 -2.7% 23
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		LAST
YEAR 		NON-ADJ
TOT VOA 		W-L OFFENSE
DVOA 		OFF.
RANK 		DEFENSE
DVOA 		DEF.
RANK 		S.T.
DVOA 		S.T.
RANK
17 NO -0.9% 4 -1.7% 7-9 10.6% 7 13.1% 31 1.6% 11
18 STL -3.8% 14 -5.1% 6-10 -11.1% 25 -3.8% 9 3.5% 7
19 HOU -4.5% 30 3.5% 9-7 -6.8% 21 -6.2% 6 -3.9% 28
20 ATL -5.4% 25 -3.0% 6-10 7.2% 10 15.7% 32 3.0% 9
21 NYG -5.8% 27 -9.7% 6-10 -0.3% 15 4.9% 24 -0.6% 15
22 ARI -6.4% 10 -7.5% 11-5 -9.3% 23 -5.0% 7 -2.2% 21
23 CLE -6.7% 28 -5.0% 7-9 -10.2% 24 -3.0% 11 0.4% 14
24 CAR -8.5% 3 -9.4% 7-8-1 -4.7% 20 -1.7% 15 -5.5% 30
25 MIN -8.7% 26 -6.7% 7-9 -7.4% 22 4.3% 23 3.0% 10
26 CHI -13.8% 11 -18.7% 5-11 -0.1% 14 10.6% 28 -3.1% 25
27 NYJ -15.5% 24 -18.6% 4-12 -11.2% 27 3.5% 21 -0.8% 16
28 WAS -27.0% 29 -26.3% 4-12 -11.8% 28 9.9% 27 -5.4% 29
29 OAK -27.4% 31 -35.6% 3-13 -19.4% 30 6.3% 26 -1.7% 18
30 TB -28.3% 19 -24.4% 2-14 -26.3% 32 1.1% 18 -0.8% 17
31 TEN -29.3% 21 -25.8% 2-14 -16.4% 29 11.2% 29 -1.8% 20
32 JAC -29.5% 32 -26.0% 3-13 -24.3% 31 1.5% 20 -3.6% 26
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
  • WEIGHTED DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
  • 2014 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).
  • PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK 2014
SCHED 		RANK PYTH
WINS 		RANK VAR. RANK
1 SEA 31.9% 12-4 12.7 2 33.1% 1 0.8% 13 11.9 1 13.5% 10
2 DEN 29.5% 12-4 13.3 1 23.9% 4 1.5% 12 11.0 4 8.7% 4
3 GB 23.3% 12-4 10.8 5 24.1% 3 -0.9% 16 11.2 3 13.1% 9
4 NE 22.1% 12-4 10.8 4 31.4% 2 1.5% 11 11.8 2 16.7% 18
5 BAL 21.9% 10-6 11.5 3 22.4% 5 -4.9% 30 10.9 5 9.1% 5
6 DAL 13.7% 12-4 10.3 6 20.7% 6 -5.3% 31 10.8 6 20.7% 28
7 PHI 12.8% 10-6 9.7 7 16.7% 7 -3.4% 28 9.7 10 14.9% 13
8 PIT 12.1% 11-5 9.4 9 14.9% 8 -4.2% 29 9.7 11 14.3% 12
9 BUF 10.5% 9-7 9.0 10 14.4% 9 1.6% 10 9.6 12 9.3% 6
10 KC 10.4% 9-7 9.4 8 12.0% 10 2.2% 7 10.1 8 20.4% 26
11 SF 6.6% 8-8 9.0 11 8.4% 11 2.1% 8 7.0 24 15.7% 16
12 CIN 5.0% 10-5-1 9.0 12 1.2% 15 0.3% 15 8.6 14 22.6% 31
13 IND 4.5% 11-5 8.8 13 1.6% 14 -3.1% 26 10.2 7 17.8% 22
14 DET 4.4% 11-5 8.7 15 0.8% 17 -2.1% 23 9.2 13 7.0% 2
15 MIA 3.5% 8-8 8.8 14 0.9% 16 2.7% 5 8.4 15 17.4% 21
16 SD -0.6% 9-7 8.0 16 -3.2% 20 4.2% 4 8.0 17 15.5% 14
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA 		W-L ESTIM.
WINS 		RANK WEIGHTED
DVOA 		RANK 2014
SCHED 		RANK PYTH
WINS 		RANK VAR. RANK
17 NO -0.9% 7-9 7.6 17 -1.5% 18 -1.7% 20 7.4 20 20.5% 27
18 STL -3.8% 6-10 6.1 26 3.5% 12 2.0% 9 7.1 21 26.8% 32
19 HOU -4.5% 9-7 6.7 24 1.7% 13 -6.2% 32 9.8 9 6.7% 1
20 ATL -5.4% 6-10 7.2 20 -10.1% 25 -3.1% 27 7.1 22 14.1% 11
21 NYG -5.8% 6-10 7.0 23 -6.5% 22 -2.0% 22 7.5 18 16.9% 19
22 ARI -6.4% 11-5 7.4 19 -8.8% 23 4.6% 2 8.3 16 8.6% 3
23 CLE -6.7% 7-9 7.2 22 -9.6% 24 -2.6% 25 6.9 25 18.0% 23
24 CAR -8.5% 7-8-1 7.4 18 -6.4% 21 0.8% 14 7.0 23 15.5% 15
25 MIN -8.7% 7-9 7.2 21 -1.9% 19 -1.6% 18 7.5 19 11.6% 8
26 CHI -13.8% 5-11 6.4 25 -23.7% 29 2.2% 6 4.9 26 10.2% 7
27 NYJ -15.5% 4-12 5.9 27 -11.0% 26 4.5% 3 4.8 27 17.2% 20
28 WAS -27.0% 4-12 4.4 29 -39.6% 32 -1.6% 19 4.5 28 22.4% 30
29 OAK -27.4% 3-13 4.8 28 -28.6% 30 7.3% 1 3.1 32 19.7% 25
30 TB -28.3% 2-14 4.1 30 -23.1% 28 -1.4% 17 4.4 29 22.0% 29
31 TEN -29.3% 2-14 4.0 31 -35.2% 31 -2.4% 24 3.3 31 18.7% 24
32 JAC -29.5% 3-13 3.3 32 -22.1% 27 -1.9% 21 3.6 30 15.9% 17