2010 NFL Draft Report Card Report

Guest Column by Abe van der Bent

In his NFL draft review column, Rob Rang of CBS Sports comes up with an analogy for grading the NFL draft mere minutes after its completion that I have not heard before:

"Grading a draft immediately after it concludes is akin to giving your compliments to the chef before the meal has been served. Sure, the food might sound good (or bad) based on the ingredients listed on the menu, but the true review can’t be done until after the product has been tested."

Of course, Rang, like many other local and national sportswriters, spends the rest of his article doing exactly that: grading the draft for each team. For the seventh straight year, Football Outsiders has gathered the NFL draft grades from a selection of writers and draft experts in order to find out which drafts came out on top and which drafts caused the most disagreement. These rankings are not what FO thinks of the draft (we like to wait six years before evaluating a draft class), but merely a collection of the popular opinions about how this year’s draft went for each team.

(If you want to look back to the past, check out our past Report Card Reports: 2009, 2008, 2006, 2005, and 2004.)

This year, 15 draft graders were considered:

• Mel Kiper, ESPN (Insider required)
• Scouts Inc./ESPN Stats and Information (Insider Required)
• NFL.com Fan Balloting
• Daniel Wolf, Bleacher Report
• Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
• Rob Rang, CBS Sports/NFLDraftScout.com
• Rick Gosselin, Dallas Morning News
• Chris Burke, AOL Fanhouse
• John Czarnecki, FOX Sports
• Clifton Brown, Sporting News
• John McClain, Houston Chronicle (AFC) (NFC)
• Jarrett Bell, USA Today
• Nolan Nawrocki, Pro Football Weekly (AFC) (NFC)
• Gregg Rosenthal & Evan Silva, NBC Sports
• Wes Bunting, National Football Post

While most of these articles used a standard A/B/C/D grading system, Scouts Inc. took a different approach this year. With the help of ESPN Stats and Information, they created an "objective" formula (explained here, ESPN Insider required) incorporating team needs, draft pick value (based on Scouts Inc.’s player ranking), and trade value (a subjective point total ranging from +5 to -5) to rank each team. The lower the score, the better the draft. Since there were no letter grades assigned, I calculated the average score, gave that score a B- grade (the average draft grade for this year), and assigned the rest of the grades accordingly (admittedly, the method for doing so was not remotely scientific). For every article, each letter grade was converted to a grade point average (4.333 for an A+, 4.0 for an A, 3.667 for an A-, etc.), and the average GPA for each team was calculated to determine which drafts were considered the best or worst. Standard deviation was also calculated for each team to determine which drafts had the most disagreement among the chosen writers.

Highest Draft Grades

5. New England Patriots

GPA: 3.422
Highest Grade: A (Wolf, Gosselin, McClain, Nawrocki)
Lowest Grade: B- (Mel Kiper)
Comments: Once again, Bill Belichick shuffled his picks around and ended up with an extra pick, acquiring Carolina’s second-round pick in 2011. And the Patriots' actual draft picks drew positive reviews as well. McClain believes "McCourty and Gronkowski could start" in 2010, while Gosselin believes the picks of Rob Gronkowski, Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes made their second round the best in the draft. Wolf offers the most succinct analysis of the Patriots draft: "Does there really need to be any analysis of these picks? Bill Belichick is a draft master. Period."

4. Oakland Raiders

GPA: 3.422
Highest Grade: A+ (John Czarnecki)
Lowest Grade: C+ (Mel Kiper, Scouts Inc.)
Comments: Surprised? I guess this is what happens when you make value picks in the eyes of the graders. Czarnecki applauded the Raiders for going "against his size and speed measurements and simply took a quality football player in MLB Rolando McClain." The Raiders also acquired Jason Campbell for a fourth-round pick in the 2012 draft, which is enough in the minds of Rosenthal and Silva to earn an A grade from them. The Rosenthal/Silva combo also noted that, while the Raiders took size/speed guys Bruce Campbell and Jacoby Ford (dubbed by them as "Underwear Olympic Champions"), they were taken in the fourth round, rather than the first, which they felt was the "right place to gamble."

3. San Francisco 49ers

GPA: 3.467
Highest Grade: A (Wolf, Burke, Czarnecki, Nawrocki)
Lowest Grade: C+ (Wes Bunting)
Comments: Czarnecki believes that Anthony Davis "will be given every chance to every chance to start at right tackle" while fellow first-round pick Mike Iupati is a "tremendous run blocker with a nasty streak." Nawrocki also loved the 49ers early picks, noting that the 'Niners have now established a "new core in the trenches." Czarnecki is cautiously optimistic about Taylor Mays: "He didn’t track the deep ball very well and missed so many interception opportunities. But Mays can run and tackle and should be a good fit." Wolf summarized his grade by calling their draft "a taste of the Niners’ next step to taking over the NFC West." One roadblock in their path: Alex Smith will remain behind center in 2010, albeit with some new faces around him.

2. Baltimore Ravens

GPA: 3.622
Highest Grade: A (Kiper, Wolf, Prisco, Burke, Nawrocki, Rosenthal/Silva, Bunting)
Lowest Grade: B- (Rob Rang)
Comments: The Ravens also tend to trade down and look for value in the later rounds, and did so successfully in the eyes of this year’s graders. The picks of Sergio Kindle and Terrence Cody "made their defense scarier" according to Wolf, while McClain called Kindle "a bookend pass rusher to Terrell Suggs." Bunting cautions readers to keep an eye on Arthur Jones, while also adding: "Not only did the Ravens add elite talent without having a first-round pick, they also filled some major needs while getting impressive value."

1. Seattle Seahawks

GPA: 3.911
Highest Grade: A+ (Czarnecki, Brown, Bell, Nawrocki)
Lowest Grade: B+ (Prisco, Rosenthal/Silva, Bunting)
Comments: Not only did the Seahawks have the highest overall grade by far, they had the lowest standard deviation of any team in the draft, as they achieved the top grade on 10 of 15 grader’s lists. Kiper believes that the Pete Carroll "came out of the gates with a bang. Impact players early, value later," while Gosselin compares Carroll’s draft day strategy to "a young Jimmy Johnson." It's a bit early for that, but Carroll certainly acquired talent. Czarnecki called Earl Thomas "a great playmaker," while Rang had Russell Okung as the top-rated offensive tackle on his board. Even relative critics Rosenthal and Silva had positive things to say, adding that Thomas and second-round pick Golden Tate "are game-changing talents and massive upgrades over Jamar Adams and Deion Branch."

Lowest Draft Grades

5. Indianapolis Colts

GPA:2.378
Highest Grade: A- (Gregg Rosenthal & Evan Silva)
Lowest Grade: C- (Scouts Inc.)
Comments: For the most part, graders didn’t see anything noteworthy about the Colts' draft. Kiper described their draft as "nothing flashy, just [Jerry] Hughes then depth picks on a roster with little room to add," while McClain bemoans the fact that "they didn’t get the help they needed on the offensive line." Nawrocki didn’t like the picks after Hughes either, citing "injury concerns being overlooked on Kevin Thomas (third round) and Brody Eldridge (fifth round)," which "could set [the team] back in years to come."

4. Buffalo Bills

GPA:2.356
Highest Grade: B+ (Nolan Nawrocki)
Lowest Grade: D+ (Gregg Rosenthal & Evan Silva)
Comments: Bunting asks the question that many graders had: "Who’s going to play quarterback and left tackle for this team?" Rosenthal and Silva are even harsher in their assessment: "Buffalo has long-running problems in their scouting department, and this draft didn’t change that image." Of the players the Bills did take at those positions, Bunting says Levi Brown "lacks the arm to spin the football through the winds of Buffalo" and Ed Wang "is nowhere near NFL-ready."

3. Washington Redskins

GPA:2.156
Highest Grade: A- (Scouts Inc.)
Lowest Grade: D (Rick Gosselin)
Comments: Gosselin graded the Redskins down for their lack of early picks: "One pick in the first three rounds is the prescription for disaster on draft day." Both Kiper and Czarnecki downgraded the team for only receiving a fourth-round pick in 2012 for Jason Campbell. Rosenthal and Silva weren’t exactly excited about their later picks either, calling Dennis Morris "a product of Louisiana Tech’s spread system" and writing that Terrence Austin "isn’t going to help on offense."

2. Chicago Bears

GPA:2.156
Highest Grade: B (Mel Kiper, Rob Rang)
Lowest Grade: D (John McClain)
Comments: The Bears, like the Redskins, had to overcome a lack of early picks after trading for Jay Cutler and the late Gaines Adams. Brown notes that the Bears "mortgaged much of their future last season to get QB Jay Cutler and still don’t know if that decision will work out." As for the players they did draft, Rosenthal and Silva thought that they "could’ve used their later-round picks more wisely," specifically adding that Dan LeFevour "just doesn’t have arm strength for deep throws, which is a huge detriment to his chances in a vertical scheme like Mike Martz’s."

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

GPA:1.667
Highest Grade: B (Wes Bunting)
Lowest Grade: F (Daniel Wolf)
Comments: This grade might as well be called "You reached for Tyson Alualu!" with 10 of the 15 graders placing Jacksonville as the bottom of their list. Kiper describes the general consensus people had about the Alualu pick the best: "To take a guy you could conceivably get 15 to 25 slots later, you’re cheating yourself not just out of sixth- and seventh-round guys, but potentially a late second- or third-rounder. You have to know not just the pick, but the relative value." Wolf holds no punches: "For a team that needs to fill seats, they certainly didn’t draft that way." Brown adds: "Imagine the outrage in Jacksonville if Alualu flops and hometown boy Tebow becomes a star."

Greatest Variation in Draft Grades

5. Miami Dolphins

GPA:2.889
Standard Deviation: 0.686
Highest Grade: A (Chris Burke, John Czarnecki)
Lowest Grade: C- (Mel Kiper)
Comments: Prisco called Koa Misi "perfect for the Miami defense" and wrote that Reshad Jones "has good range in the secondary." Burke also loved the Jones pick, calling him a "top-50 talent," while Czarnecki added that John Jerry will likely be moved to guard "where his powerful leverage and quickness should be better suited." Kiper was a little harsher in his critique. He felt their draft was "Jared Odrick and the rest," adding that Misi "could be good, but not right away because he’ll need to spend a little time transitioning from defensive end to outside linebacker."

4. Kansas City Chiefs

GPA:2.911
Standard Deviation: 0.707
Highest Grade: A+ (Rick Gosselin)
Lowest Grade: C- (Pete Prisco)
Comments: Gosselin was in love with the Chiefs draft class, calling first-round pick Eric Berry "the NFL defensive rookie of the year" and Javier Arenas "the best returner in the draft." Brown called Dexter McCluster "a steal" and a "small but elusive playmaker who can catch it, run it and return it." Prisco, on the other hand, doesn’t question Berry’s talent, but the position he plays: "Taking a safety fifth overall is always a risk ... He’s good, but safety isn’t a value position." Even his best pick section has a dig at a player, as he states that Tony Moeaki "has a ton of talent, but never lived up to it at Iowa."

3. Denver Broncos

GPA:2.578
Standard Deviation: 0.781
Highest Grade: A (Rick Gosselin)
Lowest Grade: C- (Kiper, Prisco, Bell)
Comments: The standard deviation here can be explained by two words: Tim Tebow. Bell said of Tebow: "[His] track record as a winner did little to establish him as a can't-miss prospect." Prisco adds: "They better hope Tebow becomes a star. If not, this draft will be known as a disaster." Kiper’s grade had less to do with Tebow the player and more to do with what Denver did to get him: "The three picks (net two picks) for Tim Tebow was a serious leap of faith for a guy who's not as ready to play in the NFL as several other quarterbacks drafted behind him. I respect Denver's conviction, but its sense of draft board value has to be called into serious question." On the other end of the spectrum, Gosselin liked Denver's third round. According to him, J.D. Walton "can do at center for Josh McDaniels' Broncos what Tom Nalen did for Mike Shanahan's Broncos," while Eric Decker "will remind the Denver faithful of Ed McCaffrey." I’m sure Broncos fans will be thrilled if either player comes close to fulfilling Gosselin’s strong praise.

2. Carolina Panthers

GPA:2.778
Standard Deviation: 0.823
Highest Grade: A+ (John Czarnecki)
Lowest Grade: C- (Burke, Bell, Rosenthal/Silva)
Comments: The main problem that Bell and the Rosenthal/Silva tag team had with Carolina’s draft centered on the trading of a 2011 second-round pick to New England for its third-round pick, which was used on Armanti Edwards, a quarterback in college who will likely be moved to wide receiver in the NFL. Rosenthal and Silva called the trade "completely ill-advised," adding that Edwards was a projected seventh-rounder on their board. The duo also had harsh words for Eric Norwood, whom they called "an odd fit in Carolina's 4-3 defense"; and sixth-round pick David Gettis, referred to as "practice squad material." Czarnecki, on the other hand, lauded GM Marty Hurney, saying that this draft "has a chance to be his best." He notes that the Panthers tried to trade up with the Rams in order to select Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen, but got him anyway. He was also higher on Edwards and Norwood, calling Edwards a "potential playmaker" and Norwood a "good value" in the fourth round.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

GPA:1.667
Standard Deviation: 0.891
Highest Grade: B (Wes Bunting)
Lowest Grade: F (Daniel Wolf)
Comments: We’ve already gone over the negatives of the Jacksonville, so, to paraphrase the Hold Steady, we’ll just try and stay positive here. Bunting was the highest on Jacksonville, noting that the Jaguars "not only added a lot of talent to their defensive front seven but also gave themselves plenty of versatility." He also called sixth-round pick Deji Karim "a perfect fit in the Jacksonville run game." Rosenthal and Silva liked the selection of Kirk Morrison from Oakland for a fifth-round pick, calling it a "smart way to bolster a shaky linebacker group." They also had some kinder things to say about GM Gene Smith than most: "He had a very unique draft board and made some shocking moves and picks last year. He nailed the '09 draft. That he thinks differently than the rest of the league may be an asset."

Overall Grades

Here's a breakdown of how each team was graded:

As I mentioned in the introduction, the average grade for all graders is about a B- (or, in Dr. Z terms, a B-/B). Houston and Minnesota were the only teams to appear on the top of one grader’s list while appearing at the bottom of another’s. Also, among the six graders to give the Green Bay Packers a B is NFL.com’s compilation of fan ballots, which is surprising, considering that grade is, by its nature, an average of all fan ballots submitted. This could be a coincidence, or it could be a sign that Packers fans decided to give Ted Thompson the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the draft (as a Packer fan and Ted Thompson apologist since his tenure as GM began, I’m inclined to believe the latter). For a more detailed breakdown of each team’s grades, click here.

Grading the Graders

Just for fun, let’s check out a breakdown of each grader:

Nawrocki is the easiest grader with a B average (likely because of PFW’s draft grade model), and Bell is the stingiest with a C+ average. As you might expect, the NFL.com fan balloting had the most consistent grading, with 27 of 32 teams grading between a B+ and a B-. On the other end of the spectrum, Daniel Wolf had the widest variety in his grading, with a standard deviation of almost a full letter grade. Wolf does have one outlier (the F to Jacksonville, next closest grade is a C), although the eight As also played a part in the result. If Wolf had been a professor at my school while I was in college, I definitely would have made sure I got in his class. Avoid Tyson Alualu, and you've got a passing grade.

University of Minnesota graduate Abe van der Bent has earned the title "Deputy Assistant Emperor of the FO Master Player Database" for his extensive work as a Football Outsiders intern.