2018 Divisional Discussion Thread
Here's the open thread for discussing all of this weekend's divisional-round action. On Saturday, we've got Atlanta at Philadelphia followed by Tennessee at New England. On Sunday, we start with Jacksonville at Pittsburgh, then New Orleans at Minnesota.
Comments
389 comments, Last at 16 Jan 2018, 11:07am
#139 by Anger...rising // Jan 14, 2018 - 1:26pm
The inconsistency in forward progress is so annoying. Fournette ran into a scrum and initially got pushed back a yard, but nobody blew a whistle, so Jacksonville's entire offensive line came and pushed the pile five yards.
#143 by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Jan 14, 2018 - 1:34pm
Jacksonville looks like the clearly superior team so far. The wildcard is Bortles. That guy is a ticking time bomb for his own team. The problem for Pittsburgh is, the longer the Jags have a multi-possession lead, the more they can just keep handing off to Fournette and minimize the Blake-tanic's impact on the game.
#151 by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Jan 14, 2018 - 2:10pm
It's not his baseline performance in 2017 I worry about. It's his wild swings...specifically his sometimes insane turnovers. He lost the Jets game single-handedly. And remember the Jaguars would have missed the playoffs if it weren't for the fact that the Chargers somehow couldn't close out the game after Bortles threw them TWO terrible interceptions after the two minute warning.
#389 by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Jan 16, 2018 - 11:07am
I'm not trying to argue that the Jaguars aren't a good team. They clearly are a very good team that belongs in the AFCCG. I was just pointing out that they have a clear weakness at quarterback relative to the rest of their team, and it came very close to sinking them.
#149 by RickD // Jan 14, 2018 - 1:58pm
I'm sure our Mike Tomlin fan would have some thoughts about that play call.
Saw stat on Twitter: the Steelers were 1 for 6 converting 4th down this season when they ran.
Given they have Bell and Roethlisberger as rushing options, that's astonishing.
#156 by RickD // Jan 14, 2018 - 2:25pm
I had just posted to Twitter a "There's lot of time left" comment before that fumble recovery/TD.
Steelers have a great offense and could certainly catch up. But they are not playing well at all. And as the minutes tick by, it will be harder and harder, as they have to pass against a great passing D with great corners and a great pass rush.
The Jags present a different kind of problem than than Steelers would. Given the Pats' record vs. Pittsburgh in recent years, the Jaguars might be a more credible obstacle. They have the kind of defense that could stop the Pats cold.
But then there is the Bortles issue...
#160 by Cythammer // Jan 14, 2018 - 2:33pm
I liked going for it on fourth down there, since it would be a long kick and down 21, a FG doesn't help you much. But letting that much time drain off the clock before calling a timeout was terrible. Of course it doesn't matter when you just go right for a TD anyway.
#164 by stoste // Jan 14, 2018 - 2:48pm
Definitely not over. Even if Pitt don't score on the drive to open the 2nd half there is still plenty of time left but the offense would be helped by the Steelers stepping up and getting some 3 and outs. If Fournette doesn't come back into the game and they have to lean on Yeldon then that would be interesting although even if he does come back how good will he be now he's hurt? A turnover by the Steelers D would also flip this game. Can Bortles go the entire 2nd half without a killer mistake?
#171 by Cythammer // Jan 14, 2018 - 2:59pm
This was already apparent in the first half, but the Jags aren't really stopping the Steelers except via turnovers. Otherwise Pittsburgh is going up and down the field pretty easily. Jacksonville's offense is going to have to keep scoring to secure this game.
#174 by AHBM // Jan 14, 2018 - 3:02pm
All three of the Steelers touchdowns thus far have been thread-the-needle throws from distance (outside or just inside the red zone). It seems like they're trying to test their luck since the first interception (and 1 or 2 near misses) and it's playing out for them.
#195 by Mountain Time … // Jan 14, 2018 - 3:56pm
Wow! What are the chances the Jax player on the defensive right stepped forward aggressively before the 4th down snap specifically to get Ben to give away the play? When he audibled it seemed obvious he was calling off a run
While this is probably an optimal strategy against Pittsburgh, let's hope they're smart enough not to try it in New England next week.
#193 by Cythammer // Jan 14, 2018 - 3:55pm
Couple of gigantic third down conversions. Bortles hasn't been exactly good, but I think he's played the role of game manager... Which seems weird to say about a QB for an offense that now, as I type, has scored 35 points.
#205 by voytron // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:08pm
“We’re going to play [the Patriots] again,” Steeler's safety Mike Mitchell told Sports Illustrated. “We can play them in hell, we can play them in Haiti, we can play them in New England. … We’re gonna win.”
But can he play them from his living room?
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2018/01/10/steelers-mike-mitchell-guarantees-playoff-win-over-patriots/
#211 by Cythammer // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:14pm
Most onside kicks don't result in the receiving team already being in FG range, so you don't anticipate that. You have to get a three and out either way, so might as well try for the onside. I think it's the right call. The big problem was only kicking it five yards.
#214 by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:19pm
Even if it went 10 yards, the Jaguars would only need 7-8 yards to get into makeable range.
I wonder if anyone has studied the probability of recovering an onside kick vs getting a 3 and out on defense. I'd be shocked if the latter weren't more likely.
#227 by Cythammer // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:27pm
I think it's rare for onside kicks be recovered at exactly ten yards. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like most recovered onside kicks are not in a position where a few yards will set you for a FG. Not to mention it's in Heinz Field, where FGs are difficult.
#259 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:58pm
But if they hadn't converted, Atlanta kicks the chipshot FG to win.
That seems like a wash to me.
I'd have gone for it, but I get the thinking.
Belichick has kicked to go up by one score on 3/4 opportunities.
#274 by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Jan 14, 2018 - 5:15pm
But they would have had to start from inside their own 5 yard line, which is a much different proposition than receiving a kickoff. I can see kicking when you're up by 4. But anything less, and you're still allowing a touchdown to beat you.
#375 by Patrick Mahome… // Jan 14, 2018 - 10:32pm
If the Eagles don't score there, the Falcons need just 60 yards to have a legit shot at a FG to win the game. By kicking the FG, the Falcons have to drive ~75 yards for a TD. As we found out, scoring a TD is a lot more difficult than kicking a FG. There's no way you can go for it in that situation and risk a FG beating you. Especially when you consider that the longest TD drive Atlanta had on the night was about 20 yards after a muffed punt. They hadn't been moving the ball at all. Give the defense a little more margin for error and let them seal the deal.
#385 by Patrick Mahome… // Jan 15, 2018 - 1:28am
It's especially funny given that Atlanta ended up in roughly the same spot 4th and Goal from the 2, and didn't make it. It was probably 50/50 if the Eagle score or turn the ball over on downs if they go for it. And it seems like it has become fairly common for teams to move into FG territory in ~30 seconds at the end of a game. Hell, the Eagles did it themselves at the end of the 1st half.
#236 by big10freak // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:39pm
I wrote that based on the notion that before this game the Pats were likely not concerned and nothing in this game would catch their attention and lead to them consider otherwise.
but hey, thanks for the sarcasm. Always welcome
#243 by Cythammer // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:46pm
If you think any Bill Belichick coached team is going to be "not concerned" about any opponent, I don't know what planet you're from. The Patriots could be playing a peewee team and Belichick would still require his team to focus like they were a squad of all pros.
#260 by Mountain Time … // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:59pm
Key word "seemingly." You saw it one way, he read it another. If you don't want people interpreting your comments through the filter of their own perspective, it's on you to communicate more. I don't see what the big deal about it is anyway
#273 by Cythammer // Jan 14, 2018 - 5:14pm
I don't think mild sarcasm qualifies as nasty tone. Especially to a comment that was pretty silly (any team would be rightly concerned when facing one of the best defenses in the league, one supbar game doesn't change that).
#311 by hrudey // Jan 14, 2018 - 7:24pm
Well, why should it? They'll be playing the Steelers, because they had nothing to be concerned about the Jaguars' offense after last weekend, right? I only wish that New England would fall victim to that type of overconfidence.
#235 by Anger...rising // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:36pm
Once they got to the five so quickly, the only real obstacle should've been the onside kick. Quick throws to the end zone leave plenty of time on the other side for a completion or two to set up a field goal, but instead it's hold and hold and hold the ball leading to a 10-second runoff, then an inexplicable screen and failure to get out of bounds and, presto, like 45 seconds have disappeared in the space of two plays. Unreal.
#232 by Mountain Time … // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:33pm
I think Jacksonville has a better chance of beating NE than Pittsburgh ever did. Honestly I can't really see either of them pulling it off, but Jax is more of a wild card. They match up strength/strength and weakness/weakness; if Jax's weakness plays like they did today, we'll have a close game on our hands. If Jalen Ramsey has a Richard Sherman-esque coming out party, we'll have a Jax vs. [Minn/NO] Bowl!
Jacksonville's deficiencies are more difficult to exploit. You can force B.Roeth into making mistakes, but you can't force Bortles into doing anything. You also don't *need* to, he'll make mistakes all on his own. But maybe not!
#233 by Steve in WI // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:34pm
I know recovering the onside kick and returning it for a TD has to be like a 0.001% probability, but maybe try it because it’s your only shot? The squib kick makes no sense...the Jaguars player was so far away from anyone that even if he fumbled it he’d have had all the time in the world to recover.
Talk about terrible coaching by Tomlin in the last few minutes.
#254 by Eddo // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:52pm
It's actually a flat zero percent. Like a muffed punt, a recovered onside kick cannot be advanced by the kicking team.
Pittsburgh's only real hope was Jacksonville receiving the kick, having full possession, then fumbling.
#234 by RobotBoy // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:35pm
More interesting than another Steeler's matchup for Pats. More of a test for Hoodie to play an unfamiliar opponent that has scored 45 and 10 points in the playoffs.
McCourty was on the injury report for yesterday's game and he got hurt again yesterday. I thought he looked hobbled. Would be a big blow to Pats secondary if he was out.
#267 by Cythammer // Jan 14, 2018 - 5:10pm
Oh, I just meant the narrative of Harrison playing against his former team of 17 years after their ugly breakup would super annoying. Against any team other than the Steelers he'll just be another guy in terms of storylines.
#252 by stoste // Jan 14, 2018 - 4:50pm
I think Steelers with Antonio Brown would have beaten the Pats, even in Foxboro but I'm glad that matchup isn't happening so we have a chance to have a different team representing the AFC in the Superbowl. It's hard to take what we saw today and apply that to the next matchup because NE and Pitt are so different.
#272 by RickD // Jan 14, 2018 - 5:13pm
I don't disagree. Since the Wentz injury, the Vikings have been the best coached and most complete team in the NFC.
The Pats beat the Saints back in September. Both teams are better now, but I would still give the Pats the advantage there.
The Vikings are more physical and match up well with New England. And they'd be playing at home. Though given how the NFL distributes Super Bowl tickets, that would be far less of a home field advantage than they have today.