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FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Please use this thread to alert us to errors, misspellings, and other typos in Football Outsiders Almanac 2018. Let us know the error and the page. We'll correct these in future versions of the book, and you can re-download and get a corrected copy.

One item you don't need to alert us to: the additional "Go Back" bookmarks. We will be fixing those for the second version.

Comments

55 comments, Last at 04 Aug 2018, 6:26pm

1 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

p. 154-155: "They clearly soured on Malcolm Butler, to the point where he was a surprise Super Bowl inactive and then departed in free agency."

Butler was active for the Super Bowl, but only played on special teams.

19 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

I haven't read the book yet... with that being said:
I wouldn't think too lightly of that move. Tyrod Taylor is a very big upgrade and they added Landry in the offseason too. If Josh Gordon can be anything he was in 2013, then they could be having an actual NFL passing game IFFFFFFFFFFF the oline blocks for half a damn.
They also brought in Hyde and a rookie at runningback and Todd Haley as the OC we will be seeing a different kind of offense than the previous 2 seasons. Or 19 seasons for that matter.
The question is how far they can keep Hue from having any influence.

20 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Without getting much into whether Gordon can stay off the bong - although he's shown all the signs he will - the fact that the majority of Corey Coleman's targets will be replaced by Landry is huge, yes.

I don't buy into the "buh teh skejewel!" thing that local radio and fans are saying - it is very hard to predict schedules, and the AFC South was much harder than usual last year.

That said, after seeing things like the Packers disaster where GB survived their last game in the first stretch without Rodgers, and the Titans OT disaster, I'll believe the Brownies and Hue in particular can finish off a game more than once every 2 years when I see it.

22 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Well, as I noted from the context, they played the AFC South last year, and it was better than expected, so my point was switching to the AFC Wast and NFC South would be that much harder.

On that note, AFC South "might" actually be one of the best divisions in the league this year, now that Luck, Watson and Watt are back.

7 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Giants chapter. "Sterling Shepard, the only prominent wideout to make it through that game unscathed..." is not correct. He was... scathed in that game. He missed most of the 2nd quarter through the end of that game, plus the next two.

11 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

p. 149: “When Cousins’ cap number balloons to $29 million in 2019, the Vikings will still have three key free agents in Diggs, Barr, and Kendricks.”

p. 152: “Lineback- ers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr are both eyeing contract extensions any day now.”

Kendricks recently signed a long term extension.

p. 152: “There are concerns about Holmes’ ability to rush the passer as a 4-3 end, but he only needs to be a small part of the rotation.”

FWIW, Holmes has switched positions and is expected to play DT.

13 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

p. 459, table: WR: Highest Wide/Slot Ratio of Targets

If I understand correctly, the right column should be titled "Wide %" not "Short %", or else the data in that column should be presented as 1-X (86% -> 14%, etc)

26 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Not an error per se, but splitting Hasaan Reddick's last name across two lines (Red-dick) in the Cardinals chapter is pretty jarring and kind of funny.

Also, I like how you guys evolve the stats tables a little bit each year, getting smarter and smarter with the stats. I like the inclusion of "WR Wide" and "WR Slot" in the team coverage tables, IMO those categories make more sense than #1, #2, other.

27 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Cardinals article text says Arizona had identical -24.8% rushing offense and rushing defense DVOA, but the Trends and Splits table shows -25.6% rushing offense and -24.4% rushing defense. Still ends up being dead last on offense and first in defense, which was the point of that sentence in the article, but the numbers are off.

32 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

p.xxi: "Average Opponent gives a ranking of last year’s
schedule strength based on the average DVOA of all 16 opponents
faced during the regular season. Teams are ranked
from the hardest schedule of 2016 (Chicago) to the easiest
(Jacksonville)."

Should 2016 read 2017?

35 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

p.156 "Our projection system, . . . are giving (the Patriots) the third-highest projection by wins since we've started having a projection system."

This directly contradicts Table 1 on p. 155 which only goes back to 2012. It's not even NE's 3rd-highest win projection ever. (I'm dying to know what this sentence was supposed to say.)

36 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Not a typo/edit, but a logic complaint . . .

In both the Pittsburgh and LA Chargers essay, it makes note of how poor a tackler Ryan Shazier was last year. Yet the Steelers' essay also lays the blame on the team's poor defensive finish on Shazier's absence.

I can't reconcile the two in my mind.

39 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Shazier did miss a lot of tackles, but he was also the best player on the defense. With his speed, he usually got to the back or receiver very early, which meant that even if he missed the tackle, he slowed down the ballcarrier a bit and let the rest of the defense close in on him. Not all missed tackles are created equally; one in the backfield probably still stops the running back in his tracks and greatly reduces the odds of a successful play, while one 15 yards downfield probably means a touchdown.

40 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

This is a large part of it.

Shazier was a top-10 inside linebacker last year, with excellent skills in both pass and run defense. However, just as a pure -tackler-, he struggled; he's probably the worst tackler of that top-10 bunch.

His sheer number of missed/broken tackles comes, in part, from being good enough to be in a position to make a play frequently. His rate of broken tackles was far, far too high for a top guy, but because he kept getting himself into position to make plays, he made a lot of important stops and/or forced teams to flow away from him and/or slowed down a runner just enough for the rest of the defense to swarm to him.

If he improved his ability to finish plays, he would have been a top-five, maybe even top-three inside linebacker. It's his Achilles heel.

41 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Excuse the break from nitpicking and error citing for praise -- the Browns essay is really, really well done.

Thinking up a clever concept and converting it with high-quality execution to admired end-product is difficult whether in the writer's room at SNL or constructing team previews. (And, I've got a little experience with the latter, having spent 3 years at ESPN writing 90 of these for MLB teams.)

Mike and Aaron, take a bow.

48 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

P. 55 "the 1988 Detroit Lions finished
28th in a 28-team league at 26.6% DVOA"

Should be negative, also the website says -26.9%

P. 109 "but whe the Patriots adjusted"

P. 217 "This is not something that can afford to continue"

…they can afford to let continue?

P. 219 "pro formations were still all the cutting edge of offensive philosophy"

…at the cutting edge?

P. 219 "power against power and gain a yard or 2"

Definitely depends on your MoS, but typically single-digit numerals are spelled out

P. 192 "P. 55 "the 1988 Detroit Lions finished
28th in a 28-team league at 26.6% DVOA"

Should be negative, also the website says -26.9%

P. 109 "but whe the Patriots adjusted"

P. 217 "This is not something that can afford to continue"

…they can afford to let continue?

P. 219 "pro formations were still all the cutting edge of offensive philosophy"

…at the cutting edge?

P. 219 "power against power and gain a yard or 2"

Definitely depends on your MoS, but typically single-digit numerals are spelled out

P. 192 "dad jeans-wearing"

Hyphenating "dad-jeans" would be correct, I think

49 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Oops, I apparently got some page numbers wrong. Maybe at the beginning I was looking at the .pdf readers page #, but halfway through I started looking at the printed numbers on the pages? Hopefully this helps anyway

Also, per the last entry about hyphenation, I see it written ALL OVER the damn place the way I thought was wrong, so maybe I'm mistaken. But then I also see Random Capitalized Words every damn where as well…

47 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

There is a new third version of the book now available for download which fixes everything through comment 45, including the problem of the 6OL percentages inexplicably coming out wrong on all the Strategic Tendencies tables.

53 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

If you purchased the PRINT version of Football Outsiders Almanac 2018, you can now download an "Errata" sheet which fixes a few errors that made it through the editing process, including the incorrect frequencies of 6OL sets.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/files/errata2018.pdf

55 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

The final sentence of Darren Sproles projection paragraph (p. 304) doesn't really jive with the numbers projection. If he comes close to the predicted scrimmage yards in his projection he'd need less than 100 punt return yards to make it 20,000 All-Purpose yards.