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FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

Please use this thread to alert us to errors, misspellings, and other typos in Football Outsiders Almanac 2018. Let us know the error and the page. We'll correct these in future versions of the book, and you can re-download and get a corrected copy.

One item you don't need to alert us to: the additional "Go Back" bookmarks. We will be fixing those for the second version.

Comments

55 comments, Last at 04 Aug 2018, 6:26pm

1 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Travis // Jul 20, 2018 - 12:27pm

p. 154-155: "They clearly soured on Malcolm Butler, to the point where he was a surprise Super Bowl inactive and then departed in free agency."

Butler was active for the Super Bowl, but only played on special teams.

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2 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by twall2014 // Jul 20, 2018 - 12:45pm

All the teams have "2017 Mean Projection" instead of "2018 Mean Projection"

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10 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by ChrisS // Jul 20, 2018 - 10:14pm

I think all of the Lions projections are "mean", they need some nice projections. I think it is strange that mean in statistics is the average but "mean" as an adjective in common speech is a description of well below average behavior. They do from different root words/languages

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3 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Jul 20, 2018 - 12:52pm

Detroit's total DVOA ordinal ranking from 2017 is listed as 27th, which is actually their 2016 ranking.

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4 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Vincent Verhei // Jul 20, 2018 - 3:00pm

Argh. This was a universal mistake and will need to be fixed in each chapter. Grrr.

Thank you for pointing it out!

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5 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by agauntpanda // Jul 20, 2018 - 3:26pm

p. 283 "hris Carson"

p. 266 Rivers blurb says 2017 was Rivers' best statistical year since 2013 but the chart seems to indicate 2015 was better than 2017

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9 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by agauntpanda // Jul 20, 2018 - 9:12pm

p. 193 "DiFillippo" (DiFilippo has only one L)
p. 193 "Mathews" (Jordan Matthews' name has two Ts)

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15 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by agauntpanda // Jul 21, 2018 - 1:40pm

Courtland Sutton's name misspelled ("Courland") in Playmaker Score/Rating table

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6 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Jul 20, 2018 - 4:01pm

You included the Cleveland Browns as a professional football team.

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12 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Vincent Verhei // Jul 21, 2018 - 3:58am

I think you're joking, but the Cleveland chapter is kinda a debate about that very question, so...

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17 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by herewegobrowniesherewego // Jul 22, 2018 - 10:33am

Well, they are replacing a -34.5 DVOA/-38.6 VOA QB [!!] with a -7.0 DVOA/-2.1 VOA one, so there's that...

Although JT is of course a big loss, and I think Danny Shelton is going to be a bigger loss than his trade return indicated, "scheme fit" or not.

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19 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Theo // Jul 22, 2018 - 12:19pm

I haven't read the book yet... with that being said:
I wouldn't think too lightly of that move. Tyrod Taylor is a very big upgrade and they added Landry in the offseason too. If Josh Gordon can be anything he was in 2013, then they could be having an actual NFL passing game IFFFFFFFFFFF the oline blocks for half a damn.
They also brought in Hyde and a rookie at runningback and Todd Haley as the OC we will be seeing a different kind of offense than the previous 2 seasons. Or 19 seasons for that matter.
The question is how far they can keep Hue from having any influence.

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20 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by herewegobrowniesherewego // Jul 22, 2018 - 1:14pm

Without getting much into whether Gordon can stay off the bong - although he's shown all the signs he will - the fact that the majority of Corey Coleman's targets will be replaced by Landry is huge, yes.

I don't buy into the "buh teh skejewel!" thing that local radio and fans are saying - it is very hard to predict schedules, and the AFC South was much harder than usual last year.

That said, after seeing things like the Packers disaster where GB survived their last game in the first stretch without Rodgers, and the Titans OT disaster, I'll believe the Brownies and Hue in particular can finish off a game more than once every 2 years when I see it.

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21 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by LionInAZ // Jul 22, 2018 - 3:55pm

The schedule is absolutely a problem - every team they face is not named the Browns.

BTW, they play the NFC South, not the AFC South. If it were the AFCS, they might have a better shot.

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22 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by herewegobrowniesherewego // Jul 22, 2018 - 5:35pm

Well, as I noted from the context, they played the AFC South last year, and it was better than expected, so my point was switching to the AFC Wast and NFC South would be that much harder.

On that note, AFC South "might" actually be one of the best divisions in the league this year, now that Luck, Watson and Watt are back.

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29 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by herewegobrowniesherewego // Jul 23, 2018 - 12:34pm

Um, about what I said about Gordon...

https://twitter.com/Browns/status/1021401485127618565

https://twitter.com/JOSH_GORDONXII/status/1021398682619572225

:facepalm:

Still means that Landry will replace a lot of Coleman's targets, which is a good thing.

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18 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Jul 22, 2018 - 12:08pm

I enjoyed the Cleveland chapter, but Aaron and Mike missed a golden opportunity to pay homage to A Few Good Men by having Hue Jackson take stand as a Col.Jessup type character, and yell "YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!", as he rails against analytics.

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7 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Dales // Jul 20, 2018 - 5:22pm

Giants chapter. "Sterling Shepard, the only prominent wideout to make it through that game unscathed..." is not correct. He was... scathed in that game. He missed most of the 2nd quarter through the end of that game, plus the next two.

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8 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Dales // Jul 20, 2018 - 5:25pm

Link to an article from after that game:
https://www.sbnation.com/2017/10/8/16444176/brandon-marshall-sterling-sh...

He missed more than half of that Chargers' game, and then the next two games after that, with the injury.

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11 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Krauser // Jul 21, 2018 - 1:32am

p. 149: “When Cousins’ cap number balloons to $29 million in 2019, the Vikings will still have three key free agents in Diggs, Barr, and Kendricks.”

p. 152: “Lineback- ers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr are both eyeing contract extensions any day now.”

Kendricks recently signed a long term extension.

p. 152: “There are concerns about Holmes’ ability to rush the passer as a 4-3 end, but he only needs to be a small part of the rotation.”

FWIW, Holmes has switched positions and is expected to play DT.

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13 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Krauser // Jul 21, 2018 - 12:56pm

p. 459, table: WR: Highest Wide/Slot Ratio of Targets

If I understand correctly, the right column should be titled "Wide %" not "Short %", or else the data in that column should be presented as 1-X (86% -> 14%, etc)

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14 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Krauser // Jul 21, 2018 - 12:57pm

**"Wide %" not "Slot %", thanks autocorrect

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16 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by williampeck // Jul 21, 2018 - 2:36pm

The Chargers' Forrest Lamp is repeatedly referred to as Forrest Lamb

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23 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by MarkV // Jul 22, 2018 - 6:12pm

pg 53: Ddefense is not a word

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24 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by MarkV // Jul 22, 2018 - 7:50pm

131 "defensive Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib," I believe is missing backs

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25 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Krauser // Jul 23, 2018 - 1:51am

p.186: "Emmanuel Lemur" should be "Lamur"

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30 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by dbostedo // Jul 24, 2018 - 10:05pm

Awww, man! I was looking forward to watching a different primate play football for once.

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50 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by LionInAZ // Jul 29, 2018 - 4:26pm

Imagine the possibilities prehensile tails offer.

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26 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by jtr // Jul 23, 2018 - 11:10am

Not an error per se, but splitting Hasaan Reddick's last name across two lines (Red-dick) in the Cardinals chapter is pretty jarring and kind of funny.

Also, I like how you guys evolve the stats tables a little bit each year, getting smarter and smarter with the stats. I like the inclusion of "WR Wide" and "WR Slot" in the team coverage tables, IMO those categories make more sense than #1, #2, other.

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27 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by jtr // Jul 23, 2018 - 11:17am

Cardinals article text says Arizona had identical -24.8% rushing offense and rushing defense DVOA, but the Trends and Splits table shows -25.6% rushing offense and -24.4% rushing defense. Still ends up being dead last on offense and first in defense, which was the point of that sentence in the article, but the numbers are off.

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28 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Aaron Schatz // Jul 23, 2018 - 11:34am

There is now a second edition ready for download which corrects everything listed above through comment 25 (and some other things).

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31 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by yelloweverything // Jul 25, 2018 - 12:49am

Philadelphia RG Brandon Brooks is incorrectly referred to as "Barrett" on page 197.

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32 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by sully // Jul 25, 2018 - 10:00am

p.xxi: "Average Opponent gives a ranking of last year’s
schedule strength based on the average DVOA of all 16 opponents
faced during the regular season. Teams are ranked
from the hardest schedule of 2016 (Chicago) to the easiest
(Jacksonville)."

Should 2016 read 2017?

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33 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by jtr // Jul 26, 2018 - 1:05pm

Houston's personnel data lists four 6+ OL personnel groups that add up to 15%, but strategic tendencies has them down for only 7% 6+ OL. One of those has to be wrong.

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43 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Aaron Schatz // Jul 27, 2018 - 4:08pm

The error here is in the Strategic Tendencies table, not sure how that happened. It should say 18%, which ranks 1st in the league for 2017.

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45 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by jtr // Jul 27, 2018 - 5:36pm

You might want to check all of those, I remember seeing another team listed as #1 in 6OL and I think even had that mentioned in the blurb under the table.

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34 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by jtr // Jul 26, 2018 - 2:59pm

The Jags front 7 table has x's instead of numbers in the linebacker INT column

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35 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by jpeta // Jul 26, 2018 - 4:59pm

p.156 "Our projection system, . . . are giving (the Patriots) the third-highest projection by wins since we've started having a projection system."

This directly contradicts Table 1 on p. 155 which only goes back to 2012. It's not even NE's 3rd-highest win projection ever. (I'm dying to know what this sentence was supposed to say.)

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37 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Vincent Verhei // Jul 26, 2018 - 6:02pm

The table is right, the sentence is wrong. The sentence is based on our initial projections, which were done several months ago. We updated the table and forgot to update the text.

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44 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Aaron Schatz // Jul 27, 2018 - 4:13pm

The funny part of this is that it looks like in the second edition we changed the sentence to correct it, and then left the old incorrect sentence next to it. Oops!

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36 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by jpeta // Jul 26, 2018 - 5:01pm

Not a typo/edit, but a logic complaint . . .

In both the Pittsburgh and LA Chargers essay, it makes note of how poor a tackler Ryan Shazier was last year. Yet the Steelers' essay also lays the blame on the team's poor defensive finish on Shazier's absence.

I can't reconcile the two in my mind.

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39 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by jtr // Jul 27, 2018 - 8:31am

Shazier did miss a lot of tackles, but he was also the best player on the defense. With his speed, he usually got to the back or receiver very early, which meant that even if he missed the tackle, he slowed down the ballcarrier a bit and let the rest of the defense close in on him. Not all missed tackles are created equally; one in the backfield probably still stops the running back in his tracks and greatly reduces the odds of a successful play, while one 15 yards downfield probably means a touchdown.

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40 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Bryan Knowles // Jul 27, 2018 - 3:12pm

This is a large part of it.

Shazier was a top-10 inside linebacker last year, with excellent skills in both pass and run defense. However, just as a pure -tackler-, he struggled; he's probably the worst tackler of that top-10 bunch.

His sheer number of missed/broken tackles comes, in part, from being good enough to be in a position to make a play frequently. His rate of broken tackles was far, far too high for a top guy, but because he kept getting himself into position to make plays, he made a lot of important stops and/or forced teams to flow away from him and/or slowed down a runner just enough for the rest of the defense to swarm to him.

If he improved his ability to finish plays, he would have been a top-five, maybe even top-three inside linebacker. It's his Achilles heel.

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38 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by twall2014 // Jul 26, 2018 - 9:03pm

All the mentions of Sidney Jones in the Eagles chapter are spelled as "Sydney Jones"

edit: full name on page 199, hyphenated on 195 b/c line break

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41 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by jpeta // Jul 27, 2018 - 3:59pm

Excuse the break from nitpicking and error citing for praise -- the Browns essay is really, really well done.

Thinking up a clever concept and converting it with high-quality execution to admired end-product is difficult whether in the writer's room at SNL or constructing team previews. (And, I've got a little experience with the latter, having spent 3 years at ESPN writing 90 of these for MLB teams.)

Mike and Aaron, take a bow.

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42 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Aaron Schatz // Jul 27, 2018 - 4:03pm

Thanks!

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46 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by The Ninjalectual // Jul 28, 2018 - 9:51am

I definitely agree; I think the concept has value beyond the schtick, too. I'd like to see future chapters written by two writers with different viewpoints, especially if they're as well argued as this.

(I'd have to say Aaron "won," but then I was biased that way from the beginning.)

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48 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by The Ninjalectual // Jul 28, 2018 - 3:19pm

P. 55 "the 1988 Detroit Lions finished
28th in a 28-team league at 26.6% DVOA"

Should be negative, also the website says -26.9%

P. 109 "but whe the Patriots adjusted"

P. 217 "This is not something that can afford to continue"

…they can afford to let continue?

P. 219 "pro formations were still all the cutting edge of offensive philosophy"

…at the cutting edge?

P. 219 "power against power and gain a yard or 2"

Definitely depends on your MoS, but typically single-digit numerals are spelled out

P. 192 "P. 55 "the 1988 Detroit Lions finished
28th in a 28-team league at 26.6% DVOA"

Should be negative, also the website says -26.9%

P. 109 "but whe the Patriots adjusted"

P. 217 "This is not something that can afford to continue"

…they can afford to let continue?

P. 219 "pro formations were still all the cutting edge of offensive philosophy"

…at the cutting edge?

P. 219 "power against power and gain a yard or 2"

Definitely depends on your MoS, but typically single-digit numerals are spelled out

P. 192 "dad jeans-wearing"

Hyphenating "dad-jeans" would be correct, I think

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49 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by The Ninjalectual // Jul 29, 2018 - 2:10pm

Oops, I apparently got some page numbers wrong. Maybe at the beginning I was looking at the .pdf readers page #, but halfway through I started looking at the printed numbers on the pages? Hopefully this helps anyway

Also, per the last entry about hyphenation, I see it written ALL OVER the damn place the way I thought was wrong, so maybe I'm mistaken. But then I also see Random Capitalized Words every damn where as well…

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51 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by ChrisS // Jul 31, 2018 - 11:43am

I am unsure what "dad jeans-wearing" would mean. I agree with "dad-jeans wearing", since the person is wearing dad-jeans.

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54 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Vincent Verhei // Jul 31, 2018 - 2:23pm

If the person was wearing jeans, you would say he is jeans-wearing, with a hyphen. I don't know if there is a formal style for dad jeans, but I went with no hyphen there. Like you wouldn't hyphenate ski boots or leather jacket.

Thus, "dad jeans-wearing."

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47 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Aaron Schatz // Jul 28, 2018 - 2:25pm

There is a new third version of the book now available for download which fixes everything through comment 45, including the problem of the 6OL percentages inexplicably coming out wrong on all the Strategic Tendencies tables.

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52 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by jtr // Jul 31, 2018 - 1:50pm

Chargers secondary table has the top three players listed twice

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53 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by Aaron Schatz // Jul 31, 2018 - 2:15pm

If you purchased the PRINT version of Football Outsiders Almanac 2018, you can now download an "Errata" sheet which fixes a few errors that made it through the editing process, including the incorrect frequencies of 6OL sets.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/files/errata2018.pdf

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55 Re: FOA 2018 Inevitable Errors/Mistakes Thread

by rosmith51 // Aug 04, 2018 - 6:26pm

The final sentence of Darren Sproles projection paragraph (p. 304) doesn't really jive with the numbers projection. If he comes close to the predicted scrimmage yards in his projection he'd need less than 100 punt return yards to make it 20,000 All-Purpose yards.

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