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Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Week 11 Open Game Discussion
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

The last time the Packers visited Seattle, a berth in the Super Bowl at stake. The stakes aren't quite as high on Thursday night, but the loser is still going to be in dire straights in a crowded NFC playoff race. Other big games this weekend include Houston-Washington, Minnesota-Chicago on Sunday night, and this year's Game of the Century, the Chiefs facing the Rams in Mexico City Los Angeles. Use this thread to discuss them all.


183 comments, Last at 20 Nov 2018, 12:22pm

38 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

yeah, ti was 24-20 at 5:30 to go or so, and i said to msyelf, setttle will score touchdown. will come down to wteher packers can then mount comeback or not.

luckily, in no office pools or yahoo pick em groups. my onyl picks this season are poosted here and nothing is on the line. kinda fun actualkly. havent; ever even looked at point spreads this season,. only know about them when mentioned by sports radio hosts

3 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Welcome to Mike McCarthy's personal house of horrors. More weird crap - from the Fail Mary to the 2014 NFC Championship - I freaking hate it when they play in Seattle.

4 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Great start for the defense.
Good start for the offense.
Bad start for the special teams.

6 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Rodgers TD pass to Tonyan was amazing. He makes tossing a ball 55 yards while on the run look effortless.

10 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

I’m shocked, SHOCKED, that GB gave up a huge penalty on a kick return and then a 3rd down sack on the drive.

37 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Can we please just get rid of the kickoff? It seems like EVERY big return comes back with a holding penalty or a block in the back. That's when they bother to return it at all. Every single starting kicker in the league has sent at least half of his kickoffs for touchbacks. So in descending order of likelihood the kickoff's most likely outcomes are:
1. Touchback
2. Return short of the 25
3. Return past the 25 that comes back with holding
4. Actual big return

NFL, kill this play now, just give the receiving team the ball on the 25 and give teams the option of 4th-and-15 or so to replace the onside kick.

47 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

I agree. Let me create a new list with the return taken out of the endzone (or inside the 5 where the ball would likely go in for touchback).

In order of probability.

1. Return short of the 25
2. Return short of the 25 that gets *half the distance to the goal* penalty
3. Return past the 25 that comes back with holding
4. Return to around the 30
5. Fumble
6. Actual big return

Five of those six are bad or not worth the risk (#4)!

44 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

I'll say it again; if you use the PAT play to determine field position on the succeeding possession, with a normal PAT kick, or a successful field goal, resulting in the ball being placed on the 35, you would greatly incentivize two point conversions (ball placed on 20), and 4 down offense. Toss in a two point conversion from the 15 if the scoring team wants to keep the ball, say at the opponents 45, and you greatly reduce the most boring play, the PAT kick, and get rid of kickoffs completely.

126 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

you are so least the kickoffs have resulted in fewer injuries this year.

but here's my suggestion addressing exactly what you say; I say when a penalty is called on the return team, if it occurs away from the play and confers no advantage to the return team, if after a booth review the ref agrees, they should pick up the flag (except maybe facemask, personal foul, unnecessary roughness). yes, I'm loathe to slow the game down anymore or let refs screw up more calls but this'd increase scoring, make games more exciting, and make special teams becomes a bit more important.

example; last week with Chiefs, Hill ran a punt back for TD but it was called back for illegal block in back (which it wasnt) about 20 yards away from the actual action. if they'd have this mod to the rule AFTER a booth review if ref concludes it didnt materially affect the play (except for penalty) the result should be allowed. it could also result in say, a fumble by return team recovered by kicking team, so it cuts both ways.

and after Thurs nite, its absolutely clear; McCarty has to go. making Rogers put on his Superman cape every week b/c of a lame O, a bad D and even worse coaching isnt fair to that team. and they have some talent.

11 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Wilson throwing is looking bad; seems to alternate overthrow and underthrow. He only seems to look good when it is a short touch pass. Not what I would have expected from him. I was under the impression he is really accurate going downfield.

12 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Gotta give props to McCarthy for some nice play designs to get Jones the ball through the air on their last drive before the half - double screen and then a deep corner route out of the backfield

14 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

These 3rd down sacks are infuriating. Who is to blame there? Receivers not getting open, Rodgers not finding them, or just good situational defense??

15 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

The Moore play looks like a catch and fumble to me, but I don't think there's enough to overturn it.

20 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

That ball hit the ground. McCarthy doesn’t challenge because he wasted the timeouts like they always do. Same old song and dance.

25 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Still shouldn’t have punted it.

Did the ball get deflected on that 3rd down incompletion? It looked like it fluttered. Regardless, I think it’s clear this team will have a new HC in 2019.

24 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Disappointing series for the Packers, get the ball with 5 minutes left and Rodgers passed up an easy completion to Jones, gets 8 out of MVS, then throws a duck into the turf on 3rd and 2. Thought they could’ve gone for it on 4th given their poor run D and injuries along the DL, but it was probably about 50/50.

26 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

The Packers are so bad at executing in tight situations that I can't imagine them beating a good or even decent team the rest of the season.

They need to win out to make it, but beating Minnesota and Chicago on the road and Atlanta at home seems nearly impossible.

27 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

I’m a Seahawks fan and every time they play the Packers, Mike McCarthy does something to make me happy.

30 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Some odd statistics from that game. The Packers had a big advantage in yards per play (which I imagine DVOA will like) of 7.5 to 5.5, but actually gained fewer yards because they only ran 48 plays versus 69 from Seattle.

31 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Funny no one mentioned this on the media to hype the game but that was the two highest rated QB's in NFL history facing off right there.

33 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Nuances...they are never EVER mentioned...I saw headlines of how GB Coach "messed up on TO's/wasted them in 2nd half"...not a WORD about the mental ineptitudes of WR's being in
wrong lineup and causing said TO's...its like Cowboys....can't be Dak's issues wi/holding the ball too long, not having any pre-read capabilities, inaccuracies but instead, its the Coach who has to go...

Shows the liberal medias narrative (even in sports) but also incompetence of most fans, in their
full understanding of football.

35 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

How on earth do you shoe-horn "liberal media's narrative" in to a post about a team mis-using timeouts? For the life of my I can't see how you can turn that in to a political liberal/conservative thing.

41 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

also "misused timeouts"....its more like WHY did Rodgers HAVE TO misuse
the timeout? Get to the core of wasn't Rodgers, it wasn't coach
but both'll be blamed....soso (same ole same ole)

130 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

The core of it is you ignored the FAQ rules when you wrote Shows the liberal medias narrative (even in sports) but also incompetence of most fans, in their full understanding of football. If you are unfamiliar with them, please read FO FAQ under the "About" tab. To save you time on where this is addressed, this is the part you ignored:

Q: Are there any rules for the discussion threads? Do you guys moderate at all? Are any topics off-limits?

A: We generally just ask that you keep the discussions civil and relatively family-friendly. Personal attacks are discouraged, comment spam is not well-received, and comments that are racist or otherwise blatantly offensive will be removed. Repeated offenses can result in a banning, although we hope to avoid that whenever possible. The comment filter picks up most swears, so try not to use them. It also picks up a lot of references to gambling and specific drugs, words popular with spammers. Please limit political commentary as much as possible, as it tends to dominate any thread in which it's started.

You made this political. Nobody else did. If you can't refrain from this sort of commentary, please go back to the ESPN, PFT, and other boards where that sort of thing goes on all the time. We don't want it here. Ever.

46 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Remember a few years ago when many in the sports media crucified Belichick for going for it against the Colts in an eerily similar situation? Those same people are now criticizing McCarthy for doing exactly what they would have had Belichick do.

By the way, I sided with Belichick back then, and I think McCarthy should have gone for it last night.

Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.

49 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Big difference: The Patriots were winning when they did it; the Packers were behind.

Also, as I recall the best estimates using win-probability said it was pretty close to an even-money choice in the Pats game. In a different thread, Vince of this site posted that the Packers lost about 10 percentage-points in win-probability by punting. So, I agree with your larger point that the response has changed, but it's not quite a comparable situation.

51 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

The Jaguars are making a point of giving the ball to Fournette as many times as possible. The Steelers are making a point of making that ineffective.

54 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Ben's accuracy is looking off. He threw 2 back to back hard to catch passes to the knees of Vance McDonald and JuJu Smith-Schuster who, considering the nature of the pass understandably, dropped them.

64 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

I don't think I've ever seen Ben this inaccurate. On the short stuff, he's off just enough to make the catch really difficult. Anything past 7 yards, he's been far enough off to make it impossible for his guy to get it. They just showed him at 3/12 with 2 INTs and he's played every bit as bad as those stats.

60 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

For one, that low trajectory pass was BEGGING to be picked. For the other, that doesn't LOOK like a dropped pick.

61 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

For the love of everything, the Steelers offense is starting to look like the unit from the 1st quarter of the season, and not the unit that beat up the Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Falcons and Panthers. Although no one can really pass the ball reliably today.

63 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Titans reminding us this week that that nice win against the Patriots last week did not mean they are a good team.

65 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

No need to panic. You are just down by 9, so giving the ball to Conner is still an option.

66 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Wait, what, why? So, the Steelers stop Fournette short on 3rd and 2, deep in Jags territory.. There is a holding call, which Tomlin accepts. I was mad until T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward and Bud Dupree played meet at the QB. Why would you accept that.

135 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

I was very surprised at the time, but didn't think it was a bad decision. Jags would likely have gone for it on 4th, and given the way the Steelers were getting pushed off the line and not wrapping up tackles, they would've converted the first down. I don't know if that's what Tomlin was thinking, but either way I was thankful he did it.

67 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Jaguars get a pick, but it is nullified by a phantom RTP. Was it because he fell on him? That doesn't look like a penalty.

72 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

I guess that was the body weight rule. Doesn't matter since Ramsey snags one in the end zone anyways. All day, Roethlisberger has been unable to deal with the fact that Ramsey has had Brown blanketed. He's gone back and forth between either forcing it in anyways for interceptions, or panicking and freezing up when he sees that he doesn't actually have a window on his favorite target.

144 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Over the past month, I thought the refs had gone back to only calling the egregious penalties against the QBs.

Then we had that penalty on the Jags, which in hindsight was probably a game changer, and another call in the Bears-Vikes game, both of which looked like the types of calls being made in the first few weeks of the season.

Maybe its an officiating crew thing, but those two calls looked to me like tackles on a QB that haven't been called in other games recently.

74 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

A 16 point lead shouldn't be too much to overcome. But this is the Jaguars D and this Steelers O. Doesn't look makeable.

76 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

For the love of ... what ... how? So, Brown finally shed Ramsey, Ben was looking around, saw no one, the said "F' it, I'm throwing to Brown". For a change, didn't end in pick, but a 60+ yards TD. Now it looks makeable.

77 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Down by 10 with about 8 and a half to play, facing fourth and goal from the two, the Falcons opt to kick it. Bad call.

80 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

It's the wrong call. You are two yards away and are surely above 50% to score there. There is also no guarantee the Cowboys are done scoring. If you do fail to pick it up Dallas is still trapped in their own end with a QB who takes a lot of sacks. I'm sure any fourth down calculator would say to go for it.

82 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

So there's finally been a lead change in a Redskins game for the first time all season. Washington goes up 21-20.

83 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Is gravity stronger for Roethlisberger in Jacksonville? Nearly every single pass of his has been low.

84 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

And when he does throw with accuracy, he throws them off timing. James Conner was open coming out of the backfield, but Ben took way too long to look back and hit him, resulting in Ramsey coming down and knocking it away.

85 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Panthers struggling with the Lions has to be the surprise of the day. Carolina looked so good as of just a few weeks ago.

87 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Geez. When the Steelers O-Line fights, they can't be beaten and Ben has decades to throw (Even if there is people just feet away from him). That pass to Vance was great.

88 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Wow, Panthers decide to go for two down by 1 late in the 4th. They are on the road, but Carolina should still be favorites in this game. I'm not sure I like that decision. Now they are calling a TO though.

89 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Apparently a big factor in the decision was that Gano has already missed two kicks. On the play Newton has tons of time but ultimately overthrows his receiver.

Meanwhile, the commentators are acting as if the game is definitely since Panthers have only one timeout left, but of course Carolina is going to try an onside conversion. That should be obvious.

93 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

I liked the idea, but the playcall was as vanilla as they come. The receivers just ran individual routes, with none of the routes working together to get somebody open that I could see. There wasn't even any space for Cam to take off running or anything, but that's also on a good defensive playcall, rushing 3 and playing zone.

90 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

God dang it Conner. You look at the ball, then the End Zone. Not the End zone, then wathc the ball as it slips out of your grasp.

91 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Didnt like the play calling at the end of the redskins game. Why take a deep shot when you need a quick sideline out to get closer for a game winning FG? Hopkins missed the 63 yarder.

92 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

They ran the ball, but it was an option, not a sneak. Why not a sneak? it was fun to see Ben running the option, but damn. The Steelers just BARELY got away with this one.

139 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

They got totally stonewalled on a QB sneak early in the game. That was probably enough to spook them off of sneaks for the rest of the game, especially considering how the team is just getting back to running sneaks again after about five years of categorically refusing to run them.

142 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

I think that was more of a scramble not a designed option. The first and second receiver options were covered and BB chose to run rather than wait for the #3 option who was running across the end zone to clear or not.

94 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

So the Redskins lose their game and have apparently lost Alex Smith as well. Suddenly the Cowboys might be the favorite in the division since they are only only game back. To make matters worse Washington only has four days until their next game, which would make picking up and starting a free agent QB like Sam Bradford difficult.

128 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Not enough time to get Sam Bradford ready? Thank goodness for Redskins fans.

Laughed when I heard that the Redskins' President pre-emptively announced after the Smith injury that Kap is not someone he'd want on his team. Wonder how he feels about bring RGIII back?

132 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Sam Bradford played well for the Vikings in 2016. That isn't nearly so long ago that it can be discounted. I think he's easily the best option of the QBs available in free agency, though Colt McCoy's familiarity with the playbook might be enough to make him the better option.

RGIII is on the Ravens roster and thus not an option.

134 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

My bad on RGIII.

I don't understand Bradford continuing to get chances, but no doubt he'll get another one. If not in Washington or another injury situation, then with someone in the offseason.

95 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Question: Jacksonville got flagged for 2 defensive holding calls in the endzone, which kept the Steelers in the game (Well, 1 resulted and directly nullified a pick, the other one just ... was kind of there). Jacksonville has a good secondary. Having established that. do good secondaries get called for more DPIs/Defensive Holding calls than bad secondaries?

97 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

What is wrong with Broncos kick returners? They keep returning balls out of the end zone, and haven't made it to the 15, before penalties bring them back even more half the time. It's almost as if they have bad coaching

98 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Who are these guys catching passes for the saints? Kirkwood? Carr? This team is loaded with weapons.

102 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Don't challenge Sean Payton like that.

Now we're going to see a TE around with Josh Hill, who will then throw a pass to Taysom Hill.

Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.

99 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

The Broncos go for it on fourth down and one and are called short. It looked very, very close to me, though, and I think was worth a challenge. Vance Joseph apparently disagrees.

103 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Chris Harris gets called for PI, even though he was clearly the one interfered with. The Broncos just can't catch a break with the refs this year

106 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

At 31-7 just barely starting the second half, the Saints-Eagles game looks already over.

108 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

That should do it. The Eagles go for it on 4th and 5. Bad snap, Off Target Pass, Turnover on Downs.

111 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

NOW the Broncos get screwed out of two points on a fucking weird technicality. Keenum is called down short on the conversion that he clearly made, and even the network former ref was confused about how the challenge should work. Everyone thought it would be automatically reviewed, but technically it's not a "scoring play" because he was called short, even though it's not really a regular play at all.

Hard to blame Joseph 100% there, but shouldn't he have asked the refs if he needed to challenge or if it was automatic? Between Joseph and the refs, this year sucks.

110 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Another play where Vance Joseph should've challenged. This time it's Case Keenum reaching for a two point conversion. Joseph, or whoever is radioing in advice to him, is really letting the Broncos down today. Of course, it would also be nice if the refs got the call right in the first place, though both of the instances today were tough.

114 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion


122 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

If the Broncos finish 8-8 and avoid the "two losing seasons" thing Elway cares so much about, does Joseph keep his job? Should fans be rooting for that if so? They play the Steelers at Mile High, travel to Cincy, have a sweet three-game stretch against the Browns, 49ers, and Raiders, then finish against San Diego (not correcting that) at home. They just need to win the easy three and one other to pull off .500.

123 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

The Cincy win looks far more likely. That 3 game stretch looks very winnable (Well, the new Browns could be a problem but they should handle it). The Steelers are still dominant (I'll call the Jacksonville game an anomaly, since that defense is pretty stout) and the Chargers (Whatever city they are) are pretty damn good.

124 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Broncos are actually only a game outside of a playoff spot, although there's a five-team logjam at 5-5. I guess if you buy DVOA's view of the Broncos as a top ten team than you should be rooting for Joseph to keep his job.

125 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

It's hard for me to say. I think there are some good things with Joseph and also some big problems. He's not calling offensive plays so with a good OC and maybe a game management coach handling things like challenges maybe he's not so bad. I guess it also depends on who else is available.

118 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Broncos live up to their surprisingly high DVOA rating and beat the Chargers. Ironically, they do it in a manner that DVOA might not like at all. LA had a huge advantage in yardage (479-325) and a smaller advantage in yards per play (6.7-6.3),

120 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

That's 2 (TWO!) games that have been won with game winning field goals in the last second, 3 I know have ended on last second plays (Counting the Ben Roethlisberger Option Run TD to win the game).

121 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Why ... is Wentz ... still in the game .... during garbage time? This is the same as Cam Newton staying in the game during that TNF blowout, only with a slightly less effective pass rush unit.

127 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Riley Reiff's name is only like a letter and a half away from Riley Reid, a… pornography actress… whom I… may … have heard of… somewhere… from an article I read.

133 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Bears boat rowing td celebration - a throwback to the vikings love boat scandal from 2005 ( Steve smiths td celebration).

138 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Jags (2nd half) went 3 & out 5 out of 5 times :(

OC didn't adjust to Pitt's adjustments to his offense at HT
Offensive guru's like Payton/Mcvey, must look at vanilla offenses like Jax
& just gag.
Soon it'll be Coach Coughlin in Jax....very soon.

149 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

I was shaking my head at the fact that they kept running Fournette straight forward into a wall 3 straight per drive and then punting. That shows the fact that they simply don't trust Bortles anymore.

143 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

How many kicks have Lions opponents missed this year?


The nearest to that is the four teams that have benefited from eight missed kicks. At the other end of the list, the Rams and the Patriots have only benefited from one missed kick each.

From PFP play finder:

145 Re: Week 11 Open Game Discussion

Interesting that Detroit clustered their 12 in 4 games, but Denver's opponents have missed exactly one kick per game.

What's amazing is that Detroit hasn't played Tampa Bay or San Diego, the nadir of kicking.