Football Outsiders
Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Week 16 Open Game Discussion

After a nice, relaxing, football-free Thursday, the NFL returns on Saturday with a pair of games featuring playoff-contending teams: Washington (7-7) at Tennessee (8-6) and Baltimore (8-6) at the Chargers (11-3). Big games on Sunday include Houston (10-4) at Philadelphia (7-7), Pittsburgh (8-5-1) at New Orleans (12-2), and Kansas City (11-3) at Seattle (8-6). And then on Christmas Eve there's a game between Denver and Oakland that nobody is going to watch. Use this thread to discuss them all!


58 comments, Last at 24 Dec 2018, 10:41pm

1 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

What haooened ro my post.

Well, will try again

Saturday picks

Pretty sure had Tirans 20, Squirrels 17
Ravens 23. Chargers 20

2 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Probably a lot of people have already heard this, but Lamar Jackson only needs 13 yards in this game to pass Philip Rivers' career rushing total. A rather remarkable stat.

3 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Browns officially eliminated now that the Titans win. The Mora delusion was fun while it lasted...

24 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

that OPI was borderline, prob shouldn't have been called but you can see why a ref might've thought there was a penalty in real time. but on the following play, there was no question it was an illegal shift. the receiver was standing up talking at the ref when the ball was snapped and didn't get set. clearly shown during the broadcast replay.

i love philip rivers, but the arguing with the refs on every call gets kinda old, and when he does it the other players seem to do it more. right there it cost them, but if the chargers feel that players complaining to the refs more frequently (or more vehemently i guess) than other teams will give them an edge in future calls, then chalk that penalty up as the cost of doing business. not trying to say it's a bad strategy either, it prob does help them out a little even if the refs try their best not to let that stuff bias future calls.

5 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

If you reach the ball across the line to gain and then voluntarily pull it back, you have not gained a first down. It's not the goddamn goal line.

25 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

ravens got burned on this in the Saints game earlier this season. Brees converted a 4th-and-1 a few minutes into the 4th quarter doing this same thing, and the ravens most likely would've won had it been called correctly (it was late and the ravens were still up, saints had to score 17 points in that 4th quarter to win). i'd never noticed it before that game, but i was hoping the refs would look at that play and make an adjustment to how they call it moving forward. but even the announcers got it wrong when they compared it to a goalline play. i really do hope they fix this in the future though. never noticed it before this season at that saints game, but this being a copycat league, 4th and inches will become as automatic as extra points if they don't fix this.

6 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Was there ever really any doubt the Chargers would shit the bed in this game? It's in their DNA.

16 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Chargers were dominated two games straight. They won against KC but as they stated in the DVOA post, KC dominated that game. I still think they will be a tough out in the playoffs because of the defense though.

10 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

It’s about one half hour since the game ended and ESPN is reporting the score as 22-10 but does not include the final touchdown in the box score, game cast report, or play by play report. One would think the purported sports leader to possess a basic level of competence.

18 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

I would like to mention the crappy field conditions last night. It obviously sounds like a lame excuse, but I do think it played into the hands of the team with the more attritional offense. Chargers receivers were slipping about trying to make cuts all night.

It must be a huge relief for the NFL that the Chargers, barring miracles, will not now host a playoff game.

54 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Both teams were sliding all over the place, but mostly on offense, for some reason.

In general, I think bad fields are better for passing teams. If it's hard to cut when you know where you're going, it's got to be much harder to plant and change direction when you aren't prepared for it. Despite that, the Ravens still played agressive on the receivers. It was gutsy, and impressive that they didn't get burned on big passes.

20 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

rest of picks

Clots 34, Gaints 24
Dolphins 23, Jaguars 17
Falcons 27, pamnthers 20
Browns 31, Bengals 27
Cowbiys 24, VBuccaneers 20
Vikings 30, Loins 17
Packers 27, Jets 20
Patriots 40, Bills 17
Texans 32, Eagles 23
Rams 27, Cardnals 9
Bears 33, 49esr 18
Saints 38, Steelers 24
Seahawks 29, Cgiefs 24
Raiders 44, Broncos 10

28 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Different coach, different opposing QB, and the Lions still lay an LOL when defending a Hail Mary.

30 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

I know fantasy implications aren’t talked a lot here, but Gronk is costing me a fantasy championship before my very eyes. To be honest I’m not sure how my team is in the finals but here we are.

31 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

The Jags have managed the impressive achievement of working their way into a 4th and 46.

32 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

2017 Eagles: doing gods work beating the pats in sb
2018 Eagles: doing satans work giving pats a bye

37 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Packers score a TD to go up by 1, but the two-point attempt is run back the other way... But there's a penalty. Too bad, that would be an incredible way for a game to be decided. Even better would be if the Packers then recovered the onside kick and went on to win the game anyway.

38 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

This Jets-Packers game is pretty great for a contest between two teams well outside of playoff contention.

39 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Texans WRs are cursed. Ironman Demaryius Thomas tore his achilles on a non-contact play.

40 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Steelers have abandoned the run entirely this second half, and hey presto! Marching up and down the field.

41 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Tomlin calls for a fake punt with 4 minutes left and a 4 point lead. Steelers end up a yard short.

Romo loves the "guts" of the play call.

I can see loving the play call for the entertainment value. But it's a terrible decision.

42 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Am I hallucinating, or did Pittsburgh clearly tip that ball? And no booth review.

51 Re: Week 16 Open Game Discussion

Just thinking, how awesome would it have been to see this Chiefs offence against the 2014 Seahawks?