Divisional Round Open Game Discussion

Picks are in:

Clots at Chefs: 35-42. Mahomes turn the tide for KC.
Cowbous at Mars: 20-28. The defensive MVP will abuse Cowbous OL.
Chargees at Pates: do not compute. I watched highlights of last year's bout and it was more close than I remembered. It will be something like the NE-KC divisional in 2015.
Eags at Sanities: 17-35. Come on. For the n-th time, let's say together: Foles PO's run is unsustainable.

KC - 30 IND - 27

LAR - 30 DAL - 20

NE - 24 LAC - 14

NO - 31 PHI - 28

Chefs 28 Clots 24
Ramps 35 Cowgrlls 13
Chargees 31 Parts 21
Stints 38 Eagers 18

KC - 35 IND - 38
LAR - 24 DAL - 17
NE - 28 LAC - 30
NO - 24 PHI - 17

My picks are:
IND over KC (I'm pulling for the team that has an actual defense and an experienced QB. Yes, Mahomes is amazingly good, and he'll probably make me sorry)
LAR over DAL (Seems like a no brainer at this point)
NE over LAC (I had to give NE the edge after some thought)
NO over PHI (Nope, no kind of miracle against the Saints this year)

When was the last time that all four home teams won in the divisional round? Was it 2004? This year it's hard to pick an upset. The NFC's top seeds seem more fragile, but so do their opponents.

The opportunity for a rematch of this year's superbowl in the next regular season is already very low. With both North divisions out of the playoffs, it's down to the Pats vs one of the NFC East teams or the Saints vs the Colts. Those have to be among the least likely superbowl pairings. It means we'll only get rematches of 24 previous superbowls in the 2019 season, a fraction below the 2015 offering in percentage terms.

Clots 24, Chefs 35
Cowboize 10, Rama 33
Chargees 34, Pates 22
Eags 20, Saint's 42

Pickz

Cloys 33, Chiefs 27
Rams 27, Cowbosy 19
Pates 30, Chargers 20
Saints 31, Eaglea 24

Not surprisinf if all these are wrong. Chiefs vs clota should be close.

So if you're Andy Reid and win the coin toss, do you buck the common wisdom and elect to receive, try to get the early lead and hope that your defense can do enough to hold on in a shootout?

no one's taken the Cows (and I won't either), which strikes me as odd. Rams seem particularly vulnerable (and especially to the strengths of this opponent), so, while I wouldn't be shocked for the home team to figure it out and win by 20+, I can easily see an upset. Gut feeling says the Colts win (though I'd rather be wrong (Mahomes is more fun to watch than peak-Rodgers). Colts seem fundamentally sound, and better on the lines (though the tissue soft schedule gives me pause) , and maybe better-coached. Hope I'm wrong

KC - 34 IND - 27

LAR - 30 DAL - 20

LAC - 27 NE - 24

NO - 34 PHI - 24

Colts go three and out, and the chiefs score pretty easily. Now Colts have another three and out..

1st Luck batted pass: KC lineman gets away with hands to the face. One of the most inconsistently called penalties in the league. Line play must be really tough to see at field level.

Mahomes takes a jog to his right, looks downfield, then tosses to his left to Hill for a 1st down. Yeah, he's a run-first quarterback.

Hope I'm wrong but this has the look of becoming uninteresting really quickly

Chiefs after 1Qtr 14-0 11 first downs and 2 for 2 on 4th down, 112 yards to Colts -3 yards

Mahomes slides out of pressure again, runs forward, looks right, then throws another cross-body strike to Kelce for a 1st down. Yeah, he's just another run-first guy who will be exposed in the playoffs, according to one payaso.

Colts should maybe consider going for this 4th down. Yes, it's early and you are on your own side of the field, but you are already down by 17 and are clearly going to need to score a lot of points to win this. Plus it's short yardage.

Blocked punt for a TD? Special teams aren't supposed to let opponents back into games.

It's ridiculous how the Chiefs always get someone open.

I wish the TV coverage would show how the Chiefs receivers are getting so wide open. Seeing a QB making throws that I could apparently make is BOOORING!

Colts just doubled their yardage on that play

Colts moved the ball welll on this last drive. Where was this offense earlier?
And the FG missed! So much for that drive

On the replay, it appeared as if the holder had the ball spotted almost on his own foot. Did anyone else see that? Or is that how Vinatieri likes it?

Has NBC's coverage always been this bad? They're making the KC offense basically unwatchable

OMFG the Key & Pelle thing literally just happened! I don't know how to feel about this…
https://youtu.be/RGJb2iLvOKE

That may have been the stupidest penalty I've seen in a while. Why exactly do you go up to the referee to feign a lap dance?

SEC schedules in November are an insult to the game.

The Colts OL isn't living up to recent accolades so far.

It will be fascinating to see what the DVOA result is for the KC D if they continue to pitch this shutout.

Sorry, Collinsworth, that was not DPI on the pass to Ebron.

Wow. Two missed kick by Vinatieri.

What's Andrew Luck's record in cold weather games?

What got into the Colts Offense there? How the heck they suddenly turned into a pumpkin?

Ok, if the Cowboys are hoping they can win this game, they need to do something rare and find a way to limit the Rams runs consistently. Gurley is basically on a Mack truck and going through them. And C.J. Anderson is on a SUV for when he spells Gurley.

Wow, the Coliseum is LOUD.

What do you think of going for it on 4th and 1 Troy?
...
I don’t like it.

What a putz

Heh. A guy in the front row appears to be wearing a Rams #7 Kaepernick jersey. That's a pretty cool idea

Rams steamrolling cowboys with the run game

Fun sequence where the definitely not tackled Prescott escaped a sack and ran into the officials whistling to end the play.

That's the first time I've ever seen an 'in the grasp' call when the defense doesn't even have a hand on the QB.

Why not trying a Hail Mary? Why coaches elect the 60+ yards FG? Zuerlein has a big leg, but why?

The Rams being held to field goals a few times is the only thing allowing the Cowboys to retain a small foothold in this game.

How is that spotted at the 2?

Cowboys make it an 8 point game. This got interesting!

WHY!? Either run a play or punt the ball! Hekker is accurate enough to punt from there.

Rams have been past midfield on every drive and have no turnovers, but this game could be tied after this drive.

Cowboys ran into a wall on 4th down (I don't get why you move your lead blocker and put him as a wing when you run up the middle). And Elliot got the ball ripped out of him about 4 seconds after he stopped moving.

What's the point of trying to draw the defense offsides on the goal-line? To turn a 1 yard attempt in a 1/2 yard attempt?

You should go for two now rather than wait, although with this amount of time left on the clock it doesn't matter much.

Well that more than makes up for the in-the-grasp call from earlier.

Are you saying that wasn't pass interference?

surprises:
1) For Indy's front line to "handle" Houston's D line so well THEN look
inept against KC-Luck had zero time
2) I knew Mahomes would make some rookie mistakes (throws I couldn't
believe he tried) but he played his first playoff game better than I
expected..I *still* think he'll make a ton of mistakes in AFC championship
round (if they blitz him/pressure him more) (NE will/Chargers might not)
3) KC front line held up well
4) Rams ran more than expected
5) Rams D played fair, thought they would've held 'boys to less points, especially
wi/Phillips-revenge factor

It really feels like we are now well past the tipping point w.r.t. coaches going for it on 4th down in the most obvious situations. Previously conservative decision makers like Reid and Garrett are now doing it as a matter of course, with little opposition from announcers/pundits (save for numbskulls like Aikman).

In actual fact, I've noticed Reid being almost too aggressive at times recently, shunning the (virtually) guaranteed points from kicking when his team already has a commanding lead, and low-variance would appear to be the smart play. Still, his approach is certainly consistent with the strengths/weaknesses of his team, so I cannot be too critical.

The next frontier will surely be coaches going for it on 4th & short on their own side of the field. Also, more thought/creativity being put into 3rd down play-calling, knowing that a 4th down attempt is a given. A run on 3rd and medium against a defense expecting ~100% pass could be highly effective, but is still seldom seen.

Pats by 7, New Orleans by 21

Watching the Chiefs play with a lead in the 4th quarter is near heart attack-provoking. If Reid had ever taken a course in game theory, probability and statistics, history would have been altered over the past 20 years. Snapping the ball with 12 seconds left on the play clock up 17 with 9 minutes to go is ridiculous. Hard to believe none of his star protegees ever suggested offhand this shortcoming. The style of maintaining an attack with a big lead has its merits but bleeding the clock is paramount. The inverse effect is what happened during both of his losses to BB in the postseason: consuming too much clock on the drive to get the first TD while down two scores. In the superbowl BB called up to his assistants to make sure the scoreboard was correct that they were in fact up 10 points and not the opposite during the Eagles long scoring drive.

Bradley better switch to man or this could get ugly in a hurry

Pats with a great opening drive, 14 plays, more than 7 minutes

Philip Rivers is on a mission today. Go Bolts

Duplicate

Chargers craptastical defensive plan thus far

How did the NFL "decide" the Chargers would have the two consecutive 10 am body clock games?

FFS. Great defensivegame plan so far, LA.

Chargers looking like paper tigers once again. Rivers already crying for flags and their coaches look completely overmatched.

Pats: 4 drives , 4tds. This is a blowout

Charger's still can't get the snap off in time in the late 2nd.

And yet another playoff game that looks to be determined by dominant line play. Sensing a theme here...

A 3rd down stop not negated by a flag. And then they muff the punt. Amazing

Can't believe I woke up early for this shit

Rivers is really mad. He's getting pummeled and he wants ghost flags apparently.

Patriots almost have more points in a single half than they have had in an entire game this season. Now I wish the Ravens had won last week because their excellent defense would obviously do much better than this.

Phillip can't seem to avoid delay of games. Lynn had to bail him out of that one.

Shouldn't the Chargers have gone for 2? 31 points is not necessarily a 5 score lead, unless you keep kicking the XP. I mean the odds of it becoming relevant are extremely slim, but still,how do you not go for 2?

I haven't watched that many games this year, I confess. For those who have watched this LA team, were the Chargers legitimately overrated? Their defense was a zone scheme in the regular season and poorly suited in a matchup with NE, but is this seriously the best they can do? This game has been a joke, and I know NE is not this good...

Belichick grinnin' like a possum eating a sweet potato.

Wild-ass theory: Gus Bradley stuck with the 7 DB defense because he expected that the Pates expected him to come up with something new, so he tried to fool them by not doing anything new!

Other than the 11-5 Cassel campaign, and the two seasons where the Sanchise making the postseason coincided with a semi-functional Gailey offense flirting with 7-9, the AFC east has pretty much been a turnstile to a first round bye for the only competent team. But also more important has been the pollination of ineptitude from the Belichick coaching tree throughout the league, which has increased NE's competetive advantage at the conference level. The lower football IQ owners have done themselves a disservice with the tree-plucking and it doesn't appear to be slowing down. If only they could have figured out a way to lure Ernie Adams ...