Your weekend viewing plans (all times Eastern): SATURDAY: Indianapolis at Kansas City, 4:35 p.m.; Dallas at L.A. Rams, 8:15 p.m. SUNDAY: L.A. Chargers at New England, 1:05 p.m.; Philadelphia at New Orleans, 4:40 p.m. Win or go home. Use this thread to discuss them all.
Picks are in:
Clots at Chefs: 35-42. Mahomes turn the tide for KC.
Cowbous at Mars: 20-28. The defensive MVP will abuse Cowbous OL.
Chargees at Pates: do not compute. I watched highlights of last year's bout and it was more close than I remembered. It will be something like the NE-KC divisional in 2015.
Eags at Sanities: 17-35. Come on. For the n-th time, let's say together: Foles PO's run is unsustainable.
I’d be in favor of sending the Cowboys to Mars
Foles kept it up for an entire season in 2013.
KC - 30 IND - 27
LAR - 30 DAL - 20
NE - 24 LAC - 14
NO - 31 PHI - 28
Chefs 28 Clots 24
Ramps 35 Cowgrlls 13
Chargees 31 Parts 21
Stints 38 Eagers 18
Chefs—Clots a Raider Joe best matchup. Too bad the Loins are sitting these playoffs out.
KC - 35 IND - 38
LAR - 24 DAL - 17
NE - 28 LAC - 30
NO - 24 PHI - 17
My picks are:
IND over KC (I'm pulling for the team that has an actual defense and an experienced QB. Yes, Mahomes is amazingly good, and he'll probably make me sorry)
LAR over DAL (Seems like a no brainer at this point)
NE over LAC (I had to give NE the edge after some thought)
NO over PHI (Nope, no kind of miracle against the Saints this year)
When was the last time that all four home teams won in the divisional round? Was it 2004? This year it's hard to pick an upset. The NFC's top seeds seem more fragile, but so do their opponents.
The opportunity for a rematch of this year's superbowl in the next regular season is already very low. With both North divisions out of the playoffs, it's down to the Pats vs one of the NFC East teams or the Saints vs the Colts. Those have to be among the least likely superbowl pairings. It means we'll only get rematches of 24 previous superbowls in the 2019 season, a fraction below the 2015 offering in percentage terms.
I think the pick for a home team to be upset would obviously be the Patriots. They are the one that's actually inferior to the opposition, even if being at home means they are still favorites. Chiefs are moderately better than the Colts, while the NFC home teams are way ahead of their mediocre opposition. But, in a single game elimination tournament, anything can happen. We could have Colts-Cowboys in the Super Bowl.
There was a home sweep in 2015. Broncos over Steelers, Patriots over Chiefs, Panthers over Seahawks, and the insane Cardinals over Packers OT game.
Clots 24, Chefs 35
Cowboize 10, Rama 33
Chargees 34, Pates 22
Eags 20, Saint's 42
Pickz
Cloys 33, Chiefs 27
Rams 27, Cowbosy 19
Pates 30, Chargers 20
Saints 31, Eaglea 24
Not surprisinf if all these are wrong. Chiefs vs clota should be close.
Has an FO commenter ever predicted a correct final score?
I did at least one tiem. Then was off by one point one time
So if you're Andy Reid and win the coin toss, do you buck the common wisdom and elect to receive, try to get the early lead and hope that your defense can do enough to hold on in a shootout?
And I was wrong, but the Chiefs lead anyway.
no one's taken the Cows (and I won't either), which strikes me as odd. Rams seem particularly vulnerable (and especially to the strengths of this opponent), so, while I wouldn't be shocked for the home team to figure it out and win by 20+, I can easily see an upset. Gut feeling says the Colts win (though I'd rather be wrong (Mahomes is more fun to watch than peak-Rodgers). Colts seem fundamentally sound, and better on the lines (though the tissue soft schedule gives me pause) , and maybe better-coached. Hope I'm wrong
KC - 34 IND - 27
LAR - 30 DAL - 20
LAC - 27 NE - 24
NO - 34 PHI - 24
Colts go three and out, and the chiefs score pretty easily. Now Colts have another three and out..
1st Luck batted pass: KC lineman gets away with hands to the face. One of the most inconsistently called penalties in the league. Line play must be really tough to see at field level.
Mahomes takes a jog to his right, looks downfield, then tosses to his left to Hill for a 1st down. Yeah, he's a run-first quarterback.
Hope I'm wrong but this has the look of becoming uninteresting really quickly
Indy has come back on KC before
That was five years ago and is meaningless in terms of predicting what will happen in a game today. Also, it only happened because KC suffered a midgame injury apocalypse.
When Dwayne Bowe is your number 1 go to option at the end of the game, there has been a serious injury issue with your team. And he *still* almost made a great catch on a ball from Smith, just didn't get both feet down in bounds.
Chiefs after 1Qtr 14-0 11 first downs and 2 for 2 on 4th down, 112 yards to Colts -3 yards
Mahomes slides out of pressure again, runs forward, looks right, then throws another cross-body strike to Kelce for a 1st down. Yeah, he's just another run-first guy who will be exposed in the playoffs, according to one payaso.
Colts should maybe consider going for this 4th down. Yes, it's early and you are on your own side of the field, but you are already down by 17 and are clearly going to need to score a lot of points to win this. Plus it's short yardage.
I kind of agree with this but somehow the decision totally pays off.
Blocked punt for a TD? Special teams aren't supposed to let opponents back into games.
It's ridiculous how the Chiefs always get someone open.
I wish the TV coverage would show how the Chiefs receivers are getting so wide open. Seeing a QB making throws that I could apparently make is BOOORING!
I wonder, whatever happened to the Madden Cam? That's better than the standard angles they have shown since ever.
I'm waiting for the day the cable-cam starts being used to give us the classic video game look from the offensive backfield as the default.
Well, the networks are well aware that the majority of fans much prefer the Madden cam, but they don't do anything about it, so I'm not holding my breath.
Colts just doubled their yardage on that play
Colts moved the ball welll on this last drive. Where was this offense earlier?
And the FG missed! So much for that drive
On the replay, it appeared as if the holder had the ball spotted almost on his own foot. Did anyone else see that? Or is that how Vinatieri likes it?
It looked fine to me, as someone who has watched Vinatieri kick a lot.
That one was a super iffy hold, but even that one it seemed like Sanchez got it down.
That second missed kick was placed at least six inches further out than the first hold. I'm guessing Vinatieri was still thinking about that first placement.
Has NBC's coverage always been this bad? They're making the KC offense basically unwatchable
OMFG the Key & Pelle thing literally just happened! I don't know how to feel about this…
https://youtu.be/RGJb2iLvOKE
bwahahahahaha
That's amazing. Forgot about this.
That may have been the stupidest penalty I've seen in a while. Why exactly do you go up to the referee to feign a lap dance?
SEC schedules in November are an insult to the game.
I thought he offering to twerk the ref.
I'm not totally sure why that's a penalty but yeah that's a terrible place to do it.
NFL public image rules.
Pubic image rules?
I assume it was because he did it "at" the ref from right next to him.
The Colts OL isn't living up to recent accolades so far.
I was bullish on Jones impact in this game and he has been a force.
On the other side the Colts twin 1techs are no match for the technical prowess of KCs OL and the LBs are totally getting washed out of the plays.
I think the Colts' biggest successes, like many teams (Rams and Saints also IMO), were so tied to playing poor teams but they just don't have the horses to play with teams like KC. Maybe only the Chargers do or if the Saints/Rams clean things up.
I was referring to the Colts OL not being as beastly as they appeared the past two weeks.
Sure, lotta hype in today's world. Read too much and we get convinced.
The Chiefs have some good pass rushers. They had a bye week, then almost nothing to do in the first half tonight, so were clearly rested and fresh when called upon in the second half.
I'm harder pressed to explain why the Colts were unable to run the ball early. But they ran so few plays in the first half it is impossible to draw conclusions. Luck was a little off all night. Possibly the weather.
There were several plays where they had the frontside blocked but someone leaked from the backside and made the play. Otherwise I have no clue.
It will be fascinating to see what the DVOA result is for the KC D if they continue to pitch this shutout.
Sorry, Collinsworth, that was not DPI on the pass to Ebron.
Absolutely right, and Collinsworth’s mistake was very typical and annoying: announcers assume that turning one’s back to the passer must be PI even if the defender does not hit the receiver prior to the ball arriving. It’s laziness.
Wow. Two missed kick by Vinatieri.
What's Andrew Luck's record in cold weather games?
He has seemed super uncomfortable all game and I'm not sure why exactly.
What got into the Colts Offense there? How the heck they suddenly turned into a pumpkin?
Ok, if the Cowboys are hoping they can win this game, they need to do something rare and find a way to limit the Rams runs consistently. Gurley is basically on a Mack truck and going through them. And C.J. Anderson is on a SUV for when he spells Gurley.
Wow, the Coliseum is LOUD.
What do you think of going for it on 4th and 1 Troy?
...
I don’t like it.
What a putz
It was the decisiveness with which he stated it that was hilarious. Normally you'd expect "I don't know about this call Joe, it's awful early in the game, blah blah". But here he flat out rubbished it, then seconds later, wham!, Elliot up the middle for 5 yards. Poetic.
I actually laughed out loud at the whole thing. He’s the John Fox of commentating. Or maybe even the Jeff Fisher.
Heh. A guy in the front row appears to be wearing a Rams #7 Kaepernick jersey. That's a pretty cool idea
Rams steamrolling cowboys with the run game
Fun sequence where the definitely not tackled Prescott escaped a sack and ran into the officials whistling to end the play.
That's the first time I've ever seen an 'in the grasp' call when the defense doesn't even have a hand on the QB.
Why not trying a Hail Mary? Why coaches elect the 60+ yards FG? Zuerlein has a big leg, but why?
The Rams being held to field goals a few times is the only thing allowing the Cowboys to retain a small foothold in this game.
How is that spotted at the 2?
Cowboys make it an 8 point game. This got interesting!
WHY!? Either run a play or punt the ball! Hekker is accurate enough to punt from there.
Rams have been past midfield on every drive and have no turnovers, but this game could be tied after this drive.
Cowboys ran into a wall on 4th down (I don't get why you move your lead blocker and put him as a wing when you run up the middle). And Elliot got the ball ripped out of him about 4 seconds after he stopped moving.
What's the point of trying to draw the defense offsides on the goal-line? To turn a 1 yard attempt in a 1/2 yard attempt?
I will half heartedly try to defend that, since I hate it too. They did burn some clock. Still, run a play with 01 in the play clock, please.
You should go for two now rather than wait, although with this amount of time left on the clock it doesn't matter much.
You would think that would be obvious, but apparently not.
It's going to take a while for coaches to learn that I think.
love that Pederson went for 2 when they cut it from 14 to 8 earlier this year (minnesota game), but I don't think they'll ever "learn" this one- they want to give their team the illusion that they're still in the game for as long as possible if their only goal is to tie the game, not to win in regulation
Missing the 2 point play, be it before the 2:11 or with 30 seconds on the clock, near ends the game. Both mean you have to somehow, someway pull off 2 drives, 1 a TD, 1 a FG at least. Doing it with 2:11 means you need 2 stops (Well, a stop and an onside kick, with so limited time and no timeouts means that the opponent just kneels). Doing it with 30 seconds means you NEED the onside kick. Both require a drive in a 20-30 second span (You still need to score if you go for 2 at 2:11 and miss right? That will burn clock), nigh impossible. If there were 4 or more mins in the clock, sure go for 2. With so limited time, might as well make the 2 point play the last play and don't have to rely on miracles before you really need them at all.
Tend to agree. With that little time left I have to believe that delaying the 2 pt conversion makes so little difference to win probability as to be negligible. OTOH, I'm fairly certain that Garrett would have done the same had there been 5 mins remaining.
Well that more than makes up for the in-the-grasp call from earlier.
Are you saying that wasn't pass interference?
I didn't think so at first, but I guess it could go either way. We only have Aikman's word that the ball had already been thrown
It was really iffy (and I was rooting for Dallas)
surprises:
1) For Indy's front line to "handle" Houston's D line so well THEN look
inept against KC-Luck had zero time
2) I knew Mahomes would make some rookie mistakes (throws I couldn't
believe he tried) but he played his first playoff game better than I
expected..I *still* think he'll make a ton of mistakes in AFC championship
round (if they blitz him/pressure him more) (NE will/Chargers might not)
3) KC front line held up well
4) Rams ran more than expected
5) Rams D played fair, thought they would've held 'boys to less points, especially
wi/Phillips-revenge factor
If you are surprised that the soon-to-be MVP of the league, in command of one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history, managed to make some plays and score some points against a mediocre defense, well then yeah, I'm not sure there's much that won't surprise you.
I'll grant you that the Colts overall ineffectiveness on offense was indeed a surprise. The reasons are no doubt multi-variable, but a well-rested group of pass rushers facing an QB/offense unaccustomed to operating outdoors in bad weather seems a decent place to start.
Either NE or winner or NO/Rams game *will* dbl-blitz the
A and/or B gaps & this MVP will evaporate into thin air.
Right now that'll be met by hoots & hollars but after the
game we might want to revisit.
I'll acknowledge being an idjit if I'm proven wrong.
He made a high # of throws in that game that will
cause a loss...its just that Indy's OL was inept for
some reason/so that they couldn't score plus
Indy didn't all out blitz him until late in the game/too late.
We shall see.
It really feels like we are now well past the tipping point w.r.t. coaches going for it on 4th down in the most obvious situations. Previously conservative decision makers like Reid and Garrett are now doing it as a matter of course, with little opposition from announcers/pundits (save for numbskulls like Aikman).
In actual fact, I've noticed Reid being almost too aggressive at times recently, shunning the (virtually) guaranteed points from kicking when his team already has a commanding lead, and low-variance would appear to be the smart play. Still, his approach is certainly consistent with the strengths/weaknesses of his team, so I cannot be too critical.
The next frontier will surely be coaches going for it on 4th & short on their own side of the field. Also, more thought/creativity being put into 3rd down play-calling, knowing that a 4th down attempt is a given. A run on 3rd and medium against a defense expecting ~100% pass could be highly effective, but is still seldom seen.
Kacsmar won’t like teams throwing short on 3rd down. That’s almost Smithian.
I get what you're saying, however they are really good at converting 4th downs, I think he should go for them as much as he wants.
Pats by 7, New Orleans by 21
Watching the Chiefs play with a lead in the 4th quarter is near heart attack-provoking. If Reid had ever taken a course in game theory, probability and statistics, history would have been altered over the past 20 years. Snapping the ball with 12 seconds left on the play clock up 17 with 9 minutes to go is ridiculous. Hard to believe none of his star protegees ever suggested offhand this shortcoming. The style of maintaining an attack with a big lead has its merits but bleeding the clock is paramount. The inverse effect is what happened during both of his losses to BB in the postseason: consuming too much clock on the drive to get the first TD while down two scores. In the superbowl BB called up to his assistants to make sure the scoreboard was correct that they were in fact up 10 points and not the opposite during the Eagles long scoring drive.
good points..eventually they (KC) will mismanage game, and have
some timely mental mistakes in crunch time will also exacerbate
the ineptitude....either in this game or SB, it *will* happen.
Bradley better switch to man or this could get ugly in a hurry
+1, and maybe anyway.
I can't watch this in real time, y'all are better men than me. Need a commercial buffer. Beer run.
Pats with a great opening drive, 14 plays, more than 7 minutes
And only one pass interference call to bail him out!
Philip Rivers is on a mission today. Go Bolts
So is Tre Flowers, he might be playing into the tag.
Duplicate
Chargers craptastical defensive plan thus far
How did the NFL "decide" the Chargers would have the two consecutive 10 am body clock games?
The Chargers "decided" by not winning enough to take the AFC West and get a top 2 seed.
If only they had planned ahead and made sure the refs called no penalties in games they would otherwise lose. Cheating just isn't for the playoffs. It's the Patriot Way. You have to cheat all year long.
So it was written at the beginning of the year that the 5 vs 4 seed would be the early Sunday game of wild card weekend?
Well, that's hardly fair. The Chargers had a better record than the Patriots, but were unfortunate enough to play in the same division as the Chiefs.
I'm fully on board with the idea that the AFC East has been nothing like as weak as is regularly perceived during the Patriots long period of domination. But this season it undoubtedly has, and the Patriots have been lucky to benefit from it.
If you're a professional athlete you should be ready to go at 10am.
FFS. Great defensivegame plan so far, LA.
Uhh... They're just letting the Patriots to score a lot now and tire themselves out.
Chargers looking like paper tigers once again. Rivers already crying for flags and their coaches look completely overmatched.
Pats: 4 drives , 4tds. This is a blowout
Charger's still can't get the snap off in time in the late 2nd.
And yet another playoff game that looks to be determined by dominant line play. Sensing a theme here...
A 3rd down stop not negated by a flag. And then they muff the punt. Amazing
Can't believe I woke up early for this shit
Rivers is really mad. He's getting pummeled and he wants ghost flags apparently.
Patriots almost have more points in a single half than they have had in an entire game this season. Now I wish the Ravens had won last week because their excellent defense would obviously do much better than this.
Maybe. On the other hand, last time the Ravens played the Patriots in the playoffs, John Harbaugh got outcoached so bad he was left sputtering in impotent rage on the sidelines, so the outcome might not have been that different.
No, last time they played in the playoffs the top seeded Patriots, at home, with an extra week of rest, barely squeaked out a win over a wild card team. Not that games from four years ago should be used to assess how a potential game this year would go.
Phillip can't seem to avoid delay of games. Lynn had to bail him out of that one.
Shouldn't the Chargers have gone for 2? 31 points is not necessarily a 5 score lead, unless you keep kicking the XP. I mean the odds of it becoming relevant are extremely slim, but still,how do you not go for 2?
I guess they don't give a damn at this point, or they just want the game to end.
I haven't watched that many games this year, I confess. For those who have watched this LA team, were the Chargers legitimately overrated? Their defense was a zone scheme in the regular season and poorly suited in a matchup with NE, but is this seriously the best they can do? This game has been a joke, and I know NE is not this good...
I thought the C's definitely earned their DVOA rating.
I think this is like the Seattle-Denver Super Bowl, a strong team simply playing at their absolute worst.
Chargers have paper tiger embedded in their DNA
If the Chargers didn’t inexplicable choke games against inferior completion, they wouldn’t be the Chargers
Move again Dean. Maybe you can out run it.
"and I know NE is not this good..."
Man, if I had a nickel every time I heard that after the Pats won a playoff game...
You'd have about a nickel. The Patriots have been consistently great throughout the season for many years now. This was the first time in a long time they looked shaky enough in the regular season that there was serious doubt as to whether they were one of the strongest teams in the league.
I'd give Rick more than that. Maybe after the 2011 romp over Denver... the 2003 Championship game against Indy, perhaps the 2004 Divisional round win over Indy... even the 2001 Super Bowl. He might have a pocket with about 25 cents.
Maybe DVOA will feel that the Chargers' comeback in the second half shows Pats' shakiness, but otherwise, this felt like one of the most complete dismantlings the Patriots have ever inflicted on a postseason opponent. It was like the 2004 game against the Colts except with a lot more offense. It was far less close than the 2003 Championship game romp... maybe a bit like the 2004 championship game against the Steelers? It felt like a game between a championship caliber NE team and a puffed up phony of a Los Angeles team, and what makes that so surprising is this has felt all season to me like the weakest NE team since 2008. Meanwhile, I was under the impression that this was one of the finest Chargers squads since 2010 or so.
2014 AFCC was a stomping
And no one though the Pats "weren't that good" afterwards. I was trying to think of wins after which people were muddled or felt that the Pats performed a lot better than expectations.
In the 2003 AFC Championship game, the Pats dominated the Colts' offense but kicked a bunch of field goals and were meh on offense. I recall folks feeling that the offense would struggle in the Super Bowl, getting eaten alive by the Carolina defensive line, and that scheme had elevated defensive performance beyond their actual strength. There were similar feelings after the 2001 Super Bowl.
The 2011 Denver Game was a Madden-like offensive explosion, and I recall most people feeling that Denver was just playing over its head and NE wasn't nearly as good as they looked in that game. Might have been true--they squeaked over Baltimore the following week and then lost the Super Bowl.
etc.
They lost in the 2012 SB largely because Gronk could barely walk, Welker had a knee injury and Vollmer was very limited. That's football, of course, but when healthy the two TE offense was terrifying (and not just because one of the TE's was Hernandez).
In 2002, the Pats were, understandably, dismissed by pretty much everyone.
Few expected them to get past the 15-1 Steelers either in 2004 (?). I've never seen a 14-2 team more dismissed.
Hi Paddy, Charger fan here. Sorry for the late reply.
I made a post in the AFC Preview thread, last one I believe, that explained why we should expect a NE victory. Knowledgeable LAC fans I spoke to forsaw the same issues. I didn't expect it to get ugly, but said it could, wasn't surprised. (And I didn't see any way we could expect to pull it out.)
As to the defensive collapse, last week they were flying to the ball but the D was sleep walking today - that wasn't the same unit that dropped BAL's Edwards on contact the week before. They've been running on guts and nerves for the last four weeks against bruising opponents. Mental and physical fatigue, not helped by early Offensve outs.
I need to re-watch the game. We were stopping the run well enough early but not the short passes. That Seahawks-style defense limited KC and PIT screen/short game well enough for us to win, but NE and esp. Edelman killed us. We should have adjusted maybe, but coming up aggressively and tackling was missing. Missed tackles, penalties on 3rd, offensive 3 and outs then it just snowballed and the guys were gassed.
Btw, I mentioned NE would probably win 7-8 of 10 with current conditions but would expect it to flip with both teams rested and healthy on a neutral field, and I still think so.
Belichick grinnin' like a possum eating a sweet potato.
Wild-ass theory: Gus Bradley stuck with the 7 DB defense because he expected that the Pates expected him to come up with something new, so he tried to fool them by not doing anything new!
Other than the 11-5 Cassel campaign, and the two seasons where the Sanchise making the postseason coincided with a semi-functional Gailey offense flirting with 7-9, the AFC east has pretty much been a turnstile to a first round bye for the only competent team. But also more important has been the pollination of ineptitude from the Belichick coaching tree throughout the league, which has increased NE's competetive advantage at the conference level. The lower football IQ owners have done themselves a disservice with the tree-plucking and it doesn't appear to be slowing down. If only they could have figured out a way to lure Ernie Adams ...
Before this season at least, the Pats had a better record against the rest of the league than the AFC East so...no.
Yep. A perfect example would be the Dolphins, who over the last ten (I think that was it) years have finished every year between 6 and 10 wins. Of course, that means they haven't had any great teams in that span, but they've also never been really terrible either. That's been the state of the AFC East for basically the entirety of this long Patriots run.
The Parcells era in Miami was a rare well-conceived attempt to break the hegemony (as were direct hires from the Parcells tree instead of the Belichick, e.g Payton, Coughlin, other conference though). But how a Casserly-Wolf consultancy could have turned up Maccagnan has hamstrung the Jets for five more years. Just when it appeared that Woody Johnson wasn't completely stabbing in the dark and listening to competent football minds ...
The jury may still be out on Beane in Buffalo but Ross appears to have little clue in Miami, so a divisional reset could be a long time coming.
Occasionally the other offenses in the AFC east have been content to hitchhike on the outerskirts of Erhardt-Perkins hell, but most of the time it's not even that creative. If Gase ever figures out how to handle a locker room his hybrid approach could make some waves, but it's doubtful. It may be a few more years until the Reid-Nagy-Pederson trees produce some more candidates with competent game management skills that the AFC east can import (not that they would necessarily or anything).
There will always be room on the Lions for Pats excreta.
In five seasons, Bill O'Brien's Texans have won the AFC South three times.
Both Melvins on the field distracted the Pats defense long enough for the Chargers to get a TD. Now you need 3 more TDs.
Ok, Brady being on the field confuses me. The Panthers did this, leaving Cam on the field during a blowout (Yes, they were losing, but still there was no reason to have Cam there) and he got pummeled play after play in a game that eventually broke the Panthers. Why is Brady, who is going to come out as a winner of this game, still on the field risking a hit? I mean, he's not going to get hit too much, because the Chargers don't blitz as much as the Steelers did against Cam, but why risk the old man?
He's not throwing any passes, is he?
Anytime you're on a football field you can get hit. In fact, a defensive player deliberately going after a star opponent in the late stages of a blowout loss doesn't sound too far fetched of a scenario at all.
Not everything Belichick does is right. For example, he's not aggressive enough on fourth down decisions. This seems like one of those times.
It's OK to let go of the anti-Belichick animus and notice that all Brady is doing is handing off the ball.
If you're going to be afraid of opponents making dead ball cheap shots, you might as well be afraid of walking across the parking lot.
"Not everything Belichick does is right."
Weird day to make that argument. But I guess the haters had to find something that Belichick was doing wrong.
A few years ago Belichick put in Matt Cassell with a large lead and he immediately threw a pick six.
Since then he's taken the attitude that he doesn't care about people second-guessing his QB choices at the end of the game. Brady has been in the NFL for 19 seasons and is exceptionally good at avoiding injury, especially if we remove passing plays from consideration.
LOL. Now, saying that Belichick is anything short of a perfect, omniscient being who's decision making can never be criticized means you have anti-Belichick bias. "Not everything Belichick does is right," isn't an argument, it's a fact, because, ya know, Belichick is a fallible human being, not the football coaching version of Jesus.
Leaving your star player in a game that has long been decided is dumb no matter who does is, because it is a decision that has no upside at all, but a potentially terrible downside.
"LOL Now saying that Belichick is anything short of a perfect, omniscient being whose decision making can never be criticized means you have anti-Belichick bias"
Did you forget where you are?
It’s funny that even on a site where the conversation is smarter than 99% of what’s out there, Pats fan-speak still comes out a lot.
And then there's that 1% who show up here every week grousing about the pro-Patriots conspiracy controlling the refs. Am I right?
No, I'm saying that, on a day when the Patriots clearly dominated a team that was supposed to beat them, that it's pretty pathetic to search so desperately for something to criticize that you have to settle on "doesn't bench his QB late in the game in a rout." This argument is advanced as manifestly true, even though there is neither any support for it, nor is any similar demand ever made of any other coach.
You repeatedly build straw men and try to ascribe them to me. I will thank you to only accuse me of saying things that I have actually said. This thing you do, where you construct an easily defeated straw man argument that I've never made - well, it's a childish way to discuss things.
I have not said Belichick is perfect, and now you've accused me of saying exactly that, twice. I can think Belichick isn't perfect without thinking that any criticism you make is accurate.
You may think that handing off a football in a late game situation is too risky for Tom Brady. Clearly everybody in the decision-making process disagrees with you. In my ~5 decades of watching the NFL, I have never seen a QB injured handing off the football. But hey, you think it's risky.
Brady doesn't come out in the playoffs (or really in the regular season, either). It's been this way forever.
I get that this is an analytics site, and from a numbers point of view it's not especially rational to have Brady in there in the second half of a game your up by 4 scores in - but lets not forget that there are actual human beings on the field and that leadership over the long term does actually matter. Your star, first ballot HOF QB on the field with the rest of team is a dramatic way of emphasizing that everyone in the organization is subordinate to winning the game in front of you, and it's a powerful message. Lots of people around football marvel at how the Patriots cobble together a roster without high draft picks year after year out of cast offs - stuff like this is part of how that's done. Hard to say whether it's a net benefit, the benefit and cost are both pretty marginal, but it's disingenuous to ignore the case BB would make for his choice.
What are the chances Bill Belichick has read Ender's Game? Somewhere north of 99%?
I was thinking about how every year at the beginning of training camp, he chews out Brady in front of everyone ("I could get a kid from Foxboro High who can make that throw" and etc.) and it always impresses the rookies who think "oh shit, anybody can be called out here." But I bet Belichick is deliberately getting double mileage out of the stunt: he's endearing Brady to the team, in a subtle way, the opposite of what Graff does to Ender.
I wonder if any of the "Belichick tree" guys do something similar.
Not sure about the leadership argument, sounds a little nebulous to me. My (speculative) explanation would be that somewhere along the line Belichick has gotten bored of having to decide when to pull Brady in blowouts, and having people second guessing and questioning him about it. So, together, they've simply decided Brady is staying in whatever. Even if it is occasionally sub-optimal, it means there is one less thing to worry about.
So, when the onside kick (Or something different, like instant 4th and 15) becomes relevant and dangerous again?
Unless Saints-Eagles is actually competitive, there might not be a Clutch Encounters for this week.
Drew freaking Brees. Is this going to be like the Chargers-Ravens game where Rivers threw a pick on the first play then nothing went right for San Die.... LA?
Probably.
God loves rubbing it into Rivers, Job-style.
Who else would choose to go to NC State, then stay in San Diego, and be karmicly tied to Drew Brees and Eli Manning?
I LOVE the idea of Rivers as Job.
Did Job have eight kids?
Linemen are going down for both sides.
Linemen are going down for both sides.
Eagles up 14-0
This is starting to look like last year's Steelers-Jaguars, except you could say the Saints are even more unprepared. Additionally, how you eat a delay of game penalty like that?
HAHAHA! All right, so Drew Brees fumbles, and I think Brandon Graham picks up the ball, but the official THINK he fumbled again (It doesn't look like he even got control) and the Saints recovered. If that stands, it's 1st and 10 for New Orleans.
Didn't stand, but like every fumble with something close to a recovery, it was hilarious.
Wait, when does the bye week end?
Foles has been incredible, but the Philly line dominance is unexpected, especially running the ball.
The Superdome exploded after Lattimore got that pick.
I had to work and missed the entire first half. What the #!*^¢! happened?
Brees connected with an Eagles defender on the first play from scrimmage, then everything went to hell after that. Seemed like the Saints were on bye week still.
Sorry, didn't read. Pats-Chargers. Well, Patriots were nearly unopposed through the whole game in offense. The Chargers couldn't get consistency, Rivers ate 2 delay of game penalties because he changed the protection scheme with 3 seconds on the play clock and he was hit on nearly every play. He was mad.
Thanks.
That Miami Miracle L could prove to be the difference maker. Hard to believe a team that flawed was only one win away from homefield throughout.
The Saints did the same thing the Steelers nearly did to them. Fake Punt Run. Difference is that it was 4th and inches instead of 4th and 5, and Taysum Hill (Hilariously athletic QB) is faster than Roosevelt Nix (Not nearly as athletic FB)
#cantguardmike
All right, didn't knew that you can pull down a defensive back that is going for the ball if you are falling down and don't get called for OPI.
Philly could have really used that wasted time out.
Which 2 seed has the better chance at an upset
Definitely the Rams. If New Orleans has another cold start and Rams get out to an early lead I can't see the New Orleans defense slowing them down in the same way they did Philadelphia. Also New England has looked beatable all year and I can't see them slowing down Mahomes on the road.
Ross just hires expat scout Marvin Hamlisch blah blah blah
I didn't realize that this was a "thing" .. a certain fanbase jumping through hoops to deny that their division has been a dysfunctional joke for two decades comprised of owners with next-to- zero football IQ. Smarter move would be to humbly accept the free first round bye that is gifted each year. A certain amount of intradivisional losses are unavoidable due to familiarity, boredom, lack of effort/ambition, incidental factors, etc but there is only one division in football on systematic failure mode.
I must say it's been a good year for the preseason projections. 8/12 teams predicted made the playoffs. Correct division winners for 4/8 divisions and 3/4 of the conference championship teams were picked correctly. I recall that New England and New Orleans had the highest preseason odds of making the Super bowl so it's still possible that FO has predicted the Super bowl matchup correctly.
If it isn't a NO/NE superbowl, we will be spared the high comedy of Payton's special ops machinations trying to mess with the Patriots' hotel reservations, like they did with the Colts, but this time in rival city Atlanta. Expect pictures of Ornstein to circulate around Foxborough ... "If you see this man around hotel or practices ..."
Most times we don't fully comprehend the times we live in.
We are living in a window of greatness yet emotions close
most eyes to it. Thats right, I'm talking NE.
Love 'em or hate 'em....8 straight AFC championship games.
Unprecedented!!
Question is, was it the coach or the QB? Perhaps a part of
both but even though its tiring to see the same team up
there (NE) for so long, its got to be respected.
Not bad for a 7th rd 2nd string Michigan QB eh? Most
amazing run I've seen (and I'm almost 70 yrs old).
Haters hate, but real true fans appreciate.
great post to discuss
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193 comments, Last at 18 Jan 2019, 5:50pm