Football Outsiders
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Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

By now, you've read everything we (and many others) have to say about Sunday's Super Bowl between the Rams and the Patriots. So now it's your turn -- use this thread to discuss the NFL's championship game.


122 comments, Last at 04 Feb 2019, 10:23am

1 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Goff plays exceptionally better against man2man than zone.
This, along with a great DL that can stop NE play action
(GOAT underrated play action faker) & a Rams run game
that *could* control the outcome of this game (by keeping
Brady on sidelines)...well, I think Rams will win but I'm
cheering for NE-just an amazing run we're living thru, to have
this much success in the FA day & age...they win by mentally
beating you. Brady demands you read the D like he reads them &
react accordingly...great receiving RB's....Bilicheck takes care of
NE defense by hiding alot of incompetence wi/exceptional DB's who
win the 1-on-1 wars + tremendous concepts re: rushing/blitzing.
Its a 1-2 pt spread for good reason :)

Rams 33-27

2 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Seems reasonable. I see it as a toss up, and make no predictions.

I never get the “keeping Brady on the sidelines” concept. Teams have alternating drives. Using a lot of clock reduces the drive count, which only helps if you’re the weaker team hoping for a lucky break. What helps is being able to play both fast and slow tempo with good efficiency. That can get you an extra drive through clock management near the end of each half.

Enjoy the game, folks. It should be a good one.

3 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

It's on Donald and Suh to win this game for the Rams, even if their tackle/sack totals aren't huge. It wouldn't be too smart to bet against Dante's Inferno (i know that makes no sense, but what the hell; it's the last game for 7 months) at this point, but it would be great to see Super Bowl MVP voters recognize an interior lineman.

I know, I know, I need to start using less exotic mushrooms in my Sunday morming omelettes......

4 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Two or all three ofbtheseguys must have good games for Rams to win- Fowler, Suh, Donald. Think they will so will pick Rams 26, Pates 23

Would be shocked if game isnt colse. Obviously, if thinking this eay, then can easily see Pates being tema tjhat does sonmethinf gerat at end of game and theu cluld be team winnijg 29 to 26 or somethinf.

Will possibly have soem sort of ramen soup today form health aisle in Stop & Shop.

8 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

It's the classic case of the better team (Rams) vs. the hotter team (Pats), and I have no idea who's going to win. But I always make a SB prediction, so I'll just go with the Vegas "prediction" and say:

Pats 30, Rams 27

12 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

"Must be a close good game no doubt."

Nah. We've had too many close Super Bowls recently. We're due for a blow out. (I'm sure that's how dice work, right?)

Pats 42 - Rams 4

(Donald wins MVP for his two safeties in a losing cause).

13 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

That'd be fun.
Actually think Fowler can have a really good game. He has been really good in the last few games I saw him play.

The only way to beat Brady is by changing your coverage a lot, change your game plan mid-game and never ever be predictable.
The Rams have Talib who can play any coverage... so this could turn out to be a rough game for Brady.

15 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

No idea what to expect in this one. My only “prediction” is the list of following general outcomes in decreasing order of probability:
1) tight LAR win
small gap
2) tight NE win
small gap
3) LAR blowout
big gap
4) NE blowout

16 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

I'm hoping for a good game, but don't care who wins. Tired of Patriots and Brady, but don't hate them like some folks do. Don't want Rams to win after Kroenke screwed over the city I've lived in for most of the last 31 years. I have a hard time believing the Pats will lose if it's close.

Pats 30 Rams 26

17 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

I see a Patriots blowout. They get off to a fast start, then coast. 38-23. God help the Rams if they win the toss and defer. 6 minutes later it will be 7-0.

19 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

I see 3 battles that will determine the outcome:

- will NE continue to dominate with their runblocking
- will LA get pressure on Brady early and consistently
- will Goff make the tough throws

Don't think it will a close game until either team goes 2019 pass-happy and then the leader will have a couple chances to ice things.

My gut says NE will win 2 or 3 of the 3 battles throughout and be up 10+ most of the game but in today's NFL a lot can happen in 10 minutes.

21 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Patriots 38, Rams 27, with the game a one-score affair until a very late Patriots FG to ice it.

23 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

So I see that their are no odds on the McCourty brothers sharing the MVP award

What are the chances the NFL capitalized on that

29 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

i see that new england is already getting bailed out by the refs, and the game barely just started

48 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

I hope Hot Wheels makes one of that Peanut van. I already have the Weinermobile in my collection…

49 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

If you're the 12th guy and you can't get off the field in time, you should just stay on the field and play defense at that point

51 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Brady off unless Edelman gets WIDE open, which is frequent.
Goff sucks, which has been more apparent as the season went on.

57 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Hekker’s punted 8 times already and just kicked the longest punt in Super Bowl history. Let’s say he throws a TD on a fake punt and the Rams eke out a win 7-6 or something like that...does he win MVP?

70 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

I guess we'll never know who would win in a fair game. All we know is that the Rams couldn't overcome all the bad calls. Between the non-holding call that ended one Rams drive, the uncalled PI on Cooks in the end zone, that's literally the difference in the game.

113 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

not on that play, but gilmore got away with PI when he grabbed cooks's arm.

this is a whole different game if the refs dont call holding on gurley's first down into new england territory with the game tied(replay showed it was bullshit and romo called them out on it), and of course the aforementioned gilmore play

71 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Completely disagree with the announcers and McVay. Take the yards and make it harder for the Pats to get a new series to end it.

83 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

I thought they said the penalty stopped the clock either way, but I don’t know the actual rule.

I would have taken the penalty and hoped to keep them out of FG range. Yes, you’re not likely to score a TD with 30 seconds left or whatever, but you have to have a better chance of that than of scoring a TD and a FG with a little over a minute left.

74 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

I know he tailed off some toward the end of the season, but I have to think a seasoned, future HoF QB like Brees would've put up more than three points.

118 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

That NFC title game is going to haunt the NFL for the entire off-season. I personally though NE was going to slaughter LA, I'm shocked it was as close as it was. As much as I hate them credit where it's due, no NFL coach has ever worked with what he has as well as the Hooded Menace does. This was not a team that looked like a SB winner a lot of the time yet here they are again.

77 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

I believe the non call in the nfc championship was intentional, so the NFL could get rams in the SB and send Brady/Belichick/Gronk off into thr sunset with anothet title.

86 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Okay, am I the only one underwhelmed by that game? Didn't feel like a defense-dominated one, more like one team's QB was not very good and the other just kept petering out.

87 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Couple comments on the game:
Why did gurley only get 11 touches? Injured? He was effective on some runs.
If the pats pass rush was too much, the rams should have gone max protect.
Where were the rams tight ends? Only 1 target!
The rams really missed cooper kupp. He could have bailed them out with short passes when the pass rush was coming.

88 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

It may sound strange, but McVay's perfotmance may be underrated to date, in that he has so successfully concealed Goff's weaknesses. If anybody was going to fully illuminate them, of course, it was likely to be The Dark Lord.

101 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

I dunno, they adjusted enough to have a wide open receiver in the end zone, late in a tight game, and the qb threw the ball two seconds late. I said a week ago that Goff would get so confused that it would be a boring game. I was right.

102 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

This was interesting to me; The Pats played zone-blitz to take away the hot routes and force the issue with 1-1 down the field on several receivers and not only did Goff not find open guys, he didn't even try to heave up 50-50 balls deep down the field and force the defense to make a play. On a related note - how awful was the last Rams drive with several completions in the middle of the field for <15 yards. Not sure where to lay the blame for that, but seriously?

109 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

If you watched a replay that had the jerseys masked, and had to guess which team was which based on the defense winning at the LOS, you would assume the teams were flipped.
Oh that must be Suh and Donald winning at the LOS... instead it was the pats D. Goff eventually kinda figured it out. But way too late.

94 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Oh, come on. It was 3 to 5 plays and out on nearly every drive for the Rams, until deep into the 2nd half, and the Pats were still sitting on 3 points. This was a masterful performance, that will now be completely forgotten.

96 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

This is right - the Rams got a missed FG and an unforced INT to take points off the board, as well as a slew of great kicks to recover field position to make it look a lot better than it was. Obviously neither team was good on offense, but the Pats running game was definitely the most dangerous offensive group on the field.

105 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion

Rams defense was amazing. The Patriots had spotty success running the ball, which is a win for the D (the running game is only a win for the O if it has consistent success), and basically failed completely in the passing game any time that Edelman wasn't able to get open. The passes to the RB's, a staple of NE's game this season, was completely taken away. The CB's, for the most part (except for the slot corner on Edelman) were lights out.

Patriots D was even better. It started at the LOS. For all the talk about Goff being bad, he constantly had NE defenders in his face. Stunts and twists to get pressure, and taking away the hot routes so the stunts and twists had time to get home. Plus some amazing man to man play in the secondary.

It's tempting to see low scoring and say the offense were bad, but this was a case of an awesome defensive grindfest.

If I'm going to fault the offenses, it was the playcalling. For most of the game, the Rams ran on 1st down, got minimal gain, and then stalled out when they had to pass. The few times the passed on 1st, they had much more success. They should have opened it up a lot more.

The Pats playcalling issue was on 3rd down. I think I counted something like 5 third and shorts (and one 4th and short) where they came out shotgun, empty backfield, with five "WR's" (yes, technically, it was usually 11 personel with both Gronk and White split out wide). This is playing into the strength of the Rams D. We know they have had struggles defending power runs or other plays out of 21 personnel. Where were the Patriots vaunted 2-back formations? And several of those 3rd and shorts were in the "maroon zone" where you might go for it on 4th and short... Don't pass the ball on 3rd and 4 and then punt when it's incomplete... run the ball on 3rd and 4 and if you end up in 4th and 1, go for it! I guess the strategy was to make the Rams work the whole length of the field, and I guess it worked, but that approach was one bounce of the ball or late CB in the end zone away from working.

121 Re: Super Bowl LIII Open Discussion


1) Brady's football IQ is beyond anything I've ever seen
2) Brady's WR's are so "in tune" wi/seeing what he sees (D's)
that they mentally beat the DB's/DC's (def coordinators) 9 out of 10 throws....amazing
3) I was surprised Pats ran so well-thought Rams DL would thwart that
4) Rams D was tired at end of game, too many 3 & outs by O-caught up
with them
5) Belichick devises D's that hide so many inadequacies its unimaginable....very
ordinary DL/LB's...yet Goff had alot of pressure on him, all night.
6) Suh/Donald/Fowler were just marginal, all night-surprising
7) Both teams corners played exceptionally well in a big game
8) When I was growing up, George Blanda was a "phenomenon" by playing
in the league over 40....he never even conceived on the level of play
Brady has given us, in his 40's. Ig uess 40 is the new 30.

Net net, we're living in an age that'll *never* be seen again....8 straight
conference championships....6 SB's....a QB/OC (offense) & HC (Def) that
are PhD's in their respective fields. Hate 'em or love 'em, the NE Pats
are the best organization ever (and I was rooting for the Rams!!)