Football Outsiders
Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Week 1 Open Discussion Thread

Yay! Football! It starts tonight with Green Bay at Chicago. Other prime-time games this week include Pittsburgh at New England on Sunday night, then Houston at New Orleans AND Denver at Oakland in a Monday night double-header. Use this thread to discuss them all, and the rest of Sunday's action!


163 comments, Last at 12 Sep 2019, 8:51pm

105 Recentcy Bias

I watched about half this game - I saw a few decent plays from Allen but nothing worth getting excited about. Singletary was dominant as was the offensive line in the 4th quarter - that's something I didn't expect. If they play like that the Bills have a chance to win 10 games.

106 The defense is legit,…

In reply to by sbond101

The defense is legit, offense is competent and so is the coaching, easy schedule...they should be in the mix for wildcard

99 "Josh Allen looks several…

"Josh Allen looks several orders of magnitude better this year, and devin singletary was amazing"

Singletary did look good, but only after Mosley left and those were some huge holes that were opened for him. I'm a big Bills fan too, and Josh did look better, but I'm still cautious with placing faith in Trash Allen and I think you would be wise to as well.

90 Bills lose the turnover…

Bills lose the turnover battle 4-0 but win the game. It's actually crazier than that since they gave up a safety, which essentially functions as a 5th turnover.

97 Also, gotta love the FO…

Also, gotta love the FO skepticism on the Browns, who got blown out by TENNESSEE at HOME in one of the most undisciplined, sloppy performances ever. I don't know how they quantified overconfidence as the Browns' Achilles heel, but that absolutely was a big problem contributing to this loss. This was not the right head coach for this team, and with all these volatile personalities, it get could ugly quick.

100 gameday chat

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102 Early thoughts...

1. Gurley looks pretty healthy.

2. Sammy Watkins has picked things up in KC.

2a. Couldn't help laughing at Fox trying to hype DAL-NYG.

3. Kerryon Johnson looks healthy.

4. Liking TJ Hockenson so far.

103 The Giants are every bit as…

The Giants are every bit as pathetic as anticipated. Barkley broke an early run, but otherwise it's the usual steady diet of Eli dumpoffs and failed completions. And Dak Prescott is doing as he pleases against a defense built to stop the run. Fun times.

107 I'm really liking the…

I'm really liking the ability to challenge PI so far...hasn't been overdone by the coaches, one bad call did get overturned. We will see for this Seahawks challenge

108 I don't wish to alarm anyone…

I don't wish to alarm anyone, but Devin Funchess just did something good.

(specifically, caught a well-covered pass for a 1st on 4th down, then dragged the CB about 5 yards upfield and out of bounds)

UPDATE: And now he's hurt.

109 TJ Hockenson is the star of…

TJ Hockenson is the star of the game for the Lions today.

On the other hand, the O-line has looked pretty ragged.

111 The Colts hadn't looked…

The Colts hadn't looked terribly impressive, but were at least able to keep the Chargers from blowing the game open on the several occasions that they threatened to do so. And just now they staged a pretty impressive drive (aided by Funchess' aforementioned good-doing), capped with a 2-pt. conversion right up the gut by Mack. The Chargers will have a chance to drive for a GW FG, but it's been a very solid performance by a team essentially starting its backup QB against a tough opponent on the road.


UPDATE: Overtime! Colts lined up in a sort of awesomely goofy formation, essentially making a big rectangle with 3 guys on each sideline to force Rivers to throw over the middle. Instead, he out-galaxy-brained everyone by trying to scramble up the massively open field himself, but was a half-second late getting out of bounds and the clock expired without a real attempt to score.


UPDATE 2: That was pretty quick. Chargers got the ball to start overtime, marched it right up the field, and ran it in for the game-winning score. Incidentally, their rushing attack has been just fine without Gordon. I'm all for guys trying to get as much money as they can while they can, but man oh man do I ever not want my team to spend non-negligible cap space on an RB.

114 Wow, this Cards-Lions game…

Wow, this Cards-Lions game is wild. Arizona trying to do what the Bills did earlier in the day and follow up being awful on offense all day by scoring on each drive late.

115 Wow, Kyler Murray looks…

Wow, Kyler Murray looks small on the field! Nice drive to tie it, this game seems like it was a thousand times more interesting than the Aikman special.

116 National Overreaction Week

I think the question we all will have for the Audible is does anyone on the FO staff think any game result against Miami is going to be usable this year? ;p

117 With 11 seconds left in OT,…

With 11 seconds left in OT, deep in their own territory, the Lions opt to pass. The Cardinals defender has it in his hands for a pick but just doesn't catch it. What I don't understand is why Detroit decided to do anything there. It's more likely something terrible happens and you lose there.

127 I'm pretty sure it was the …

I'm pretty sure it was the "we don't play to tie" mentality (often uttered by coaches who would never go for two to take the lead rather than kicking for a tie in regulation). I was even more concerned by going for it on 4th down with four seconds left, if that play doesn't last four seconds (which is certainly possible), they've just handed the ball over to other team for a game winning chip-in FG.

120 Ballad of El Gordon

Pats looking sharp on O, D and special teams early. Great TD run by Gordon and other receivers look good - embarrassment of riches at at a position that was a weakness a month ago. Rothburger with a lot of dump offs and running game stiffed. Brady looking pretty quick and accurate. I think the test for him will be 8 or 10 games down the schedule when the aches and pains are mounting.

122 And...

Collinsworth good point about Steelers switching to zone to stymie Pats last drive. Have to be proactive against Belichick schemes.

121 This fucking game. I keep…

This fucking game. I keep rooting against one team, then remembering I don't like the other team either.

124 Play Action

On the second TD drive, Pats bamboozled them with play action. Dorsett ran Gronk route down seam for TD.

126 The Steelers could not be more poorly coached

Never learn from mistakes. Never try to exploit own strengths vs opponent weakness. No situational awareness.

2 Minute Warning. 4th and 1. Try to draw Belichick team offside. Fail. Timeout, and a 5Wide pass on 4th and 1

You can't make this up.

131 2nd Dorsett TD

How does anyone get that open in the NFL? He Dorsett had so much time to think, I was sure he'd freeze and drop it. That Tomlin FG looking even better about now.

133 "False start...

... all the linemen except the center." Was an actual call by the ref. He's not wrong.

134 First Half of Season

Pats don't play any teams that made the playoffs last year. Or look like they will make the playoffs this year.

139 Whole thing is just the…

Whole thing is just the hottest of hot takes. 


After the Ravens they play the Eagles, Chiefs,  Texans and Cowboys. 


Frankly, with a 42 year old QB, I'd have rather played the chiefs tonight than in week 14

141 Pats don't play any teams…

Pats don't play any teams that made the playoffs last year...

... is not a possible thing, since the NFL schedule requires that they play all of last year's AFC division winners, and all of the teams - including the winner - from one of the NFC divisions.  Every first-place team, by the NFL's scheduling algorithm, must play a minimum of four of the prior year's playoff teams.  It could be more (I haven't actually looked at their schedule), but it's at least four.

145 ... in the first half of the…

... in the first half of the season. See the title of the post.

Agreed, though. It’s a lame complaint. The Patriots have a backloaded schedule this year, facing five of last year’s playoff teams in eight games. That’s pretty nasty of the league. Or maybe it’s just coincidence.

There’s no rest for the wicked good.

144 So the Saints get screwed…

So the Saints get screwed out of 10 seconds at the end of the half, because the refs decided to review a play? That is absolutely insane! How can there be any justification for this rule?

159 The refs botched the…

The refs botched the application of the rule as well. The runoff is supposed to be from the end of the play not from the start of the review. so it really cost them about 30 seconds