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Open 2020 NFL Draft Thread

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Photo: USA Today Sports Images

This is an open thread for discussion of the 2020 NFL Draft. You can use this thread all night Thursday night during the first round, or to discuss the aftermath of Round 1 the next day, and then again Friday night (Rounds 2-3) and Saturday (Rounds 4-7). We will also have our annual Audibles at the Line staff discussions from the first two nights, published on Friday and Saturday mornings.

Comments

154 comments, Last at 27 Apr 2020, 8:48pm

3 Technical issues

Watching how the IT issues unfold is nearly as interesting as the draft. If someone hacks the process WW3 might begin.

When does a draft pick get their bonus? As soon as they sign their contract? Pity for Burrow, "ok the contract is  signed lets go celebrate...."

At least the kids don't have to hug the Commissioner.

4 I've never cared much about…

I've never cared much about the draft, but I am aware that Tua was thought to be the clear number one pick a year ago. After his injuries he seems projected to go much lower. My question is, would he have been better off just sitting out all of the last college football season? Saying "I've already proven myself and playing this year would only increase my chances of serious injury"? It seems like he cost himself an enormous amount of money by playing football last season, with little upside even if he had had an incredible season.

6 I have no inside info, but I…

I have no inside info, but I suspect his experience will have successful freshmen/sophomores considering that going forward.

Maybe he returned because of how Clemson blew out Bama in their last championship game.

Regardless, the decision clearly cost him

 

 

13 That was the original point:…

That was the original point: The injury was more detrimental than perceptions of sitting out.

Especially for players with histories of serious injuries ...

It raises questions about playing as juniors

32 Sure, but the chance of…

Sure, but the chance of serious injury is minimal for any given year. And if a player has a history of serious injury, sitting out a year would hurt even more.

128 At least six NFL…

At least six NFL quarterbacks had five-plus games lost to injury last year.

What did Tua gain from playing his junior year his junior year?

131 He was the #5 pick in the…

He was the #5 pick in the 2020 NFL draft.

If he did not play in 2019 because he was afraid of jeopardizing his draft stock, whether by injury or by poor performance, he would have been drafted much later than #5.

That is what Tua gained.

8 Sitting out not risk free.

First, NFL teams might decide that a QB who does that will make "business decisions" as an NFL player, possibly in critical game situations.   Also think that NFL teams would be leery of someone who missed out on a year of development, especially if they drop out as a sophomore.

 

20 Would you rather be Tua…

Would you rather be Tua having sat out last season ...

Or Tua in his current state of health?

Either way carries risk.

But what’s the upside to playing junior year if you’re Tua at end of his sophomore season?

30 A business decision when you…

A business decision when you aren't being paid a cent is rather different from when you are being paid millions. College football is a scam, especially for the top players like Tua. Not participating in that isn't the same as quitting when you are genuinely employed.

9 He's still projected as the …

He's still projected as the #2 QB and will go in the top 5; it's hard to see how sitting out would have helped him, since he didn't get knocked out of the clear #1 QB spot by the injury, but by Burrows having the best QB season in NCAA history & he'd still be behind Burrows if he sat the year out.

11 Honestly, I think most of it…

Honestly, I think most of it is just that Burrow simply passed him in scouts' eyes. Even if he'd stayed healthy he'd probably be the 2nd pick, likely to go in the 3-10 range... exactly his status now. I'm ambivalent about whether sitting would have helped or hurt him relative to getting injured and Burrow doing what he did, but at the end of the day I have a hard time believing anyone would really take a guy who didn't play over a guy who shredded the SEC like Burrow did.

I also think there's some chance Herbert goes before Tua, but that that was true even without Burrow entering the picture, because Herbert is an excellent prospect as well, and a reasonable person might simply like him better (QBASE does, by a hair). Sitting likely wouldn't have helped him there either.

All that said, I can still easily see players deciding to sit out their remaining collegiate eligibility once they're basically assured to be first-rounders. I think one could easily argue that it's the right decision even if it causes them to drop, since that's still preferable to a severe injury. Even a 3rd round signing bonus is enough to set yourself up for life, if you're reasonably frugal; no reason to risk that for amateur glory.

How the impending profit-off-likeness rules affect that calculus will be interesting.

24 It's not that simple

You're also getting better at your craft during this time when you play. If you sit out, I don't think college coaches are going to have you take reps with the team to better yourself at the expense of, you know, actual players who intend to play games.

Ignoring all the "signals" it might send to GMs and draft decision-makers, sitting out stunts your growth at a key time when you are still learning the game.

16 The thing that is crazy…

The thing that is crazy about all this is that Burrow really only has one great year.  He couldn't even break 60 percent completion percentage the year before.  If Tua had not gotten hurt, he would be the much safer pick.  Seeing what happens in Cincinnati and Carolina will be really interesting next year; who's worth more, Burrow or his former coach Joe Brady.  I'm thinking Robby Anderson goes crazy this year.

18 Ordinarily, I wouldn’t take…

Ordinarily, I wouldn’t take at No. 1 overall a QB based on one great season.

But Burrow’s 2019 ... yowza.

Your point is well-taken, though. Tua was elite throughout college.

23 Someone sell me on Herbert…

Someone sell me on Herbert. I saw him play 5 times and I just don't get it. Holds onto the ball, throws a boatload of screens and, at least in the games I watched, seemed to have marginal accuracy at best. 

I get the height thing and above average arm strength, but what am I missing that he actually does on the field?

28 As near as I can tell there…

As near as I can tell there is still an ingrained attitude in the NFL that if a QB is tall and has an cannon arm, his weaknesses can be overcome despite the examples to the contrary. 

31 I won't sell you on him,…

I won't sell you on him, because I'm not completely sold on him either, but he is more accurate than Josh Allen.  That's not saying much though.  There are also a couple videos on Matt Waldman's channel that are high on Herbert; you can find them on youtube.  However, Matt Waldman isn't the one who created those videos, and he's higher on Burrow and Tua, while not being dismissive of Herbert's chances.

33 I love Tua

Too bad he's going to get hurt holding onto the ball too long trying to make every play.

68 I thought the Futures…

I thought the Futures article and QBASE covered it pretty well: good-ass arm, pretty good track record against pretty good competition.

His (in)accuracy is probably his biggest peccadillo and he still had a career 64% mark, and around 67% as a sophomore and a senior. That's fine - not outstanding, but fine. Qualitatively, his ball placement is quite good and he seems to instinctively understand how to throw the ball so only his guy can get it, which contributes to the thing I like best: he is very good at avoiding turnovers. Burrow and Tua are both also elite in that area so Herbert doesn't look as special, but both his career and senior year interception rates were lower than Baker Mayfield's (he of the allegedly unparalleled accuracy), for some perspective.

Basically, he's got more than sufficient arm talent for the NFL, a longer track record than Burrow, and fewer health concerns than than Tua. I actually think he has the highest floor of the three, in that I have the most confidence he will be available to play and not screw everything up when he does.

But that said, I do think he probably ends up as something resembling Joe Flacco, most likely, so I get not being totally in love with him - or wanting to hitch your franchise to a player like that.

12 If Tua had sat out the 2019…

If Tua had sat out the 2019 season and was fully healthy going into the draft, he would go either 2nd or 3rd.  As it stands now, he's probably going to go between 5 and 10, with an outside shot of going in the top 3.

14 There's no way Tua goes in…

There's no way Tua goes in the top three without playing football for a year.  No way.

 

Now, if he had played in Canada, or a successful alternate league....maybe, but I doubt it.  And he's just as likely to get hurt there.

 

I think sitting out a year makes him slide farther...perhaps behind Jordan Love.

10 Draft tonight

So, this is my projection of the top-10 tonight--let's see how I do (feel free to make your own list). Also, after the 1st 10 or so, you start getting into more possibilities of trades/runs on a specific position/team A likes player X more than player Y at a certain position, even though most teams like player Y more.

Caveats: For grading purposes, I am only projecting the players chosen at the spot, not the team. This is my first time making a "mock," so I am only guessing the player chosen at spot X--although I am including the team that I would guess makes the pick. So, here you go:

1--Burrow (CIN)

2--Young (WAS)

3--Tua (MIA)

4--Wirfs (NYG)

5--Okudah (DET)

6--Herbert (LAC)

7--Simmons (CAR)

8-- Brown (ARI)

9-- Henderson(JAX)

10-- Thomas (CLE)

 

126 Grade

In reply to by Joseph

Well, I got 4 exactly right, got the teams and picks right (but not the slot) for 3 & 5, and got 7 & 8 backwards. And my #10 pick went at #4--I just guessed the wrong tackle. I guess I did ok.

17 Agree with Joseph, the Lions hold key pick to draft.

IMO the Lions are the lynch pin to this draft. They can:

1. Pick Tua and hold

2. They can pick him and trade him to highest bidder (likely Miami) but not 100%. 

3. They can swap 1st round positions. ( as mentioned above ). 
4. It’s a game of chicken if they opt for #2, but that may get them the most value back IMO. 

27 Whose service do I need to…

Whose service do I need to subscribe to in order to get a 24-hour feed of the "Jerry Jones alone at home war room"?

I don't care who anybody else picks.  I just want to see JJ's reactions when they pick them, and how he updates his list as they do.

 

29 While this will be…

While this will be entertaining through out, it will be interesting how loaded he gets on Saturday as the draft drags on.

34 OMG. I hadn't even thought…

OMG. I hadn't even thought about that. I'm now going to have to watch Saturday. It's going to be 100° here, so I have little reason to head outside. 

35 Boo the commish hashtag

I was originally going to drive up to LV this weekend. I'm going to miss getting my chance to #boothecommish. 

37 It's an interesting feeling…

It's an interesting feeling watching a Kitboga video about Multi Level Marketing and watching a tv on silent with all these experts talking on draft day.  The cynic in me rejoices!  The Jets next bust coming in only an hour and a half!

 

38 Apparently, the NFL is…

Apparently, the NFL is operating under an old AOL dial-up connection from "Pick is In" to actual announcing of the pick.

39 So it's just chalk so far,…

So it's just chalk so far, with Burrow, Young and then Okudah.  No one's been stupid yet.  Giants are up right?

40 Dave Gettleman once again…

Dave Gettleman once again destroys everyone's mock draft by taking a right tackle at #4. 

45 When does NYG pick again? …

When does NYG pick again?  And who's the top ranked FB on the board?  Will he still be there when the Giants pick, or will Gettleman try to trade up to get him?

 

43 Tanking for Tua works! …

Tanking for Tua works!  Maybe this year didn't play out quite the way it was expected to for Tua or the Fins, but the end result looks much the same as predicted.

 

44 Think the Dolphins were…

Think the Dolphins were smart.  Going to hate my life as a Jets fan; went from Miami to Buffalo to New England to Miami running the division, with the Jets getting only two division titles in that time due to quarterback injuries.  Goddamnit.

46 Tua is a good pick

And it's the sort of pick they rarely make. Obviously there's a risk with Tua but there's also a lot of upside. When healthy he's definitely a better player than Herbert is.

47 Completely agree with this. …

Completely agree with this.  As a Jets fan I'd rather they'd draft Jordan Love.  Herbert might still work out.  At least the Patriots aren't getting any of the good QB prospects.

95 I like Herbert

But I like Tua more. It could very well blow up in their faces but speaking as a fan I find their willingness to take a risk sort of heartening, as IMO their (many) past "rebuilds" were all half-assed (and in some cases whole-assed). Sometimes fate favors the bold and that's a franchise that's been starved for "star power" for a long time. IMO it'll either work out big or fail big and hopefully it'll be fun to watch, something no one's said about Miami in a few decades.

48 Agree 100%. I think he's…

Agree 100%. I think he's better than Burrow when he's 100%. But I've watched a lot of Bama football. The man holds onto the ball to make the perfect play far too often. And it's not like Bama is coached by a bunch of guys who haven't told him to protect himself.

51 Staying "Healthy" is a reality of the game

As a Pats fan I'm glad the Dolphins took Tua because I really don't think it's going to work out. People theorizing that the Pats would move up to take Tua, that would've been my nightmare.

I get that many players play in various states of injury, but being able to even do that is a reality that many can't live up to; and it only gets harder in the pros.

I remember Ras-I-Dowling of the Patriots and how he couldn't stick on a roster due to injuries. Or Malcolm Mitchell with his knees. Or how some NFL players rarely missed games like Ray Lewis or London Fletcher.

Tua will definitely have moments of brilliance, but I'm pretty sure the game will destroy his body the way it broke RG3.

To me constitution/fortitude is a huge factor regarding value.

53 As a Jets fan, I hope you…

As a Jets fan, I hope you are correct.  As a Jets fan, my inner pessimism takes over and doubts you.  As a Jets fan, I'm looking forward to an entire season of Jarrett Stidham.  There are some events where pessimism just decides to leave.

54 Misplaced Pessimism

I think the pessimism regarding the Dolphins ascending due to Tua is misplaced, by week 10 he'll (unfortunately) be out of the lineup (I say unfortunately because I don't like to cast injuries in a positive way, and it's better to have brilliant players on the field).

I think the pessimism you should have is over Stidham though. I don't think he's going to light the world on fire like Mahomes or Jackson (still wish the Pats took him 32 instead of trading that pick), but I do think he'll play competently and the Pats will still be dangerous.

I know 2008 was a weird year for the Pats with Moss and all the weapons being led by Cassel but 2020 has been a weirder year; Stidham could very well out perform Brady's 2019 (though I think Brady does look good for the Bucs this year).

85 We'll have to agree to…

We'll have to agree to disagree on Stidham.  I just loved his second pass of the year last year.  Wish he threw more often against the Jets.

107 Darnold's first pass last…

Darnold's first pass last year was a boring incompletion to Jamison Crowder.  Josh Allen's pick six on the next drive was much more exciting.  If you meant Darnold's first pass when he got back from mono, that was a 17 yard completion, not a TD, not very exciting.  Now, if you mean Darnold's first pass against the Patriots last year, yes, you probably enjoyed that interception.  Still not as much as Jamal Adams' first career pick six which came on an unhurried throw from Stidham.

113 He probably mean Darnold's…

He probably mean Darnold's first pass in the NFL entirely, which was a pick-six. That game still ended in a blowout Jets win. I'm not going to bother to check if this might be likely but that could still be the best game the Jets have had with Darnold.

55 I worry about anyone with…

I worry about anyone with dislocations.  The process loosens up joints, and rehab/surgery rarely gets even close to back to the same level. Which means higher risk of injuries, especially in contact sports.

I would not have ever taken Tua in the first round because of the injury. We know that teams are inconsistent at identifying talent - so why would you take a known injury risk with premium resources. 

56 Because you think he's a…

Because you think he's a complete difference maker and head and shoulders above everyone else.

They might be wrong and I agree with you, he's a major injury risk. But in today's NFL you need a QB OR everything else. Getting a mediocre QB and then working to "build around them" takes a lot more resources than getting a special QB.

58 Draft structure

But with a good QB without a good rest of team you have the Luck Colts. A team pulled by it's QB and deprived of premium talent.

As much as the Browns season last year imploded, I think it makes sense to take the QB after you have taken premium talent at other positions for a few years and just need the capstone.

Having a good QB can put a team in perpetual mediocrity, just ask the Lions.

61 The congenitally idiotic…

In reply to by Rich A

The congenitally idiotic owner and the league of morons on the front office are why the Lions have been mediocre or worse for 60 years.

62 You take the QB when you…

In reply to by Rich A

You take the QB when you think you've found him.

And remember the Dolphins have another 4 first round picks in this draft and next year's. They have more premium resources available.

86 Yeah, this thread is absurd…

Yeah, this thread is absurd.  I don't think the Cowboys were wrong to draft Aikman, even though the team stunk around him.  You draft a great QB prospect when you get the chance to, unless you already have one.

92 In regard to Carr the elder,…

In regard to Carr the elder, or Mariota, do you think players get shell shocked by becoming sacked regularly and then actually degrade in talent?

Put another way, can you destroy an asset if you don't have the proper support system around him.

By this stage in the draft I can see the Dolphins took a tackle with their second first rounder, so what they're doing certainly makes sense and comes across as a unified plan, which is more than many drafts come out as.

99 Not sure how good Jackson…

Not sure how good Jackson will be; I have more faith in Josh Jones, but perhaps I've seen how well Jackson's ex-linemate Edoga did in New York.  I doubt the Dolphins rush Tua; Fitzpatrick will start the season at the very least.

In other news, I'm thinking Darnold is already on his way to Carrdom.  Hopefully the monster the Jets drafted helps, but unfortunately Gase is still the coach.

57 Exactly this

The premium resource is so rare, and even when the tank is on, it's still hard to land a top-3 pick. Would've been better to trade down, take him later, or do the unsexy thing and build in the trenches and take the pain of another down year and then take someone high next year when there's a better support network.

Tua behind a suspect line against NFL defenders is a bad recipe for the dolphins. At least Fitzmagic will pull the trigger and also protect himself.

(I think it would be hilarious if the Pats pick up Fitzmagic at cutdowns and beat up the AFC East with him)

60 "or do the unsexy thing and…

In reply to by Rich A

"or do the unsexy thing and build in the trenches and take the pain of another down year and then take someone high next year when there's a better support network."

The Browns method. Pass on Watson, Mahomes and grab Kizer in the 2nd round.

69 Just because the Browns…

Just because the Browns messed up the process doesn't mean the process is a bad one.

That being said, I do acknowledge the point of this and of above that when you've found your guy, take him.

But I think smart coaches find good players for their systems. Mahomes may still have been really good under Kitchens but he's transcendent with Reid.

Maybe I'm just hoping the Pats don't spend the next 20 years in QB purgatory like my hometown Blue Bombers, so maybe I'm grasping at straws hoping the Pats don't have to tank.

75 You're doing your dual…

You're doing your dual-football league interest wrong LOL.  Love a team in one league, watch the other for the joy of football undiminished by the heartbreak of watching your team lose.

It even works in years when your home town team wins the Grey Cup (congrats again!)  Or at least, I assume it does.  Its been decades since I've had the chance to find out ...

 

84 I cheer for the Patriots but…

I cheer for the Patriots but for actual football attendance I go to more Viking games then Bomber games. And even though I run the NE Pats Winnipeg Fan club I do not love the team; I don't yell at the screen or get upset about losses or anything. My identity is more than the team I follow. The fan club is a social thing because I'm outgoing.

I actually really enjoy the Patriots not so much for their winning, which is nice, but mostly because they're one of the most schematically diverse teams to follow. I mean, no one else really gets things like the Wildcat thrown at them. The amount of interesting writing about the team from places like Chris Brown's smartfootball.com/grantland, or even Bowen when he was at BR.

An amazing book for those interested in the X's and O's is Every Play Revealed Volume II: Seahawks vs Patriots. The book basically details every call of the superbowl and how previous drives influenced following drives.

That is not the stuff you find when you follow the Lions or the Browns.

One of the worst things about being a Patriots follower is dealing with most other blowhard Patriots fans.

87 "Maybe I'm just hoping the…

"Maybe I'm just hoping the Pats don't spend the next 20 years in QB purgatory like my hometown Blue Bombers, so maybe I'm grasping at straws hoping the Pats don't have to tank."

Considering you think starting Stidham this year is going to work out for the Pats,  I think you're still in the denial stage.  They won't have to tank like the Bengals, but they're going to have to draft somebody.  Maybe Hurts or Eason will work out for them.

93 Eason got them to a Super…

Eason got them to a Super Bowl at least... one more than Ken O'Brien went to.  Granted, O'Brien was a better player, but you can't have everything, or even Dan Marino if you don't draft him.

91 Yeah, I'm hoping Hurts. I'm…

Yeah, I'm hoping Hurts. I'm still sore from the trade out of 32 that the Ravens then used to get Jackson, and then how Jackson thoroughly abused the Pats last year. At least schematically it's pretty interesting.

52 Not sure if I would take…

Not sure if I would take Brown over Isiah Simmons for defense.  Matt Rhule making the same mistake the Jets usually make, draft the stud interior defensive lineman high up.

72 Is there anything in this…

Is there anything in this draft better than Michael Irving's outfit?  That suit-shirt-tie combination is a true work of art.

 

101 A shortened season, I'd…

A shortened season, I'd guess.  If they play the first few weeks in empty stadiums, it'll be just like Argos home games in years when they have a losing record ...

73 I am not a fan of trading up…

I am not a fan of trading up a single pick. Always seems like you psyched yourself out.

76 Gut feeling

SF was shopping it around to get some mid-round draft capital without dropping too far.

Although, they could have dropped a bit farther for Kinlaw I think.

79 Half the picks are from the…

Half the picks are from the SEC through 14. They might want to upgrade the "first among equals" slogan.

81 49ers....

Why can’t we have any fun toys?  Replacing Buckner with a younger, cheaper version is treading water.

83 Admittedly, treading water…

In reply to by Stendhal1

Admittedly, treading water with a D as good as SFs last year isn't a crazy idea, but I do agree.

100 Fun toy

In reply to by Stendhal1

OK, Aiyuk is a nice consolation prize.

104 Uh oh

In reply to by Stendhal1

I just read the FO profile.  

89 Who the hell is Damon…

Who the hell is Damon Arnette?  Granted, I didn't pay as much attention this year to the prospects, but what are the Raiders doing?

121 After Clellin Ferrell at #4(…

After Clellin Ferrell at #4(?) last year, and now Arnette, it's clear Mayock doesn't subscribe to Blesto or whomever else makes the default rankings that most GMs use.  He probably does this because Belichick does this.  We'll see whether he has the evaluation skills to justify the practice.

94 One thing to consider about…

One thing to consider about Tua's injuries is that there may not be football played this year, which would give him a chance to fully recover. 

96 Wtf?

Heh, I had the mistaken impression that Mike Mayock knew what he was doing. Oops. I think I would’ve drafted better, and I’m a lawyer.

102 WTF II

WTF? I can't believe the Packers drafted Love. And traded up to do it. AAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHHHH! 

105 It's odd

In reply to by justanothersteve

I didn't see much of him in college (did anyone?) so I'm no Jordan Love expert but the logic of wanting him bad enough to move up for him here seems peculiar. One would think they have more pressing needs than QB. As a developmental project OK, but do they have that luxury right now? Perhaps they see him as a multi-threat type weapon.

109 Rodgers being drafted was…

In reply to by lenny65

Rodgers being drafted was fine. I actually liked it because I thought Favre's retirement threats were dragging the team down. I remember several online arguments I had with other Packers fans (especially in an old mail list - remember those?)

OTOH, Gutekunst spent a lot of cash last year to revamp the defense - and did it successfully. They looked good and just short of being a legit SB contender. (As good as last year's record was, it was obvious that they weren't as good as SF or KC or Baltimore.) They just redid Rodgers contract so that they really can't cut him for three years. This shows me that Gutekunst doesn't really have a plan. I can't tell you how disappointed I am in this pick. 

111 The more I swish it around…

The more I swish it around in my head, the more I like the Love pick, actually. Every team, but especially the Packers, has to balance short-term and long-term health of the franchise. Getting a real successor to Rodgers is obviously the most important thing for the latter, and I think with that in mind it's good to get started looking early (I actually think both Hundley and Kiser were seen as potential successors... try, try again). And then part of me was thinking "OK, take him at 30 if he's there, but don't trade up for a project," but then, if you really think he might be the guy, you don't risk losing him over a mid-round pick. It's fine.

Part of it, for me, is that I really like Love - apparently more than most around here. I know I'm a sucker for "arm talent" but man that kid can really throw. But he's also not just a workout warrior; his 2018 performance was really good. The QBASE article points out that if he'd (been able to) come out after that performance, he'd have the fifth-highest projection in this year's class (a nose ahead of Hurts, incidentally). Obviously that things fell apart isn't, you know, good, but apparently that team lost a lot of talent and he started trying to do too much. And his deficiencies, abundant as they may be, seem to mostly revolve around poor reading of defenses, and you can hope that you can fix that with better coaching and abundant practice - both things he should have, now. And if a year or two from now it's clear he's not "getting it," you can cut bait without being forced into a desperation move, since Rodgers is probably still around for 3 more years.

117 I would not have minded this…

I would not have minded this a tenth as much if they hadn't just resigned Rodgers to an extension which basically means he will still play three years in GB. The cap hit if he's traded or cut before 2022 is over $30M. It's still $17M+ in 2022. They've already made their bed with Rodgers. They had spent this offseason wisely, filling in any holes on the roster with replacement players (that's not a bad thing when you're against the cap) and looked to be better this year. Not bad when they were one game away from the Super Bowl last year (although I admit the squad was flawed and were clearly inferior to KC, Baltimore, and SF). 

It's also a terrible message to send to the fans. It looks like he doesn't have a plan of his own so he's hoping to copy Ted Thompson's plan. TT's plan made sense because Favre had already threatened retirement (it was more than just talk) and it was clearly affecting the team's morale. The only thing I can think is that he's decided he's going to jettison Rodgers despite the cap hit and hope for the best. I am not looking forward to the next couple years as a Packers fan. 

118 I'm still baffled too

Though there is another way you can interpret things. Rodgers contract, like you said, means he's playing for 3 more years. He can essentially feel safe for three years. He knows that he has three years to win a SB with this team before they cut him loose. Gutekunst has shown that he can build with free agency the team doesn't require the draft like TT did, so this isn't quite as expensive since it's not the only means they use to get players anymore.

Love is going to sit for three years behind him, and the Packers no longer have to worry about the back-up. Rodgers got a mechanics rework during his three years on the bench, and learned how to study at the NFL level. Love gets that chance. Though the NFL being the NFL that is likely not what will happen, but it is a message that I'm reading from this. Rodgers was just put on a 3 year time clock. There won't be another contract rework. He gets 18 years in Green Bay, 15 as a starter, and then they are moving on. No playing games with how many years does he have left after 40, no worries about a Favre-esque retired, not retired, retired, not retired crap which was really tiresome and made me happy about the Rodgers pick too.

Do I think it was the best use of draft capital? No, not even close. Do I think it's a good message, not really. But I don't think it's muddled. 

Rookie contracts are cheap. First rounders can be kept for 5 years at a low cost. Trading up indicates you have to believe that you at least have the back-up QB in place, and back-up QB's have mattered in GB. Rodgers gets dinged up, and his sack numbers aren't really going down, even with a good pass blocking o-line. They needed a new back-up anyway. Though drafting a back-up QB in the first round feels a bit like drafting a kicker or punter at any point in the draft. 

Gutekunst has said several times he thinks that he can get a good WR almost anywhere in this draft, not sure I believe it, though I think it's still the biggest position of need on the team. Well TE is, but you can live without a TE if you have a good WR corps and they have blocking TE's they need people that can move and catch the ball.

 

So, I'm with you, I don't really like the pick, and I did like the Rodgers pick back in 05. As you said this situation is different. We'll see how the rest of the draft goes. It's all a crap shoot anyway. It's fun to speculate. I don't think this is a muddle message though, just not the message I would send. You could get the QB next year, or the year after and still give them time to sit. But GB is the one place that can point to sitting for 3 years being a good thing. LOL 

119 I think that's exactly it:…

I think that's exactly it: this says that they do have a plan, it's 3 years of Rodgers, a nice send-off, and then it's The Love Show. Although if Rodgers is still going strong at that point, they could extend him and Garoppolo Love. To me, that's a sensible plan A and a strong plan B - and infinitely preferable to waiting until Rodgers looks done and then hoping a solid, NFL-ready prospect will be available.

Your point about backup QB's is a really good one, although if Love is as behind as people say he is, he might not even be ready to be the backup this year. That's actually a point against him.

As for receivers, they definitely need another good one or three, but I'm always leery of counting on a draftee to fill an immediate need. That seemed like an area screaming for a free agent signing, and Gutekunst delivered, with *checks notes* er, Devin Funchess.

103 Thought NE would take Love. …

Thought NE would take Love.  Surprised they traded away rather than see what he could do.

GB taking him is … interesting.

110 That wouldn't have surprised…

That wouldn't have surprised me, either.  No guarantee he'll still be around for NE's next pick, though, so I guess Belichick really isn't that concerned about giving Stidham competition.

112 Patriots have the fifth pick…

Patriots have the fifth pick in the second round (from the Chargers), so Hurts should fall to them... unless Indianapolis picks him.  Doubt the Lions or Giants would take him.

122 I will be very disappoined…

I will be very disappoined if the Patriots draft a QB there.  I don't necessarily believe Hurts is an improvement over Stidham -- it's hard for me to evaluate quarterbacks that play on the most dominant teams in college football.  Unless one wants to make the case that that QB is the reason said team was dominant.  Given that most QBs only start at those programs for one year, and that most recent Alabama and Oklahoma QBs have been drafted, I sort of doubt it.  I'd rather they draft a QB on day 3 and/or sign a vet.  If Stidham fails, they can draft a QB next year.  I have a hunch, however, that Stidham can be a better pro than Tua or Herbert.

My guess is that the Pats select Cole Kmet early tonight.  Possibly even trading up. 

125 It's not like Stidham was…

It's not like Stidham was surrounded by a pile of crap.

His Baylor team reached #2. His 2017 Auburn team reached #4 and the SEC championship game. Even his disappointing 2018 team reached #8 in October.

127 True, he came out of a…

True, he came out of a successful program.  But certainly you can see the difference between Auburn/Baylor and Alabama/Oklahoma. 

The only WRs/RBs/TEs out of Auburn and Baylor who played with Stidham, by my count, are Jalen Hurd, Kerryon Johnson, Duke Williams, and Darius Slayton.

Guys who came out of Alabama/Oklahoma during that time?  Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, Derrick Henry, Damien Harris, OJ Howard, Robert Foster, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, Rodney Anderson, Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, DeDe Westbrook, Sterling Shepard.  Hell, three WRs went in the top 17 picks yesterday, and three more could go in the first round next year.  I'm willing to bet offensive linemen follow suit.  Alabama seems to put their entire offensive line in the NFL every season.

So when one system produces Mayfield, Murray, and Hurts under Lincoln Riley, and the other puts out Hurts and Tua concurrently/consecutively, as well as putting guys like McElroy and McCarron in the draft (as well as every draft-eligible running back), I have a hard time separating the quarterback from the offensive system and NFL-calibre surrounding talent.  I'm sure others are better at it.

And the jury's still out on all these guys...but for a NCAA team to put out back-to-back quarterbacks #1 overall, both of whom transferred into the program from other schools, and one of which who actually quit football after his college career because he considered baseball to be his future ...well, either they're the luckiest team in the history of teams, or there are other forces at work.

129 1. I don't think you can…

1. I don't think you can credit Hurts for players who were gone from Oklahoma before he got there.

2. I've pointed this out before, but MSU in the spring of 2008 had Nick Foles, Brian Hoyer, and Kirk Cousins on the depth chart at the same time. That was no one's premier offensive team.

So yes, it's an embarrassment of riches, but it's not spectacularly different than what the usual top pick has -- a Marriota, a Winston, a Luck (talk about a guy with an embarrassment of riches), a Murray, a Mayfield, a Griffin, a Hopkins, a Haskins, etc.

Hell, look at next year. Trevor Lawrence has played on historically stacked teams.

The list of guys who weren't surrounded by substantially more talented casts than usual are pretty few. Newton/Tebow, but their teams were mostly stacked defensively and just asked them for enough offense. Wentz, whose team was a murderer's row by FCS standards. Then there are the reachier guys -- Bortles, Trubisky, Goff, Mahomes, Bridgewater, Jackson, Lynch, Jones, Allen. Some of those guys hit big. Most cratered hard.

124 The Lions could. Stafford…

The Lions could. Stafford isn't getting any younger or healthier, and their backups last year were a disaster.

Also, with the front office's penchant for driving their best players away, I can see Stafford refusing to resign or pulling a Barry/Calvin on them.

Stupid bastards. My cat could run a better team.

116 Packers taking a QB in the…

Packers taking a QB in the first round makes no sense. Aaron Rodgers may not quite what he once was but he's still not going anywhere any time soon. I wouldn't even really want to take a QB in the third round if I were them, but spending such high draft capital for a guy who's going to sit on the bench for the foreseeable future is absurd.

130 He's 36, and has already…

He's 36, and has already shown significant decrease is ability/health.

The chances that he's still a good starting QB at the end of Love's rookie contract are remote. 

141 In a time when QBs are…

In a time when QBs are playing effectively into their 40s that's a huge assumption. The decline is also talked up too much, Rodgers isn't a bum. He looks worse because of how incredible he was at his peak.

132 The Patriots should go full…

The Patriots should go full smash-mouth and draft Jonathan Taylor.  Hurts or Fromm could be better than Stidham this year, but I have my doubts any of them will be the long term answer.  Definitely not the answer that Bledsoe or Brady were.  I also hope Belichick doesn't heed this advice, because I would love it if the Jets got Taylor.

133 WR

Bengals have done more for Joe Burrow than Packers have for Aaron Rodgers

in 10+ years, attack the wide receiver position.

135 Was about to post about how…

Was about to post about how Belichick hit "send" on the Patriots' "Pick is in" before the broadcast team had finished reading out the Giants' prior pick … then they cut to his videofeed and turns out it was his dog who hit "send" while Bill was out of the room.  It's all good, though, 'cus Bill feed the dog a treat when him came back.  "Good boy, who'd you draft for us this year?"

Anyway, more random thoughts:

How is Xavier McKinney going to help the Giants run the ball?  Sometime's Gettelman's picks confuse me.

The Pats have roughly 100 picks between now and the end of the draft.  Was it really necessary to use their top pick on a Division 2 guy?  And if not, what kind of message is Belichick's dog trying to send to the picks they take later?

 

 

138 Packers are gonna get a…

Packers are gonna get a bunch of F's from the graders this year, and it will be warranted.

139 I Wish This Site was Richer

I wish they were rich enough to be able to afford all those electrons to make separate draft threads for each day. Maybe next year.

140 Not a fan of the Patriots'…

Not a fan of the Patriots' trade-ups for TEs.

They gave up 125, 129, 139, 172, and a 2021 6th for 91 & 159, while also moving down a spot from 100 to 101.

If they stay put then they can draft one of those TEs at 100, and I think there's a reasonable chance that they still get both with Asiasi at 100 & Keene at 125.

142 The Eagles drafting a QB in…

The Eagles drafting a QB in the second round makes even less sense than the Packers QB move yesterday. Wentz is 27 and would already have an MVP under his belt if not for a late season injury a few years ago.

145 Is it me, or are the Jets…

Is it me, or are the Jets drafting a bunch of guys from Florida?  Only the guard they picked (I guess the first round monster is from Louisville) came from Charlotte.  Stinks of Gase.

146 LOL.  Belichick's dog wants…

LOL.  Belichick's dog wants a kicker, and doesn't care about your pre-conceived notions about draft values.

I guess you can't play fetch with a WR, and while you can play catch with a QB, apparently it's even more fun chasing after balls that have been kicked instead of thrown.

EDIT: can't wait to read how many times "draft grade" writers cite "it's Belichick so I guess he knows what he's doing" and/or "he's a great fit in NE's system" when describing NE's overall draft this year.  There's been a whole lot of negative variance versus consensus to explain away.  Not that I think consensus is always right, but there's the occasional "we like this guy better than consensus" and then there's whatever the heck Belichick's dog is up to this year.  Gettelman's draft is looking downright chalky by comparison.