Football Outsiders
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Super Bowl LIV Open Discussion Thread

Super Bowl LIV Logo
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

49ers! Chiefs! Winner gets the Lombardi Trophy! Loser gets the 31st draft pick! Use this thread to discuss the game, the halftime show, the commercials, and any other related activity. 

Comments

194 comments, Last at 04 Feb 2020, 4:30am

1 Highest

This really could be highest scoring Super Bowl in history!!! But I feel so strong about this that it probably goes the other way!!!

5 I don't think that's likely…

In reply to by kevschwarz

I don't think that's likely.  If SF has offensive success, it's likely to be on the ground, which lowers the number of drives per game.  If KC gets an early lead and SF starts airing it out, that's a better match up for KC, whose pass defence is pretty good.

Either way, I don't like SF's odds for scoring a lot of points, and I think the game will be decided by whether KC does or not.  (My guess is they do.)

No doubt the 49ers now go out and put up 45 points LOL

3 Best hope for the Niners is…

Best hope for the Niners is to get a big lead early, and then play keep-away. Of course, both the Texans and Titans tried the same strategy, and it didn't work for either of them. I think this time it will be closer, because the Niners are better than those other teams, but I'll still take the Chiefs.

Chiefs 31, Niners 24

4 The way today has gone for…

The way today has gone for me so far, I predict:
49ers 49, Chiefs 10.

I'm rooting for the Chiefs in a Revis jersey. So yeah, I'm rooting for Sherman to get torched. I'm probably out of luck like the rest of today.

11 My mom called that Mahomes…

My mom called that Mahomes fumble before it happened. She hasn't watched a football game since last super vowel

13 I was not expecting a Wal…

I was not expecting a Wal-Mart commercial with both Mars Attacks! and Bill and Ted references (including a digital recreation of teenage Bill) in the year of our lord 2020, but here we are.

22 Well yeah, and they had Toy…

In reply to by Mountain Time …

Well yeah, and they had Toy Story, Men in Black, Stars both Wars and Trek, stuff that's actually been popular this century. But neither Bill and Ted nor Mars Attacks! were even terribly popular last century, much less this one - although I'd be delighted if they were! I guess we are getting that new Bill and Ted movie this year...

191 well...

In reply to by Mountain Time …

ad guys who write commercials with references in them are good as pitching them to people who buy ads.

I'm not sure that they meet the nominal goal of advertising, of selling products to people.  Felt like most of the references in that ad were pitched at people at least 50 years old.  But we're not the demographic that commercials are usually aimed at.  

194 That's what I was thinking…

In reply to by RickD

That's what I was thinking when I saw the Doritos ad with Lil Nas X and Sam Elliott.  It was a clever, funny ad, but it didn't really make me want to go buy a bag of Doritos.

14 I always thought that "put…

I always thought that "put the helmet on the ball" thing was asking for trouble, and that's why. I really hope Ward is okay, but fundamentally it is a sort of leading with the helmet; even if it's not strictly speaking targeting the player, it's still putting your head in harm's way, and they ought to think about a rules change to discourage it.

18 And the Chiefs punch it in…

And the Chiefs punch it in first, as Mahomes realizes, better late than never, that he has the option to keep it on the option play.

That drive did not bode well for the Niners, as the Chiefs moved it fairly easily - I guess they had a couple of third/fourth downs - despite no particularly big plays. They even, technically, got a sack, but that didn't help much.

And holy moly, the 1st quarter is over already? That was fast. Good on the refs, there were (I think) 3 flags, but they got through them quickly, and got the spots right. Very clean officiating so far.

186 Michigan ran the play…

Michigan ran the play against USC in 1948. They didn't do the Michael Jackson spin move though.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AbTIDYhibzQ&t=45&feature=youtu.be

The video isn't cued up to the right moment, sorry. Michigan used that set and motion for a dozen different plays.

33 Running straight ahead hasn…

Running straight ahead hasn't worked.  Sweeps, Jet sweeps and pitches have.  Also, I think Pennel wasn't in on that drive, but he wouldn't have helped much, since most of those runs  were to the outside.

31 Well, that went better for…

Well, that went better for the Niners. Good on Garoppolo for shaking of the pick and making some nice throws (I seem to recall a game or two ago they had some graphic about how his stats on drives immediately following an interception are off the charts).

34 Reid must encourage his…

Reid must encourage his receivers (or at least Hill) to dance around going backwards looking for a seam to make a big play, rather than just dive forward to pick up a first down, because they do it pretty consistently. Bold move to go against convention wisdom, I wonder if he's right to here.

68 It's becoming a theme, KC…

It's becoming a theme, KC receivers not taking the first down and instead stepping sideways, looking to make a big and leaving them on something-and-1 instead of a new set of downs.  

I don't recall seeing this in past games, but I don't get a lot of KC games on TV.

43 Terrible decision-making by…

Terrible decision-making by the 49ers at the end of the half. They must have an incredible lack of faith in Garoppolo.

However, that was a good half for the 49ers. They get the ball first in the second, which is big. The 49ers looked like the better team in the first half to me. They moved the ball much more efficiently and were only stopped by the one turnover and strange time management decisions

44 Wow, the 49ers really…

Wow, the 49ers really mishandled that end of the half. Ok, so Kittle gets called for a push-off; why aren't you throwing a hail mary at least?

48 SF end of half playcalling…

SF end of half playcalling like they're the favourites and should prevail in second half.

KC 4th down playcalling like they're the underdogs and need conversions and TDs, not FGs.

End result is a tie at halftime despite SF giving up the only turnover, so maybe Shanahan and Reid are right and SF's likely to prevail in H2, but I still suspect KC wins this.

58 49ers are averaging 8.1…

49ers are averaging 8.1 yards per play at the moment. Aside from the pick there's been little sign of KC being able to stop them.

63 Not looking good for the…

Not looking good for the Chiefs at the moment. With a TD on this drive I think it becomes very unlikely they win.

65 KC is probably going to have…

KC is probably going to have to score TDs on every drive from here on out to win. Since they have only a TD and a FG on five drives so far (and the TD required a 4th down conversion) that doesn't seem likely.

69 And now Kelce eschews a…

And now Kelce eschews a first down in favor of trying to make a move to create a big play out of nothing.

71 If the game ended now, at…

If the game ended now, at the beginning of the 4th quarter when you're apparently allowed to vote for it already, who would be the MVP? The SF fullback Jusyzyck(sp)?

75 That might be the game,…

That might be the game, there.

Definitely looking forward to "Can Mahomes win the big one???" nonsense being a Thing now. /sarcasm

77 Can't wait for next year's…

Can't wait for next year's Ravens-Chiefs AFC Championship Game where whichever QB loses gets called a choker and whoever wins... probably has a 50% chance of getting the same treatment two weeks later.

78 49ers are pretty much…

49ers are pretty much dominating this game from every perspective statistics wise. It shouldn't even be this close.

81 In retrospect, the fact that…

In retrospect, the fact that the Chiefs kept getting forced into 3rd and 4th down on that first/TD drive should've been more of a warning sign. They really haven't done much since.

86 Alright, it's a game again…

Alright, it's a game again. But I don't like KC's chances of stopping the 49ers at all. Aside from the pick and the last drive it's been like a knife through butter.

88 All of a sudden it's a game…

All of a sudden it's a game again, thanks to the bomb to Hill. Surprised they haven't tried more deep throws, even if SF is keying to stop them. Not for nothing, but the Packers made that game as interesting as it ever got with a deep bomb, too (although of course they sealed the loss by getting another one picked...).

90 That was some pathetic…

That was some pathetic coverage in that drive by KC, and we have a ball game again. Still, I think there's a decent chance Mahomes never touches the ball again at this point. This game flew by.

96 WTH. We've somehow found…

WTH. We've somehow found ourselves in a position where the Chiefs have actually left an awful lot of time left on the clock for a 49ers comeback.

97 I think if you paired Aikman…

I think if you paired Aikman with a guy like Kevin Harlan, that could be a really good booth. Joe Buck is pathetic.

110 I was thinking about that…

I was thinking about that the whole review. I think, given the little time left, and the fact that they haven't really been able to stop the Niners, I would've kicked the FG. Take my chances on running it out with the game tied, rather than trailing. I just don't trust any offensive line to ensure any gain against that front 4 on a single play.

But maybe I'm a coward.

163 Yes you should go for it.  I…

Yes you should go for it.  I think the key thing to remember is that tie game, your opponent having the ball with a few minutes to play is not a 50/50 situation, it's actually an advantage for team with the ball.  Therefore + score EV decisions are definitely still good, and some - score EV aggressive decisions are good as well.

100 SF is still averaging over 7…

SF is still averaging over 7 yards a play on the game. I don't exactly hate their chances of a winning drive here. But it should never have come to this.

101 Oh man that's close on the…

Oh man that's close on the TD. Looks like the tip breaks the front plane of the line to me but that's about as close as I can remember seeing.... since that non-TD at the end of the Seattle-SF game in Week 17.

104 It looks like he stepped out…

It looks like he stepped out, but I'm not exactly sure where the ball was at the time. I wish we had a better angle, but as it stands, I think that's a good call to sustain the ruling on the field.

106 Mahomes has not been his…

Mahomes has not been his normal self this game. If KC hangs on (big IF), who gets MVP? Not sure Mahomes has played well enough to "deserve" it, but has any other Chief stood out enough to deplace the default "winning QB is MVP" voting?

145 It'll be Mahomes as a…

It'll be Mahomes as a surrogate for Reid, who is really who deserves it, or maybe the offense asa whole. Mahones' 7 runs for 43 yards and a TD will help. This is the worst I've seen Mahomes play that I can remember though (funny how that happens against a great defense)

156 Didn't seem to me that SF…

Didn't seem to me that SF was bothering Mahomes that often.  He was just missing open guys more than typical.  There was a lot of separation between Chiefs receivers and 49ers defenders all game long, it just took a long time for KC to take advantage of it.  The two INTs hurt, too, especially the second one.

121 I was wondering about that…

I was wondering about that. Honestly it's probably Mahomes, although offhand I can't think of an MVP who had two picks. Otherwise, maybe Hill - good numbers for a receiver, and caught the big play that turned the game around (assuming it doesn't turn back around...).

114 With four downs to work with…

With four downs to work with it will be hard to stop SF. Chiefs need a big play, whether it's a sack or turnover.

124 Wonder if the Chiefs would…

Wonder if the Chiefs would have been better off not making the PAT and only having a 3-point lead.

More likely you get to OT, less likely that SF 4-downs it into a win.

129 Wow, what the heck was that…

Wow, what the heck was that play?

That looked like they could've gotten a facemask on the Chiefs, that guy hit Garoppolo square across the eyes. But it was pretty clearly a late snap.

EDIT: I didn't actually finish this thought: it was a late snap, so the play shouldn't have happened at all. I don't think you can challenge that there was delay of game, but given what happened last year, and the response, they might've changed that rule this offseason.

133 What the heck SF? How do…

What the heck SF? How do you get gashed that bad when you know KC's running?

EDIT: Or was this a sneaky way to get the ball back so you can score, recover an onside kick, and score again? /conspiracy_theory

134 Should Williams have gone…

Should Williams have gone down? I guess not since the 49ers still had two timeouts. I can't believe the turnaround in this game.

136 Oh wow, now it's really over…

Oh wow, now it's really over. Holy crap did that game change in a hurry.

Which I guess is consistent with what a lot of us expected, in the end. I just thought it would happen earlier than halfway through the 4th quarter.