This is the open discussion thread for both of Sunday's divisional-round playoff games: Cleveland at Kansas City followed by Tampa Bay at New Orleans.
2 GB wants NO
rather than TB but Brady v Rodgers is a long awaited playoff matchup too.
5 Great observation
What a great observation. The only guy to do it better would have been Joe Flacco when he went on the road to out play P.Manning and then Brady on his way to the S.B. He did it in front of packed stadiums no less.
11 Eli ran through some HOF…
Eli ran through some HOF gauntlets, too
16 Absolutely
Absolutely Eli did, and with a slightly worse team-statistically speaking.
182 There's another 12 your missed
Aaron Rodgers also won all three NFC playoff games on the road in 2010
261 Brady
Under the heading - What have you done for me lately?
I will randomly pick some seasons. (Look at that - randomly picked the last 5 seasons)
Season
2020 wild card 2-0 so far in playoffs
2019 won toilet bowl 0-1 in playoffs
2018 won superbowl 4-1 in playoffs
2017 Lost superbowl - 2-1 in playoffs
2016 Won super bowl 3 - 0 in playoffs
Last 5 yrs; playoffs - 11-3
262 Brady
Under the heading - What have you done for me lately?
I will randomly pick some seasons. (Look at that - randomly picked the last 5 seasons)
Season
2020 wild card 2-0 so far in playoffs
2019 won toilet bowl 0-1 in playoffs
2018 won superbowl 4-0 in playoffs Beat ? and ? and then KC and then Rams
2017 Lost superbowl - 2-1 in playoffs
2016 Won super bowl 3 - 0 in playoffs Beat ? and ? and Falcons
Last 5 yrs; playoffs - 11-2
Just curious, who has had the most BYE's in playoffs in SB era?
4 I certainly expect KC to win…
I certainly expect KC to win today, but I am surprised the line is at 10 points. It was half the season ago the last time the Chiefs beat a team by 10... And they were playing the Jets that day.
EDIT: Although now I'm seeing the line is now down to 8.
6 I'm also wondering if this will be one of those games where
"styles make fights." KC has got to be a little nervous about that terrible run D containing Chubb and Hunt, right? No question KC is better, but CLE has a strength ready to press on KC's one glaring weakness.
Edit: Welp, already clear it was wishful thinking on my part. Pulling for the Browns, but looking ugly early.
26 I’m not too surprised
Some of it is just public perception, or the books’ perception of the public’s perception. The public thinks the Browns are lucky to be here and the Chiefs are juggernaut, ergo 10 points. Give the extra bye week and Reid’s record after byes, though, I’d be shocked if the Browns covered without a garbage-time backdoor touchdown.
41 If it were really just a…
If it were really just a matter of public perception, Vegas would be relatively easy to beat. Just bet against teams with huge fan bases. In reality, oddsmakers are almost impossible to beat.
50 But there’s a reason for that
They adjust their lines to limit their exposure. I mean, if Cleveland had been only a seven-point underdog, the money would have poured in on the Chiefs, and the line would have climbed rapidly.
7 KC first drive is a…
KC first drive is a precession. This could become uninteresting quite quickly.
9 KC should go for 2 everytime now
Let's see a high scoring game.
15 I love Cleveland (the city…
I love Cleveland (the city and the team), I'm rooting for them, but this looks to me like one of the biggest Divisional-round mismatches that I can remember. If they actually pull this off, the entire team - roster, coaching staff, trainers, front office, ticket takers, popcorn vendors, feral cats haunting the rafters - needs to be inducted into their own wing of the Hall of Fame. I don't see any possible way they win unless KC has some truly tragic injuries - and it's Cleveland who just lost their very good starting LT.
I picked KC 45 CLE 24 yesterday, and my other predictions were wildly incorrect, but I made my bed and I'm going to sleep in it, damn it.
I also have a feeling TB's going to beat NO pretty handily, but I'm hoping for an entertaining game at least.
19 I would largely agree with…
I would largely agree with that. I don't see any way Cleveland stops them, barring turnover luck.
It struck me just now how incredibly lucky KC has been with it's playoff opponents the past two years. Last season they were nailed on to be 3rd seed, and a succession of wild upsets saw them vaulted to #2, then host Houston and Tennessee in consecutive weeks. This year isn't quite that silly, but they sure as hell were happy to be facing Cleveland rather than Baltimore this week. Dynasties can be built on such happenings.
20 This might be the first…
This might be the first offense that has truly broken the league. There is no defense I have any confidence in that can slow them down.
23 Not sure I'd go quite that…
Not sure I'd go quite that far. They have spluttered at times this year. The Patriots have certainly quietened them for long periods, and SF did a good job for most of last year's Super Bowl. It remains possible.
A bit of hindsight here, but it didn't take much imagination to see them coming out and laying waste to an average Browns defense after an extra week to rest/prepare.
I would agree they are possibly the scariest offence I have seen, in terms of their ability to explode at any moment.
25 My larger point is I don't…
My larger point is I don't even have confidence that a good defense like Buffalo's will stop this Chief's offense.
Tampa Bay has a good defense and got absolutely lit up by this Chiefs offense.
The league has legislated against defense over and over and over again that this feels like the natural conclusion.
27 If you wanted to build a…
If you wanted to build a perfect team to stop the Chiefs, it would have been the 2019 49ers.
Then the Chiefs scored 21 points in 5 minutes.
53 Nah
You’d build that Eagles team that won the Super Bowl: an offense that can go toe to toe with KC’s and an opportunistic defense that can come up with a big sack or turnover, which can be all the difference in a shootout. Every remaining team except Cleveland fits that bill. Heck, KC’s own defense fits that bill.
28 I agree that no team is…
I agree that no team is beating them that cannot at least attempt to go toe to toe offensively (barring a silly turnover fest). But Buffalo and Green Bay fit that bill, and possibly NO and TB also.
32 Here's where my worry goes…
Here's where my worry goes. If you have no chance to stop them on defense, the league that was already slanted towards the quarterback becomes even more slanted towards the quarterback. Because unless you have Aaron Rodgers or some other elite quarterback, you are going to be at a disadvantage offensively.
The stylistic variation of teams is going to look pretty meaningless if the answer to winning the super bowl amounts to get yourself Patrick Mahomes and some weapons.
This was certainly not true for the Colts during the Manning era.
31 These approximately 50 DVOA passing games are absurd
GB made Rams excellent defense look silly yesterday and now Chiefs have overcome two holding penalties for first downs. And look at this while I am typing we have a stop.
Yesterday the backbreaker was 75 yard all rushing then TD by GB led by 60 yard Jones run.
34 I don't think we can have…
I don't think we can have confidence in any team to stop the best offense of its era. But the Bills did "hold" the Chiefs to 26 when they played, which is at least a manageable total.
(And of course, the Falcons of all teams held the Chiefs to 17 a couple of weeks ago. And the Broncos held them to 22 a couple weeks before that. Maybe that was just the Chiefs goofing around against teams they didn't fear, but at the end of the day there is precedent to holding them to below-league-average point totals.)
42 That's only because the…
That's only because the Bills "held" the Chiefs to 8 possessions. 3.25 points per drive is extremely hard to beat - it's more than any team in the NFL averaged.
61 They were slowed down in the…
They were slowed down in the second half of the regular season by teams that aren't even good, like the Falcons and Broncos. When the Raiders beat them the Chiefs offense was almost completely shut down in the second half.
101 Broncos D was pretty good…
Broncos D was pretty good until they ran out of warm bodies late in the season. They are also divisional rivals so more used to playing KC.
78 "unless KC has some truly…
"unless KC has some truly tragic injuries" just came true. Ugh.
18 Anyone here have any…
Anyone here have any confidence in the Browns defense stopping the Chiefs on Offense???
22 That's true anyone can have…
That's true anyone can have an off day, but the Browns look completely overwhelmed.
This game could mirror last year's afc playoffs pretty quickly
30 In terms of consistently…
In terms of consistently forcing them to punt? None, absolutely none whatsoever.
But I could see them getting some turnovers, especially if Garrett can get into the backfield consistently. KC had 19 fumbles on the year and while Mahomes' INT% is low, he'll throw some pick-able balls from time to time. They ought to have a few opportunities for takeaways, and their only real hope is to take advantage when they come.
29 Something's not right with…
Something's not right with Mahomes. Noticeably limping.
33 Now you must eat up whole clock
Score TD end half open second half with TD, only way I see Cleveland having a lead today
35 Baker has looked good so far…
Baker has looked good so far. Pretty impressive so far
36 The Browns Just Browned
there are few things more demoralizing that losing a fumble out of bounds in the end zone.
39 Well that sucks. Still the…
Well that sucks. Still the stupidest rule in the NFL.
43 The stupidest rule is an…
The stupidest rule is an illegal forward pass being a do-over.
52 Yes it isn't objectively the…
Yes it isn't objectively the stupidest rule. But rules should be designed with as much of a sliding spectrum as possible specifically to avoid situations like that.
Personally, I'd prefer that a fumble out of bounds results in a change of possession anywhere on the field (in line with rugby/soccer).
40 The only thing worse than scoring too quickly
Is not scoring too quickly. That play was doom
44 Wowwwww, fumble out the…
Wowwwww, fumble out the endzone on a play that was 6 inches from making this game competitive again. Should have been a flag for helmet-to-helmet though, that was absolutely blatant.
I hate to say it, but that might be game over. Cleveland's going to have to play the second half down 2 scores (at least), making it hard to press their one real advantage (rushing) as the clock dwindles down.
45 The whole not reviewable thing is nuts
Clearly led with the helmet. You're looking at the replay for another reason, why refuse to notice a clear foul? And the foul arguably caused the fumble.
49 Announcers said it's not…
Announcers said it's not reviewable. Seems like it should be, though. And I thought it was pretty clear that the foul did indeed cause the fumble - he loses the ball the second contact is made, and that contact was 100% helmet-to-helmet.
51 The problem with reviewing…
The problem with reviewing penalties is you're going to get what happened with the pi penalty review. Either the refs association or the league itself has decided that they're not going to overturn penalties by a review
46 A few minutes ago CBS told…
A few minutes ago CBS told us that Myles Garrett is nominated for the Walter Payton Man of the Year award. I know no one cares about that award, but the fact that a guy who tried to cave in an opponent's skull just last season would be nominated is fully insane.
47 I guess it violates the…
I guess it violates the title of the award, but I think we should still recognize people who do extraordinary things off of the field.
I'm a little more miffed than Garrett never owned up to it though
48 Gotta play perfect to beat KC
Wonder if Reids "flaws" club will handle this upcoming half.
54 Time for a 3 hour dinner
As the Chiefs are having the Browns for lunch, game 2 is still over 3 hours away
55 Man
Have to 'like' the give up attitude of the receiver who saw the ball be intercepted and just bent over at the waist and didn't bother even pursuing the play.
I hate that stuff. You never know what happens when you trail a play. Garrett ran 40 yards earlier in the game to tackle a running back. That is how you play.
64 101 yards last night
After not running at first, someone had to run that play down
56 The sideline reporter…
The sideline reporter reported that the Browns HC said they need to establish the run game in the second half. It's kind of ridiculous that you wouldn't be trying to establish the run in the second quarter, before halftime (even if down by two scores), but the Browns went pass happy to end the first half. Then a couple plays in on the Browns' first possession of the second half, Mayfield gets picked and now KC is starting in or near the red zone. there needs to be a Scramble award for playing desperation football too early in the game.
72 They also won the flip and…
They also won the flip and deferred. If you want to employ a run-heavy offense - not a bad strategy in this particular matchup! - you want to be playing with the lead as much as possible. Why would you voluntarily hand a great passing offense the opportunity to make you play from behind from the outset? I get either decision on its own (establish the run, open the 2nd half with the ball), but they're inconsistent here - he didn't think it through.
65 What does "establish the run" mean?
Why keep the clock going when you're down and get less yards while doing it (right now: Baker 6.8 ypa, meh, vs 6.6 ypc, actually really good...for running)?
And a pass TD get's them closer!
57 Garrett still trying
Good for him. And for the Browns of course
60 Butker crazy stats
48-54 on extra points, 25-27 on FG, clearly his average FG attempt was way longer than an extra point.
63 The Bronco auto commercial
buries the needle on stupid. I keep hearing that bit about everyone being dumber for having heard this.
66 Just a reminder: pre-snap motion is free
Another cheat code the league still doesn't use as often as they should. A big reason KC is so hard to beat.
70 Mahomes very woozy, no way…
Mahomes very woozy, no way he comes back right?
73 He absolutely shouldn't,…
He absolutely shouldn't, regardless of what happens in this game. He is clearly concussed.
77 Agreed, if that wasn’t a…
Agreed, if that wasn’t a concussion idk what is
79 In the Bears/ Packers
NFC Championship game Rodgers was clearly concussed after the helmet to helmet hit by Julius Peppers. No way does Rodgers stay in the game nowadays. But then he tried to gut it out
90 And does this count as a…
And does this count as a crazy Reid decision? I mean, your QB is a bit banged up, its not a 4th down where you absolutely need it, and you run the option. You can argue the injury is fluky, but I think that's really adding some risk.
125 There’s a reasonable chance…
There’s a reasonable chance he doesn’t make it back for next week
71 Wow....this is ...a game…
Wow....this is ...a game changer obviously
74 Clean hit.
But Henne this year is 6th/56 QBs that have at least 47 plays, in EPA+CPOE composite. Mahomes is 3rd. They could still hold on!
76 I still think the Chiefs can…
I still think the Chiefs can win this game even without Mahomes though obviously it gets a lot dicier. I will be interested to see if Cleveland changes their own offensive approach now.
80 I would have gone for that…
I would have gone for that fourth down rather than kick the FG. I mean, fourth and one isn't quite automatic but it should be close.
81 Now it is much more likely…
Now it is much more likely the missed call on the fumble out of the endzone will loom large, unless Cleveland comes back and wins anyway.
83 The Browns should not be…
The Browns should not be altering their approach offensively. Their defense is not good enough to hold even the Henne led Chiefs.
85 I feel like any throw that…
I feel like any throw that sails out of bounds with no receiver in sight should be intentional grounding.
88 Yes, that would seems like a…
Yes, that would seems like a sensible rebalancing of the rules in favor of the defense.
I suppose the issue is that the throwaway often acts as a bailout for the QB to prevent them taking a hit, so it doesn't necessarily fit with the 'player safety movement'.
106 I still think that even if…
I still think that even if they allowed the out-of-pocket throwaways, just enforcing the current rule reasonably would go a long way towards rebalancing the league. Like those red zone plays where everyone is covered so the QB throws it "toward" someone but 5 yards over their head - that's intentional grounding! Back them up! I suppose they're worried about enforcing that consistently, but I don't think it's impossible to arrive at some reasonable consensus as to what is "close enough" to not be grounding.
86 Not enough urgency here from…
Not enough urgency here from the Browns for my liking.
89 Turn the tables?
Do Chiefs go up two scores and lose? I am not expecting this but this would be amazing turn of events considering what Chiefs did last postseason.
91 Hard to feel for Chiefs fans…
Hard to feel for Chiefs fans who have enjoyed winning the SB, but I can't imagine the gutting feeling of losing your star QB. Must be such a deflating experience.
92 As a Packer fan
watching Rodgers leave a game and then later learn he's out for an extended period yeah, no fun.
But what was far more galling was watching a coaching staff kind of give up and not coach to what the remaining roster 'could' do.
129 The downside of the NFL…
The downside of the NFL spending 50 years making QB the only position on the field is that even dynasties are brittle; they are one play away from irrelevance.
98 Landry is garbage
Want to be even less impressed with him?
https://youtu.be/M18Oun-TXfA
That cheap shot ended a career.
94 I wouldn’t pity the chiefs…
I wouldn’t pity the chiefs if they lost, that would be on their D. Even if he doesn’t return Mahomes gave them a 12 point lead.
100 They've also still got Kelce…
They've also still got Kelce, Hill, et al. Even Henne ought to be expected to score a few points with that offense.
96 We shall see, but I would…
We shall see, but I would not be surprised if the Chiefs come to rue kicking that FG instead of going for it on their last drive.
102 Not as much
Not as much as they regret Butker missing a FG and EP. Lead should be 9 right now.
105 Weird game
Between the missed FG, missed PAT, and fumble through the end zone, this game is starting to get about as weird as yesterday’s Bills-Ravens game.
126 Weird wind gusts here
I live 5 miles directly south of the stadiums here in KC. I had to be outside for a lot of the first half and watching through the window. Anyway there were 20+ MPH wind gust that would come from the north, west, or south. It doesn't seem like difficult weather but it's weird for around here. I'm a distance runner so I'm out in weather here a lot and having wind push that hard from three different cardinal directions is not something I'm used to seeing.
It's nothing like the buffalo game last night, but I do wonder if it's had an effect on the field.
103 Cant really blame him, though
He’s flying blind (not enough time to get a clean replay), and it’s a 23-yard gain. I’ll bet Stefanski was feeling the burn of having failed to challenge an early “catch” that would have been ruled incomplete.
114 Exactly. I thought on the…
Exactly. I thought on the quick, real-time replay they showed right before the break it looked like the tip of the ball might have hit the ground when his hands were off it, and I'd guess that's about all the Cleveland review guys saw before they had to throw the flag. Seemed like a reasonable gamble to me, even if on further/slow-mo review it turned out to be complete. Add in the pressure after being too slow to challenge the more clear incomplete earlier, and I can't be mad at trying to take the big play off the board there.
107 When you see the opposing player
setting up like a fair catch on a pass play that is not good
108 WOW that was a terrible…
WOW that was a terrible throw by Henne.
The Browns might actually pull this off.
110 Crack back block call was…
Crack back block call was strange. Horrible throw by henne
111 That might have been the…
That might have been the most unbelievably, inexcusably awful interception I have ever seen. He threw it like it was meant to be a hail marry.
112 It can't happen can it?…
It can't happen can it? Browns vs Bills in the AFC Championship Game? Is hell about to freeze over?
113 I feel like this game has…
I feel like this game has played out how DVOA expected, plus Mahomes injury. Even with Mahomes, this game was competitive. Both teams had a lot of offensive success and did virtually 0 success on defense. The difference in score was mainly due to the fumble out the back of the end zone. We’re talking a 2 point KC lead when Mahomes left if it weren’t for that 1 fluke play / bad call (glad I don’t have a fan base pissed off because I couldn’t see that live).
I’ll take the Bills in the AFC Championship at this point, no matter what happens or who wins this one.
115 You are that confident in…
You are that confident in the Bills on the road against a healthy Chiefs team? I'm not.
232 I’m not predicting a blowout…
I’m not predicting a blowout or anything like that, but I’m comfortable that the Bills are better than the defense-less Chiefs. If Mahomes doesn’t go, then I’ll predict a blowout.... I sure hope that doesn’t happen though.
121 "Even with Mahomes, this…
"Even with Mahomes, this game was competitive. Both teams had a lot of offensive success and did virtually 0 success on defense. The difference in score was mainly due to the fumble out the back of the end zone."
The Chiefs could easily have had more points if they had finished a few more drives or simply hit their FGs and XPs.
131 True, but
against the 25th ranked defense by DVOA, Chiefs didn't look like world-beaters even with Mahomes. Chiefs really cooled off at the end of the season, finishing a surprising 6th in DVOA, and they didn't flip the switch like many assumed they would today. The Bills are really, really good.
145 Yeah
I’m disappointed the Browns couldn’t pull that out, but I’m still where I’ve been at since December ended: if the Chiefs play like they have for the last two months, they’re going to lose. Even before Mahomes left the game, they didn’t look like a team that had suddenly flipped the mythical switch.
Should be a good one, though!
234 I think you hit it on the…
I think you hit it on the head. Assuming that a team will suddenly kick back into gear in the playoffs is an assumption that has rarely proven true in NFL history. And in this first game, that clearly didn’t happen.
249 I watched a different game, apparently
At no point did it look like the Browns had any shot at winning. When Mahomes was in, it was a seriously 1-sided game. And when he went out, the Browns didn't look like they were doing enough. I mean, they couldn't stop an offense led by Chad Henne!
253 I’m not sure what game you…
I’m not sure what game you were watching, but the game I was watching included 0 touchdowns on the final 6 KC drives and was decided by 5 points without considering the highly likely 7 points that the browns would have had if it weren’t for the fumble out the back of the end zone.
116 Good stick on that third down pass
but Browns do it again on 4th and short
119 What are the Browns playing…
What are the Browns playing at running on first down? Awful.
120 YOU ARE NOT GOING TO PUNT…
YOU ARE NOT GOING TO PUNT WITH 4 MINUTES LEFT ARE YOU KIDDING ME
EDIT: Ahem. I'm better now. I guess they're figuring Henne literally can't do anything - which seems at odds with what we saw last drive, even if it did end with an almost comically awful interception. Is forcing a punt with non-negligible time left more likely than converting 4th and 8 (I think it was)? I suppose objectively it is, but I'm skeptical in this exact moment.
124 That was an awful series. If…
That was an awful series. If you are going to burn clock with early down running plays in that scenario you have to be prepared to then go for it. Dreadful.
130 One of the reasons they…
One of the reasons they should have gone for is that it's a five-point game. A FG would be bad but would still leave you down by one score.
146 I say this all the time
Also, when you defend a short field, the other team can’t chew up the rest of the game.
123 I love to see what analytics say.
With 1 timeout you may never get ball back. You need a stop anyway so with a 4th down fail KC can not ice game with FG.
i must think you are correct that punt is terrible call.
132 Very close call
https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/status/1350939245645602821?s=20
143 ...the bot thinks they'd…
...the bot thinks they'd have an 8% chance to win if they attempted an 85 yard field goal there?
167 With some bump for the…
With some bump for the likelihood of a defensive foul, like running into the kicker or holding.
128 That second down sack is not…
That second down sack is not exactly a disaster for KC... Certainly much better than an incompletion.
133 Henne almost rushing 1st!!!
LOLOLOLOLOLOL HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW?
Don't waste a timeout KC
134 Oh wow, good spot by the…
Oh wow, good spot by the refs. I thought for sure the refs spotted him too short, but replay shows they pretty much nailed it.
135 Andy Reid just runs away…
Andy Reid just runs away with the Playing To Win The Game award right there.
150 Tony Romo cackling about how…
Tony Romo cackling about how badly he had been fooled was great.
Comments
262 comments, Last at 19 Jan 2021, 5:19pm