Super Bowl LV Discussion

I'm super excited about this one.  It should be an incredible matchup.  I love Mahomes and The Chiefs but I struggle to see how this is anything but a slugfest that could go either way.  The DVOA for The Bucs shows a much harder schedule, you can't run against them, the Chiefs have the 2nd worst run D in the league, they may have a better lineup all around.  Reid and Mahomes adjusted recently by taking what is underneath but I don't see White and David letting that happen, all while JPP (How is he playing at this level still?) and Barrett tee off on you.  Oh and then you also have to contain Vea, Suh etc.

Not having Winfield might end up mattering, but I think this comes down to Pressure as it often does.  If Brady is forced into a few bad throws that he got away with vs Green Bay and they don't get as many turnovers as they have as of recently it's The Chiefs.  But I think TB is going to pound a really bad run defense, and take deep shots vs a secondary that only has a few playmakers.

Ronald Jones I think has a big game.  5+YPC and explosive

I fully expect the Brady voodoo to continue, meaning the Chiefs offense which lit up the Bucs last time will inexplicably struggle. Maybe it's karma for Mahomes winning the SB MVP last year despite his up and down play.

I have a question about a season-long trend. I feel like I've seen more players handing the ball back to the ref after the play is over than I saw in seasons past.

Could be just what I'm observing. Maybe, with less crowd shots available, cameras stay longer on players. Or the particular games I saw had a few running backs that just do that as their regular thing so I saw it more often.

Or maybe there has been an increase, and it can be explained by something else. Player's Association guidelines, new batch of coaches, maybe the refs got together before the season and sent out flowers to all the skill position guys.

Anybody else notice this? I feel like it went up from like 60% to 80%, so the difference is subtle, but I noticed it over multiple weeks, hence my question.

I have really gone back and forth on this one.  My brain keeps telling me to pick the Chiefs, but my gut keeps telling me to pick the Bucs.  My gut also told me the Bucs were going to beat the Packers and the Saints, but I ignored it.  So, this time, I guess I'm going to listen to my gut, and say:

Tampa Bay 31, Kansas City 24

Ordinarily in a Super Bowl where I have no rooting interest, I mostly just want to see an entertaining game. Not this year, though. I want the Chiefs to crush the Buccaneers, see them driven before them, and to hear the lamentation of their women.

Not expecting it, though. I see this game going similar to last year's, except these Bucs are better than those Niners: the Bucs build a lead with a lot of runs and some well-timed long receptions, and while Mahomes et al. will eventually do their thing to come back, it won't quite be enough this time. Bucs 31, Chiefs 28.

• Buccs Win, Brady MVP, Brady 220+ Pass Yds, Fournette 1+ TD (+500)Specials - up to +500

• Brady MVP, Tampa Bay to Win, C.Godwin 1+ TD (+500)Specials - up to +500

• 15-21 (+450)(101) Kansas City Chiefs 

• 29-35 (+260)(101) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Buccaneers by 10-12 points (+1400)(101) Kansas City Chiefs @ (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• 40-49 (+400)(101) Kansas City Chiefs @ (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Yes (Scoreless Quarter) (+385)(101) Kansas City Chiefs @ (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Field Goal (+175)(101) Kansas City Chiefs @ (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Under 50 (+215)(101) Kansas City Chiefs @ (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I bet $500 total on a whim, so I will likely win big or lose big depending on how this plays out.   Based on the actions of Reid's embarrassing son and the distractions derived from that, I expect the Bucs to dominate, but mainly to coast to a comfortable victory.  I see the defense shutting down KC with Bowles changing things up in the secondary.  The Bucs' front four being dominant is the main key for all of this.

Brady will do what he tends to do.  I see Mahomes having a rough day...

I see it something like Bucs 30 Chiefs 17

... and deliver Tom Brady the ass-beating he should have taken against Atlanta. Chiefs by double digits. As pointed out above, the Bills were better than the Bucs, and the Chiefs beat them easily. 

That non intentional grounding call is utter bullshit. I just don't get how you can get away with it.

Boring game so far. 3 possessions and no points.

3 points,  yay

somehow

Brady to Gronk. What is BB doing right now?

passing at least 1/7 for 3 yards.

This looks Seattle defense against Peyton Manning on Denver.  TB is all over every pass.

Both teams have been getting away with some blatant offensive holding. It seems the nfl official policy continues to be ,"Holding Schmolding"

hate to see one wasted so early

Wow it was the right call but huuuge swing play.

Chiefs with the goal line stand!

Just hearing the joy and excitement in Romo's voice with that potential TD/potential 4th down stop was great. 

IDK why they didn't call it and review it.

Surprised they didn't sneak it on 4th tho

Didn't blitz there? Like the one time you wanna blitz Mahomes.

KC may want to revisit this "All Mecole Hardman, all the time" gameplan at halftime.

So KC still playing possum?????

Amazingly, the dropped snap was that guy's best punt of the day.

Wow

29 yard punt! Not good.

I always thought there had to be, like, actual holding to draw a holding call. 

Interception but defensive holding.  Offside on FG 3rd time is the charm

Gronk scores #2 td!

The holding call on the INT was total trash. Cannot believe they called that.

truth was there the whole time-- right in front of you. This is a lame KC team so far-- making mistakes all over the field. Can't imagine the Britt Reid thing helped. I know they make incredible comebacks all the time-- but right now they don't seem capable.

My bets for the under 50 looks great!

KC's low scoring output is masking that they've had quite a few opportunities that were just barely missed - slightly overthrown long pass to Hardman, Kelce's long drop, to name two - and that's never going to hold up all game, with this team. If anything, they ought to be encouraged that they've taken TB's best defensive shot, as it were, and they still didn't really stop them as much as they stopped themselves.

I'm less optimistic that KC's defense will ever stop TB's offense, though. They really needed a big play like that pick that was called back for nothing.

Chiefs look good on that drive but stall in the RZ and have to kick a fg. 8 point bucs lead.

...this game is in the books.

The Bucs defense is not going to let up on Mahomes.

That rush is amazing.

Kicking FG's may have already doomed KC...

I don't know, I think if I'm KC I go for it there. Worst case, you're basically just giving it to TB where you would on a kickoff anyway - and if you make it, you also get the ball to start the 2nd half, this game could turn around real fast.

KC?

Huge DPI there

Absolute malarkey DPI. Uncatchable AND incidental.

AB scores! 15 point lead! More like 30 points considering how the defense has played. 

The Bucs defense isn't giving up that kind of lead...

Over.

Brady is killin it

Kneeling to go into the half. 

I guess if theres any team capable of coming back, it's KC. I will be fascinated to see their offensive approach in the second half. 

Brady has played outstanding so far but KCs defense is rightly getting exposed now that they aren't playing with a lead and now have to defend every look.

Bucs D deserves a lot of credit. Timely blitzes have not burned them and they've done a good job stopping Hill.

KC's required halftime adjustment:

Find the switch and flip it.

Halftime guys rightly calling out these refs.

They aren't on the take, obviously - but it's long been theorized that "home field advantage" is mostly that their calls favor the home team, and, well, the first half here is a big pile of evidence in support of that.

I really hope they make some contingency to never have a home Super Bowl team again. Whether it's booking a couple of contingency locations every year or just moving it permanently to a neutral size, this is really not acceptable. Maybe just have it in Hawai'i every time.

They seemed to mostly want it as a shiny carrot to entice city governments to shell out for new stadia, but that ship appears to have mostly sailed at this point. Other than building a new Super Bowl Palace someplace teamless......

Wonder how long after this game the Brady Bunch meme with Tahhhmy in the middle and the eight officials in tonight's game around the perimeter will show up.

Gonna need a lot of Jet Wasps to get outta this one.

C-O-M-P-O-S-U-R-E. Right now, the Chiefs don’t have any. They’ve basically handed the Bucs 11 points by losing their minds, committing dumb penalties, and taking dumb timeouts. They need to pull themselves together and take it one play at a time. If they don’t, they’re T-O-A-S-T.

If TB forces a turnover early in the 3rd the similarities will be even more nuts.

Of course I've said most of the year how similar 2020 KC and 2020 GB were. Now they carry it to the post season. Both teams starting back-ups at tackle against the Bucs. Both teams with middling defenses that make some plays but can't get consistent pressure. Both offense with "uncharacteristic" drops and misses on offense that really are the result of what TB is doing on defense. Both teams giving up longer drives at the end of the half. Both teams failing in the redzone and kicking a FG.

Of course Brady is playing better in the first half than he did against GB and KC is worse on offense in part because the GB line was better, even though it got whipped. Mahomes has made some plays with his legs that Rodgers didn't but he's facing even more pressure. GB did adjust and the offense did play better in the second half despite failing to do anything with all the turnovers. But they also didn't get nearly as chippy on the field as KC has been getting. 

The penalties are different though as KC is getting called for shit that TB didn't called for against GB. Though some of the emotional reactions that have burned them are all on them. 

KC can make a game of this. They are similar to GB in a lot of ways, but they are more explosive. CEH wasn't bad in his opportunities and GB clawed back into things after getting down 28-10 with some decent running and then taking the big plays when they were there. But this is not unexpected. Like I said in the preview. KC's offense will not look like what we are used to. I underestimated the TB front 7 earlier in the season but I learned my damn lesson.

I know he is a great player but the number of completely uncontested catches Kelce gets is amazing.

The contested catch against David was such a contrast to his previous catches. One can only assume that the scheme is designed to create this level of separation but you wonder if that is how the D coordinator wants the coverage to operate.

The move by Antonio Brown for the TD was first class.

If this all KC can do, this game will just be death by a thousand paper cuts.

I'm pretty disappointed with romo this game - multiple times he's talked about double teaming hill.  Especially when it's not relevant to the result of the play, there must be better things to do.

Also they did a feature on Thomas as the official who called the 4th and goal stop, and she very definitely didn't make that call, it was the line judge.   I assume that one is on the producers, but can they say least be honest.

Fournette scores, and TMQ wrote the words "game over" in his note book

Come on KC, at least make it look decent. 

Welp. 

1) at least we scored touchdown by now   2 of them actually

2) brady ain't gonna throw three picks tonight

3) La Fleur and Pettine have company

Has every successful franchise suffered a grisly defeat at the hands of Tom Brady,? I guess only the Broncos have not

to win more than 1 SB.

Mahomes and company imploding

Is it too early to say DVOA 1, fudging the numbers to agree with conventional wisdom 0?

I would not have waived #PlayoffLenny!

Mahomes finally breaks 100 yards passing, with about 1 minute left in the 3rd. Would not have expected that.

This reminds me of the old 2005 (?) Seahawks-Steelers Super Bowl! Ahh, good stuff! Just like we came to see!

Going to keep harping on this because I'm grumpy: that was more blatant DPI on TB there than KC had on either play of that 1st half drive, or the "holding" that took away the Brady pick.

No flipping the switch says Dandy Don.   The switch is jammed at OFF