Week 10 Open Discussion

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 10 - Thursday Night Football sees Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (6-2) visit the Miami Dolphins (2-7).

Big Sunday games include Atlanta (4-4) at Dallas (6-2), New Orleans (5-3) at Tennessee (7-2), and Cleveland (5-4) at New England (5-4). Kansas City (5-4) visits Las Vegas (5-3) on Sunday night, while Monday Night Football sees the L.A. Rams (5-2) at San Francisco (3-5). Use this thread to discuss them all. 

Comments

197 comments, Last at 16 Nov 2021, 1:05am

1 1st

on the Thursday thread

2 Ravens

Ravens sjoudl cl;obber tje Dolpins tonight. Raiders angle is race for 1 seed. If even ravens get it no big deal Raiders can beat them in Baltimore. If Ravens were to lose tonight, then Raiders path to 1 seed gets slightly clearer

3 Raiders 1 seed?

In reply to by Raiderjoe

They have the 8th hardest schedule remaining and aren't even currently 1st in their own division.

6 Did Miami really kick a FG there?

They had another down. They easily could've ran another play. The last one only took 4 seconds off!

And the Ravens kneel like cowards. Both teams 10/10 in cowardice there. SMH

8 Oy. Tua clearly can't grip…

Oy. Tua clearly can't grip the ball and it's flying out all over the place. Do they really not have a 3rd string QB?

9 Every time I've seen Tua…

Every time I've seen Tua throw this year, it seems he has no arm strength at all.  It looks like Mac Jones and Mike White throw harder than him.  Is it really that he can't grip the ball or is it something else?

61 I wonder how healed his ribs…

I wonder how healed his ribs really are. His throwing motion is totally hinky compared to what I remember of last years'.

Yet they won anyway. If this becomes some kind of narrative about Tua leading them to victory, well...

118 At the time I took…

At the time I took mehllageman's comment to be about Tua's general noodle-armed-ness, but rereading that and your comment here, a lingering injury makes a lot of sense. I haven't seen him play much (that might have been my first time this year), but I don't remember him being so weak. Maybe he never had the proverbial Peyton Manning laser-rocket arm, but what I saw yesterday was limper than even Minshew ever was. No one's getting drafted in the 1st round if that's what they've got when healthy.

13 I'm starting to wonder if…

I'm starting to wonder if the entire AFC East is going to have Chad Pennington Lite for QB... except for the Bills, who have Josh Allen the Lesser.

14 Tua bomb! To Waddle!Tua…

Tua bomb! To Waddle bomb!

Tua-Waddle, Burrow-Chase, and Hurts-Smith have all been fairly successful so far (or at least, not complete failures). I'd bet drafting the QB+WR college combo will be a Thing for the next few years.

15 Watching that sequence of…

Watching that sequence of flags, incomplete soft tosses and Big man with football intermittently with the Garbage Day Massacre in the background is perfect.

If only one of these guys was named Chip.

18 What's the record for most…

What's the record for most 3rd and goal plays on one possession? Apparently that was the 4th here.

19 Best big guy TD ever.  Not…

Best big guy TD ever.  

Not an eligible receiver, so called back, but still the best ever - one-handed catch at the 8, then rumbling forward and finishing by going airborne while extending the ball across the goal line as he's hit.

20 It was amazing, so glad I…

It was amazing.

So glad landing on his head didn't injure him either. That was a little scary, but he was still rotating so a lot of the energy was still in that and didn't transfer through his neck.

22 That Sound You Hear

Is the AFC Machinery in the process of an inexorable shift toward Foxborough and Bill Belichick...And why not? Bills have won one game in a month; Titans don't have their best player; North and West look likely to play Whack-A-Mole for the rest of the season with no team dominant.

23 The Patriots are going from…

The Patriots are going from the 31st ranked schedule to the 11th in DAVE, while the Titans have the 3rd easiest schedule.  I'm thinking the only dominant teams in the AFC are going to be Yakety Sax or Garbage Day.

If the Bills throw Mike White in the wood chipper this weekend, they'll probably find room for Mac Jones in there too.

24 Could be. The Patriots don't…

Could be. The Patriots don't look like an amazing team but everyone else in the AFC seems highly flawed.

DVOA likes the Browns as the second best team in the AFC even before this game. If the Ravens fall far enough after this game the third best team in the AFC by DVOA could be... Indy. The AFC looks wide, wide open.

26 Oh yeah, the AFC looks…

Oh yeah, the AFC looks pretty wide open, and I wouldn't count out Indy.  But I'm thinking the final results in the AFC may end up being really absurd and unbelievable.  Hence, Yakety Sax or Garbage Day.

30 And if for example

TENN is #1 Seed

NE, PITT and LAC win the divisions

BUFF, BALT and KC are the Wild Cards

Tell me who you got for the SB??  My head hurts....

35 Pitt won't win the division,…

Pitt won't win the division, Rothlisberger will break down the longer the season goes on.  Figure it's LAC or CLE for the AFC championship game, since the Footballs Gods are obviously drunk and need High Comedy Entertainment.

25 What an unexpectedly…

What an unexpectedly entertaining game this has been. Bizarre to see Miami's defense dominate like this. Still time for them to blow it, thanks to the offense being so worthless.

33 This has been very…

This has been very entertaining, and we'll see how this episode of Thursday Night Incongruity ends.  Unfortunately I am no long simultaneously watching Silent Night, Deadly Night 2, and Yakety Sax is out of the question since I need to double check/edit a radio program that is more competent but less entertaining (It's poetry, but not as beautiful as Tua almost handing the ball off the wrong way).

Wait, is his 'weak arm' an act?  That was well thrown.

37 Wow, I had a comment all…

Wow, I had a comment all ready to go about how Tua is too injured/bad for them to even try to make a first down there, and then they faked myself and all 53 Ravens out of their socks with a little fake and toss to the most open possible receiver. The kicker, of course, is that looked like a kind of poor throw too - but the guy was so open he could adjust to pretty much any throw catchable by humans.

64 Tua made one good throw…

Tua made one good throw during that drive, and the TD wasn't it. If the Ravens had put anyone on him, that's not a TD, but since there's no one of that half of the field...

 

How do you NOT account for the motion man there?

40 Looked like Gaskin was…

Looked like Gaskin was intentionally trying to go down there. If so, smart!

Honestly, MIA may as well kneel til they can kick the FG.

Or, they could do that.

I suppose a 12-point comeback in 2:19 is less likely than an 8-pt one with ~40 seconds left. But it feels fairly close.

45 On which play? The first…

On which play? The first down run? If so, I'm not sure that is a good decision. There's almost no way the Ravens would come back for two TDs with that amount of time left. They would have a better chance of forcing a fumble and winning that way. I think you would rather have the TD.

48 Yeah, the first down run…

Yeah, the first down run. Fumbles on plays like that are so rare, and they'd have 1st and goal from inside the 1. Run QB sneaks and you probably have that 2-TD lead anyway but with even less time on the clock, or else you get to kick a FG and make them try to score and get the 2pt conversion with 40secs and no timeouts. It'd be interesting to see some numbers, but I'd bet going down increases win probability (albeit from like 98% to 99%).

46 Lamar Jackson is going to…

Lamar Jackson is going to end this game with much better conventional stats than his play deserved. That will help in his MVP chances.

55 Vegas Had it Right

Lamar was something like 12/1 entering this game-- he'll be even higher after it... Brady/Stafford/Rodgers/Allen/Murray are probably the top 5, but who knows?? Prescott can;t be ruled out, either...

50 This game has not one but…

This game has not one but two candidates for the Quick Reads worst receiver of the week: Hollywood Brown with a 6-37 on 13 targets line, and Mike Gesicki, who failed to catch a pass on seven (7) targets. Ugh.

51 Dolphins have 4 very…

Dolphins have 4 very winnable games in a row coming up..that could get them to 7-7. Probably not gonna get into the playoffs though,  with games against Saints and Titans looming.

52 Ravens finally got burned

Turns out you can’t play with fire multiple times a month and get away with it every time. 

54 Look at Ravens Schedule

It would not shock me to see them end up 8-9 or 9-8 and out of the playoffs entirely.

Away to CHI-- hardly a gimme after tonight

Home to CLEV

Away to PITT

Away to CLEV

Home to GB

Away to CIN

Home to LA RAMS

Home to PITT

They could easily lose at least two of those home games, if not three; and must play all three divisional opponents on the road..

To be fair, Steelers have no cupcakes either after the Lions at home this weekend, and the Browns have to play away at GB and NE... truth is, 10-7 probably will win the North...

 

57 Here's a Question

How many of the eventual AFC playoff teams will have at least 7 losses?

I would put the over under at 4.5   It is hard to imagine more than one or two of them getting to 12 wins-- at BEST  Maybe the Titans-- but I can't really see another team  gonna be a cluster F between 9-8 and 11-6

60 Plea

Could we please have separate threads for at least Thursday and Sunday?

66 Haha

In reply to by Raiderfan

No.

-Them telling me the same thing every week

68 I feel like it's set up for…

In reply to by Raiderfan

I feel like it's set up for this now. Because the game-bar on the top, for every game there is a designated "Discussion" button. But currently they all lead to the same thread

76 What do you want them to do?

In reply to by Raiderfan

They would use up all of their open threads before the end of the season, and then where would we be?

77 ?

You think they have limited amount of threads they can make on the internet?

80 Obviously

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

They probably buy a case of open threads at the beginning of each season.  Thus they have to be rationed properly to last the season.  Why do you think they don't have more open threads, despite it being such a common request?  Maybe we could all chip in for a second case...

65 8.5 spread

And it was Miami that was able to cover that number entirely. 

71 There are no dominant teams in the AFC

ARI, GB, TB, DAL, and LAR are all better than any team in the AFC (yes I know TEN beat LAR but I don't care).

The AFC is pretty much at this point 12 teams ranging from "very good" to "average" that could make the playoffs, clearly inferior to the NFC's Big 5 but on par with or better than the NFC's 6 and 7 seeds.

74 Roethlisberger is out on the…

Roethlisberger is out on the Reserve/COVID list as of last night.

Loser League still lists him as not out, but don't pick him.  Still hoping it gets updated so I can pick Mason Rudolph before kickoff.

75 Bills lose Zimmer to IR,…

Bills lose Zimmer to IR, Edmunds to a hamstring injury, and Lotuleilei to COVID in the span of a few days. Really big hole up the middle for the Jets to exploit if they try. 

86 Derrick Henry would like a word with you

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

The best healthy RB. And his line deserves a lot of credit.

Don't get me wrong, I love him, but I have had my heart broken by Henry too often. I really don't think anybody's within spitting distance of Henry when he's healthy. 

90 Rule of 370

At this rate of efficiency, Taylor will never approach 370 touches, which is a nice side benefit he's probably aware of every Monday morning--I believe he has yet to run 20 times in a game this year. And keeping his work load moderate is good for the team and his longevity.

91 Not 20 rushes

In reply to by Bobman

But it's not needed when hes got all the yards already. 

But he has 20+ touch games when you factor in his better pass catching. As he catches that weird flip from Wentz.

110 Usage

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Taylor had 10 carries and 94 yards on the first two drives, Indy was up 17-0 (not that it was all him, but 10 of those points were largely his doing).  Now it's mid-3rd quarter and he has all of 15 carries total for 107, and they are holding onto a somewhat tenuous lead. 11 points, but is anybody really comfortable with that? I'm not.

I suspect there is a relationship there between his usage and the size/reliability of their lead.

153 Dupe

In reply to by Bobman

17 for 58 and 0 TD too

79 The Chubb-less Browns gouged…

The Chubb-less Browns gouged the Patriots on the ground on their first drive, getting to the NE 3 with mostly running plays before having to spend four downs to make a TD. Brings back ghosts of the wild card round last year.

81 Looks like the teams that…

Looks like the teams that played shocking well or unexpectedly poorly last week are returning to form. The Jags have already surrendered more points than they gave up all last week. The Bills have scored more then they managed in that game themselves. Dak and the Cowboys have just about done more in the passing offense then they did against the Broncos.

83 With Roethlisberger out this…

With Roethlisberger out this becomes one of the best chances for the Lions to win a game the rest of the season... Their other best shot is a game against the Bears. The only other two teams below .500 they have are Minnnesota and Seattle, which are both better than their records indicate.

84 Play Action in Reverse

As a Colts fan I am not used to this concept, but right now it seems like the only reason they pass is to set up the defense for Jonathan Taylor to rip off 20- and 30-yard runs.  Keep the D honest.  Like play-action, but in reverse.

Let's do some basic math here... 54 rush yards on the first possession, times 10 possessions... carry the seven, round off, divide by the square root of pi... that's like 540 yards for this game and a 10 yard average.

Just a guess, but probably not sustainable. Fun to watch, though.

89 Interesting coaching from…

Interesting coaching from McDermott. Singletary fumbles while untouched on a sweep play. Instead of benching him immediately as he would ha e done last year, mcd runs the next play right to him for a 7 yard screen. 

92 Patriots blasting a team…

Patriots blasting a team DVOA had as second best in the AFC going into the week... Yes, they are a serious contender in the AFC. The rebuild took all of one year. This is like a horror movie where the monster that was finally killed at the end of the last one is revived within the first five minutes.

97 Yeah, but most of that was…

Yeah, but most of that was on mediocre TEs and stocking up on a whole shelf-full of WR3s, so not sure that should even count.  Judon counts, though.

The rebound seems to be mostly tied to an improved DL (Judon + Barmore) and better DB play from the young secondary.  Oh, and the QB, who together wth McDaniels is making Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers looks like viable WR options.

99 Plus COVID holdouts

Didn't NE also have a handful of starters take a pass on last year due to COVID? That would also skew 2020's results downward, making the rebound that much more stark.

BB is amazing.

171 Almost 15% of the total NFL…

Almost 15% of the total NFL's Covid opt outs were patriots players. Hightower, Chung, Cannon, and Bolden were probably the only important ones. 

Also, Cam Newton is a shitty quarterback. Mac Jones *isnt*

134 When healthy, PFF had Hunter…

When healthy, PFF had Hunter Henry as one of the best TE’s in the game. It’s just that he was never healthy. And stocking up on above average WR’s might actually be a fairly smart move, sort of depends what’s available in FA.

165 You could be right.  Just…

You could be right.  Just having Bourne on the field instead of Harry seems to have helped create space.  Can't see a lineup of Bourne, Meyers and Agholor scaring anyone, but presumably NE is building for next year, not this year.  Would be hilarious if their rebuild low consists of a single 7-9 season

172 The Patriots are a very good…

The Patriots are a very good team at this point - and DVOA just hasn't really caught up yet. Jones has improved substantially with play time, and they've opened up the offense a lot. And Judon is getting really comfortable, and rookie Barmore looks like a star. 

Their week-by-week VOA/DVOA is all over the place. -30% against Miami, -40% New Orleans, -20 against Houston,  +40% against Tampa in the close loss, Similar I imagine against the Cowboys. Really high the last two weeks. 

I'd bet when DVOA comes out this week, they're up in the top 10 with about +14% total.  And in a couple weeks they're sitting outside the top 5. 

176 FO stats reckon their…

FO stats reckon their schedule gets quite a bit tougher. Although a chunk of that was DVOA's inexplicable love affair with the 2021 Browns, and, well. But that 4-game stretch with the Bills twice, the Titans, and the Colts looks rough, and I worry that the late bye week might mean they lose too many players to attrition late in the season.

That said, they've obviously playing really well right now, and Belichick teams always seem to get stronger after their first few games. Barring major injuries, I'd be surprised if they don't make the playoffs, and with the AFC as open as it is they could make a little noise.

181 The schedule definitely gets…

The schedule definitely gets tougher - but they're a much better team than they were the first couple of games. 

 

 

I think the team that took the Bucs and Cowboys to the wire, and curb stomped the browns is what people should expect going forward - not the team with no offensive line that struggled with Houston. 

 

 

Jones is accurate as fuck, and has fantastic touch - and BB can do a lot with that, good special teams, good defense, and a good running game. 

94 Some of quality offensive…

Some of quality offensive football in Indy. There have been 6 strait punts, 3 by each team, without a single first down. 

96 16 rushes and 7 passes at…

16 rushes and 7 passes at the half for Detroit. It's got to be a long time since a team had twice as rushing as passing attempts through a half.

104 Why the Colts Deserve to Lose Today

I'm not a very forgiving person, nor am I very nice.  I expect a certain level of organizational competence, probably too often. When the prime directive is basically DFU and somebody F's-up, I get grumpy.

So Indy settles for a FG with about 2 minutes left before the half.  Disappointing, but given their offensive struggles it was the right call on 4th and 2.  They kickoff and force a 3-and-out by Jax, with about 1:30 left.  Yay!  Perfect opportunity to put a nail in this coffin by adding another score before the half. They have a seasoned QB, a good OL, good RBs, and a pretty high scoring O.  So what do they do?  Go 4-and out, punt away, and give Jax the ball and 3 TOs with about 50 seconds left.  One 24-yard pass, an 8-yard scramble, and then a couple incomplete passes and Jax ends up looking like the seasoned, competent, opportunistic, better team with a FG just before the half, plus the ball to start the second half.  Ugh. I don't blame the D so much as I blame the offense.  In that situation, you have two jobs--score if you can, but by no means do you give the ball back before the half.  Conceivably, before Indy touches the ball next, what had been a 20-6 game could be a 20-16 game.

Then again, he says with full sarcasm mode cranked to 11, the passing game has worked so well for Indy so far today that it was clearly the right call... sigh. 

106 The Pats are starting to…

The Pats are starting to remind me of the early 2000 Pats. Smart, tough defense that really doesn't seem like it should be that good, efficient offense that spreads the ball around. They won't be a true contender unless Jones develops (which is not guaranteed), but they look like solid. 

173 Why doesn't the defense seem…

Why doesn't the defense seem like it should be good? 

Its basically the 2019 defense, minus Gilmore, but with a better defensive line, a much better pass rush, and JC Jackson is significantly better than anyone in the secondary was (other than Gilmore)

109 Atlanta

How low can their DVOA go??  Can they hold that 7 seed another week, they sure need a lot of help.

116 Josh Rosen sighting! And he…

In reply to by jheidelberg

Josh Rosen sighting! And he threw a pick on his first pass.

The only team that I think can pass them by record for the 7th seed this week is Carolina, who kind of stink and are playing at Arizona. Maybe Cam's got some magic this week, but I'm not gonna bet on it. Not sure how the tiebreakers shake out with Minnesota, Seattle, or SF, but I predict all 3 will lose this week (famous last words?). So, one more week might happen!

They're pretty much toast after that, though. That schedule got nasty in a hurry.

145 Oh, I missed that. He's…

Oh, I missed that. He's awful, though, so that doesn't really help their cause.

Or, well, it seemed like it wouldn't...

2 touches, 2 TDs for Cam. I guess he had some magic after all. Him mixed with some PJ Walker throws and a direct snap to McCaffery into a 3-headed QB monster the Cards have no answer for so far.

114 NE Special Teams

This doesn't really show up in the boxscore, but there were two punts that NE let drop, only to get downed inside the 10. Both of those ended up being 99 and 92 yard TD drives for the Pats, so it didn't end up mattering in this game, but that's still an awful lot of field position given up by the special teams. Anyone know how that counts in special teams DVOA? Are those Cleveland bounces predictive, or random? 

115 Interesting

In reply to by Independent George

They might have happened because NE regular returner is out and the replacements are not used to fielding punts.

128 Colts in Red Zone

Indy's inability to score TDs will doom them, likely in this game.  They're up 6 with 2 minutes left--a classic death scenario. Better than being up 2, but not much when your D has been folding late in games all year. They NEEDED a TD there.

120 Wow. A 10:26 drive from…

Wow. A 10:26 drive from Washington to close Tampa Bay. The run of heavy favorites losing that started last week continues.

121 Pittsburgh has punted twice…

Pittsburgh has punted twice from midfield with under 5 minutes left in a tie game. If ever the Lions deserved the favor of the Football Gods, it's now.

UPDATE: Detroit punted from midfield with 35 seconds left. Favor withdrawn.

And PIT just opted to kneel out the last 20 seconds.

If it's clear neither team actually wants to win, they should just skip OT. And make them both wear dunce caps on their helmets for the rest of the season.

132 Dunce caps?

You mean NFL-approved Nike dunce caps, right?  No sense racking up a $10,000 uniform violation fine just because you're an idiot.  Then again, maybe that's the only reason....

122 Tuned into NO-TEN late. NO…

Tuned into NO-TEN late. NO just scored to come within 2 points - apparently, it would be tied but they missed two extra-points earlier.

The two-point conversion fails, in no small part because of a false start coming out of a timeout. Can't say they deserved to win after that...

 

124 I’ve been mostly watching…

I’ve been mostly watching the Lions this year out of morbid curiosity, and by that standard this game has not disappointed.

154 Yeah, I know it was the Jags…

Yeah, I know it was the Jags, but they had been moving okay in the second half. As you said, the Colts 4th quarter defense with a lead this year has been abysmal. i was fully expecting a Jax TD with minimum time left on the clock.