Week 11 Open Discussion

Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 11 - Thursday Night Football sees the New England Patriots (6-4) visit the Atlanta Falcons (4-5). Notable Sunday games include Indianapolis (5-5) at Buffalo (6-3), Cincinnati (5-4) at Las Vegas (5-4), and Dallas (7-2) at Kansas City (6-4). The Sunday night game pits Pittsburgh (5-3-1) at the L.A. Chargers (5-4), while the N.Y. Giants (3-6) visit Tampa Bay (6-3) on Monday night. Use this thread to discuss them all.

Comments

85 comments, Last at 23 Nov 2021, 8:19pm

1 Use this

to discuss TNF you mean?

Either way the leading rusher for each team

Damien Harris: 4.789 ANY/RA

Mike Davis: 2.943 ANY/RA

Bonus - Cordless Phone: 4.45 ANY/RA

2 When comments extend to second page

I have a lame workaround.

i use an iPad which allows multiple open windows, so I open one for page 2 as soon as I see it and leave it open after reading existing comments.  Later, I can go back and hit reload and all the new ones are in yellow.

I agree with multiple commenters that separate pages for each day would be a very welcome addition.

3 Team's favored by more then…

Team's favored by more then a field Goal on the road in TNF are 8-10-1, and rookie qbs are 7-23 on TNF could be a trap game 

4 Troy Aikman just said

Troy Aikman just said NE has its QB “for the next 15-18 years.”
 

Are you serious? It’s barely halfway through his rookie season and you’re anointing him a Hall of Famer? ffs. I have low expectations for Troy but that was just… awful

16 Jones is already solidly…

Jones is already solidly above the Dalton Line, and he's only twenty three, so in fifteen years he'd be thirty eight.  With QBs lasting longer, that's not too unreasonable a standard.

17 Again, you’re practically…

Again, you’re practically anointing him a HoF halfway through his rookie year. Let’s slow down! Do you realize how few QBs played 15 years on one team? Manning and Montana didn’t do it!

5 Got that Josh McDaniels…

Got that Josh McDaniels special. Hit the Red Zone and then immediately got to a heavy set and run the ball right into the center's ass for 1 yard. Twice.

15 You know, if you really…

You know, if you really think that Robert Kraft and his "Globalist" (or whatever antisemetic euphemism you currently prefer) cabal are orchestrating a giant conspiracy to fix games, and that's making them unwatchable for you, you could just, you know, not watch.

 

Or report them to the FBI or something.

8 this could be closer

The Patriots aren't blowing the Falcons away like the Cowboys did.  They're just making fewer mistakes.

The Falcons only had one reasonably successful drive in the first half, and after they got 3rd and very short close to the 10 yard line, they shot themselves in the foot with the sack and the penalty.  

 

10 AJ Terrell

I have a running argument with a friend (both Falcons fans) that we should've drafted CeeDee Lamb over AJ Terrell.

 

Pro Football Focus keeps putting out all these stats about how awesome AJ is in coverage. I was thinking well, if you look at the rest of the Falcons secondary, you would avoid even an average NFL cornerback, so AJ Terrell could just be average.

 

Anyway with that pick of Poise Jones he's officially an elite CB 100%. My friend was right all along.

12 the pick-6

In today's chat, Tanier talked about taking the parlay with the Pats winning and scoring a defensive TD.

When Josh Rosen came into the game, suddenly that seemed like a much better bet.  :smile:

 

 

13 Holy crap Josh Rosen

Man. Just so sad.

Lol and Felipe Franks too!

The SB absolutely destroyed them.

14 At first I thought that…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

At first I thought that second consecutive pick was Rosen, and that that would be the last pass of his NFL career.

Though getting pulled for Feleipe Franks probably doesn't bode much better for his continued employment.

18 As a Bills fan, I remember…

As a Bills fan, I remember the "hey, they drafted the wrong Josh" comments.

 

Man, am I ever glad they didn't take Rosen. Holy crap, that INT was awful.

21 Zigzag Wanderer

It's interesting to see Belichick's reno of the Pats coming into focus. Since Brady's last season, and probably even earlier, Belichick has been headed toward a heavier, ball-possession, ground-attack offense, all to exploit the increasingly mobile, but lighter defenses across the league. Last season COVID opt-outs, Cam's inaccuracy and mental mistakes, o-line injuries, and a general lack of skill position talent really handicapped the approach but it's clicking now.

PFF did a really interesting film breakdown of how the Pats slow down things on offense in ways that negate the speed of contemporary  Ds.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-new-england-patriots-bill-belichick-mac-jones-offense-defense-2021

 

24 That's a great article.  The…

In reply to by RobotBoy

That's a great article.  The defensive part is interesting as well; they need the interior linebackers to take on the guards by themselves.  Tells you how important Hightower is to their defense.

76 Yeah

It's why Belichick keeps drafting bigger LBs and has to hope they can be adequate when they drop into coverage. And why the Pats struggle so often covering TEs and RBs.

23 Wondering what the non-Baltimore world thinks of Jackson out

What is he out with?  Non-COVID 19 illness.  This is the third week of the season in which he has missed some practice time now a game.  One game, like the kind in a few years that he will be paid over $2M in which to play or in this case not play.

The Ravens are an honest and classy organization, but this sounds like highly classified BS.  The truth will come out sooner or later, on the other hand covering anything up would seem absurd to me and beneath the high standards of the Ravens organization.  What do you guys think?

41 an honest and classy…

an honest and classy organization

None of them are. Don't put anything past any franchise.

It definitely raises a red flag, especially since Jackson already got COVID twice and expressed "vaccine hesitancy" even after. And I have no trouble believing a team would simply opt not to test players, having seen many lose stars to mandatory quarantine, declare "it's not COVID," and dare the NFL to prove their malfeasance.

THAT SAID, it is flu season, and it's likely they just got that. I don't know if there's a general tendency for flu to hit worse as you get older, but after mostly shrugging it off my whole life I got knocked out for a week by the flu a few years ago. I'm older than Jackson but was still vaguely in the "NFL player age" range (non-Brady division even) at the time. Maybe there's a strong strain going around the Baltimore area.

I also hope it's not a staph infection. You'd think they're cleaning everything pretty thoroughly these days, but everyone should've been cleaning things thoroughly even in the Schiano days, so... And if they had a private workout or pick-up b-ball game or something at a private facility/home, it could've happened there. Reports of staph infections seem to trickle out later (e.g., JJ Watt a few years ago - though you'd think it would come out eventually if the Ravens' cases are severe enough they're missing games), but staph is common enough and scary enough that I start to worry about it whenever it's not clear it's something else.

26 Cody Ford is an abomination…

Cody Ford is an abomination and Buffalo is going to get blown out if they don't bench him. He is singlehandedly killing our offense again and again. 

27 Colts Fast Start

Oh don't worry, I am super excited to see Indy up big early again, but I am pretty sure they will find a way to fold in the 4th quarter.  Or, more likely, tie and lose in OT to one of the top teams in the league, again.

Man, I have GOT to do something about this bitterness.....

35 The Bills are completely out…

In reply to by Bobman

The Bills are completely out of sorts today, you don't haVve to worry. We gave you two free 3rd down conversions on the FG drive, then fumbled the ball right back to you for a free TD. 

37 Blow it how? We can't stop…

Blow it how? We can't stop shooting ourselves in the foot. We had two potential scoring drives derailed by mistakes inside FG range, and our only TD came after review saved us from an INT. 

Edit: with a 2nd and 5 to convert into the red zone, Allen whiffs two easy throws and then we miss the field goal. We're done for the day. 

65 I'm sure people will call it…

I'm sure people will call it reductive, but Cody Ford tanks the whole thing. Not only is he an individual liability, but they move Williams outside when he's in. Daryl Williams plays very well at guard, but awful at Tackle. Allen is turnover prone when pressure comes from his right.

 

Cody Ford has started 5 games, including 3 of our 4 losses and 4 of our worst 5 offensive performances. When he's in, Buffalo is a bottom 3rd offense. When he's out and Brown is in, we're a top 3rd offense. Just look at our week to week DVOA inversely correlated with his snap count. 

EDIT: I should bring the receipts:

Offensive DVOA w/ Cody Ford in:
Pitt: -21.7%  DVOA

@MIA: -19.8% DVOA

WAS: 31% DVOA

JAX: -83% DVOA

IND: TBD

w/ Cody Ford out:

HOU: 13.1% DVOA

KC: 74.4% DVOA

TEN: 14.4% DVOA

MIA: 12.2% DVOA

NYJ: 46.3% DVOA

66 I don't disbelieve you, but…

I don't disbelieve you, but how can a single OL have that much impact on performance? Even switching QBs doesn't usually cause that much dropoff. When there's a known weakness, you can usually adjust; how does that result in 6 points vs Jacksonville? A team that's good enough to be that good without him ought to be good enough to be at least respectable with him in the starting lineup, and not... put up 6 against Jacksonville.

Like... even the infamous Winston Justice game was about way more than Winston Justice. He was just the most noticeable cause of their misfortune.

70 All I can say is "watch it"?…

All I can say is "watch it"? Even just watch the Jags-Bills highlight package (https://youtu.be/AaaDe6Z5vOM) and see how many busted plays came from Ford (74) losing his individual blocks or Williams (75) failing to read a wide man and letting him in free.

2:03, 2:25, 3:30, 3:44 and that's as far as I want to go with it today, but there are plenty more. 

I mean, Williams at RT is a huge problem too but at least he is above average at RG. Ford is a massive liability at RG and he makes Williams and to a lesser extent Morse worse on either side of him. 

69 That's a pretty crazy split…

That's a pretty crazy split. I've not watched a lot of Bills this year, got to see parts of their first 3 games but very little since, which sucks because they were a fun watch even if I was mostly casually watching.

Does McDermott have the McCarthy disease of "My 5 offensive linemen will do the job" and if they clearly aren't is still unwilling to use his TE/RB to help or to change to quicker passes / more rollouts to help?  Even with Rodgers and his ability to pull off crazy stuff (an ability he still has but isn't quite as good with) there were times in the past, like the Marshall Newhouse experience, where one offensive lineman really could tank the whole offense.

I've also seen the player shifts like you mentioned make things worse than if they didn't move players and just put the back-up or 3rd stringer in. The whole 1 really weak spot vs 2 weak or slightly weak. I'm glad that the current Packers coaching staff does not suffer from offensive line failing blindness. I've named drop Adam Stenavich before and I'll do it again what they've managed with the injuries this year... But LaFleur does change the play calls and protections when the line is struggling. It doesn't always work and he doesn't always respond quickly enough, but he does continually try and McCarthy basically didn't and it could be painful.

I know Allen has improved basically every year (even if his stats aren't as good this year), but he can still have "Bad Josh Allen" days (I remember "bad Brett Favre" days). You mentioned he has issues with pressure from his right. Have you noticed a break down in footwork in general when Ford is playing? I've seen that happen with younger QB's too (I'm honestly not sure how Homgren managed to coach it out but he did with Favre). But if Allen is still having to concentrate a bit on some of the fundamentals, and footwork and staying on platform seemed to be an issue he had, if he is worried about the pressure even when it isn't there and the fundamentals are slipping a bit I could see that impacting too. With a cannon like he has if he is shifting his eyes to check the rush (no real way to tell watching on TV) it's easier to still believe you can make the throw but being even just a little off can kill you. Is he pulling the ball down quicker before he scrambles or is he still looking to throw right up to the line before fully committing to the run? That makes it easier on the D if he is removing the threat of a pass even just half a yard earlier. Rodgers, who is not the runner Allen is, didn't scramble as well with some of the crap lines because of that, he would just give up and go, giving the LB and Safeties and extra step or two basically.

Sure there could be a lot of other issues, but I've seen enough and you've presented enough that I'm curious if the Cody Ford effect is the primary source. I can't remember if Ben Muth has covered the Bills this year or not, I think it's just the Browns, Chiefs, and Steelers. I know he had them last season a few times I may have to revist those.

I'll have to try and keep an eye on this since I'm really curious now. Thanks for digging up those splits!

73 Does McDermott have the…

Does McDermott have the McCarthy disease of "My 5 offensive linemen will do the job" and if they clearly aren't is still unwilling to use his TE/RB to help or to change to quicker passes / more rollouts to help?

Kind of. In a few games, we've gone to spread sets almost exclusively and they refused to change when it wasn't working. The Pittsburgh game comes to mind, but since the bye we actually have been using some extra linemen and more full back plays to get some power going. When we try it, it seems successful to me but I haven't really broken it down in detail.

You mentioned he has issues with pressure from his right. Have you noticed a break down in footwork in general when Ford is playing? I've seen that happen with younger QB's too (I'm honestly not sure how Homgren managed to coach it out but he did with Favre). But if Allen is still having to concentrate a bit on some of the fundamentals, and footwork and staying on platform seemed to be an issue he had, if he is worried about the pressure even when it isn't there and the fundamentals are slipping a bit I could see that impacting too. With a cannon like he has if he is shifting his eyes to check the rush (no real way to tell watching on TV) it's easier to still believe you can make the throw but being even just a little off can kill you. Is he pulling the ball down quicker before he scrambles or is he still looking to throw right up to the line before fully committing to the run?

Confession: I am not a QB mechanics expert, just a loudmouth fan. But to me two things stand out:

1) Allen has an almost philosophical refusal to protect the football. It doesn't matter if two guys are bearing down, he's still waving it around in one hand.

2) Allen does not roll out and reset. Once he breaks the pocket, he's either throwing on the run or he is taking off.

So the "right side pressure" thing kind of impacts both of those issues. Even if there is pressure coming right at him in his field of view, he will not protect the ball - which makes it easier for a rusher to swat it out of his hand. Kwity Pawe did that today.

If he does try to break the pocket to the left, he won't stop and reset so rushers can charge on him without fear that he'll stop and throw it over them. He broke the pocket to the left today on 2nd and 5 and the guy covering Knox broke off to attack Allen. He tried to do a little Mahomes' backhand and Knox dropped it because it came in so low and behind. If he had taken a second to slow down and pivot his shoulders, he could have had Knox easily for a first down+. Also, rushers know they can attack his upfield hand - TJ Watt ran him down from behind and forced a fumble that way.

78 Awesome thanks! When I get…

Awesome thanks! When I get some time, with the NFL packaged highlights on YouTube giving you access to nearly every play and with your notes on tendency, while it's limited angles with those, I can watch and get a better feel for just how big an impact he has. I'm not a pro at watching film or the game by any means but I think I've got enough experience to see if one player really is the majority of the issue. I've seen enough with the team I watch the most closely to believe that it could be. It would suck if it was, having just one link in the chain be the reason you go from a clear SB favorite to damn they might not make the playoffs is no fun at all and is not necessarily easy to fix either because that weak link may still be the best option. Ugh.

29 Crosby!

Never pay ST beyond a year ahead

43 He can't kick a ball that…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

He can't kick a ball that isn't perfectly held. The miss this game the ball was not perfectly vertical. The miss last game the laces were about 15 degrees off from where they should be. Yes it's very little things, but he doesn't adjust at all anymore. I think after that 2012 season he basically started making sure his mechanics never changed and he just had to trust the rest of the unit. It mostly worked for 8 years.

Borojquez seems limited as a holder, he seems to be able to correct bad rotation OR deal with bad snap location. Can't seem to do both. Snapper seems o have no consistency.

So the snapper and holder are limited. Crosby can not adjust to things not being perfect. Other kickers can, this is a Crosby issue. But Crosby isn't changing at this point, so fix the snap and holds or this doesn't stop. It the snap and hold are good, Crosby will still make 90% of the kicks. It's they aren't, well we've been watching it....

74 Holder questions

I don't know why the punter has to be the holder. I remember when teams usually used the backup QB. QBs are far more used to handling the ball than the punter. I'd like to try out Love or maybe Cobb to be the holder. Bojorquez is the best punter they've had in years, but that doesn't make him a great holder. 

77 My guess is the limits on…

In reply to by justanothersteve

My guess is the limits on practice time. The back-up QB and WR need to get their reps in with the offense. The 3rd string QB probably has the time but then you would have to have him eat one of the of 46 active player spots on game day.

I agree I wouldn't mind seeing a different holder. Bojorquez's punting has been like the only bright spot on special teams this year, and he's pulled off multiple punts this season that are things we used to only see once a season at best. So yeah I'd be all for a different holder, but I think one of the side effects of the players getting limits on practice time (which I do think is better for their careers so I'm good with it) is that there just isn't the time for anyone outside the specialist trio of long snapper/punter/kicker to get the reps in. Though when the reps are obviously not enough, as the Packers seem to be show casing, then you need to do something.

79 Holder

Belichick covered that in his ten minute talk on long snappers a few weeks ago :).  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrvELlakyOk

30 Some interesting/surprising…

Some interesting/surprising scorelines early. Colts and Wentz leading and performing well against the 1. defense. The Vikings leading by two TDs and, incredibly, the Texans doing the same against Tennessee is surprising but perhaps a little less surprising to anyone who looks at DVOA.

31 Jonathan Taylor

He's 3 yards away from hitting 100 scrimmage yards and a TD in 8 consecutive games, tying the NFL record (Tomlinson/Mitchell). IN the first half. Against one of the league's top Ds.

32 Harbaugh should have gone…

Harbaugh should have gone for it there. Kicked on 4th&2 in a 0-0 game. There was less than three minutes until halftime, so Baltimore has less chance to do something with the ball if it forces a quick punt, but still a mistake.

39 The Titans have more total…

The Titans have more total yards and a higher per play average so there odds of coming back are pretty good. They aren't really being badly outplayed.

40 Eagles

Eagles about to go 6-6, with their next 5 games against Giants x 2, WFT x2 and the Jets. Could they.....

71 Nelson he is not

MVS 4 on 10 for 123 and 1 TD
Rest 19 on 23 for 262 and 3 TD

I just don't know if all those attempts to him are worth it. Dude can burn you, but 40% vs 82.6%.

I'm really curious about what MVS DYAR will be, and how much it came from the 75 yard TD....

44 It takes all of two plays…

It takes all of two plays for Andy Dalton to pass Fields' passing yardage total and to take the lead. A lot of that was thanks to a whole bunch of yards after the catch.

45 The Texans had a 13-play…

The Texans had a 13-play drive that took 7:24... and covered just 40 yards. That's incredible.

 

After a muffed punt they do end up scoring a TD. Eight minutes into the second half and the Titans haven't seen the ball yet. The chance of an upset is becoming more and more real.

46 which RB in Cowboys-Chiefs

I have three of the running backs in this game and need to start one.  Who will fare best for fantasy between Tony Pollard, Clyde Edwards Helaire, and Darrel Williams?  Any thoughts?

50 Titans go for it on fourth…

Titans go for it on fourth down from their own 26, correctly. They get it but throw a pick a few plays later.

53 I've been moderately baffled…

I've been moderately baffled why the Packers seem to have Savage covering Jefferson one-on-one so much. You, uh, obviously can't call it a success, but he has generally been in position to make the play, much moreso than I would have predicted. You can't blame Minnesota for going that way again, but like I said it's not like Jefferson was just torching him, he was in position to make the play - and finally did. Packers' ball with 2 minutes left and a chance to go ahead.

UPDATE: Nevermind, incomplete. Vikings ball. Still a nice play, though.

67 I wondered too, but I will…

I wondered too, but I will give the broadcast credit for doing a good job illustrating the zone man concept the team runs. I think part of Savage ending up on Jefferson had a lot to do with Minnesota attacking the defense with a good plan to make that happen frequently and because of limited TV angles I don't think I would have realized it without them covering a few plays in detail so kudos to them for that.

The Thielen/Jefferson "stack" concepts they kept rolling out worked a lot. Not every time there were multiple times where it was covered and Cousins didn't even attempt to target one of them and there were a few incomplete attempts, and as the game went on the GB DB were jumping the routes better. But it worked at a high rate and MN stuck with it until GB could stop it. The coverage was generally solid even when it was beat. I'm giving credit to MN for attacking the defense better than anyone has the last 3 weeks.

Like you said Savage wasn't horrible and that near int (it was sadly a good overturn) illustrated that too. Hopefully Barry can take this film to help teach how to prevent it in the future. It does look like it needs a couple good route runners, but other teams have that. Of course other OC can look at too and imitate the attack plan, which I hadn't really seen against GB before, so the chess match is on. I've really enjoyed watching the defense since about game 4 when it felt like the players were getting the system. Now they know it and don't make a ton of mistakes so this is a good chance to see how Barry does in another aspect of being a D coordinator, responding to someone finding a weakness and showing it off to the NFL world. Yeah Stokes had the one big coverage mistake they highlighted not knowing who to follow but I'm still going to call that a rookie mistake, and he has rarely made those twice.

This could be a game where Green Bay loses with the better DVOA. The missed FG is worse for ST than the missed XP so that will drag them down a bit more. But GB had 8 penalties for 92 yards vs 3 for 25 and I think most of those are penalties that DVOA doesn't cover. GB had better yards per pass and better yards per rush and only a slightly worse 3rd down conversion percent. Also GB only had 1 fumble to 2 for MN. So yeah DVOA may say the Packers played a slightly more efficient game in what was basically a tie game. That should make oaktoon happy to see them on the other side of a result like that.

54 Wow, it looked like the…

Wow, it looked like the Titans were going to come back and win but a third pick sets up the Texans to go up by two scores, already in FG range.

55 Dangit, I hate that CBS…

Dangit, I hate that CBS Chicago forces me to watch Andy Dalton try to lead a 2 minute drill instead of showing GB-MIN. 

ETA: Whoah, TD throw on 4th and 11. I'd still rather watch GB-MIN, though.

58 Welp

Packers lose. Deserve it for kneeling into the the half

63 Almost everything going the…

Almost everything going the Patriots way. The Ravens do pull it out but the Bills and Titans have awful losses. About five weeks ago the Patriots didn't even look like a playoff contender. Now they look like they a potential favorite in the AFC and can move up farther with a win over Tennessee next week.

81 Got to start there from…

Got to start there from Thanos' speech, because no one in New England wants those first couple of sentences to happen.  "In time, you will know what it is like to lose.  To feel so desperately that you are right, but yet to fail, all the same."  They also don't want to hear Ebony Maw, but nobody wants to listen to that guy.

64 The Jets have now had THREE…

The Jets have now had THREE separate QBs come in and outplay their starting QB and ostensible future of the franchise... He's a rookie, but if he can't come back and outperform a nobody, a career backup, and an old Joe Flacco, it's a very bad sign.

68 Closing minutes of the 1st…

Closing minutes of the 1st half, the Cowboys punt. Refs call an admittedly justifiable taunting penalty on the Chiefs, but completely ignore a blatant and dangerous facemask call on the Cowboys. 

ETA: Nevermind. Refs huddle up, and call the facemask for offsetting penalties. Chiefs get a short field with three timeouts and a little over a minute to go.

ETA2: Sack/fumble on the first play, Cowboys recover on the KC 40 yard line with 1:30 left and two timeouts.

ETA3: Dak is intercepted in the end zone.

That is a wild finish to a half largely controlled by the Chiefs.

83 A hell of a fourth quarter…

A hell of a fourth quarter. It's gone from "I guess I'll leave this on, the Steelers could theoretically come back" to "Pittsburgh could actually win this in regulation, maybe" to "the Chargers are hoping for overtime" very quickly. And now the Chargers are back ahead... With still plenty of time for more developments.

84 What happened was a changing…

What happened was a changing of the guard.

In the past, the Steelers franchise finds a way win that game and the Chargers franchise finds a way to lose it, which is why the Steelers were perennially a playoff team and the Chargers were perennially almost a playoff team.

Or I may be assigning excessive significance to a small set of almost random events that don't really tell us anything about the franchises or their future, other than that LAC is now more likely and PIT is now less likely to make the playoffs this year.