Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady

Week 3 Open Discussion

Week 3 kicks off with Sam Darnold and the Panthers looking to stay undefeated against Davis Mills and the 1-1 Texans on Thursday night. Somehow, there is only one game all weekend featuring two teams with winning records: Tampa Bay (2-0) heading to play the Rams (2-0) in L.A. on Sunday afternoon. The Sunday night game sees Green Bay (1-1) visit San Francisco (2-0), while Dallas (1-1) hosts Philadelphia (1-1) on Monday night. Use this thread to discuss them all.

Comments

119 comments, Last at 28 Sep 2021, 4:07pm

1 I'll suggest it at the top:

I am once again asking for you to consider multiple discussion threads so we don't have to deal with faulty second pages and overall clutter. 

The Texans continue their 2020 Jags slide/tank, after a week 1 divisional win, and Darnold continues his (re)surgent campaign against another fraud/cupcake.

2 This is an amazing picture…

This is an amazing picture of Darnold. It looks like he's expecting that pass to result in disaster and trying to use the Force to pull it back.

32 It twas

In reply to by kramerthefirst

For most people too. Might've made more sense if they played him more on the interior but...*kanye shrug*

4 Reverse Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger throws the ball 3 yards downfield regularly, Mills 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage.  Carolina appears to be aware of this, it looked like Carolina defense knew exactly what was coming

5 2022 Bengals

Gonna be mighty interesting with Joe Brady

58 Would love to see Brady…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Would love to see Brady reunited with Burrow and Chase, but with two wins already the Bengals might have gotten off to too good of a start to get Taylor fired by the end of the year! (And Mike Brown is not looking for excuses to fire anyone.)

6 McCaffrey Out

With a hamstring problem.

second the request for multiple threads for discussions.

7 So far every shortage play…

So far every shortage play for the Panthers is just trying to power it straight ahead. They might get away with that against this defense (though they're not doing great so far), but they're gonna need more imagination going forward.

10 We Will See

Well, we will see but I am thinking the Panthers’ reign atop the DVOA chart is going to be short.

13 It won't last once opponent…

In reply to by Raiderfan

It won't last once opponent adjustments kick in, but it might yet last through this week.  Mills had a good final drive of H1, but a 3 INT H2 seems like a real possibility if HOU goes away from their run first, run always approach.

A lot will depend on whether Darnold stops putting the ball on the ground scores some points to force HOU away from their "wait for a penalty or a turnover" approach to offense.  In other words, if CAR's O is even modestly successful in H2, I suspect their D will have a great H2, which should keep them in good shape overall, DVOA-wise.

15 Wasted a TO

Have the cojones to commit one way or another and save that precious incase of a disaster. 

18 With little else to…

With little else to contemplate during this excruciating game, I spent too much of this evening wondering what the heck Aikman was going on about and wondering what he really meant.

"I've always liked this guy."
Translation: I saw him warm up during pre-games and he seemed nice.

"His coaches really think highly of him."
Translation: There are only 53 roster spots and they gave him one of them.

"A lot of people think he's going to be a good one."
Translation: I mean, his parents probably do, and likely some of his friends believe in him.

"I've been following his career for a while now."
Translation: The guys in the truck sent me a stats pack on him during the last commercial break.

"I've always been high on this guy."
Translation: I don't often watch game film, but when I do I get stoned first.

"I got hit in the head like that when I was a rookie."
Translation: Stop making fun of me.  You try blathering to Joe Buck all night after a few concussions.

"I didn't realize that was Lovie under that beard."
Translation: Have I mentioned QBs got concussed a lot back when I used to play?

"That's why we didn't run the quarterback sneak, I wasn't tough enough."
Translation: Honestly, I can't remember if we did or didn't, but that looked scarier than a concussion.

"He's taken way too many hits."
Translation: I'll stop now.

19 Aikman:  This is must see TV…

Aikman:  This is must see TV. Please translate.

I have no idea what he was talking was it this horrifying game or next week’s awful game?

Excellent translations I must say.  Please try the one I just gave you.

20 "Where's the felony" in…

"Where's the felony" in reference to a Ravens penalty in the MNF Raiders game might've been the oddest announcer slip-up (with the inevitable Ray Lewis/Rice jokes that come with the Ravens.)

Ryan Clark made a "butt booty naked" comment in reference to Carl Nassib just this last game, with...unclear connotations.

26 They don't get any younger than this

Lincoln High School in Ypsilanti, MI announced that they've hired Gase as their offensive coordinator. The high school is located in Gase's hometown.

With his $5M per year from the Jets, he must be the highest paid high school employee in the United States.  

 

28 The highlight of the week…

The highlight of the week isn't the only game with two teams with a winning record, it's the only game with two teams with a losing record!

The Battle of the Bums, Atlanta at the Giants.

Who will choke harder? Which mode of failure will come out on top? Who can climb the highest yet crash the hardest? Is there a new depth one of these teams can sink to?

I'm rooting for a tie, with points scored by both teams in ot. That seems to me a fitting end.

29 Patriots / Saints

Very interesting match today....BB without Brady and SP without Brees

33 32 before the first Sunday game

Baker sails two passes here on the first drive and takes a sack on 4th. Rough

And takes another sack on 4th

34 KC 85

Rough play on that INT

37 Chiefs appear to be…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Chiefs appear to be shredding the Chargers defense, but they have two turnovers now so no points. The Chiefs defense looks shockingly good based on how horrible their DVOA is thus far. And I don’t just mean by result, the coverage looks tight and they’re playing the run hard. Tough to predict the outcomes of games like this. 

35 How quick field position can flip

After a lost fumble was overturned on replay, the Lions had a third and 6 just past midfield. Baltimore got a sack, the punter shanked one, and Lamar hit Mark Andrews on the very next play to put the Ravens in Detroit territory. 
 

And now Tucker just missed a ~50 yarder after Harbaugh opted not to go for fourth and 3/4. 

38 Does Darrell bevell know the…

Does Darrell bevell know the opponent is allowed to blitz? Arizona is getting free rushers whenever they want. The kid is gonna get killed against a real defense 

41 I know that there are a…

I know that there are a number of Lions fans on here.  How do you watch this horror show?   Two false starts on different 4th and 1 plays, blown coverage on 3rd and goal from 14 for Ravens TD and penalty nullifying turnover on a penalty and Marquise Brown always open , often dropping.  Ravens have missed FG have played awful at WR and O-Line and lead 10-0.

This is awful football, Lions simply more awful.

42 JAX returning a missed FG…

JAX returning a missed FG 109 yards for a TD is awesome!  JAX missing the extra point afterwards is even more awesome.

In non-fun news, NE's James White's career may have come to an end today.  Great player for the modern era of football.  His six full seasons (minus a few games missed here and there) is probably as long a career as a top tier RB can reasonably hope for.  Don't let your children play RB.

54 Yeah.

I get allowing Prater to set a career high, but if you don't have faith that you can stop a return, then don't do it.

Thankfully, the defense killed Lawrence to the tune of 2 INT and 2 FF...

Game.

109 Expected Points

In reply to by DIVISION

If he makes that kick 1 time out of 3 then ExPts = 1

2 out of 3 times the Jags are returning it. 7 pts if they score (assumed - they actually missed the PAT). I make it that they would have to have roughly a 20% probability of any given return going for a touchdown, for them to have a higher ExPts than Arizona.

There is risk there but I am not sure many teams return 1 in 5 from there.

56 Giants fans.

My jeweler/watch repair guy is a Giants fan.  I told him last year that Daniel Jones wasn't the answer and that his team has no talent.  

A year later, not much has changed.

 

63 Chiefs Regression.

I said this in the off-season that they would have a major regression.  Few believed it.

Their defense is last in the NFL and their offense is making critical mistakes.

You can't turn the ball over when your defense can't stop anybody.

50 I was going to make a post…

I was going to make a post about how the Ravens and Chiefs were a combined 1-3 in games not played against each other, then the Ravens pull out a miracle win. Incredible. Still a poor performance for the second time in three games for Baltimore.

However... The Lions got hosed. On the next to last play there was a clear delay of game. There's always an instant after the clock hits zero where the referee has to check to see if the ball was snapped, but this was longer than that. Bad refereeing.

51 Yep.  There was a good two…

Yep.  There was a good two seconds after the play clock hit zero before the Ravens got the snap off; the back judge chose a strange time to take a nap.  I doubt they would have Tucker attempt the resulting 71-yard field goal.

Of course, this being the Lions, they would have given up the touchdown on the hail mary anyway.

84 Hosed for sure

Absurd finish Watkins catches pass and instead of taking a few extra yards towards the sidelines and getting out of bounds, he goes up the middle.

The Ravens absolutely did not get that play off in time.  They got to the line in plenty of time to get the play off in time.  The official responsible for calling a delay of game was asleep.  

Before that, the Ravens needed the 4th and 19 conversion to Watkins thanks in part to two sacks that Jackson should avoid and heave toward the sideline.

On the prior Lions drive:

1. Harbaugh foolishly does not call timeout before the two minute warning which would have saved 12 valuable seconds.

2. The Ravens waste a timeout on a challenge of a catch that was clearly a catch by the Lions, no one on earth could have thought that would be overturned.

On the flip side of ineptitude, the Lions needing a first down to win, run 3 plays up the gut, gain virtually nothing and leave the Ravens over a minute on the clock.  This was only the third Lions drive of the second half, each of the first resulted in touchdowns, the Lions were moving the ball at will. 

Forget what the odds say of the Ravens scoring, they have Justin Tucker, I do not believe any model is taking this into account, the yardage that they need is a different standard than other teams when only needing a FG.  ESPN model gave Lions 63% chance of winning AFTER kicking the FG, this off the street kicker was hardly automatic from 35, so that the odds were even lower just playing for this kick.

The Ravens will dominate DVOA with no opponent adjustment at 6.8 to 4.8 per play, but I doubt that DVOA will take into account the key play early in the game, when Ravens punt returner Duvernay fumbles the ball recovered by the Lions, called back as a Lions punt team member stayed out of bounds for too long and gets flagged, nullifying the play.  On the next play the Ravens get the ball returned to their own 35 and go 65 yards for their only TD.

Harbaugh will likely make a rare appearance on EDJ Sports bottom 5 coaching decisions by not going for fourth and two at the Lions 31.  Instead he takes his automatic 49 yard FG, again the model will not take into account that it is Tucker, but it is still a bad decision.  Then Tucker misses the "automatic" kick.

This was bad football, someone had to win, and in the end the Ravens despite dominating the statistics but needed to convert 4th and 19, an awful referee call (or lack of call on delay of game) and a 66 yard FG on the last 3 plays to win.

 

 

 

119 Delay of Game?

In reply to by jheidelberg

While it was clearly delay of game based on the play clock CBS had, I had seen a few people say they were at the game and there was actually 3 seconds left on the play clock when the ball was snapped.  Can anyone else confirm this?  It would make sense based on no visible reaction from Lions coaching staff or players on the field at the time.

With as many players as the Ravens have out right now (15 on IR, 4 on Covid list, and a few other injured players simply inactive like Stanley and Wolfe) they just need to not ruin their season and hope they improve as they get guys back.  Obviously other players will get hurt, its just the nature of football, but as long as you have a team QB'd by Jackson and coached by Harbaugh you'll have a shot.  Oh, and having Tucker certainly does not hurt either!

67 Actually...

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Make it Gettleman for hiring Judge. Still crazy that month ago people were hyping up Judge for going 6-10 in a garbage division because they almost beat the Bucs. Absolutely WILD.

106 There are some reports that…

In reply to by StuffedWhiteRabbit

There are some reports that there was a missed delay of game on the Ravens before the kick, but it's likely that the official game clock was different from the broadcasted clock.

108 Why would they...

.... broadcast a different clock to the official game clock?

Surely TV don't have their own timekeeper, otherwise differences would be more than a split-second.

55 What an interesting MN drive

I'm not complaining! There was some great play calls and time usage there by Kirk and company! Ends with a TD with 16 seconds left in the half!

Now is Seattle going to shrivel up and kneel like cowards? They don't! And they get close! How splendid to see such a thing!

59 Vikings win.

I predicted that this would be a high scoring game with Seattle coming up short.

It's the Vikings home opener and they can score with anyone.

Arizona's defense is better than Seattle's...

As long as Minnesota can keep Kirk upright, they'll score enough to beat Seattle.

65 Seattle.

With all the money they're paying Russell Wilson, they have to go cheap on both lines.

They're paying premium money to a safety to play like a LB because they have no pass rush.

Even the hardcore Seattle fans are getting tired of Pete Caroll's antics.

 

57 Encouraging performance for…

Encouraging performance for the Rams at the half. Stafford has looked a bit shaky with the deep balls, and a few inaccurate throws. However, the defense does not appear to be regressing to the mean. 7 points, 10 if they make a long field goal, is an extremely good performance against this Bucs offense.

60 We'll see about those Rams.

Not impressed with the offense, but Stafford has calmed down to complete some passes.

The Bucs look sloppy overall which is a continuation of how they've been playing to start the year.

A one score game is still anyone's game.

Rams need to win this to keep pace with Arizona.

66 Rams/Bucs.

Watching this game, I'm more alarmed by how poorly the Bucs are playing in all phases than what the Rams are doing.  They're running their game-plan, but it's nothing spectacular.  Cooper Kupp is definitely a receiver that should be double-covered at this point.

Cards are going to have their hands full next week.

71 Vikings

Should've passed with 2:04 left. Instead it was a loss.

73 I hate the current Overtime Rules

I'm really annoyed that both teams in the Miami-LV game kicked a FG. I don't believe you should be able to go for a tie in Overtime. So here's my new proposed Overtime Rules. 

Much is like it used to be (not currently)

  • Fifth Quarter clock is set at 15:00
  • Each team gets two timeouts
  • All plays reviewed in booth
  • If Team A doesn’t score on first drive, standard Sudden Death until end of Fifth Quarter. 

Changes

  • You cannot go for a tie score. Ties can only occur if neither team scores.
  • Both teams get at least one possession.

Procedure

Team B kicks off to Team A

If Team A doesn’t score on first drive, standard Sudden Death until end of Fifth Quarter as stated above. If Team B scores first (defensive TD or safety), game over. This is same as before. Otherwise: 

  • if Team A scores on first drive, game clock is only kept for statistical purposes. Play clock is same.
  • if Team A scores a Field Goal on first drive, Team B must score a TD to win. Otherwise, Team B loses. 
  • if Team A scores a TD, they can only go for the Extra Point. Team B must score a TD with the Two Point Conversion to win unless Team A missed their XP.

At least Miami-LV didn't end in a tie despite both teams kicking FGs. 

75 I disagree

Problem with college rules is some game have ended with four or more OTs. The rules I've proposed requires either one possession for each team or a sudden death game that will only go 15 minutes. It adds strategy to the OT coin flip as teams may prefer to see how the other team does much like college. The difference is if your opponent scores on the first possession, you must outscore them or lose. Far simpler than a 5 OT game. 

77 Eh

In reply to by justanothersteve

Nothing wrong with multiple back and forth tries. They're much quicker and don't end in ties. Not sure how that's simpler than each team getting a chance. Do away with ties altogether. 

78 I'd just let regular season…

I'd just let regular season games end as a tie.  We don't need overtime for regular season games - if the teams tie, they tie.

Playoffs I'd play a full 15 minutes quarter, and if still tied another quarter after that.

110 This

I’ve never quite gotten the obsession in the NFL with ensuring that regular season games are not tied. Ties happen in most other major (non-American) sports and can lead to much more interesting scenarios at the end of season standings. 

89 If the game is tied and the…

If the game is tied and the clock runs out in the fourth quarter, play continues as normal (i.e., the quarter does not end) until one team scores, at which point the game immediately ends. However, once the clock hits zero, no kicking of any kind is allowed (no FGs or punts).

82 Absolutely not

The have played 3 coin toss games and lost 2, one of which took losing the turnover battle 4-0 to lose a one score game, if that is what it takes to beat them, they will win many games.  They have looked highly mediocre, but let them have Denver's schedule so far and see how they do.

91 At the start of the game I…

At the start of the game I saw KC playing tight coverage, and strong run defense. Thought the horrid DVOA from the first two games was just two bad games. Now I’m not so sure. I believe regression will put that defense somewhere between 10.0-20.0% by the end of the year, with about 90% confidence. Frankly, that’s the kind of defense that can lose you a lot of games, and really removes them from “elite team,” conversation almost no matter how well their offense plays.

111 I said this 6 months ago...

Regression.   There's a myriad of reasons for this.  Lack of depth has hurt them.  Outside of Kelce and Hill, they have no consistent offensive threats.  The O-line is not better than last year.  It may improve, but that remains to be seen.  Mahomes is forcing throws leading to INT.  They also are fumbling.

Defensively, they weren't great last year but have only gotten worse.  They can't stop anyone.

No, they're not elite.  They won't even get back to the AFCG this year.

 

79 Kenny Clark

is a monster. Best NT in the league

87 Preston back to form

Glad they were able to rework his deal.

Of course they run outside the tackles. Too easy

88 That was a smart aggressive…

That was a smart aggressive call by the Niners at the end of the half. At first I was annoyed when they showed Garappolo leaving the field, but then I saw they were going for it. They had to do it - a FG wasn't going to keep them in the game. 

96 Uggggggghh

Again wasting a timeout. And the play still goes nowhere...

Good thing this game isnt tight.

98 Kenny...Clark

I don't know why we didn't pick it up sooner but whatever

99 AGAIN

What a waste of a timeout. And again they fail to make it worthwhile!

The bane of my existence.

102 Mason Crosby

Yes. YES!!! So much for Rodgers can't come from behind. 

Mason Crosby is the Al Del Greco of his era. Doesn't have the range of Tucker, et al, but he's incredibly accurate within his range (which at about 55 yards is much better than Del Greco). 

104 Wow, that SF defensive…

Wow, that SF defensive coverage for the final drive was ... something.  I know you're trying to defend the sidelines and against the (really) deep ball, but doing so by leaving the WR1 a bus-sized hole in the coverage 20 yards downfield - not once, but twice - maybe isn't the best way to do it.

105 Really glad the Packers…

Really glad the Packers pulled that one out. I think they really outplayed SF but left the door open by not being sharp enough in execution. The defensive line bounced back in a big way and the patchwork offensive line came through as well, good signs going forward.

Was kind of annoyed with the praise Al and Chris were giving Jimmy G, I thought he mostly sucked tonight but got bailed out by penalties and some really nice contested catches by his receivers. Maybe it was just sympathy, he's pretty obviously going to lose his job by Week 7 or so.

112 Niners.

They're going to have a hard time in division play with that offense.  They couldn't run the ball and Jimmy G doesn't inspire confidence.  He did fine on that last drive, but the Packers don't have a great defense, either.  

 

115 Wish we could have in game DVOA

A defensive TD just about only thing Eagles have done this game.  First downs 19-2 Dallas, yards absurdly lopsided.