Week 6 Open Discussion
Week 6 kicks off with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles (2-3) hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1). Sunday begins with another game from the U.K. as Miami (1-4) "visits" the Jaguars (0-5), which is a matchup of two teams who have cocked things up and gone all to bloody pot, innit? Other notable Sunday games include Green Bay (4-1) at Chicago (3-2), the L.A. Chargers (4-1) at Baltimore (4-1), Arizona (5-0) at Cleveland (3-2), and Las Vegas (3-2) at Denver (3-2). The Sunday night game sees Geno Smith and the Seahawks (2-3) visit Pittsburgh (2-3) in what feels like a loser-out game, and Buffalo (4-1) visits Tennessee (3-2) on Monday night. Use this thread to discuss them all.
Comments
186 comments, Last at 19 Oct 2021, 3:14pm
#184 by Tutenkharnage // Oct 19, 2021 - 8:46am
Tennessee played hard all night with an undermanned secondary. The Titans are worse than the Bills on paper but found some spots where they had advantages and did a good job leveraging those advantages. They played extremely close to their best football, IMO; by contrast, the Bills didn't, but Tennessee's play, especially along the defensive front line, had a lot to do with that.
A few thoughts:
- The Bills made too many physical and mental mistakes, and that's how you end up with so many penalties. The Bills had two touchdowns taken off the board because of holding penalties, which cost them at least 10 points in a game they lost by 3. (I say 10 because if they had scored a touchdown instead of a field goal to go up 6-0, they probably would have kicked an extra point rather than go for two later.)
- I'm never sure what to make of stat lines like Derrick Henry's 20 rushes for 143 yards. Henry ran for 76, 19, and 13 yards on 3 carries; those are great numbers! He also had 17 others rushes for 35 yards; those are horrible numbers! Overall, I thought the Bills did a pretty good job containing him, the one long touchdown run notwithstanding.
- A lot will be made of McDermott's decision to go for it late, but the Bills let the game get away from them on the previous job, and Josh Allen did it. Just before the ball was snapped on first down, tight end Tommy Sweeney came back into the shallow backfield to block. When he wasn't needed, he slipped upfield about five yards to Allen's right. No Titan followed Sweeney, who had a free first down (and then some) waiting for him, but Allen insisted on looking downfield for the kill shot, and he got sacked. On second down, Allen went deep again but found a double-covered Emmanuel Sanders. On third and 17, he threw a desperation pass down the right sideline that had no chance of being completed. The Bills went three-and-out in less than a minute and put their defense back on the field immediately. They didn't need to go for the kill shot there; they just needed to abuse that secondary on a four-minute drive that ended with either a game-ending touchdown or a field goal that would force Tennessee to abandon the run.
- Speaking of the decision to go for it late, it was the right one.
- By contrast, Mike Vrabel's clock management was terrible once the Bills had first-and-10 at the Tennessee 12. He was basically pinning his hopes on a miracle stop, followed by either winning the coin toss and scoring a touchdown OR losing the toss, holding Buffalo to a field goal, and then scoring a touchdown, because in a game where both teams have scored on several consecutive drives, neither team should be counting on a defensive stop.
Anyway, this is just the 2021 version of the Bills-Cardinals game from 2020. Tough loss, sure. But the Bills shrugged it off then, went on their bye, and started annihilating teams shortly thereafter, and they'll almost certainly do the same thing now.
#185 by mehllageman56 // Oct 19, 2021 - 2:41pm
Agree with almost all of this; I would have kicked the field goal, if you are the better team you go for the safe play and extend the game. That said, I too feel the Bills will shrug this off. Not only that, I would not want to be the team that faces them next off an angry bye week- looks at schedule, Jesus Christ the Dolphins are screwed.
#183 by mehllageman56 // Oct 19, 2021 - 12:02am
Having watched the sequence, the Bills should have just tried to draw them offside. Clock wasn't running, so that wouldn't effect anything, and if you have a penalty it's still a chip shot field goal.
And seriously, Cigarette Smoking Man paid for that holding call.
#172 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 18, 2021 - 11:22pm
Lol Allen made a preposterously reckless hurdle attempt to try to get the 1st - didn't fumble somehow, but came up short.
Now the Bills are lining up to go for it with 22 seconds left - why, exactly??? It's 4th down.
And he didn't get it.
Dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb.
#180 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 18, 2021 - 11:42pm
The odds of failing to convert there are much higher than odds of missing a FG at that range. I was also semi-rooting for the Titans and I was overjoyed they went for it there. If they'd converted they'd have to spend the TO so they'd be out, meaning they're realistically only looking at 1 more shot at the end zone anyway, maaayyybe 2 if you try a quick throw. Allen isn't great in the red zone and they'd bottled him up a few times already today. Like I said in my other post, that late, 4th down, you've got to take the bird in hand.
#177 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 18, 2021 - 11:31pm
I generally admire playing to win but that FG would've been closer than an extra point. Probably literally 98% likely. Sneaks aren't that reliable. And if you miss it you're done. Bird in hand, man.
Similar logic is why I was ok with Henry scoring with 3 mins left instead of going down at the 1. When it's that late and you have the points you need in hand, you have to take them. Clock games are cute and all but at some point you do have to be able to play defense for a few minutes without completely imploding.
#182 by jheidelberg // Oct 18, 2021 - 11:44pm
Then you surely won't buy my so in on offense, and so not in on TN defense, that you should decline the penalty, let the kickoff return TD stand and try to go the length of the field if you are TN. I think that if the models are off that they usually underestimate the chances that a good offense will score. I surely do not expect the models to say decline the penalty, I am just throwing it out there as an out of the box idea that someday in our lifetime, with an offense and defense like KC, we will actually see.
#170 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 18, 2021 - 11:15pm
Haaaaaaaaaa Titans had a long drive for the go-ahead TD with 3 mins left, then the Bills took the ensuing kick to the house - except it's called way back for a hold.
It was a clear hold but a completely unnecessary one; it was a big guy the returner had just blown past. Brutal.
No matter, the Titans have opted not to cover Bills receivers at any depth and Allen is marching them right on down. Already at the outskirts of FG range with 1st down coming up.
#169 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 18, 2021 - 11:04pm
*Billy Idol voice* Commenting with myself, oh oh, commenting with myself...
This is a pretty good game. Bills got a 2pt conversion on a Philly Special-type play. But now Allen has gotten fixated on making a killshot up 4 in the 4th, nearly got one picked and sailed another long one out of bounds leading to a punt.
The Titans' defense is reputedly quite bad, but they've held up reasonably well (as well as giving up 31 points can be), with some success rushing the passer and disguising coverage causing Allen to miss some reads. I don't think the Bills' offense can be shut down (especially in today's NFL), but there's a blueprint here to slow them enough to keep it competitive.
#168 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 18, 2021 - 9:40pm
Uh oh, Taylor Lewan is being carted off on a stretcher. He did give a thumbs up on his way out.
It wasn't clear on replay what happened, exactly, other than he hit his head on another player's backside and then on the ground. It didn't look unusually violent but obviously that doesn't mean much.
UPDATE: They're saying it's a concussion, although he was also in the "x-ray room"...
#167 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 18, 2021 - 9:27pm
He had more meaningful ones, but that might be the best catch of Julio Jones' career on a pure entertainment basis. Off Micah Hyde's helmet, did how he managed to snag that by the tip of the ball and get that second toe down about a millimeter in-bounds? Just ludicrous.
#161 by Raiderjoe // Oct 18, 2021 - 6:32am
Tons of drops by Carolina receivers made Darnold's stats so hideous. You can tell qhich people in thsi thread did not actually watch game.
He was not good anyway but this was oen of worst ever seen by a wide recsiver corps.
Worst thing form Darnold in game actually doesnt show up in stats. Worst part wjen hs tried to call two time outs in a row. Second time resulted in penalty
#155 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 17, 2021 - 11:08pm
I've always believed Pittsburgh would end up with a >0.500 record just because they always do, but wow, if they lose today to Geno Smith at home...
The Lions are the only total gimme left on their schedule. They'll win a few more, but 7-4 against what's left looks like a tall order. I mean, so would 6-5, but that's a fair bit less-tall, order-wise.
#153 by jheidelberg // Oct 17, 2021 - 9:51pm
Sam Darnold, last weeks last place finisher in DYAR had an awful game today, and Gino Smith is also awful so far through one half.
They were both playing reasonably well, but have overshot regression to the mean and have regressed to play like they did with the Jets.
#148 by Cythammer // Oct 17, 2021 - 8:12pm
Another prime time game for Geno. I wouldn't be surprised if the two prime time games he's played this couple weeks isn't far from how many he had played in his career previously. I doubt those mediocre Jets teams he was on played in prime time often.
#144 by jheidelberg // Oct 17, 2021 - 7:56pm
Its over, the Pats punt on 4th and 3 in OT near midfield expecting defense to stop Dallas and they do not.
McCarthy 4th and 1 FG with over 2 1/2 minutes left was presnap -13 percent GWC, according to EDJ Sports interested in seeing the Pats punt in OT and how it changed GWC
#152 by young curmudgeon // Oct 17, 2021 - 9:09pm
I guess your working in the psychological field as you phrased it once, gives you insight into determining people's ages by astute analysis of their posts on a football thread. Let me assure you: (1) I am well past 40--my username was chosen a long time ago; (2) I am, indeed, a curmudgeon.
I'm not so sure that a summer internship mostly consisting of photocopying and filing papers in a counseling office counts as 'working in the psychological field,' but whatever you say...
#127 by Cythammer // Oct 17, 2021 - 7:27pm
What's kind of weird is that neither of those scores was quite as big they might seem. NE was likely going to have to punt and then probably loses to a FG. The pick-six forced them to be more aggressive. The NE TD happened so fast that Dallas is left with tons of time to respond, which made it a much better outcome than a long, slow TD drive.
#126 by JakeD // Oct 17, 2021 - 7:26pm
This game is a really confusing roller coaster of emotions for me. I have to root against the Pats as a Bills fan, but it’s always fun to watch the Cowboys underachieve. Both teams seem determined to give the win to the other. What do I do?
#120 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 17, 2021 - 7:23pm
Re: Cowboys-Patriots: Um excuse me what.
I was thinking the only quibble with the pick-six is that they scored too quickly - but NE might have scored too quickly there lollll.
That game went from stultifying to amazing in a hurry.
#119 by jheidelberg // Oct 17, 2021 - 7:18pm
4th and 1 make it, run out clock and kick shorter field goal. But NO! Its Mike how do I screw this game up McCarthy going for 51 yard FG. Kick is missed, but if made NE gets ball with over 2:30 left and 3 timeouts to score on flip side.
And now NE throws a pick 6, I guess this was the plan all along.
#116 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 17, 2021 - 7:17pm
Hmm, I was just wondering if the Cowboys should've gone for it on 4th and 1 at the edge of FG range down 1, having all 3 timeouts left - and then they kicked the FG and missed it. Same difference other than spotting NE 7 more yards of field position (and, ya know, having no chance at getting closer/icing it).
#115 by DIVISION // Oct 17, 2021 - 7:14pm
They even gave up a Hail Mary before the half and it wasn't even a close game.
Cards defense impressed me.
Baker Mayfield is the definition of replacement level. I don't see why Cleveland would give him a 2nd contract. He's just not good.
#111 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 17, 2021 - 5:39pm
Being aggressive at the end of the half! Maybe a tad too much imo but I love not spiking it and doing a quick out there.
And they're rewarded with a TD! Fantastic job at not just kneeling into halftime!
Good job! Love to see it. THAT'S why teams shouldn't be afraid in such situations *cough* Carolina *cough*
I can't tell you how happy I am right now.
#114 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 17, 2021 - 6:24pm
(0:00 - 2nd) END QUARTER 2
3rd & 11 at NE 19
(0:08 - 2nd) M.Jones kneels to NE 17 for -2 yards
(0:08 - 2nd) Timeout #3 by DAL at 00:08.
2nd & 9 at NE 21
(0:47 - 2nd) M.Jones kneels to NE 19 for -2 yards
1st & 10 at NE 20
(1:30 - 2nd) D.Harris left guard to NE 21 for 1 yard (O.Odighizuwa)
It seems like it was pointless? Call it right as it's about to expire too? Bill looking mighty exposed though just giving up. At least run some giveup run plays if you're that scared.
Yeah that was silly on Mike.
#105 by StuffedWhiteRabbit // Oct 17, 2021 - 5:10pm
A few thoughts:
- I doubt we will see much coverage of this game here it went pretty much to form.
- LA put their backup QB in at the start of the fourth quarter. He promptly threw a pick on his first throw and later ran into a DT on a read option. LA are screwed if Stafford goes down injured at any point in the season.
- The NYG looked really poor with the ball. Unless there’s some miraculous turn around I can see them having to clear house at the end of the season.
#106 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 17, 2021 - 5:12pm
Mayfield's DVOA ranking by year: 14, 25, 17, and now 15. Aside from the Freddie Kitchens year, he's been consistently middle-of-the-pack, and unless he really shows something going forward it's reasonable to assume that's just who he is (he's already 26 too). It's like the Bears' Cutler Conundrum awhile back, only Mayfield probably isn't quite as good as Cutler was in his prime.
I'd like them to let him walk unless he'll sign for preposterously cheap (and even then...), and take their chances with Bridgewater or the like. Or, well, Aaron Rodgers...
#109 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 17, 2021 - 5:18pm
But man the emotional attachment to their first playoff appearance in forever is gonna be such a thorn in their side.
They couldn't even do it with Chubb. Gonna be so much harder with the QB (and that TD now).
#110 by StuffedWhiteRabbit // Oct 17, 2021 - 5:30pm
In my view this is one of the worst positions for an organization to find themselves. If you have a good team, and an ok QB, how do you get a better one without blowing it all up?
Say the Browns don’t extend Mayfield, can they afford to give up enough draft capital to get into a position to draft a QB? Even then they can’t guarantee that any rookie will definitely be better than Mayfield is now or over the next few years. Plus how do you hold together the core of your good team while waiting on a rookie developing?
Alternatively they have to either trade for a better QB, if they can find one at a price they are willing to afford, or spend a large portion of their salary cap on a free agent.
#112 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 17, 2021 - 5:43pm
You got it all summed up.
Ironically he has two pass TDs since my post but nonetheless...
It'll be tough decision. All they can hope for is that he just puts it altogether, consistently, and pay him at years end at this point.
#100 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 17, 2021 - 4:55pm
Well the Vikings won in the end, which is probably as it should be given how most of the game went, but it's ludicrous it even got to be that close in the end. They out-threw and out-ran the competition by massive margins and won the turnover battle 1-3, and it still went to overtime.
#99 by Cythammer // Oct 17, 2021 - 4:51pm
Vikings win. NFL overtime rules are still a mess. There shouldn't ever be a time where a game can swing because of a coin flip. The college rules have problems of their own but are still a much better alternative.
#149 by JIPanick // Oct 17, 2021 - 8:20pm
The information advantage for going second in college shootouts is bigger statistically than the sudden death advantage in NFL OT. 60% to ~52% when I last looked up the rules a couple seasons ago - doubt it's changed majorly.
There's always room to improve OT (frankly, I say let 'em tie), but college rules is a move in the wrong direction, not the right one IMO.
#151 by Cythammer // Oct 17, 2021 - 8:50pm
Hmm, I'm surprised by that. I agree about having ties, but that wouldn't solve the problem for the playoffs.
One simple improvement would be simply to allow teams to get the ball even if they give up a TD on the first drive. At least that reduces the advantage of winning the coin flip. If the game is tied after the second drive it continues, if either team is ahead, it ends.
#95 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 17, 2021 - 4:30pm
Oh my goodness Carolina tied it after all of that. Darnold's numbers on the day were awful but after getting to 4th down at their own 4, he found a few rabbits in that old hat.
The Vikings still have a chance to win it in regulation though.
UPDATE: They didn't.
#90 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 17, 2021 - 4:22pm
13-35 now, keeping that last drive moving.
I was about to post, somehow not only has that game not ended, there's some nonzero chance Carolina still wins it. Not sure if that's a moral victory for the Panthers, that they can win despite complete suckitude by the QB, or just an embarrassment for the Vikings that they haven't put it away.
(Maybe a little of Column A, and a little of Column B.)
#98 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 17, 2021 - 4:51pm
Ask any coach if they were given one untimed down to win a game, would they take it? They pretty much all would, right? But once they've got it in their head that they are playing for overtime they choose to leave that chance on the table. It's loony.
#101 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 17, 2021 - 4:58pm
Hmm maybe should've tried something!
Man playing for (NFL) OT is the worst. So conservative. Someone needs to run the numbers on end of half plays because I highly doubt even half end in the defense scoring.
#78 by KaosTheory // Oct 17, 2021 - 3:08pm
4th and 1 deep in their own territory (19 IIRC) down 24-6 in the third and the Chargers go for it. Very aggressive but unsurprising. I don’t like the call though — why are you throwing on 4th and 1? I guess that’s hindsight bias but I do feel teams too often overcomplicate it in short yardage situations instead of just sneaking it.
#84 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 17, 2021 - 3:56pm
The Rams have let it fall to 27! And the Chargers just turned it over on downs with 2 minutes left, so that 28 point deficit is likely locked in. The Rams had the ball but opted for short runs to face 4th and 1, but a penalty on the Giants keeps them on the move. It's gonna be close!
#65 by Joey-Harringto… // Oct 17, 2021 - 1:56pm
Lions have it on the Bengals 38, on 3rd and 4. Jared Goff misses a wide open Hockenson on what would have been a TD. Lions correctly go for it, Goff locks on a triple covered Hockenson, doesn’t see two other wide open receivers, bails form the pocket, and freakin throws it away…on 4th down.
This is par for the course. Just a reminder that some people thought that Stafford (who currently sits at #1 in passing DVOA) was only a slight upgrade over Goff.
#74 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 17, 2021 - 2:54pm
Everyone knew that the Rams had a much better team and no one expected the Lions and Goff to be good (well except maybe Detroit who probably regret restructuring his contract now). Rankings are more just a reflection of team strength more so than veteran QBs we've had years to evaluate.
#79 by Joey-Harringto… // Oct 17, 2021 - 3:09pm
I think you can infer, based on no significant personnel changes aside from quarterback, what the reason is for improvement in team passing DVOA from #19 to #2 is. Yes it’s only 5 vs 16 games, but I doubt the gap will be that much closer at the end of the season.
#70 by Spanosian Magn… // Oct 17, 2021 - 2:35pm
I assume it's that the network that already has Lamar vs Herbert caliber matchup would rather keep it. It's easier to predict which early-season matchups will be more interesting, at least on paper, so that's the compromise to allow flexing at all.
#63 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 17, 2021 - 12:51pm
They give up an obvious quick pass for a 1st and allow the game winning FG.
Disasterclass of not knowing they'd try a quick slant with 5 seconds left and 2 timeouts.
And this guy was (rightfully?) hailed as the pinnacle of the Billy B tree not too long ago. Life comes at ya fast
#61 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Oct 17, 2021 - 11:47am
My preseason expectation that Tagovailoa and Miami would be amongst the most improved QBs/teams this year doesn't look like its going to pan out anytime soon. Yes, they have a bunch of concentrated injuries, but still. This is a very unimpressive performance so far this morning against JAX.
#28 by Pat // Oct 15, 2021 - 9:53am
It really isn't a "nerd" thing. The only way it can't 'work' is if the opponent's behavior changes due to the score deficit (or if the 'true' 2-pt conversion percentage is significantly lower than the observed). As in, if your opponent plays differently when they're down by 6 versus down by 7 - which might be true, mind you, but that's due to human behavior and not optimal play.
It's the same thing as asking which game would you play:
1: win $10 on a single coin flip
2: win $10 on a single coin flip, and if you lose, if you win 2 coin flips in a row, I'll still give you $10
No one in their right mind would ever choose the first game. It's clearly worse than the second one.
#32 by Jetspete // Oct 15, 2021 - 10:30am
I didn’t ask for your game theory analysis. I asked for a real life example of the strategy working. The goal of this strategy appears to be to get your team ahead by 1 late in the game, and that going for 2 early gives you “more information.” The problem is you don’t get to decide when you get up by 1. We saw last week Detroit go for 2, get the lead And still lose! I’d rather get 7, get the ball then know how much time I have left to go for the win, because being tied vs behind with a minute to go DEFINITELY changes the actions of my opponent.
also it’s foolish to think being up 6 vs 7 even with five minutes left wouldn’t change an opponent’s strategy these are humans, not robots
#34 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 15, 2021 - 10:55am
It's easier to get 2 when you have 2 stabs at it. The earlier you do it the more info you have for later. Succesful first time? Cool a 94% extra point wins (with another TD of course). Fail first time? Still get another stab at it to tie it (with another TD of course). You're bound to get one of those two 2 pt conversions. Going for 1 the first time forces you to be 100% going for 2 or you straight LOSE. Much easier to go 1/2 from 2.
The problem with the Eagles is...they never got the other TD. Which happens. You're down 14 for a reason, chances are you aren't good in the first place. They played it right, just didn't work out.
Hope that helps.
#37 by Pat // Oct 15, 2021 - 11:09am
Going for 1 the first time forces you to be 100% going for 2 or you straight LOSE.
Going for 1 the first time means going for 2 the second time is no better than going to overtime (in the 50/50 simplification). You've gotten rid of the "go for 2 twice, miss the first get the second, go to overtime and win" option.
It is definitely a valid criticism of the strategy that with as conservative as NFL coaches tend to play, you might be (currently) better off lulling them into the 50% overtime shot rather than putting them in desperation mode. The strategy might be "too young."
That being said, it's kindof hilarious to think "we need to play for overtime otherwise these guys will realize if they just try to score really aggressively, they usually can."
#45 by Pat // Oct 15, 2021 - 1:04pm
You don't have to go for 2 if you go for 1 the first time. You could just kick the extra point and go to overtime. Going for 2 to win it directly the second time is very high variance (how much your win % changes with each decision). Going for 2 the first time is less so. Never going for 2 (going for the extra point both times) is the lowest variance.
#46 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 15, 2021 - 1:20pm
To try and win before OT. Youre going for 2 because youre already down and likely not the favorite and don't want to give the better team more time to beat you.
They aren't playing for the tie in the first place. The entire point of the strat.
#47 by Pat // Oct 15, 2021 - 1:29pm
Youre going for 2 because youre already down and likely not the favorite and don't want to give the better team more time to beat you.
Going for 2 first is strictly better from a win % regardless of risk/variance considerations. It's not a "you don't want to get to OT." The 'naive' guess (100% extra point, 50% go-for-2) is a 12.5% win percentage increase (62.5% go for 2 first, 50% go for 1 first, all multiplied by the possibility of getting another TD and holding your opponent). Even if you're the better team, you'd want to do it. The only reasons for not doing it are:
1) you want to lull your opponent into playing conservatively (not an insignificant consideration)
2) if you weight risk/variance really highly, in which case you should go to OT
#51 by Pat // Oct 15, 2021 - 2:01pm
I'm not arguing to argue. This statement:
Youre going for 2 because youre already down and likely not the favorite and don't want to give the better team more time to beat you.
is wrong for this strategy.
You're absolutely right this is what you should do on the last TD if you're deciding to go for 2 or go to overtime, though. If you're the worse team, go for the higher-risk option. But that's a game theory argument. Going for 2 first down 2 TDs is strictly better unless you're bluffing.
#58 by ImNewAroundThe… // Oct 15, 2021 - 5:34pm
I told you to stop because I'm done responding to you on this made up argument for the sake of arguing about minor semantics and not the actual point at hand that op asked for.
You've gotten rid of the "go for 2 twice, miss the first get the second, go to overtime and win" option.
What do you think I saying was implied? Of course this was an option. Geez. I didn't get "rid of" anything. You always do this in convos.
I'm done either way.
#35 by Pat // Oct 15, 2021 - 11:03am
I'm saying if, in the end, the strategy does not prove better than just going for the extra point and going for the tie, then it must be because the opponent's behavior changes, and the opponent plays too conservatively. It's impossible for the strategy itself to be wrong. Being up by 1 at the end of the game versus tied is objectively better. It's not actually a "more information" benefit. It's just strictly a higher winning percentage because ending the game tied is only a 50/50 win chance in overtime.
Maybe it might be better to compare it to poker? As in, maybe it is a better option to play for a tie because you're bluffing that you think your super-confident your defense can stop them and trying to scare them into being conservative.
In which case, going for the tie (and overtime) might be better until opponents start calling the bluff, at which point it again becomes better to go for 2 early.
also it’s foolish to think being up 6 vs 7 even with five minutes left wouldn’t change an opponent’s strategy these are humans, not robots
I don't get the "humans vs robots" comment. If the Lions had just gone for 1 and tied and the Vikings had just knelt and went to overtime, that's almost certainly bad strategy on their part. There's less risk trying to win the game then and there than waiting for overtime.
What I'm trying to say (and probably doing it badly) is that you might be right that right now it's a bad option because you're better off lulling the opponent into being conservative. But eventually as coaches continue to get more aggressive, that'll change.
#42 by Jetspete // Oct 15, 2021 - 12:17pm
But youre not randomly guessing that your opponent will play more conservatively, theres decades of evidence to support it. if you take a one point lead, with lets say 60 seconds left, theres a 100% chance your opponent will do everything they can to score. If it's tied, the % decreases substantially. When you go for 2 early, you give up knowing exactly how much time is left when you score that second touchdown.
if you want to compare it to poker, the better analogy is asking if you want to bluff your opponent on the flop or on the river. A bluff on the flop is usually simpler because either your opponent has something or they dont. But on the river, you have much more information as to whether or not they made their hand and are susceptible.
#44 by Pat // Oct 15, 2021 - 1:02pm
that your opponent will play more conservatively, theres decades of evidence to support it.
There's decades of evidence that the average coach is conservative. The guy across the way might not be, in which case you would be actively making it easier for him to win.
#33 by jds // Oct 15, 2021 - 10:36am
Actually, that was a perfect illustration of the situation. The only problem was they didn't stop TB, and get the ball back, and score the second TD. But they did put themselves in a position to win, if they could execute on D, and then again executed on O. Admittedly, they could not execute, because frankly they are not very good. But it is the illustration that if you are not very good, you have to take calculated risks to put yourself in a position to win over a better opponent.
Also, after last week's doinkfest, I saw a note that said single point kicks after TD are now running at 92%. If that holds for your kicker, for the year, I think the math says you should go for 2 on every TD. When single points were going at 96 or 97%, I think it is more of a wash. But for teams with the 92% kicker, you might want to examine the strategy (or perhaps do a better job of finding a better kicker).