Week 6 Open Discussion

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

Week 6 kicks off with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles (2-3) hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1). Sunday begins with another game from the U.K. as Miami (1-4) "visits" the Jaguars (0-5), which is a matchup of two teams who have cocked things up and gone all to bloody pot, innit? Other notable Sunday games include Green Bay (4-1) at Chicago (3-2), the L.A. Chargers (4-1) at Baltimore (4-1), Arizona (5-0) at Cleveland (3-2), and Las Vegas (3-2) at Denver (3-2). The Sunday night game sees Geno Smith and the Seahawks (2-3) visit Pittsburgh (2-3) in what feels like a loser-out game, and Buffalo (4-1) visits Tennessee (3-2) on Monday night. Use this thread to discuss them all.

Comments

186 comments, Last at 19 Oct 2021, 3:14pm

145 Looked at their schedule.

The only difficult teams they have left are the Chiefs and Cardinals.

Everyone else are mediocre or NFC East teams.

Prove me wrong, there.

Weak schedule.

The Cards have the Packers in two weeks...

144 Its over, the Pats punt on…

Its over, the Pats punt on 4th and 3 in OT near midfield expecting defense to stop Dallas and they do not.

McCarthy 4th  and 1 FG with over 2 1/2 minutes left was presnap -13 percent GWC, according to EDJ Sports interested in seeing the Pats punt in OT and how it changed GWC

148 Another prime time game for…

Another prime time game for Geno. I wouldn't be surprised if the two prime time games he's played this couple weeks isn't far from how many he had played in his career previously. I doubt those mediocre Jets teams he was on played in prime time often.

153 Regression to the Jets

Sam Darnold, last weeks last place finisher in DYAR had an awful game today, and Gino Smith is also awful so far through one half.

They were both playing reasonably well, but have overshot regression to the mean and have regressed to play like they did with the Jets.

 

155 I've always believed…

I've always believed Pittsburgh would end up with a >0.500 record just because they always do, but wow, if they lose today to Geno Smith at home...

The Lions are the only total gimme left on their schedule. They'll win a few more, but 7-4 against what's left looks like a tall order. I mean, so would 6-5, but that's a fair bit less-tall, order-wise.

158 And as soon as I say that:

SEA waffles before using one and the Steelers use one with the clocked stopped because...they need to allow a catch to DK with that great defensive play call? 

Looks like they got the spike in time imo. 

160 A guy in street clothes for…

A guy in street clothes for the coin toss is a weird sight.

 

I thought the Seahawks got the spike off with a second left, so all the drama around the review seemed much ado about nothing.

161 Tons of drops by Carolina…

Tons of drops by Carolina receivers made Darnold's stats so hideous. You can tell  qhich people in thsi thread did not actually watch game.

He was not good anyway but this was oen of worst ever seen by a wide recsiver corps. 

Worst thing form Darnold in game actually doesnt show up in stats. Worst part wjen hs tried to call two time outs in a row. Second time resulted in penalty

166 Titans try to reenact the…

Titans try to reenact the Music City Miracle. This one's more obviously a forward pass, sadly.

167 He had more meaningful ones,…

He had more meaningful ones, but that might be the best catch of Julio Jones' career on a pure entertainment basis. Off Micah Hyde's helmet, did how he managed to snag that by the tip of the ball and get that second toe down about a millimeter in-bounds? Just ludicrous.

168 Uh oh, Taylor Lewan is being…

Uh oh, Taylor Lewan is being carted off on a stretcher. He did give a thumbs up on his way out.

It wasn't clear on replay what happened, exactly, other than he hit his head on another player's backside and then on the ground. It didn't look unusually violent but obviously that doesn't mean much.

UPDATE: They're saying it's a concussion, although he was also in the "x-ray room"...

169 *Billy Idol voice*…

*Billy Idol voice* Commenting with myself, oh oh, commenting with myself...

This is a pretty good game. Bills got a 2pt conversion on a Philly Special-type play. But now Allen has gotten fixated on making a killshot up 4 in the 4th, nearly got one picked and sailed another long one out of bounds leading to a punt.

The Titans' defense is reputedly quite bad, but they've held up reasonably well (as well as giving up 31 points can be), with some success rushing the passer and disguising coverage causing Allen to miss some reads. I don't think the Bills' offense can be shut down (especially in today's NFL), but there's a blueprint here to slow them enough to keep it competitive.

170 Haaaaaaaaaa Titans had a…

Haaaaaaaaaa Titans had a long drive for the go-ahead TD with 3 mins left, then the Bills took the ensuing kick to the house - except it's called way back for a hold.

It was a clear hold but a completely unnecessary one; it was a big guy the returner had just blown past. Brutal.

No matter, the Titans have opted not to cover Bills receivers at any depth and Allen is marching them right on down. Already at the outskirts of FG range with 1st down coming up.

171 Titans are inexplicably…

Titans are inexplicably letting the clock run with all 3 timeouts. Even if you're banking on holding them to the FG, why not preserve time for a drive with the game tied?

172 Lol Allen made a…

Lol Allen made a preposterously reckless hurdle attempt to try to get the 1st - didn't fumble somehow, but came up short.

Now the Bills are lining up to go for it with 22 seconds left - why, exactly??? It's 4th down.

And he didn't get it.

Dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb.

180 The odds of failing to…

The odds of failing to convert there are much higher than odds of missing a FG at that range. I was also semi-rooting for the Titans and I was overjoyed they went for it there. If they'd converted they'd have to spend the TO so they'd be out, meaning they're realistically only looking at 1 more shot at the end zone anyway, maaayyybe 2 if you try a quick throw. Allen isn't great in the red zone and they'd bottled him up a few times already today. Like I said in my other post, that late, 4th down, you've got to take the bird in hand.

177 I generally admire playing…

In reply to by Spanosian Magn…

I generally admire playing to win but that FG would've been closer than an extra point. Probably literally 98% likely. Sneaks aren't that reliable. And if you miss it you're done. Bird in hand, man.

Similar logic is why I was ok with Henry scoring with 3 mins left instead of going down at the 1. When it's that late and you have the points you need in hand, you have to take them. Clock games are cute and all but at some point you do have to be able to play defense for a few minutes without completely imploding.

182 Then you surely won't buy my…

Then you surely won't buy my so in on offense, and so not in on TN defense, that you should decline the penalty, let the kickoff return TD stand and try to go the length of the field if you are TN.  I think that if the models are off that they usually underestimate the chances that a good offense will score.  I surely do not expect the models to say decline the penalty, I am just throwing it out there as an out of the box idea that someday in our lifetime, with an offense and defense like KC, we will actually see.

174 Incredible stop

Allen hurdles just short on 3 rd down and fails on 4 th down QB sneak

175 Wow! Titans win as Bills try…

Wow! Titans win as Bills try for the win instead of the tying FG! Analytics will be talking about this for some time. And McDermott will get roasted.

179 So Cancer man is still alive…

So Cancer man is still alive.  Mulder didn't kill him.  He is as inevitable as Thanos and as indestructible as Godzilla.  Not sure what can stop him or his evil plans for the Buffalo Bills.

183 Having watched the sequence,…

Having watched the sequence, the Bills should have just tried to draw them offside.  Clock wasn't running, so that wouldn't effect anything, and if you have a penalty it's still a chip shot field goal.

 

And seriously, Cigarette Smoking Man paid for that holding call.

184 Bills-Titans

Tennessee played hard all night with an undermanned secondary. The Titans are worse than the Bills on paper but found some spots where they had advantages and did a good job leveraging those advantages. They played extremely close to their best football, IMO; by contrast, the Bills didn't, but Tennessee's play, especially along the defensive front line, had a lot to do with that.

A few thoughts:

  1. The Bills made too many physical and mental mistakes, and that's how you end up with so many penalties. The Bills had two touchdowns taken off the board because of holding penalties, which cost them at least 10 points in a game they lost by 3. (I say 10 because if they had scored a touchdown instead of a field goal to go up 6-0, they probably would have kicked an extra point rather than go for two later.)
  2. I'm never sure what to make of stat lines like Derrick Henry's 20 rushes for 143 yards. Henry ran for 76, 19, and 13 yards on 3 carries; those are great numbers! He also had 17 others rushes for 35 yards; those are horrible numbers! Overall, I thought the Bills did a pretty good job containing him, the one long touchdown run notwithstanding.
  3. A lot will be made of McDermott's decision to go for it late, but the Bills let the game get away from them on the previous job, and Josh Allen did it. Just before the ball was snapped on first down, tight end Tommy Sweeney came back into the shallow backfield to block. When he wasn't needed, he slipped upfield about five yards to Allen's right. No Titan followed Sweeney, who had a free first down (and then some) waiting for him, but Allen insisted on looking downfield for the kill shot, and he got sacked. On second down, Allen went deep again but found a double-covered Emmanuel Sanders. On third and 17, he threw a desperation pass down the right sideline that had no chance of being completed. The Bills went three-and-out in less than a minute and put their defense back on the field immediately. They didn't need to go for the kill shot there; they just needed to abuse that secondary on a four-minute drive that ended with either a game-ending touchdown or a field goal that would force Tennessee to abandon the run.
  4. Speaking of the decision to go for it late, it was the right one.
  5. By contrast, Mike Vrabel's clock management was terrible once the Bills had first-and-10 at the Tennessee 12. He was basically pinning his hopes on a miracle stop, followed by either winning the coin toss and scoring a touchdown OR losing the toss, holding Buffalo to a field goal, and then scoring a touchdown, because in a game where both teams have scored on several consecutive drives, neither team should be counting on a defensive stop.

Anyway, this is just the 2021 version of the Bills-Cardinals game from 2020. Tough loss, sure. But the Bills shrugged it off then, went on their bye, and started annihilating teams shortly thereafter, and they'll almost certainly do the same thing now.

185 Agree with almost all of…

In reply to by Tutenkharnage

Agree with almost all of this; I would have kicked the field goal, if you are the better team you go for the safe play and extend the game.  That said, I too feel the Bills will shrug this off.  Not only that, I would not want to be the team that faces them next off an angry bye week- looks at schedule, Jesus Christ the Dolphins are screwed.

186 LOL! The Dolphins are screwed

They lost 35-0 to what you are implying was a less motivated Bills team.  If you are right, maybe we see 49-0 next time?