Week 9 Open Discussion

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 9 - Thursday Night Football sees Michael Pittman and the Colts (3-5) host the Jets (2-5).

Big Sunday games include Denver (4-4) at Dallas (6-1), New England (4-4) at Carolina (4-4), Cleveland (4-4) at Cincinnati (5-3), and Green Bay (7-1) at Kansas City (4-4). The Sunday night game pits Tennessee (6-2) at the L.A. Rams (7-1), while Chicago (3-5) visits Pittsburgh (4-3) on Monday night. Use this thread to discuss them all. 

Comments

201 comments, Last at 10 Nov 2021, 9:45am

17 :0

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

MEGA ELITE. BETTER THAN HENRY DONT @ ME

39 Real talk?

I'm still taking Taylor. More agile. 4.39 at 226> 4.54 at 247. Better pass catcher. 6.65 ANY/RA for Taylor this year. 5.19 for Henry (still good though).

Also there'll be less pressure to use him a ton. Won't dictate my offense into lower value plays...as often. 

And for icing, vs the Jets this year:

Henry 35 touches 173 yards 1 TD

Taylor 20 touches 200 yards 2 TD

And I think, THINK, Tannehill is better than Wentz. Call me crazy.

9 Maybe Flacco is learning from Josh Johnson

I know that a 6th round pick is not much to give up, but this is silly.  The Jets knew Flacco could not report until Friday so he would be out last week.  This was his one game if Wilson will be back.  Flacco not even active.

Josh Johnson is showing Flacco that you can hang around for a decade, do nothing, and get paid very well.  

 

11 Whatever

It's just a draft pick. When given the chance to trade for 36 year old QB that hasn't been good in 7 years...you just gotta do it and light the $2 bill on fire

Hard to tell the 3rd stringers from each other in practice without him. 

5 Darius Leonard with yet…

Darius Leonard with yet another “Peanut Punch” for a forced fumble.  He’s gotten really good at that this year. 

8 Of course, the Mike White…

Of course, the Mike White injury was terrible luck too... As much for him as the team. He had the great game on Sunday after years of hanging around on the fringes of the NFL, gets off to another good start here... And now if he can't come back he might very well never get a chance to play again.

15 Cowards!

Kneeling into half...

Hopefully Jonathan Taylor pours it on em

18 Maybe the Jets should fire…

Maybe the Jets should fire Saleh and make their OC the coach. Saleh is a defensive guy and the defense is absurdly terrible. The offense looks okay.

22 They spent a lot of the…

They spent a lot of the money (Corey Davis) and draft picks on offense and what little they spent on defense ended up on injured reserve.  The FO preview expected the defense to be as bad as this and the New England game.  OK, maybe not this bad but really bad.  Seriously, their best corner is a 6th round pick from last year.  The OC couldn't coach until Wilson got hurt.  Seriously, his scripted plays stunk every game until they faced the Bengals.  There was an article every week on Gang Green Nation about it, you can check it out if you care.  Now the Lesser LaFleur is good, either because Wilson is hurt and White and Johnson are better, or because he should be calling plays from upstairs.  Maybe having patience for a rookie head coach, rookie OC and a rookie quarterback is a better idea than fire everyone, which isn't Woody Johnson's way.

Having preached patience, if Johnson and White can be this solid, Wilson better improve when he comes back in.

41 Saleh is fine

R. Saleh is fine. Seems will be good head coahc. Reminds of Chuck Noll's first year as head coach or Jimmy Johnson's. No way was any guy going to make 2021 Jets play liek 1976 Raiders, 1985 Bears, 1984 Stars or 1991 Redskins. Tema willl have some good games btu some bad ones too. Very young team b y average age. Defensive line terrible Thursday night. Coordinator bad g ame too. Not many line games. Very vanilla attack. Got man handled and could not get off blocks.  Gap cpntrol terrible.. linebackers had zero help. Juge gaping holes opened by Clots lineman. Loooked like T. Frazier Nebraska teams playing vs Iowa State and other turds of the Big 8. 

Z. Wilson problem was nto making boring plays. He was not making passses M. White and J. Johnson naking.If cannot make boring plays then cannot make exciting plays because if cannot make boring plays, then willl be pn sideline holding tablet and wearing baseball cap.. 

 

Hopefully, for Wilson and Jets,, he was paying close attention these past two games

19 Jets offense DVOA is worse than defense

This game is the equalizer, the Jets are so inept that after this game you will not be able to tell if the offense is worse or if the defense is worse.

The Jets do however lead the league in QB starting options for next week.

20 Jets look like Lions

Go way behind, furious 4th quarter comeback, just needing TD two pt conversion onside kick recovery, TD to force OT, and they get picked and the miracle comeback is averted.

23 That Ty Johnson TD was…

That Ty Johnson TD was pretty rad.

This is a weird game to 'interpret'. I bet DVOA loves the Jets offense after this - they put up 30 on a top-5 defense, technically - but it's another one with a QB the defense not only didn't prepare for, but doesn't even have much tape for if they coaches/analysts wanted to do some on-the-fly research. And a lot of that scoring was in "garbage time", but they were in position to come within one score with a minute left for the onside+miracle, so it wasn't actually that "garbage," really.

Colts finally get the pick on their third shot at it on the same drive. On arguably the one least the QB's fault, though that first one really should have been caught, so I guess it evened out in the end.

24 Zach Wilson had just four…

Zach Wilson had just four passing TDs and 1168 passing yards in 5 full games and less than a half of a sixth game. In the two and a half games since Josh Johnson and Mike White have combined for eight TDs and more than a 1000 yards passing.

25 Shaking my head

What lead is possibly big enough for the Colts to NOT blow late?  I guess about 30 pts is the answer.

The announcers keep talking about what a great job Matt Eberflus is doing as the DC and the chatter about his interviewing for HC jobs, but all I see if some super talented guys holding together a D that is incredibly passive in the zone vs passing.  "Keep everything in front of you" has morphed into "allow a bunch of 10-15 receptions to 3rd stringers."  They surely have the worst 4th Quarter D in the league, by a country mile.  

I'd love to say losing S Julian Blackmon to the IR last week was the fatal blow, but they were doing this all season.  D finally getting pressure on the QB, but Josh Johnson is an absolute robot in terms of withstanding pressure/hits and getting a decent pass off.  And the secondary can't do its job.

26 The secondary was pretty…

The secondary was pretty thin to start the year. With both starting safeties out and the corners playing through injuries, it’s pretty terrible at the moment. The Colts also haven’t had a real pass rushing threat for a while either. They have a hard time getting pressure with just the front four. However they seem terrified of playing man coverage at this point, so that limits the blitzing they can do. 

So, at this point, opposing QBs just need to sit back and wait for the zones to break down and find guys wide open for 10-15 yard gains. 

28 Again?!?!?

So I wake up and have to write the same comment as five days ago. Joe douglass is paid to be a gm. It is now clear he had not one but two backup quarterbacks in the building capable of running the offense….AND STILL GAVE UP CAPITAL FOR JOE FLACCO!!! How is this idiot not immediately fired? It’s indefensible 

29 Just curious

In reply to by Jetspete

Why did you have to write the same comment? What would have changed had you chosen not to write it again?

30 It's funny tho

In reply to by Jetspete

But being serious, unless you're acquiring a guy to be the starter, the best backup is simply the one already in the buidling. He may suck but half the starters suck, chances are against you having someone good, so may as well go cheap and pray they somehow pop off like Mike White.

And the Josh Johnsons of the world can provide the vet exp if the Whites aren't doing it. You dont need former big names for that. 

That's my team building philosophy and I've yet to see a reason to adjust such a plan. 

31 How is this idiot not…

In reply to by Jetspete

How is this idiot not immediately fired? It’s indefensible 

Just put yourself in Woody Johnson's shoes for a second. You really mean to tell me you would go into Joe Douglas's office and say "My God, Joe, how dare you waste a 6th round draft pick! We can't possibly afford that! You're fired!"

Do... do you want a list of what mistakes other GMs have done around the league this year? Bill Belichick handed Cam Newton $3.6M for training camp. Ryan Pace has $22M invested in two quarterbacks sitting on his bench. The Carolina Panthers GM traded for Sam Darnold and then riding a confidence boost (fueled by... substances, I guess) traded for a 31-year old cornerback in the last year of his contract coming off an injury, being owed $7M (*).

Douglas trading for Flacco doesn't even register on the "stupid GM meter" for me.

*: by the way, note what Gilmore was traded for? A 6th round pick. Why? Because he would have returned a 6th round compensatory value or better after this season. Flacco's a similar situation. The pick itself is pointless. I only think the Gilmore trade was stupid because $7M is a lot to pay.

37 The Gilmore trade would have…

The Gilmore trade would have been fine if CAR was a real contender this year.  Despite (D)VOA ranking them number 1 at the time the trade was negotiated, they clearly weren't a real contender (nor did anyone at FO consider them such, either, it's just what DVOA happened to be saying after a small sample size calculation without the D-adjustment in the figures yet).

So any malfeasance on the part of the CAR GM seems basically to have been him believing in their W-L record of the time.

38  So any malfeasance on the…

So any malfeasance on the part of the CAR GM seems basically to have been him believing in their W-L record of the time.

Well, yeah, but isn't it the same thing with Douglas and the Jets? Trading for Flacco would've made perfect sense if they were in a better position to contend. I'm not sure that believing you might have a chance at 1-4 is much more insane than Carolina believing they might have a chance with Sam Darnold at QB.

54 Funny

The Gilmore trade was fine. Look at that, another pick. A game winning one and another vs his former team. All for a 6th.

The problem with the Flacco (and Minshew) trade(s) is they simply dont play. And you don't want to see them play. Because that means their starter is out (guy you have more invested in)! Which is generally never good!

I do agree they didn't correctly evaluate their W-L but to get him on the field for a 6th is fine. That isn't happening for the the Jets (and Eagles) and they were completely foreseeable and avoidable. If Gilmore is worth it they can tag him. Not a chance that happens to Flacco.

Simply, the Flacco trade is much worse than the Gilmore one. The Flacco one has a chance to be given up for a higher pick too! 31 year old Gilmore >>>>>>>>>>>>>36 year old Flacco.

The excuses (not from you tho) to justifying the Jets lighting a 2/5 dollar bill on fire for QB4 is nonsense. Douglas just needs to do better. 

163 They gave up maybe ~2% of…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

They gave up maybe ~2% of their draft value for next year and 3% of next year's cap for a total lost season. They could get the draft pick back (ditto with Flacco), but the cash is gone.

You can't just pay attention to draft pick value and not cap resources.

The Flacco trade wasn't good (they should've gotten back a 7th, in my opinion) but the Panthers trading for Gilmore was just weirder.

164 Assuming comp picks

is never a good idea. Especially for a bad team that spends money on FAs. Especially especially when Flacco didn't garner one this past offseason. 

I'm not paying attention to cap resources? Flacco is cheaper than some street free agent...like Josh Johnson?

Gilmore is a good player that has played and will continue. Flacco has been in 7 years and there's no sign of him ever playing! Not much weirder about giving up less (equal at best) while already getting a LOT more in return. Carolina was 3-1. The Jets were 1-5 and gave up potentially more. Gilmore trade was fine. The Flacco one was much worse.

200   Especially especially when…

 

Especially especially when Flacco didn't garner one this past offseason. 

Yes, he did (a 7th). The Jets didn't get it because they signed too many players. But unrealized (offset) compensatory picks are still compensatory picks.

Teams know exactly how compensatory picks are awarded, and it's absolutely part of the calculus when low-end starters are shuffled. There have been bunches of dumb tricks by teams to manipulate the compensatory formulas.

I'm not paying attention to cap resources? Flacco is cheaper than some street free agent...like Josh Johnson?

He's more expensive than a random street free agent, he's exactly the same as Johnson if he got promoted. Realistically Flacco's probably costing them ~500-750K or so. Bad? Yes. But way more of a "shrug" than $6+M.

Gilmore is a good player that has played and will continue.

Gilmore is in his final contract year. His contributions to the Panthers are this year, and this year alone. The Panthers have Sam Darnold. They're not going anywhere. Spending resources to get Gilmore was totally equivalent to chucking them down the drain.

You always seem to think I'm somehow defending the Flacco trade as "good" or something. It wasn't. It was dumb, it should've been much more trivial (a 6/7 flip, for instance, or conditional 7th). But the Gilmore trade was worse.

If you want to go totally down the rabbit hole, the Gilmore trade's even worse because he might help the Panthers win a game or two.

201 So it didnt

That's exactly the point. He got literally got the lowest round and they still didn't get it because a team with Flacco is bad and spends money to try to fix it. 

They think they're not going spend on this bad team AND get something similar to what they got? Lol good luck, I'm sure that's their plan.

Lol you want to think the Gilmore trade is worse despite giving up less and getting more and being on a better team. Repeating myself but you're not convincing anyone. Flacco literally won't play and a bad team (worse than DARNOLD and the Panthers needs the 6th (or 5th) more than a middling team that thought they had something at the time).

And if Gilmore helps win a game or two...he's good! They can get a comp or tag him or re sign him! If Flacco plays the Jets are on QB4 and they've never looked good this season! The Gilmore trade just isn't worse! No ones gonna agree with you on that.

There's no reason to down play a poor team lighting a $2/5 bill on fire by comparing it to a middle class team lighting a $2 bill on fireworks. 

45 “Bill Belichick handed Cam…

“Bill Belichick handed Cam Newton $3.6M for training camp.”

You’re sort of putting a negative emphasis on this that is unwarranted. It’s very reasonable to keep a veteran QB around for a training camp competition versus a rookie QB. 3.6 million is a very reasonable cost.

Unlike trading a 6th for Flacco, what Belichick did made sense.

152 Belichick's Newton decision…

Belichick's Newton decision and Douglas's Flacco trade have exactly the same on-field results. None.

You're just declaring one reasonable and the other not. I could easily do the reverse.

The Flacco trade would've looked brilliant if he had come and played them into a playoff spot or something. Just like Belichick's Newton decision wouldve looked smart if he had worked out. I don't actually think the two likelihoods were different.

32 Wentzmania

17 TDs passing, 3 INTs, looking pretty good so far.

34 Admittedly his good moments…

In reply to by horn

Admittedly his good moments have looked a lot better than I expected. But his bad moments are still absolutely atrocious. And for having seemingly a big arm I don't know why all his deep balls seem to come up short, even if they've had success on PI on those it doesn't really feel sustainable. I'm honestly not sure what to think, very confusing player to evaluate. He's definitely been way better than last year, but as a Colts fan do I trust him in big moments? Absolutely not.

44 There were 3 dropped…

In reply to by horn

There were 3 dropped interceptions in the SF game. 
He seems to be one of those physically talented but not so smart QBs to me. 

43 49ers / Cardinals

If Murray is indeed out for the game, and 49ers pull out a win, that division gets interesting again....with Wilson returning soon also.

47 Most important games

CLE/CIN. The loser is pretty much done. Speaking of which, why does DVOA like CLE so much this year?

MIN/BAL. If BAL can't win this, the division is wide open all of a sudden. MIN gets right back into the wild-card race with a win.

LAC/PHI. LAC is in big, big trouble if they lose, and PHI inches into the wild-card race.

GB/KC. If KC can't beat Love, they are done.

ARI/SF. See above, but replace "Love" with "McCoy" and "KC" with "SF".

TEN/LAR. TEN if it wins will probably be the 1 seed. LAR if it wins and ARI loses will probably be the 1 seed.

49 So far the Denver defense…

So far the Denver defense looks pretty darn stout, not missing Miller at all. In two drives the only really successful play they allowed to Dallas was a long catch-and-run to Cooper after the DB stumbled. They've also gotten off the field on two 4th and short plays.

Denver's offense, on the other hand, had 3 plays lose yards and another incomplete on their first four plays. Although they've just ripped off a couple of long runs and a long pass (thanks to a nice catch by Jeudy - rookie year yips seem to be in the past, in the few games he's played this year anyway).

Dallas really seems to be having trouble with runs right up the middle. Seems to be uncharacteristic per FO line stats - we'll see if they're able to adjust.

50 Bridgewater to Patrick for a…

Bridgewater to Patrick for a 44 yard TD bomb and it's 13-0 Denver (missed the extra point on their first TD). I've always thought Bridgewater's dink-and-dunk-iness is overstated; dude can sling it when he's actually got someone open downfield.

Which happened this time due to OPI, honestly, but I guess it was small/subtle enough that Patrick got away with it.

51 DeSaun Watson offers

https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1457414924762681346?s=20

This (multiple teams offered 3 1st round picks for Watson) just can't be true, can it?

 

52 It says sthey were…

It says they were conditional offers based on Watson's status being clarified by the deadline, which makes sense to me. 

55 Hmmmmm

.... clarified how though? I mean even if (unlikely) the civil cases could be settled at a stroke, no way to get rid of the criminal proceedings. Seems like (at best) wishful thinking/theoretical negotiation about what he might be worth rap-free. The whole thing always seemed like a fake, hyped up story at this stage.

61 I'm not sure what you mean…

In reply to by LondonMonarch

I'm not sure what you mean by "theoretical negotiation," but that's not far off as I read it. Teams are going to do the legwork to see what the Texans will accept, but Watson's situation needs to settle and he needs to potentially expand the number of teams he'd take a trade to. Neither of those things happened before the deadline so the deal didn't occur. When/if those things do resolve, they know where they stand. 

144 The criminal proceedings are…

In reply to by LondonMonarch

The criminal proceedings are going to go nowhere - with all the myriad leaks out of Houston, all the damning things about Watson, so far none of it has included proof to substantiate the plaintiff's claims.  The sheer number of accusers is probably enough to doom Watson in civil court, but won't suffice for the much higher standards in criminal court.

53 Weird penalty decline there

Buffalo turns down an offensive hold that would have created a 3rd and 15, instead let's Jax kick a 55 yard field goal. Are we really scared of Jax's offense? 

57 What the heck??  DAL just…

What the heck??  DAL just blocked a DEN punt which was then recovered by DEN and they got to keep the ball because it was touched by a DAL player beyond the line of scrimmage before being recovered by DEN.

Don't think I've ever seen that before.

59 A lot of surprising…

A lot of surprising scorelines right now. Vikings, Falcons, and Broncos all up by at least 14 over teams with much better records.

 

The Saints should be trying to get Philip Rivers to come out of retirement. He's by far the best QB option they could get at this point. Siemian isn't going to cut it.

62 Darnold, Darnold, Darnold …

Darnold, Darnold, Darnold ... ugh, what an ugly INT to turn a possible game-tying drive into a pick six the other way.

Not a mental error, he threw it to right guy, just floated it too high while rolling away from coverage, right into the arms of the waiting DB. 

63 If the Bills somehow lose to…

If the Bills somehow lose to the Jags then the Patriots suddenly look like potential AFC East winners. They'd be just a half game back. NE's rebuild didn't take long.

65 This Bills-Jags game has a…

This Bills-Jags game has a lot of 2nd week of the preseason energy. Both teams struggling to execute fairly simple things on offense, penalties everywhere, blown kicks, terrible game management, etc. 

67 Raiders...

kick a FG down 4 w/<10m left on 4th and 3 in the RZ?

Better check the 4th down bot...and yep bad decision of course. Yikes. Deserved to miss it. 

69 Lotta bad QB play today

I've seen enough bad throws and decisions by: burrow, Lamar, Allen, Dak for everyone to shut up about Carson Wentz for a month.

79 Lol

Literally no one here is hating. Yall are just weirdly hyping. Like...using just raw ints...on this website? 

82 Lol. You called someone who…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Lol. You called someone who posted a mild defense a shill or a Wentz burner account. That's hating. As for me using interceptions... That's more stats than you have used. Your first post just insulted the guy you disagreed with, with no appeal to stats or any other form of argument. As for DVOA, in any case, says Wentz has been mediocre, not the incredibly bad QB making terrible decisions constantly that some claim. His DVOA will be going up after the game on Thursday as well.

83 Have you seen his other posts?

Do you see his only posts here?

Lol all he did was hate on Hurts and it's become very clearly it's all in defense of Wentz. It's literally the only topic he posts on. 

He was objectively terrible last year and horn is trying his hardest to make the trade look bad for some reason (that reason is he likes Wentz but hates Hurts because...weird).

I never personally said he was doing terrible but to try and dunk on objectively better QBs is laughable. 

157 Wentz "debates"

Wentz is getting a lot of ridicule still.  I guess he earned it last year and this is sort of overflow, so if he keeps up the good play, it should more or less go away by next year (but always linger in the back of one's mind, because some things you can't un-see). I was not high on him when all the chatter about Indy possibly signing him started last year, but he has worked well and as the OL and run game round into form, can only assume he'll keep improving.

On the flipside:  Mahomes has an actual (not theoretical 11/16th of one) MVP and Superbowl win, so he gets lot of slack for having a truly crappy year.  Seems unfair, but I think he's earned the slack.  And I saw a few tweets today about a QB "pulling a Wentz" i.e. a boneheaded throw he should not have made that hurt his team.  Wentz has had exactly three of them this year--as an AFC guy on the west coast, I never watch the NFCE unless I am forced to at gunpoint, so I really have no Wentz baggage for better or worse, but making him synonymous with a killer mistake seems excessive.  Stafford basically pulled the same thing with a pick-six plus a pick inside his own 5 vs the Titans... let's see how cruelly he gets roasted.  (My God, what is it about Tennessee?!?!).  He's got the nice rebirth narrative and has been on an MVP trajectory so far this year, so I suspect it'll be less than the figurative knee in the gonads Wentz repeatedly gets.  And Wentz wears his freakin' mask on the sidelines! (I'm looking at you, Typhoid Aaron.)

I do concur that the 49ers dropped a bunch of potential INTs, and the underthrows are not really amusing any more, so the jury is still out as far as I am concerned.  But he's not bad at all and has, I think, outperformed expectations.  Once he has set a baseline for expectations in Indy, next year will be first year we can really judge him fairly, and harshly, if deserved.  

165 Not much hate here

In reply to by Bobman

It's year 6 for Went. I think we know what he is. He's 20th in DYAR and DVOA. That sounds about right. 

horns stanning is just weird and not a good look when that's all he posts. Seriously, he only posts a couple times a week and it's to defend Wentz. I don't think he watches football outside that narrative of Wentz was wronged.

70 Complete and absolute…

Complete and absolute domination by Denver. Yet it's "only" a 19 point lead in the 4th, thanks to some conservative playcalling and a missed FG. Denver is playing like they know they're the inferior team and are trying to "shorten" the game - lots of runs on offense, essentially ran out the half rather than attempting a real drive, defense allowing short stuff - but it's translated into being by far the superior team so far. They're mostly boxing up the Dallas running game and trusting their DBs to hold up in coverage and it's worked incredibly well - and maybe Cooper and Lamb aren't quite Moss and Carter, but they're pretty dang good, and Denver has just eaten them alive: 2 catches on 9 targets between them.

But the kicker is Denver is averaging 6.1 yards per play. Some big runs and some big passes, helped by some broken tackles to be fair, but it's not just dink and dunk, 3 yards and a cloud of dust stuff. Dallas hasn't been able to consistently cover Patrick or Jeudy, while also allowing Gordon and Williams to average 5.6 on the ground. yeesh.

And Bridgewater punches it in on a QB sneak (just barely) to make it 27-0 with 11 minutes left (nice play by Bridgewater to pull off the 2pt conversion against good coverage), and almost certainly seal the win.

71 The Jags were 14.5 point…

The Jags were 14.5 point underdogs. This will be the biggest upset in a few years if they pull it off.

74 Looks like the Ravens might…

Looks like the Ravens might recover to win, but we are learning a lot about how good the Cowboys and Bengals actually are. What a nightmare couple of weeks for Cincinnati. For Dallas, winning on the road over a decent team with a backup QB, followed by this... A strange sequence.

76 Jags recover a Josh Allen…

Jags recover a Josh Allen fumble in their own territory. The chance of a massive upset is becoming very real.

78 What a day for upsets. Five…

What a day for upsets. Five underdogs have won and the Vikings might still make it six. Only the Pats, Fins, and maybe Ravens survive.

 

What makes it crazier is how some of these upsets occurred. The Jags won as huge underdogs while the Broncos and Browns annihilated the favorites. Three shocking games.

80 So Stokes was injured in…

So Stokes was injured in pregame. That sucks and explains why I couldn't find him on the field to see if they were going to have him follow Hill or not.

81 Thrilling Baltimore-Minnesota game

As a Ravens fan it was hard to watch at points but overall a thrilling win. Really rough loss for Minnesota. Curious what others who watched thought about Lamar.

167 I have seen every play of every Ravens game

Having been at every home game, then watching it during the week on TV (not yet for this week), and having seen every road game, here are my thoughts on Lamar:

1.  He would be a negative 20% to DAVE on FO playoff odds report, if he misses a game.  I feel that this is too low. This is equivalent to Rodgers and above Murray 15%.  I AM NOT SAYING HE IS BETTER THAN RODGERS!!!  Maybe Rodgers -20% DAVE is also too low.

2.  Without Lamar, the Ravens are a below average team, with a below average offense, below average defense and great special teams.

3.  There are legitimate criticisms of Lamar

a.  He is below average throwing outside the numbers

b.  He has too many turnovers, due to some poor decisions and fumbles

c.  He throws too many inaccurate passes

d.  He is not at an elite level of passing such as Mahomes, Rodgers, and Wilson.

However, he is the Ravens. 

With an offensive line that can not pass block,

RB's that are a laughing stock.

A bad defense, which is quite a shock,

There is little else to root for Ravens Flock.

What is the team to do??  Run Lamar, pass Lamar, repeat, repeat, repeat.  

Who would the Ravens rather have at QB, could anyone avoid the constant pressure and get a few yards out of the play by scrambling?  I am not saying that Lamar is the best QB in the league, however, with the endless pressure, would anyone do better on this team?

Look at yesterday's stats,  Jackson 21 carries 120 yards, long of 12, incredibly efficient.  Cook 17 carries 110 yards long of 66.  Without the details it looks like Lamar and Cook were similar, but far from it.

If an RB had Lamar's game we would say he had a great game.  The team is 6-2 with an offensive DVOA of 9.1 before yesterday's game.  With a mediocre replacement such as Teddy Bridgewater where would the Ravens be?  

DYAR and DVOA rate Lamar and Bridgewater as virtually equal.  Other than 2019, DYAR and DVOA are not kind to Jackson.  I will save more details for an end of season discussion with regards to my opinion of individual DVOA and DYAR.

Lamar > Bridgewater, period.

The Ravens are 6-2, and had Tennessee lost last night, hold the number 1 seed in the AFC.  This Ravens team is hardly worthy of a number 1 seed (not that TEN is either), they have had 5 coins toss games (Raiders, Chiefs, Lions, Colts, Vikings) and won 4 of them.  The narrative of this team would be quite different with only 2 or 3 of these wins. 

Regardless of wins the Ravens are a good team by DVOA.  Put in mediocre Joe Flacco in his prime and this team struggles to reach mediocrity. 

Bottom line, Lamar is massively underrated, he is under constant siege, as virtually all front 7's destroy the Ravens O-Line in the passing game.  The running game consisting of 3 old geysers that don't fumble otherwise known as the 2016 number 1 fantasy picks, is hardly a viable alternative to giving the ball to Lamar on virtually every play.  The only games in which the non-Lamar running game was effective was against number 32 LAC, and yesterday against number 20 MIN in rushing DVOA defense.

168 I pretty much agree

Lamar has definitely been part of the reason Baltimore has had so many big deficits, but he’s also the main reason they’ve won a bunch of those games and now sit at 6-2 (Tucker is a close second).

Still needs to grow as a passer, but there’s reason to be optimistic considering the injury luck and the young receiving core. Numbers don’t tell the whole story for Lamar. 
 

89 So long snappers do matter…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

So long snappers do matter. Of course Bojorquez hasn't helped doesn't look like he even tried to spin the ball to get the laces right.

So I'm not sure I'm putting this on Crosby. I am putting it on the perpetual lack of good special teams coaching and player acquistion though. 

Also agree with your later post to just give on up FG and go for it. XP could be an issue too.

So yeah, your starting QB is a moron and gets himself ruled out for no good reason because he knew what his employer required. You can't have your special teams completely fall apart. Even if Love settles down for the rest of this game and his career turns out to be yet another HoF QB in GB you can't fucking kneecap yourself like that.

93 Ironic

Coming off the first week Hunter Bradley was cut (never draft special teams, #NDST)

IDK how things were going in practice for the LS but surely someone will call them out on going the cheap route for their ST coordinator...right? No? Juist me?

 

97 No I've been bitching about…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

No I've been bitching about the ST coordinators for, I was going to say years, but it's actually over a decade now. Learning about the self imposed coaching salaries this off season just makes it all worse too. Let's take one area we can actually use money to help improve, in a game where advantages at the margins can be huge, and gimp ourselves.

After that debacle of a "punt return" special teams is going to spot KC 13 points on the road. Maybe it will only be 9. But that's a great thing to do for your QB starting his first game....

Stupid front office.

98 Me and you is all.

Yeah, the self cap explains, looking back, their moves but man is it dumb to limit yourself in the one area that doesn't have a salary cap. I can't imagine these franchises are that cash strapped. Rizzi did get a job that same offseason. 

Only spotted 10. Well now 13. 

Stupid front office? How dare you say that, I'll have you know that they only used two picks on ST in 2018! Only 2! Granted they aren't on the team anymore...

85 Alright

No more kicking FGs. Packers need to just go for it on every 4th.

Went around Dennis Kelly? Man there was hype for him this offseason from my packers group

95 Good overturn

Packers imploding.

Darren Rizzi laughing at our demise

99 Man, 79 yards on 24 pass…

Man, 79 yards on 24 pass attempts at the half. The Chiefs passing offense really is a mess. Earlier in the season they were struggling with turnovers but still moved the ball easily and scored a ton of points. No longer.

100 An embarrassing defensive…

An embarrassing defensive performance by the 49ers this afternoon against a severely short-handed Cardinals team. Bad look for Shanahan and co. 

123 Maybe give Arizona credit?

They have a much better team than the bottom-dwelling Niners, even without Murray or Hopkins.

Team is stacked with talent across all levels.

Conner leading the NFL in TD's?

Who saw that coming?

105 Nightmare

2nd year 1st (& 4th) rounder Love picked by 2nd year 4th rounder Sneed. 

Absolute nightmare for GB today.

 

106 The Chiefs D has arguably…

The Chiefs D has arguably performed better than the offense today... I would not have expected that to ever occur after the way the first few weeks of the season went.

110 Kyle Shanahan catching heat rn

At some point his record has to matter right? He can't have the worst injury luck in the world can he? 

112 I only saw the 4th quarter…

I only saw the 4th quarter of the Packers game, but from what I saw, Jordan Love... could've been worse, I guess. The INT being caught was bad luck but it was a badly thrown ball, and in general he seemed both inaccurate and to have no touch. To be fair he had no time to throw because KC appeared to be blitzing practically every down, and the Packers' blocking wasn't handling it all that well. And given that, he only got sacked once, completed a reasonable percentage, and didn't do anything preposterously stupid, which puts him ahead of some more experienced QBs who started today.

Those were pretty favorable circumstances for him, though. Low expectations, no real pressure with a multi-game lead in the division, and KC's defense is terrible. Yet they only managed 7 points. Sounds like they could've had 6 more with better special teams, but I can't imagine a healthy Rodgers putting up fewer than 20 against those jokers.

It's just one game, obviously. Maybe he'll be amazing. But this was a little underwhelming.

121 He got better as the game…

He got better as the game went on, but he was never good. KC blitzed a lot and while some of those blitzes would have gotten Rodgers or caused him to throw it away like Love did, there were several where my thought was, Rodgers would have found Adams/Lazard/MVS/Cobb on that play and burned that blitz. I agree that everything else being equal replacing Rodgers with Love, leaving in the special team issues, same injuries that Rodgers wins this game 28-7.

Some of what I saw from Love was, especially with Adams, was that it looks like he had never thrown in him the ball (which with Adams only getting back to practice on Friday and not playing preseason could be true). There was another play where Tonyan being out and the other TE being pretty poor jumped out at me as one where Love made the right decision but the receiver failed him. As mentioned he faced a lot of pressure and didn't deal with it great. LaFleur did try to adjust protections and play calls to help but KC did a good job of throwing different looks. There was a snap where it looked like Love was actually going up to the center to change a play and the center snapped it. I think that was in part because he didn't deal with the noise correctly. I think he made the right decision that the call wasn't going to work but didn't execute it for the conditions. So that was all kind of the "first start" issues.

There were a few incorrect decisions, but nothing really awful. There was a lot of off target throws, some because of the pressure, but not all.

The special teams was awful with the two poor snaps and the holder not adjusting well and then a punt returner not getting out of the way and giving KC the ball at like the 12. It was very similar to Zona return man not getting out of the way last week and giving GB an easy position.

The defense did play well, they actually made plays but KC had way more self inflicted wounds on offense than the Zona game. The game was low scoring not because of good to great defenses but more because of decent defensive play and bad offenses. KC was bad, GB was bad. Contrast with the Arizona game where the offenses when they were stopped or slowed were stopped or slowed by the opposing defense and not self inflicted wounds.

Still Love was put in a position to win his first start, he's had a year and a half to prepare, and he failed. Given all that I'd give his performance a D. It's not that he's hopeless but the defense made up for the shitty special teams, and while the offense has injuries and is playing a lot of sub optimal players on the offensive line that combination has played nearly 3 full games together.

I fully expect Quick Reads to have Love as the worst QB in the NFL on 3rd downs this week. I think he was 3-10 for 23, with 1 conversion, a sack, a fumble (aborted snap might not be a fumble for DVOA), and the INT. It was bad. But I'd have to dig through the play-by-play again to confirm.

 

122 As I said last week.

The Cardinals loss to the Packers was not huge.  Packers will be losing several more games.  I don't see a #1 seed in play for them.

What we learned this week is that Jordan Love is absolutely not ready to be an NFL starter.

Even with Rodgers coming back, your schedule is brutal...

124 "brutal"

Next 3 before bye:

vs a hobbled Russ, maybe

@ a reeling Cousins

vs a getting pounded rn Rams that we already beat this calendar year

 

Still pending SNF, the Packers have the 26th hardest remaining SOS

You need to stop talking. 

113 Is Stafford drunk? Sacks on…

Is Stafford drunk? Sacks on consecutive plays when he couldn't be bothered to move, now a Darnold-esque pick to "avoid" a safety.

UPDATE: And now a pick-six on the very next throw. Definitely drunk, and it's possible someone spiked the punch with LSD too.

117 Von Miller trade

Pretty...pretty lopsided since it went down. Lol

But why did the Rams waste a timeout here?

120 Impressed with Tennessee.

Since being whacked by my Cardinals in Week 1, they'e picked themselves back up and are now a serious contender in the AFC.

Their D-line is mauling the Rams.  We haven't seen the Rams manhandled like that this year.

Matt Stafford playing like Lions-beta version that we remember.

This game might be over in the first half.

 

125 This Is Not An Attack on DVOA

I've had my issues-- but the truth is, nobody knows anything about this league,

We think CIN is good, then they're terrible two weeks in a row;

DALL is real good, then they are humiliated at home by a mediocre DEN team

BUFF is one of the best teams by DVOA ever, until they're not...and lose to one of the worst teams ever

NO is, even without their QB, surely much better than ATL, which has been worst team in league much of year by DVOA, but then they aren't

GB is so so mediocre but they beat ARIZ without half their starters, and might have beaten KC without their MVP but for a horrific special team performance

RAMS-- must be them, right/ And they're getting killed at home by a team DVOA has had in the bottom half all season.

Maybe it's just a Belichick-Brady world and the NE/TB Super Bowl is gonna happen whether we like it or not...

128 McVay

Are you kidding kicking FG from 4 trailing 21-3

129 Wha...

Holy crap McVay CONTINUES to be awful on 4th downs.

133 McVay believes in his offense.

 

That's why he kicked the FG.  He thinks he can make up the points later.

The problem is that his O-line is getting beaten up by the Titans D-line.

Unfortunately, they just kicked another FG.

FG's aren't winning this game.